Coming off their victorious conference opener, Purdue now faces the 2-2 (0-1) Minnesota Gophers in the Matt Kukar Revenge Game (no indication that Kukar will be on the sidelines Saturday).
Taking a look at the size and experience of the Minnesota Lines and LBs and seeing how they match up against Purdue's equivalents. (Note: A number of teams on this season’s schedule have already factored in the player’s extra year of eligibility. Where possible, I’ve not done so in order to try and get a truer picture of each team’s experience. Thus, my numbers may not always jibe with other sites). Neither Purdue or Minnesota have released a 2-deep yet (Purdue’s should come out on Thursday) so I have made some educated guesses as to starters.
- After facing smaller lines in non-conference games, and an “average size” line last week, Purdue’s defense will now face a “jumbo” sized O-line, with the Minnesota’s O-Line average size coming in at 334.0 lbs. (By far, largest in the B10) This. like the Illinois line, is also a very experienced and mature with 4.0 years of experience. Collectively, they will have a collective 160 starts with the most inexperienced players (center and right guard) still both multi-year starters. The massive (6’9”, 380lb) right tackle, Faalele, returns this year after opting out last season. Last week, Minnesota moved Andries from LT to RG and replaced him with Schlueter. Dunlap was moved out of the starting lineup. They pickup a slight bump in experience and starts but a slight drop in size, all of which are reflected above.
- This week’s Purdue’s projected D-Line (Kalaftkis, Johnson, Dean, Mitchell) averages about 281.3 lbs, down 5.0lbs from last year’s 288.3 lbs due to missing Neal’s mass. That size puts them slightly below average for the B10. They will be outweighed by the Minnesota line by about 52.7 lbs per man on average. Purdue’s average experience is 3.25 years, up a half year to last year’s line. As a unit they have 46 collective starts.
- Purdue’s projected LBs (Graham, Alexander, Douglas) come in at 233.3 lbs, up slightly from last year and are at 3.67 years of experience, up from last season due to Douglas starting. Their size puts them in the upper tier of the B10 behind just Rutgers, Wisconsin and PSU. They have a collective 37 starts between them.
- Purdue’s projected O-line (Long, Holstege, Hartwig, Witt, Miller) will average 306.0 lbs per man, up by 5 lbs from last year’s 301.0 lbs. but still one of the smaller units in the B10 ahead of just Northwestern and Iowa. They average 3.00 years of experience, up nearly a half-year from last season’s 2.6 years. Collectively, they have a decent number of starts, in 89. Starting out last season, this group had a mere 36 starts so Purdue should be in much better shape this season.
- Minnesota features a 4-3 scheme with a stand-up DE. At 285.00 lbs, they are scheduled to be just over the average size of D-lines Purdue will face this season, just above UConn’s. Not quite as experienced as the O-Line counterparts, they come in with a solid 3.5 year average and will be outweighed by Purdue’s O-line by 21.00 lbs per man. With three multi-year starters, what was a young line previously, is now much more experienced and they’ll have 47 starts between them.
- Through their first four games, Minnesota has switched between starting a 3rd LB (Oliver) or a DB (Harris), but against Bowling Green they went with Oliver so I’m doing the same for comparison sake. With all three spots actually being LBs, the Minnesota LBs are the largest group in the B10 (tied with Rutgers) at 240.0 lbs., and just slightly larger than Oregon State’s, which obviously puts them well above average for teams Purdue will face this season. They fall behind the other two units in terms of experience but are still very experienced with an 3.33 years at the position and the collective starts are good at 42. Like Oregon State, this is a group that wants to stop the run. I would expect to see the DB Harris subbing in to counter Purdue’s receivers from time to time. Look to see Purdue try and exploit matchups when they don’t.
Vegas predicts Purdue by 2.5 points (Opened up at 3.0 points)
MasseyRatings predicts a 26-20 Purdue win
Sagarin predicts a 7.74 point Purdue win (Sagarin’s “Recent” model predicts a 10.23 point Purdue victory)
CollegeFootballPoll predicts a 2.09 point Minnesota win.
