Sorry this was early but I have to find my Lederhosen for this weekend's Octoberfest celebration. Prost!
Next up for the 2022 season are the Minnesota Golden Gophers for their homecoming game.
Taking a look at the size and experience of the Minnesota Lines and LBs and seeing how they match up against Purdue's equivalents.
- Experienced and BIG. The Minnesota O-line won’t be the largest group that Purdue will face in 2022 coming in at 318.0 lbs., (Syracuse has that honor at 330.0lbs) but they will be the largest in the B10. Only one starter returns but Minnesota has replaced them with a number of upperclassmen, thus as a group, their experience is well above average with 3.6 years of experience. The only B10 team more experienced is Michigan (3.8 years). Collectively, they have 64 career starts.
- This week’s Purdue’s projected D-Line (Sullivan, Johnson, Dean, Jenkins) averages about 285.0 lbs, up about 2.5lbs from last year’s. They will be outweighed by the Minnesota line by about 33.0 lbs per man on average. Purdue’s average experience is 3.5 years, up a full year from last year’s line. As a unit they have 69 collective starts with Sullivan the only one with single digit starts.
- Purdue’s projected LBs (Kane, Douglas, Brothers) come in at 225.0 lbs, down slightly from last year and are at 3.33 years of experience, the same as last season. With Grahm being out and Kane taking his place, the number of starts drops dramatically and they now have a collective 25 starts between them.
- Purdue’s projected O-line (Miller, Holstege, Hartwig, Mbow, Craig) will average 308.0 lbs per man, up by 2.0 lbs from last year’s 306.0 lbs. They average 2.8 years of experience, down slightly from last season’s 3.0 years. Collectively, they have a decent number of starts with 70. I’ve penciled in Craig here but if he can’t go, the line size stays the same, the experience moves up to 3.0 years and the number of starts would actually increase by one (counting his Kent State experience)
- Minnesota plays a 4-2-5 scheme so no adjustments need for comparison sake along the D-Line. At 281.25 lbs, they will right at the average for units Purdue will face this season and also for the B10 overall. With a 3.25 year average of experience, they will slightly above average for both teams that Purdue will face as well as the B10. Two players are multi-year returning starters and one additional has about a year of starting experience. They’ll be outweighed by Purdue’s O-line by 26.75 lbs per man. As mentioned, they’re largely returning starters so they’ll have a good 60 starts between them.
- The Minnesota LBs will drop a Safety into the LB position against spread teams (which I expect them to do on Saturday). Even so, they will be above average sized for both Purdue opponents and the B10 coming in at an average of 228.3 lbs. They will also be one of the more experienced groups with 3.67 years at the position and have 46 starts between them. Note, though, that their MLB (Sori-Marin) has 31 of those starts. The other LB, Oliver, has an additional 12 with the Safety/LB (Dixon) with 3.
Vegas opened up at Purdue +7. It’s now +12.5 with O/U at 53.0 (Note: I use VegasInsider for my line info. Other sites may vary)
MasseyRatings predicts a 30.21 Minnesota win
Sagarin predicts a 8.61 point Minnesota win using his “Golden Mean” rating (which is what I use). Note, it’s a 19.8 point spread using his “Recent” formula.
CollegeFootballPoll predicts a 7.42 point Minnesota win.
Compughter Ratings predicts a 34-23 Minnesota win.
CollegeFootballNews predicts a 34-17 Minnesota win.
For those of you who care about recruiting ratings, here are the starter’s Rivals ratings:
Purdue…………………… Minnesota
QB O’Connell NR………. Morgan 3*
RB Dorue 3*...................... Ibrahim 3*
WR Rice 4*..........……….. D. Jackson
WR Jones 2*…............... Brown-Stephens 3*
WR Sheffield 3*.............. Geary N/R
TE Durham 3*................. Spann-Ford 3*
LT Miller 3*..................... Ersery 3*
LG Holstege 2*................ A. Ruschmeyer N/R
C Hartwig 4*.................... Schmitz 3*
RG Mbow 3*.................... Filiaga 4* (Michigan)
RT Craig 3*...................... Carroll 4* (Notre Dame)
DE Sullivan 3*................... Rush *3 (LB)
DT Johnson 3*……………Trill Carter N/R
DT Dean 3*….................. Baugh N/R (Houston Baptist)
DE/LB Jenkins 3*............. Logan-Redding 3*
LB Brothers 3*....……...... Sori-Marin 3*
LB Douglas 3* …………. Oliver 3*
LB/ROV Graham 3*...…. Dixon 3*
CB Trice 3*.........……...... Walley 3*
CB Brown 3*.................... Terell Smith 4* (ATH)
FS Allen 3*......…….…..... Howden N/R
SS Jefferson NR................ Nubin 4*
Minnesota is coming in to the game with an unblemished 4-0 record after taking apart Michigan State in East Lansing last weekend.
That 4-0 start should have an asterisk next to it as Minnesota is proud owner of the 177th easiest schedule (Sagarin Ratings) which is the worst for a Power 5 school (BTW, Michigan sits at 176th) And, while their win against Michigan State looked good on paper, time will tell if MSU is closer to the 11-2 team they fielded last season or to the 2-5 team in Mel Tucker’s first season.
Regardless of the competition (or lack thereof), Minnesota has performed well so far on both sides of the ball.
As you may know, Minnesota rehired OC Kirk Ciarrocca who had left in 2020 to go to PSU (which didn’t work out) based on the strength of Minnesota’s offensive performance during the 2019 season. Following Ciarrocca’s departure Tanner Morgan, the 6th year Minnesota QB, had not seen the production he experienced during Ciarrocca’s tenure.
Now that they are once again reunited and running the RPO offense, Morgan’s stats have improved considerably, as shown in his Pass Efficiency numbers below:
2019 – 178.70
2020 – 128.15
2021 – 134.28
2022 – 198.13
Helping Minnesota’s offense is the return of 6th year RB, Mo Ibrahim, who has returned to form following an Achilles Tendon injury in the first game of the 2021 season. He’s never been below 5.3 yards per carry for a season and currently is averaging 6.37 ypc.
While it did not make a difference in their game against Michigan State, Minnesota did lose their top wideout in 6th year Chris Autman-Bell. Autman Bell, if you’ll recall, “caught” Minnesota’s lone TD pass in last year’s game where Purdue lost by a TD.
All in all, Minnesota’s offense is helped by the Covid Year extra eligibility as five starters on offense (was six with Autman-Bell) are 6th year players. In addition to the top passer, top running back and top receiver, three of the five O-Linemen are 6th year players.
The combination has thrusted Minnesota into the #3 spot in Total Offense nationally (2nd in Conference). The Rushing Offense is ranked #2 Nationally and Pass Efficiency is ranked 7th.
3rd Down Conversion rate is an astonishing 78.85% and leads the nation, what’s more, it’s over 12% higher than the team ranked #2 (Kansas at 66.67%)
Scoring Offense is ranked 11th and Red Zone Offense ranked 15th. While slight, the difference in Total Offense to Scoring Offense could be explained by the lower RZ Offense as well as a modest (but positive) Turnover Ratio (+0.75).
Defensively, Minnesota is performing even better coming into Saturday’s contest ranked #1 in Total Defense, #3 Rush Defense and 9th in Pass Efficiency Defense.
Scoring Defense is ranked #2 Nationally so it’s on par with Total Defense and Red Zone Defense is ranked 10th Nationally.
Again, Minnesota has not played a difficult schedule (Their opponents are 3-10 collectively with wins over Hawai’i, Western Michigan and Akron so again, a grain of salt.)
Purdue’s offense, ranked 48th nationally, will be the best Minnesota will have faced (New Mexico St. 125th, Colorado 126th, MSU 85th. Obviously, O’Connell’s availability will have an impact.
Rushing Offense, as one might expect, ranks 91st while Pass Efficiency is right at average, 65th. Scoring Offense ranks 43rd and Red Zone offense is a good 23rd Nationally. Having the Scoring Offense higher than Total Offense is a plus, but is largely a result of the two defensive scores.
Should O’Connell not be able to go, it will be interesting to see how Purdue manages the QB spot.
Having what is likely a full week running with the #1’s, the timing between Burton and the receivers should improve. And, even though he’s a Senior, getting the start and extended playing time should have shook some of the rust off of Burton’s play. In other words, I expect Burton’s performance will improve. As it was, his QB Efficiency was 147.7 for the game (for comparison, O’Connell’s rating against Syracuse was similar at 150.0).