Unlike last week when there was some uniformity in the models and Vegas, this week there is some disagreement in point spread as well as one site predicting the winner.
For those of you who care about recruiting ratings, here are the starter’s Rivals ratings:
Purdue...........................Minnesota
QB Plummer 3*..............Morgan 3*
RB Dorue 3*…...............Potts 3*
WR Wright 4*.................Jackson 3*
WR Bell 4*.........………..Autman-Bell 3*
WR Sheffield 3*..............Brown-Stephens 3*
TE Durham 3*.................Kieft 2*
LT Long 2*.................….Schlueter 3*
LG Witt 2*...................... Olson 3*
C Hartwig 4*................... Schmitz 3*
RG Holstege 2*............. Andries 3*
RT Miller 3*.....................Faalele 4*
DE Mitchell 3*..................Otomewo 2*
DT Johnson 3*……….....….Pinckney 4* (Clemson)
DT Dean 3*…......................Carter 3*
DE/LB Karlaftis 4*............Rush 3*
LB Alexander 3*....…....... Gibbens NA (Abilene Christian)
LB Douglas 2* ……….....…Sori-Marin 3*
LB/S Graham 3*...…….…..Oliver 3*
CB Brown *.........……........T. Smith *
CB Mackey 3*...................Nubin 4*
FS Allen 3*......……….........Durr 3*
SS Grant 4*...................…Howden NA
For the first and only time this season, Purdue will play at home in back to back weekends. From here on out, it’s mostly alternating home and away games.
While they weren’t anywhere near dominant, Purdue is coming off a win against conference foe Illinois and sits atop the B10 West standings, tied with Iowa at 1-0. By kickoff, Purdue may very well be alone at the top as Iowa must travel to face Maryland on Friday night.
Following last year’s debacle and the fallout of the blown OPI call, it’s likely that the coaches and players alike have this game circled on their calendars (do people even use paper calendars any more?)
Minnesota comes into this game with more questions than answers. The Gophers lost top running back Ibrahim for the year in their season opener against Ohio State and top receiver Autmann-Bell has played sparingly, missing the first two games of the season and then being hurt on the first play of last week’s game against Bowling Green.
Speaking of the Bowling Green game, Bowling Green went into that game without a win over an FBS opponent since November 2, 2019 when they beat Akron. They had not won against a Power 5 schools since 2015 when they came into Ross-Ade and won 35-28 on a gloomy September afternoon.
So, as 30.5 point underdogs, the Falcons, led by former Boston College and Mater Dei (Santa Ana) QB Matt McDonald, outplayed Minnesota for much of the game eliciting a significant amount of boos from the Homecoming crowd. (Trivia Note: In McDonald’s Junior year of HS, he broke his foot the second game of the season and was replaced by….freshman JT Daniels, now the starting QB at Georgia. McDonald never saw the field again at Mater Dei and eventually transferred to Mission Viejo HS where he was recruited by Boston College).
By point spread, that game was the largest upset of the season.
The only consistent thing about Minnesota this year has been inconsistency. They manage to score 31 points against Ohio State in the opener but can only manage 10 points against Bowling Green. They give up 51 to that Ohio State squad but shut out a decent Colorado team on the road.
Two seasons ago, QB Tanner Morgan couldn’t miss with his passes being nearly perfect against Purdue as well as Penn State on the way to a 66% completion rate, 250 yards/game and a 178.70 QB rating. But, that was two seasons ago, as well as a different Offensive Coordinator ago. Gone is Kirk Ciarrocca who left following that season for Penn State (and subsequently fired after one season. Now, it’s Mike Sanford, Jr. directing the offense and things just haven’t been the same. That name might be familiar as he replaced a certain Jeff Brohm as HC of Western Kentucky once Brohm was named HC at Purdue. Prior to WKY, he directed the offense at Notre Dame.