And, while Burton did not challenge the secondary with the deep pass, it could very well be that with limited practice time, the coaching staff felt it best to play it close to the vest and not attempt higher risk passes. We’ll see if Purdue tries more deep passes this week.
The addition of Burton and the option did provide a spark to the running game with Purdue breaking 200 yards on the ground, the most against a D1 opponent this year and not replicated since the 2018 season when it broke that mark on three occasions.
Would like to see Burton run the option more but the double edged sword there is that a running QB invites injury and unless the coaches feel comfortable with the backups, they may limit Burton’s exposure to hits.
Purdue’s defense continues to be a bright spot, ranked 32nd this week in Total Defense. Purdue’s run defense has been much improved holding opposing running backs to no more than 52 yards in a game. The athletic Syracuse and FAU QBs did gain yardage scrambling but, while Minnesota’s Morgan is mobile, and will run, he likely doesn’t pose the same threat as the other two. Having Graham back at LB would certainly help here.
One aspect that could use some improvement is in Pass Defense where Purdue is again, in the middle of the D1 pack ranked at 65th in Pass Defense Efficiency. Getting some players back healthy would help here as well, allowing some rest for the regulars.
Scoring Defense is also a bit above average at 61st but Red Zone Defense is much better ranked 25th.
Again, considering the competition that Purdue has played, and other have not, I think those rankings may tend to improve over the season.
Penalties still continue to be an issue. After being one of the least penalized teams in the country in 2021, Purdue is now one of the most penalized teams in the county being ranked #102nd in Penalties per Game and #123rd in Penalty Yards Per Game. Both, however are improvements over last week. Something to watch.
Minnesota on the other hand, is at the opposite end of the spectrum with rankings of #11 in Penalties Per Game and 15th in Penalty Yards Per Game. Not being involved in tight games or playing on the road (other than MSU) helps.
Looking back to the 2019 Purdue-Minnesota contest, Minnesota looked ripe for the taking. They needed a late TD to win against South Dakota State (28-21), had to go Overtime to win against Fresno State and scored with 13 seconds left to beat Georgia Southern 35-32.
Nothing they had shown that season would indicate their ability to race out to a 28-10 half-time of 38-14 3rd quarter lead before Purdue made it close only to lose 38-31.
Go back a year earlier and the 2018 game also featured a Jekyll and Hyde performance, this time from Minnesota’s defense. Giving up over 41 points per game to B10 opponents, they held Purdue to just 10 on a snowy, cold November in Minneapolis (FWIW, they held Wisconsin to 15 at Madison two weeks later).
Even last season, immediately prior to their game with Purdue, Minnesota lost a contest with Bowling Green as a double-digit favorite.
Point of the above is that the Gopher’s play has shown the ability to be hot and cold and their performance turning on a dime. In 2019, it went from bad to good. Perhaps in 2022, it will reverse course.
And, while I don’t want to root for an injury, there would be some feeling of justice if somehow, Morgan and Ibrahim get knocked out of Saturday’s game on the same play early in the game. For that matter, I wouldn’t mind seeing an egregious call by a ref swinging the game to Purdue (and not be overturned).
The fact is, over the past three games, 17 point is all that separates Purdue’s Losses from Minnesota’s Wins. And, while this game will be tough, it’s not the same as when Purdue plays Wisconsin (41 point differential over past three games).
Weather looks to be good on Saturday with temperatures at kickoff in the low-70’s/high 60’s. Light wind of 9mph and 5% change of precipitation.
In addition to Homecoming, this game has been targeted as a “Stripe Out” game (alternating sections dressed in Maroon or (what they call) Gold.
Huntington Bank Stadium has field turf so it should be a fast track for both teams.
One positive note about the game time. Not only is an early game (11:00am local), it will also be the earliest in the season that a Brohm led Purdue team will have played in Minnesota.
Minnesota and Purdue have played twice on October 1st, one of which was at Minnesota. Purdue is 2-0 in those contests. They however have never won at (what is now) Huntington Bank Stadium (0-6) and going winless in Minneapolis since 2007.
Game is being televised on ESPN2 where Purdue is 0-1 this season (Syracuse) and Purdue under Brohm is 6-6. Minnesota, on the other hand is 1-0 this season and 6-2 under Fleck on the channel. Good news is that Beth Mowens will not be on the call.
Let’s play football!
Next up for the 2022 season are the Minnesota Golden Gophers for their homecoming game.
Taking a look at the size and experience of the Minnesota Lines and LBs and seeing how they match up against Purdue's equivalents.
- Experienced and BIG. The Minnesota O-line won’t be the largest group that Purdue will face in 2022 coming in at 318.0 lbs., (Syracuse has that honor at 330.0lbs) but they will be the largest in the B10. Only one starter returns but Minnesota has replaced them with a number of upperclassmen, thus as a group, their experience is well above average with 3.6 years of experience. The only B10 team more experienced is Michigan (3.8 years). Collectively, they have 64 career starts.
- This week’s Purdue’s projected D-Line (Sullivan, Johnson, Dean, Jenkins) averages about 285.0 lbs, up about 2.5lbs from last year’s. They will be outweighed by the Minnesota line by about 33.0 lbs per man on average. Purdue’s average experience is 3.5 years, up a full year from last year’s line. As a unit they have 69 collective starts with Sullivan the only one with single digit starts.
- Purdue’s projected LBs (Kane, Douglas, Brothers) come in at 225.0 lbs, down slightly from last year and are at 3.33 years of experience, the same as last season. With Grahm being out and Kane taking his place, the number of starts drops dramatically and they now have a collective 25 starts between them.
- Purdue’s projected O-line (Miller, Holstege, Hartwig, Mbow, Craig) will average 308.0 lbs per man, up by 2.0 lbs from last year’s 306.0 lbs. They average 2.8 years of experience, down slightly from last season’s 3.0 years. Collectively, they have a decent number of starts with 70. I’ve penciled in Craig here but if he can’t go, the line size stays the same, the experience moves up to 3.0 years and the number of starts would actually increase by one (counting his Kent State experience)
- Minnesota plays a 4-2-5 scheme so no adjustments need for comparison sake along the D-Line. At 281.25 lbs, they will right at the average for units Purdue will face this season and also for the B10 overall. With a 3.25 year average of experience, they will slightly above average for both teams that Purdue will face as well as the B10. Two players are multi-year returning starters and one additional has about a year of starting experience. They’ll be outweighed by Purdue’s O-line by 26.75 lbs per man. As mentioned, they’re largely returning starters so they’ll have a good 60 starts between them.
- The Minnesota LBs will drop a Safety into the LB position against spread teams (which I expect them to do on Saturday). Even so, they will be above average sized for both Purdue opponents and the B10 coming in at an average of 228.3 lbs. They will also be one of the more experienced groups with 3.67 years at the position and have 46 starts between them. Note, though, that their MLB (Sori-Marin) has 31 of those starts. The other LB, Oliver, has an additional 12 with the Safety/LB (Dixon) with 3.
Vegas opened up at Purdue +7. It’s now +12.5 with O/U at 53.0 (Note: I use VegasInsider for my line info. Other sites may vary)
MasseyRatings predicts a 30.21 Minnesota win
Sagarin predicts a 8.61 point Minnesota win using his “Golden Mean” rating (which is what I use). Note, it’s a 19.8 point spread using his “Recent” formula.
CollegeFootballPoll predicts a 7.42 point Minnesota win.
Compughter Ratings predicts a 34-23 Minnesota win.
CollegeFootballNews predicts a 34-17 Minnesota win.
For those of you who care about recruiting ratings, here are the starter’s Rivals ratings:
Purdue…………………… Minnesota
QB O’Connell NR………. Morgan 3*
RB Dorue 3*...................... Ibrahim 3*
WR Rice 4*..........……….. D. Jackson
WR Jones 2*…............... Brown-Stephens 3*
WR Sheffield 3*.............. Geary N/R
TE Durham 3*................. Spann-Ford 3*
LT Miller 3*..................... Ersery 3*
LG Holstege 2*................ A. Ruschmeyer N/R
C Hartwig 4*.................... Schmitz 3*
RG Mbow 3*.................... Filiaga 4* (Michigan)
RT Craig 3*...................... Carroll 4* (Notre Dame)
DE Sullivan 3*................... Rush *3 (LB)
DT Johnson 3*……………Trill Carter N/R
DT Dean 3*….................. Baugh N/R (Houston Baptist)
DE/LB Jenkins 3*............. Logan-Redding 3*
LB Brothers 3*....……...... Sori-Marin 3*
LB Douglas 3* …………. Oliver 3*
LB/ROV Graham 3*...…. Dixon 3*
CB Trice 3*.........……...... Walley 3*
CB Brown 3*.................... Terell Smith 4* (ATH)
FS Allen 3*......…….…..... Howden N/R
SS Jefferson NR................ Nubin 4*
Minnesota is coming in to the game with an unblemished 4-0 record after taking apart Michigan State in East Lansing last weekend.