This season, Morgan has had his difficulties. His completion percentage has dropped to 53.5% and his QB rating is the lowest of his career at 125.72. He has 3 TDs to go with 2 INTs (Both against BG). As opposed to 2019 when he had Tyler Johnson, Rashod Bateman and Chris Autman-Bell to throw to, only Autman-Bell remains and he’s only been able to play against Colorado and the first two plays against Bowling Green. While Minnesota has talent at WR behind Autman-Bell, it’s young and there hasn’t been anyone break out of the pack. Autman-Bell reportedly is back practicing but I would think his status is questionable. Even if he starts on Saturday, he may not be able to finish.
After Ibrahim went down late in their opener, their replacement RB, Potts has done a good job of taking up the slack. He’s not Ibrahim, who was a special talent, but Potts still has 474 yards (118.5/game) and a 4.9/ypc average on the season. Next highest carrier is Irvine with 97 yards and a 5.4/ypc average. Irvine, a true freshman, reportedly was considering flipping from Minnesota to Purdue last Fall but obviously stuck with the Gophers. While not a RB, Tanner Morgan is the next highest carrier with 23 attempts but factoring sacks, only has a 0.7/ypc average. Nonetheless, his mobility will need to be accounted for by the Purdue defense. In addition, Minnesota has used another QB, Kramer, as their Wildcat now that Ibrahim is out. Kramer scampered for a 19 yard TD against Bowling Green.
Part of Morgan’s issues have been the Offensive Line. While large and talented, they have also been wildly inconsistent, especially last week. The mammoth RT, Faalele, often looked more like a statue than a O-Linemen not being able to get in front of the Bowling Green rushers. He had similar issues during the 2019 season. He "opted out" of last season due to Covid concerns, so he may be a bit rusty. Also, in what turned out to be a key 4th down and 1 from Minnesota’s own 29 yard line, the entire interior of Minnesota’s line completely collapsed causing the runner to lose yardage and turn over the ball on downs. Bowling Green then took advantage of the field position to score their first TD. If I didn’t see the play with my own eyes, I wouldn’t have believed it. Unfortunately for Minnesota, Bowling Green was able to get defensive penetration through the Minnesota line frequently.
In addition, time and time again, Bowling Green confused the Minnesota line with stunts or blitzes, often from the DBs, to sack Morgan. While I’m sure Minnesota will work on that this week, look for Purdue to try and replicate some of that pressure.
For the season, Minnesota is ranked 105th nationally in Total Offense and 121st in Passing Offense, offset by being 26th in Rushing Offense. Passing Efficiency (94th) and Scoring Offense (93rd) are only slightly better.
Defensively, they’ve been much better (helped by their Colorado outing) coming in at 14th in Total Defense and #12 in Rushing Defense. Pass Efficiency Defense is more middle of the pack at 59th as is scoring defense at 53rd.
It was also interesting to watch Bowling Green on offense and see how Minnesota played them. Bowling Green by all accounts does not have a very good OL and used a lot of screens, tempo and quick plays to compensate (sound familiar?). Their QB, McDonald, also was mobile and was used frequently in the run/option game as well as scrambling to either buy time or gain yardage.
Purdue of course is without it’s top RB in Horvath and may be without its second RB in Doerue. It also remains to be seen the status of it’s top wideout in Bell but last week we saw a bit of the future with Yaseen catching three passes for 77 yards and Wright followed up a shaky game against ND with a solid performance gathering in 7 passes for 88 yards. Both his and Yaseen’s production will be needed regardless of Bell’s status. Purdue’s second leading target, TE Durham, is also questionable and likely a game time decision. Not to be forgotten is Anthrop. Often overlooked, the Super Senior is steady, has good hands and is where he’s supposed to be when he supposed to be there and in the absence of Durham and Bell is becoming a bit of the “go to” receiver.
The million dollar question is who will likely start at QB. Plummer has started all season but, while mistake free, has had trouble moving the team the past two games. O’Connell has replaced Plummer in those games and moved the ball, but has 4 INTS to just a single TD to show for it. Both are capable as has been shown. Plummer had perhaps one of the best games of his career last year at Minnesota throwing for 367 yards and 3 TDs (not including the blown call) to just 1 INT. On the other hand, O’Connell led the 94 yard, game winning drive last week.
While there’s much speculation that Brohm will make a change in the starter, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Plummer again begin the game under center. His mobility, if they take advantage of it, could be the deciding factor. However, if he does start, O’Connell will be waiting in the wings, and, as we know Brohm won't be afraid to make the change.
For the season, Purdue is ranked 64th nationally in Total Offense and 15th in Passing Offense, offset by being 119th in Rushing Offense, basically a mirror image to Minnesota. Passing Efficiency (54th) is a bit better but Scoring Offense (87th) is poor considering the rest of the offense.
Defensively, Purdue is much better (helped by their UConn outing) coming in at 30th in Total Defense. Their Rushing Defense is roughly middle of the pack at 53rd but Pass Efficiency Defense is stellar at 16th as is scoring defense at 8th nationally (NOT a typo).
Minnesota will be playing on natural grass for the second time this season (Colorado).
For some reason, Minnesota has been able to “flip the switch” when they get to the Purdue game. In 2018, their defense was atrocious enough to warrant them firing their DC immediately prior to the Purdue game. A change in voice and scheme was enough to shut down the Boilers (possibly assisted by Brohm to Louisville rumors). In 2019, Minnesota barely scraped by their non-conference schedule winning by a TD against South Dakota St, going to two OTs against Fresno State and winning by a FG against Georgia Southern before taking on the Boilers where they unleashed an offensive juggernaut winning 38-31. Then, last year they came into the game with a 1-3 record winning only against Illinois after getting doubled up by Michigan, losing to Maryland in OT and getting trounced at home by Iowa. We all recall what happened in the Purdue game as Purdue defense had a tough night.
This year they are also difficult to figure out. Let’s hope when they try and flip the switch on Saturday, the light doesn’t go on.
Weather for Saturday looks to be a 24% chance of rain and possible thunder showers. Purdue’s only win against Minnesota under Brohm occurred in 2017 when lightning caused a lengthy delay with the win sealed by a Ja’Whaun Bentley interception run back for a TD. Would like to see a similar outcome this week.
Let’s play football!
Taking a look at the size and experience of the Minnesota Lines and LBs and seeing how they match up against Purdue's equivalents. (Note: A number of teams on this season’s schedule have already factored in the player’s extra year of eligibility. Where possible, I’ve not done so in order to try and get a truer picture of each team’s experience. Thus, my numbers may not always jibe with other sites). Neither Purdue or Minnesota have released a 2-deep yet (Purdue’s should come out on Thursday) so I have made some educated guesses as to starters.
- After facing smaller lines in non-conference games, and an “average size” line last week, Purdue’s defense will now face a “jumbo” sized O-line, with the Minnesota’s O-Line average size coming in at 334.0 lbs. (By far, largest in the B10) This. like the Illinois line, is also a very experienced and mature with 4.0 years of experience. Collectively, they will have a collective 160 starts with the most inexperienced players (center and right guard) still both multi-year starters. The massive (6’9”, 380lb) right tackle, Faalele, returns this year after opting out last season. Last week, Minnesota moved Andries from LT to RG and replaced him with Schlueter. Dunlap was moved out of the starting lineup. They pickup a slight bump in experience and starts but a slight drop in size, all of which are reflected above.
- This week’s Purdue’s projected D-Line (Kalaftkis, Johnson, Dean, Mitchell) averages about 281.3 lbs, down 5.0lbs from last year’s 288.3 lbs due to missing Neal’s mass. That size puts them slightly below average for the B10. They will be outweighed by the Minnesota line by about 52.7 lbs per man on average. Purdue’s average experience is 3.25 years, up a half year to last year’s line. As a unit they have 46 collective starts.
- Purdue’s projected LBs (Graham, Alexander, Douglas) come in at 233.3 lbs, up slightly from last year and are at 3.67 years of experience, up from last season due to Douglas starting. Their size puts them in the upper tier of the B10 behind just Rutgers, Wisconsin and PSU. They have a collective 37 starts between them.