That 4-0 start should have an asterisk next to it as Minnesota is proud owner of the 177th easiest schedule (Sagarin Ratings) which is the worst for a Power 5 school (BTW, Michigan sits at 176th) And, while their win against Michigan State looked good on paper, time will tell if MSU is closer to the 11-2 team they fielded last season or to the 2-5 team in Mel Tucker’s first season.
Regardless of the competition (or lack thereof), Minnesota has performed well so far on both sides of the ball.
As you may know, Minnesota rehired OC Kirk Ciarrocca who had left in 2020 to go to PSU (which didn’t work out) based on the strength of Minnesota’s offensive performance during the 2019 season. Following Ciarrocca’s departure Tanner Morgan, the 6th year Minnesota QB, had not seen the production he experienced during Ciarrocca’s tenure.
Now that they are once again reunited and running the RPO offense, Morgan’s stats have improved considerably, as shown in his Pass Efficiency numbers below:
2019 – 178.70
2020 – 128.15
2021 – 134.28
2022 – 198.13
Helping Minnesota’s offense is the return of 6th year RB, Mo Ibrahim, who has returned to form following an Achilles Tendon injury in the first game of the 2021 season. He’s never been below 5.3 yards per carry for a season and currently is averaging 6.37 ypc.
While it did not make a difference in their game against Michigan State, Minnesota did lose their top wideout in 6th year Chris Autman-Bell. Autman Bell, if you’ll recall, “caught” Minnesota’s lone TD pass in last year’s game where Purdue lost by a TD.
All in all, Minnesota’s offense is helped by the Covid Year extra eligibility as five starters on offense (was six with Autman-Bell) are 6th year players. In addition to the top passer, top running back and top receiver, three of the five O-Linemen are 6th year players.
The combination has thrusted Minnesota into the #3 spot in Total Offense nationally (2nd in Conference). The Rushing Offense is ranked #2 Nationally and Pass Efficiency is ranked 7th.
3rd Down Conversion rate is an astonishing 78.85% and leads the nation, what’s more, it’s over 12% higher than the team ranked #2 (Kansas at 66.67%)
Scoring Offense is ranked 11th and Red Zone Offense ranked 15th. While slight, the difference in Total Offense to Scoring Offense could be explained by the lower RZ Offense as well as a modest (but positive) Turnover Ratio (+0.75).
Defensively, Minnesota is performing even better coming into Saturday’s contest ranked #1 in Total Defense, #3 Rush Defense and 9th in Pass Efficiency Defense.
Scoring Defense is ranked #2 Nationally so it’s on par with Total Defense and Red Zone Defense is ranked 10th Nationally.
Again, Minnesota has not played a difficult schedule (Their opponents are 3-10 collectively with wins over Hawai’i, Western Michigan and Akron so again, a grain of salt.)
Purdue’s offense, ranked 48th nationally, will be the best Minnesota will have faced (New Mexico St. 125th, Colorado 126th, MSU 85th. Obviously, O’Connell’s availability will have an impact.
Rushing Offense, as one might expect, ranks 91st while Pass Efficiency is right at average, 65th. Scoring Offense ranks 43rd and Red Zone offense is a good 23rd Nationally. Having the Scoring Offense higher than Total Offense is a plus, but is largely a result of the two defensive scores.
Should O’Connell not be able to go, it will be interesting to see how Purdue manages the QB spot.
Having what is likely a full week running with the #1’s, the timing between Burton and the receivers should improve. And, even though he’s a Senior, getting the start and extended playing time should have shook some of the rust off of Burton’s play. In other words, I expect Burton’s performance will improve. As it was, his QB Efficiency was 147.7 for the game (for comparison, O’Connell’s rating against Syracuse was similar at 150.0).