- Purdue’s projected O-line (Long, Holstege, Hartwig, Witt, Miller) will average 306.0 lbs per man, up by 5 lbs from last year’s 301.0 lbs. but still one of the smaller units in the B10 ahead of just Northwestern and Iowa. They average 3.00 years of experience, up nearly a half-year from last season’s 2.6 years. Collectively, they have a decent number of starts, in 89. Starting out last season, this group had a mere 36 starts so Purdue should be in much better shape this season.
- Minnesota features a 4-3 scheme with a stand-up DE. At 285.00 lbs, they are scheduled to be just over the average size of D-lines Purdue will face this season, just above UConn’s. Not quite as experienced as the O-Line counterparts, they come in with a solid 3.5 year average and will be outweighed by Purdue’s O-line by 21.00 lbs per man. With three multi-year starters, what was a young line previously, is now much more experienced and they’ll have 47 starts between them.
- Through their first four games, Minnesota has switched between starting a 3rd LB (Oliver) or a DB (Harris), but against Bowling Green they went with Oliver so I’m doing the same for comparison sake. With all three spots actually being LBs, the Minnesota LBs are the largest group in the B10 (tied with Rutgers) at 240.0 lbs., and just slightly larger than Oregon State’s, which obviously puts them well above average for teams Purdue will face this season. They fall behind the other two units in terms of experience but are still very experienced with an 3.33 years at the position and the collective starts are good at 42. Like Oregon State, this is a group that wants to stop the run. I would expect to see the DB Harris subbing in to counter Purdue’s receivers from time to time. Look to see Purdue try and exploit matchups when they don’t.
Vegas predicts Purdue by 2.5 points (Opened up at 3.0 points)
MasseyRatings predicts a 26-20 Purdue win
Sagarin predicts a 7.74 point Purdue win (Sagarin’s “Recent” model predicts a 10.23 point Purdue victory)
CollegeFootballPoll predicts a 2.09 point Minnesota win.
Unlike last week when there was some uniformity in the models and Vegas, this week there is some disagreement in point spread as well as one site predicting the winner.
For those of you who care about recruiting ratings, here are the starter’s Rivals ratings:
Purdue...........................Minnesota
QB Plummer 3*..............Morgan 3*
RB Dorue 3*…...............Potts 3*
WR Wright 4*.................Jackson 3*
WR Bell 4*.........………..Autman-Bell 3*
WR Sheffield 3*..............Brown-Stephens 3*
TE Durham 3*.................Kieft 2*
LT Long 2*.................….Schlueter 3*
LG Witt 2*...................... Olson 3*
C Hartwig 4*................... Schmitz 3*
RG Holstege 2*............. Andries 3*
RT Miller 3*.....................Faalele 4*
DE Mitchell 3*..................Otomewo 2*
DT Johnson 3*……….....….Pinckney 4* (Clemson)
DT Dean 3*…......................Carter 3*
DE/LB Karlaftis 4*............Rush 3*
LB Alexander 3*....…....... Gibbens NA (Abilene Christian)
LB Douglas 2* ……….....…Sori-Marin 3*
LB/S Graham 3*...…….…..Oliver 3*
CB Brown *.........……........T. Smith *
CB Mackey 3*...................Nubin 4*
FS Allen 3*......……….........Durr 3*
SS Grant 4*...................…Howden NA
For the first and only time this season, Purdue will play at home in back to back weekends. From here on out, it’s mostly alternating home and away games.
While they weren’t anywhere near dominant, Purdue is coming off a win against conference foe Illinois and sits atop the B10 West standings, tied with Iowa at 1-0. By kickoff, Purdue may very well be alone at the top as Iowa must travel to face Maryland on Friday night.
Following last year’s debacle and the fallout of the blown OPI call, it’s likely that the coaches and players alike have this game circled on their calendars (do people even use paper calendars any more?)
Minnesota comes into this game with more questions than answers. The Gophers lost top running back Ibrahim for the year in their season opener against Ohio State and top receiver Autmann-Bell has played sparingly, missing the first two games of the season and then being hurt on the first play of last week’s game against Bowling Green.
Speaking of the Bowling Green game, Bowling Green went into that game without a win over an FBS opponent since November 2, 2019 when they beat Akron. They had not won against a Power 5 schools since 2015 when they came into Ross-Ade and won 35-28 on a gloomy September afternoon.
So, as 30.5 point underdogs, the Falcons, led by former Boston College and Mater Dei (Santa Ana) QB Matt McDonald, outplayed Minnesota for much of the game eliciting a significant amount of boos from the Homecoming crowd. (Trivia Note: In McDonald’s Junior year of HS, he broke his foot the second game of the season and was replaced by….freshman JT Daniels, now the starting QB at Georgia. McDonald never saw the field again at Mater Dei and eventually transferred to Mission Viejo HS where he was recruited by Boston College).
By point spread, that game was the largest upset of the season.
The only consistent thing about Minnesota this year has been inconsistency. They manage to score 31 points against Ohio State in the opener but can only manage 10 points against Bowling Green. They give up 51 to that Ohio State squad but shut out a decent Colorado team on the road.
Two seasons ago, QB Tanner Morgan couldn’t miss with his passes being nearly perfect against Purdue as well as Penn State on the way to a 66% completion rate, 250 yards/game and a 178.70 QB rating. But, that was two seasons ago, as well as a different Offensive Coordinator ago. Gone is Kirk Ciarrocca who left following that season for Penn State (and subsequently fired after one season. Now, it’s Mike Sanford, Jr. directing the offense and things just haven’t been the same. That name might be familiar as he replaced a certain Jeff Brohm as HC of Western Kentucky once Brohm was named HC at Purdue. Prior to WKY, he directed the offense at Notre Dame.
This season, Morgan has had his difficulties. His completion percentage has dropped to 53.5% and his QB rating is the lowest of his career at 125.72. He has 3 TDs to go with 2 INTs (Both against BG). As opposed to 2019 when he had Tyler Johnson, Rashod Bateman and Chris Autman-Bell to throw to, only Autman-Bell remains and he’s only been able to play against Colorado and the first two plays against Bowling Green. While Minnesota has talent at WR behind Autman-Bell, it’s young and there hasn’t been anyone break out of the pack. Autman-Bell reportedly is back practicing but I would think his status is questionable. Even if he starts on Saturday, he may not be able to finish.
After Ibrahim went down late in their opener, their replacement RB, Potts has done a good job of taking up the slack. He’s not Ibrahim, who was a special talent, but Potts still has 474 yards (118.5/game) and a 4.9/ypc average on the season. Next highest carrier is Irvine with 97 yards and a 5.4/ypc average. Irvine, a true freshman, reportedly was considering flipping from Minnesota to Purdue last Fall but obviously stuck with the Gophers. While not a RB, Tanner Morgan is the next highest carrier with 23 attempts but factoring sacks, only has a 0.7/ypc average. Nonetheless, his mobility will need to be accounted for by the Purdue defense. In addition, Minnesota has used another QB, Kramer, as their Wildcat now that Ibrahim is out. Kramer scampered for a 19 yard TD against Bowling Green.
Part of Morgan’s issues have been the Offensive Line. While large and talented, they have also been wildly inconsistent, especially last week. The mammoth RT, Faalele, often looked more like a statue than a O-Linemen not being able to get in front of the Bowling Green rushers. He had similar issues during the 2019 season. He "opted out" of last season due to Covid concerns, so he may be a bit rusty. Also, in what turned out to be a key 4th down and 1 from Minnesota’s own 29 yard line, the entire interior of Minnesota’s line completely collapsed causing the runner to lose yardage and turn over the ball on downs. Bowling Green then took advantage of the field position to score their first TD. If I didn’t see the play with my own eyes, I wouldn’t have believed it. Unfortunately for Minnesota, Bowling Green was able to get defensive penetration through the Minnesota line frequently.
In addition, time and time again, Bowling Green confused the Minnesota line with stunts or blitzes, often from the DBs, to sack Morgan. While I’m sure Minnesota will work on that this week, look for Purdue to try and replicate some of that pressure.
For the season, Minnesota is ranked 105th nationally in Total Offense and 121st in Passing Offense, offset by being 26th in Rushing Offense. Passing Efficiency (94th) and Scoring Offense (93rd) are only slightly better.
Defensively, they’ve been much better (helped by their Colorado outing) coming in at 14th in Total Defense and #12 in Rushing Defense. Pass Efficiency Defense is more middle of the pack at 59th as is scoring defense at 53rd.
It was also interesting to watch Bowling Green on offense and see how Minnesota played them. Bowling Green by all accounts does not have a very good OL and used a lot of screens, tempo and quick plays to compensate (sound familiar?). Their QB, McDonald, also was mobile and was used frequently in the run/option game as well as scrambling to either buy time or gain yardage.
Purdue of course is without it’s top RB in Horvath and may be without its second RB in Doerue. It also remains to be seen the status of it’s top wideout in Bell but last week we saw a bit of the future with Yaseen catching three passes for 77 yards and Wright followed up a shaky game against ND with a solid performance gathering in 7 passes for 88 yards. Both his and Yaseen’s production will be needed regardless of Bell’s status. Purdue’s second leading target, TE Durham, is also questionable and likely a game time decision. Not to be forgotten is Anthrop. Often overlooked, the Super Senior is steady, has good hands and is where he’s supposed to be when he supposed to be there and in the absence of Durham and Bell is becoming a bit of the “go to” receiver.
The million dollar question is who will likely start at QB. Plummer has started all season but, while mistake free, has had trouble moving the team the past two games. O’Connell has replaced Plummer in those games and moved the ball, but has 4 INTS to just a single TD to show for it. Both are capable as has been shown. Plummer had perhaps one of the best games of his career last year at Minnesota throwing for 367 yards and 3 TDs (not including the blown call) to just 1 INT. On the other hand, O’Connell led the 94 yard, game winning drive last week.
While there’s much speculation that Brohm will make a change in the starter, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Plummer again begin the game under center. His mobility, if they take advantage of it, could be the deciding factor. However, if he does start, O’Connell will be waiting in the wings, and, as we know Brohm won't be afraid to make the change.
For the season, Purdue is ranked 64th nationally in Total Offense and 15th in Passing Offense, offset by being 119th in Rushing Offense, basically a mirror image to Minnesota. Passing Efficiency (54th) is a bit better but Scoring Offense (87th) is poor considering the rest of the offense.
Defensively, Purdue is much better (helped by their UConn outing) coming in at 30th in Total Defense. Their Rushing Defense is roughly middle of the pack at 53rd but Pass Efficiency Defense is stellar at 16th as is scoring defense at 8th nationally (NOT a typo).
Minnesota will be playing on natural grass for the second time this season (Colorado).
For some reason, Minnesota has been able to “flip the switch” when they get to the Purdue game. In 2018, their defense was atrocious enough to warrant them firing their DC immediately prior to the Purdue game. A change in voice and scheme was enough to shut down the Boilers (possibly assisted by Brohm to Louisville rumors). In 2019, Minnesota barely scraped by their non-conference schedule winning by a TD against South Dakota St, going to two OTs against Fresno State and winning by a FG against Georgia Southern before taking on the Boilers where they unleashed an offensive juggernaut winning 38-31. Then, last year they came into the game with a 1-3 record winning only against Illinois after getting doubled up by Michigan, losing to Maryland in OT and getting trounced at home by Iowa. We all recall what happened in the Purdue game as Purdue defense had a tough night.
This year they are also difficult to figure out. Let’s hope when they try and flip the switch on Saturday, the light doesn’t go on.
Weather for Saturday looks to be a 24% chance of rain and possible thunder showers. Purdue’s only win against Minnesota under Brohm occurred in 2017 when lightning caused a lengthy delay with the win sealed by a Ja’Whaun Bentley interception run back for a TD. Would like to see a similar outcome this week.
Let’s play football!