And, while Burton did not challenge the secondary with the deep pass, it could very well be that with limited practice time, the coaching staff felt it best to play it close to the vest and not attempt higher risk passes. We’ll see if Purdue tries more deep passes this week.
The addition of Burton and the option did provide a spark to the running game with Purdue breaking 200 yards on the ground, the most against a D1 opponent this year and not replicated since the 2018 season when it broke that mark on three occasions.
Would like to see Burton run the option more but the double edged sword there is that a running QB invites injury and unless the coaches feel comfortable with the backups, they may limit Burton’s exposure to hits.
Purdue’s defense continues to be a bright spot, ranked 32nd this week in Total Defense. Purdue’s run defense has been much improved holding opposing running backs to no more than 52 yards in a game. The athletic Syracuse and FAU QBs did gain yardage scrambling but, while Minnesota’s Morgan is mobile, and will run, he likely doesn’t pose the same threat as the other two. Having Graham back at LB would certainly help here.
One aspect that could use some improvement is in Pass Defense where Purdue is again, in the middle of the D1 pack ranked at 65th in Pass Defense Efficiency. Getting some players back healthy would help here as well, allowing some rest for the regulars.
Scoring Defense is also a bit above average at 61st but Red Zone Defense is much better ranked 25th.
Again, considering the competition that Purdue has played, and other have not, I think those rankings may tend to improve over the season.
Penalties still continue to be an issue. After being one of the least penalized teams in the country in 2021, Purdue is now one of the most penalized teams in the county being ranked #102nd in Penalties per Game and #123rd in Penalty Yards Per Game. Both, however are improvements over last week. Something to watch.
Minnesota on the other hand, is at the opposite end of the spectrum with rankings of #11 in Penalties Per Game and 15th in Penalty Yards Per Game. Not being involved in tight games or playing on the road (other than MSU) helps.
Looking back to the 2019 Purdue-Minnesota contest, Minnesota looked ripe for the taking. They needed a late TD to win against South Dakota State (28-21), had to go Overtime to win against Fresno State and scored with 13 seconds left to beat Georgia Southern 35-32.
Nothing they had shown that season would indicate their ability to race out to a 28-10 half-time of 38-14 3rd quarter lead before Purdue made it close only to lose 38-31.
Go back a year earlier and the 2018 game also featured a Jekyll and Hyde performance, this time from Minnesota’s defense. Giving up over 41 points per game to B10 opponents, they held Purdue to just 10 on a snowy, cold November in Minneapolis (FWIW, they held Wisconsin to 15 at Madison two weeks later).
Even last season, immediately prior to their game with Purdue, Minnesota lost a contest with Bowling Green as a double-digit favorite.
Point of the above is that the Gopher’s play has shown the ability to be hot and cold and their performance turning on a dime. In 2019, it went from bad to good. Perhaps in 2022, it will reverse course.
And, while I don’t want to root for an injury, there would be some feeling of justice if somehow, Morgan and Ibrahim get knocked out of Saturday’s game on the same play early in the game. For that matter, I wouldn’t mind seeing an egregious call by a ref swinging the game to Purdue (and not be overturned).
The fact is, over the past three games, 17 point is all that separates Purdue’s Losses from Minnesota’s Wins. And, while this game will be tough, it’s not the same as when Purdue plays Wisconsin (41 point differential over past three games).
Weather looks to be good on Saturday with temperatures at kickoff in the low-70’s/high 60’s. Light wind of 9mph and 5% change of precipitation.
In addition to Homecoming, this game has been targeted as a “Stripe Out” game (alternating sections dressed in Maroon or (what they call) Gold.
Huntington Bank Stadium has field turf so it should be a fast track for both teams.
One positive note about the game time. Not only is an early game (11:00am local), it will also be the earliest in the season that a Brohm led Purdue team will have played in Minnesota.
Minnesota and Purdue have played twice on October 1st, one of which was at Minnesota. Purdue is 2-0 in those contests. They however have never won at (what is now) Huntington Bank Stadium (0-6) and going winless in Minneapolis since 2007.
Game is being televised on ESPN2 where Purdue is 0-1 this season (Syracuse) and Purdue under Brohm is 6-6. Minnesota, on the other hand is 1-0 this season and 6-2 under Fleck on the channel. Good news is that Beth Mowens will not be on the call.
Let’s play football!
Last edited:
