We'll try this for another year.
Taking a look at the size and experience of the Marshall lines and LBs and seeing how they match up against Purdue's equivalents.
- Purdue’s defense will face a Marshall O-line which will be close to the average size of units that Purdue will face this year at 303.6 lbs. This is about 0.8 lbs per man larger than the average B10 line. They are however one of the less experienced groups at 2.8 years of experience. Three starters return from last year with one of those three moving positions this year (RG to C). The Herd will have 61 collective starts as a unit. One thing to note is that the average size is bolstered by the two OTs, both coming in at 322 lbs. The interior linemen are all below 300 lbs with the center and one of the guards coming in below 290lbs. Also worthy of note is that their Left Tackle and Center, arguably the two most important positions will be filled by new starters.
- This year’s Purdue’s D-Line (Panfil, Replogle, Watson, Miles) averages about 267.8 lbs, down about 7lbs from the 275 lbs average from last year. They will be outweighed by the Herd line by about 36.8 lbs per man on average. Purdue’s average experience is 3.00 years, identical to last year’s line when two Seniors started at DE. The size of this group will be below average for a B10 team and also slightly below average in terms of experience. As a unit they are very untested as going into Saturday they have 19 collective starts. When Henley is playing the size and experience level will increase to the point where they would be just slightly below average for a B10 team.
- This season Purdue is listing the Linebackers as a normal three LB set. Purdue’s LBs (Ezechukwo, Bentley, Herman) come in at 245.3 lbs but only 2.33 years of experience. That’s up over 3.0 lbs from last year and the collective experience is the same as the start of last year when Sean Robinson started in the middle. Though young, they have a collective 27 starts between them. Size wise, this group is one of the largest in the B10 but experience wise, they fall on the other side of the ledger and are tied for the youngest in the B10 (Nebraska, Minnesota).
- Purdue’s O-line (Hedelin, King, Kugler, Roos, Cermin) will average 302.2 lbs per man, down by 2.6 lbs from last year’s 304.8 lbs. This places them slightly below average in the B10. They average 3.40 years of experience which is (finally) slightly above average for the B10 where in prior years they have been one of the youngest lines in the B10. Collectively, this group has 81 starts among them. Kugler has the lion’s share (31) of those starts by himself. The start totals also don’t include Hedelin’s while he was a JUCO.
- At 269.8lbs, Marshall’s D-line will be one of the smaller D-Line Purdue will face this year. They will be well above average in terms of experience with a 3.75 year average. This will be the oldest line Purdue should face this year. They’ll be outweighed by Purdue’s O-line by 32.4lbs per man. They return one starter from last year and have a collective 22 starts between them.
- The Herd LBs comes in a little on the small side at 223.33 lbs. and is scheduled to be the 2nd smallest unit Purdue will face (Bowling Green). Their largest LB, the MLB is listed at 240lbs but in the depth chart is actually listed as an “or”. Should Marshall chose to start the alternate, the average size would be 212.67lbs. They do have decent experience with an average of 3.67 years at the position. Again, this will among be the smaller units that Purdue will face this year. Together they have 40 starts with one starter returning from last season and another starter returning from 2013, having sat out last season with a knee injury.
We now get to see Year 3 of the rebuilding process for Purdue football. This is the year where the recruiting, coaching and experience should all start to come together and the results show up on the field.
Sagarin is predicting a 9.94 point Purdue loss
Vegas opened up with Marshall favored by 7.5. (Line now as high as -8.5)
Compughter Ratings.com predicts a 41-25 Purdue loss
CollegeFootballPoll predicts a 15.48 point Purdue loss
MasseyRatings predicts a 38-24 Purdue loss.
CollegeFootballNews predicts a Purdue win but doesn’t list a score.
ESPN bloggers predictions have yet to come out.
Purdue has reportedly worked on becoming more of a spread team and one capable of varying tempos to keep opposing defenses off balance. If they can accomplish that, it could provide them an advantage in that there is no film available which shows them running that type of offense. On the other hand, that’s the same type of offense that Marshall runs so you would think their defense should be pretty well versed in defending it.
Whatever offense Purdue chooses to run, it has to be efficient and score. While I don’t expect Marshall to pick right up where they left off last season from an offensive perspective, they still have a good number of pieces left over from their 13 win season. Still, losing QB Cato, WR Shuler, TE Frohnaphle and C Jasperse is roughly akin to Purdue losing Brees, Stubblfield, Stratton and Hardwick all in one season and trying to replace them.
Last season’s stats showed Marshall to be decent to good from a defensive standpoint. They ranked 53rd in the nation in Run Defense; 22nd nationally in Pass Efficiency Defense and; 31st overall for Total Defense. However, I believe their offense last year had as much to do with their defense as did their actual defense.
When you look at the teams they faced, their opponents were below average collectively in running the ball. The best team they faced was UNI at #16 in Rush Offense, from there they faced MTSU (#30) and UAB (#31) but it really dropped off after that. The average Rushing Offense rank for their opponents came in at 71.33.
A second reason why Marshall's Rushing Defense might have looked better was Marshall's offense. As prolific and as sudden as Marshall was in scoring the ball, other teams generally had to abandon the run and become one-dimensional in their offense. I charted their games to determine yards per carry until the opponent got more than 14 points behind and teams averaged 4.69 yards per carry. Again, we’re not talking about heavy running teams, yet they still averaged very good yardage while the games were close.
The third reason, and one which dovetails into the above point, is that when opposing teams fell behind and had to pass more, it allowed Marshall's defense to really key in with their pass rush and generate a good number of sacks. Of course, unlike the NFL where sack yards are taken away from Pass Yards, the NCAA counts them as rushes, thereby reducing the yardage allowed total for the game. If you'd add back in the 254 yards Marshall got from their 38 sacks, their Rush Defensive rank would drop from 53rd to 78th last season. Even half of that yardage and their rush defense goes to about middle of the pack.
I haven’t been able to watch a lot of their film from last season but did catch Marshall against Northern Illinois in their bowl game where they had some trouble stopping runs right up the middle. The NIU O-line came in slightly older (3.6 v. 3.4 years) and slightly smaller (301.6lbs v. 302.2 lbs) than Purdue has this season but UNI’s line did have over 160 collective starts which is double what the Purdue line will start the season (81). In that game, Northern’s two main running backs each averaged over 5 yards per carry.
In other words, look for Purdue to try and establish the run early and, if smart, stay with it as long as possible. Marshall’s defense is a bit undersized but should compensate by being quick, thus I think you’ll want to see Purdue not try and run any slow developing plays but instead just quick hitters up the gut.
If all goes to plan, Marshall will have to commit an extra man in the box which should open up some play action passes to a single covered receiver. Marshall’s DBs are fairly experienced and all have good size but as long as the O-line can keep Appleby clean, Purdue’s wide outs should get some opportunities. It will then up to Appleby to make the most of them.
On defense, Purdue will have their work cut out for them. Marshall’s primary ball carrier is a huge, converted TE who comes in at 6’1” 240lbs (He’s reportedly “slimmed down” to 235lbs).
Again, while my viewing of Marshall has been limited, their scheme is pretty simple: count the men in the box and throw if it’s 7 or more; run if it’s 6 or less. Johnson gained most of his yards against nickel defenses where the offense could match up with the defense hat on hat. Make no mistake, Johnson is fast in the open field and with his size, is a load to bring down. Purdue’s defense will need to make sure and take proper angles when he is running as his speed is deceptively quick. An easy comparison for Johnson is Western Michigan’s Jarvion Franklin (6’0” 220lbs) who gashed Purdue in last year’s opener for163 yards on just 19 carries. Purdue can’t afford a similar performance this year.
While Purdue's Rushing Defense wasn't statistically good last year(Ranked 91st) it’s important to note that the average of Purdue's opponents Rushing Offense rank was 49.55th. Purdue actually held 8 of their 12 opponents to below or very near their season rushing averages. They just happened to face a lot of good rushing teams.
The Offensive Coordinator for Marshall should be a familiar name in Bill Legg who was a coach and OC at Purdue prior to Hope taking over. Over the past three years, Legg has been credited with heading up one of the most prolific offenses in the country and was listed as the top 3rd down play caller over those past three years.
Of course, those last three years are also when Cato was a Sophomore, Junior and Senior at Marshall, so how has he done when he hasn’t had Cato in those years? Glad you asked. Legg has been the OC at West Virginia (2000), Purdue (2006-2007), Florida International (2008-2009) and Marshall (2010-2014) or a total of 10 years. Overall, his teams have averaged 407.92 yards per game and his national Total Offensive rank has been 53.4th with Scoring Offense rank at 48.9th. However, if you subtract these last three years from his performance, his average yards of offense drops to 355.05 (15% drop), Total Offense Rank goes to 73.4th and Scoring Offense goes to 67.4th. The Median is even worse at 333.38 yards, 96th in Total Offense and 68th in Scoring Offense. You’ll recall that while at Purdue, he had future NFL’er Curtis Painter heading up the offense.
Taking over for Cato this year is Michael Birdsong, a big, athletic (6’5” 241lb) QB with a big arm. He transferred in from 1-AA James Madison after his Sophomore season and sat out last year due to transfer rules so in essence, he’s a Senior in terms of experience. While he’s reportedly been a good addition to Marshall, there are still some questions surrounding him and his play.
His transfer came after a coaching change and he had been relegated to backup from the starter role he enjoyed his sophomore season. He was also not highly recruited out of High School although that, in itself, isn’t necessarily a condemnation on his talent level.
Again, as you might expect, game film on him is limited but from what I did observe was that he had good accuracy on those passes where he could zip the ball in to the receiver (slants, etc.) but had trouble on passes which required a bit of touch or those where he had to loft the ball over defender’s heads. In that way, he reminded me of a young Kyle Orton with a single speed (fastball) of delivery regardless of where his target was located.
His accuracy also dropped to near zero when he was flushed from the pocket and had to try to throw on the run. This was one area where Cato was deadly for Marshall last year as he was able to scramble around, keeping a play alive and being able to hit a receiver down field while on the move. Unless Birdsong has greatly improved in the last two years, it’s doubtful he’ll be able to match Cato in that ability while on the run. And speaking of running, due to his size and ability, he may get his name called on designated runs.
Marshall loses their top two receivers from last season but does return one starter and some top talent, most notably Foster who’ll take over for Shuler. If Birdsong and Foster start to connect early, look for Purdue to try and play Nickel moving Williams over the slot receiver (Foster).
My guess is that Purdue will either try and keep at least 7 in the box to combat Johnson and the run game and then try to get pressure on Birdsong to get him on the move. If Purdue’s corners can lock up the outside receivers one-on-one, it could allow Purdue to bring one of their safeties, most likely Gregory, down to help control Johnson and the Marshall running game. I also suspect that the threat of Johnson is one of the reasons that Gregory will get the start in Game 1 as he presents a much more physical presence than Roberts and can also play more like a LB should Purdue use their Nickel defense.
Purdue needs to get pressure from the D-line and not have to rely on blitz packages. While Miles is scheduled to start at one DE spot, it won’t surprise me to see Henley getting a good number of snaps, perhaps in obvious passing situations.
One thing I will be looking for from the first snap on is how much penetration the D-line is able to get on the Marshall line. It’s an aspect which we haven’t seen much from Purdue’s defense over the last few years but will be a telltale as to how much better they will be this year. Obviously, getting penetration and playing on the Marshall side of the line of scrimmage will not only disrupt the Marshall running game but should also keep Birdsong on the move.
Either way, the key for Purdue’s defense will be to keep Birdsong guessing about numbers in the box and coverages. While Birdsong does have starting experience, this will be his first start in over two years; his first for Marshall and his first in front of a crowd of over 30K. Of note, Birdsong has already started a game against a 1-A opponent when he and JMU traveled to Akron in 2013. In that game, he was 29 of 42 for 310 yards with 3 TDs and 1 INT but lost 35-33. Also interesting to note that going back to 1968, Marshall QBs making their first starts are 11 and 24. Only two of those wins came against 1-A opponents (Rice in 2011, Miami (OH) in 2002).
Playing on the road, turnovers are going to be key for Purdue to have any chance at winning. Not only must they come out ahead in turnovers but also need to score when they do force Marshall into a miscue. The two pick-sixes that Purdue got against Marshall in the 2012 game turned out to be the difference in the game. A similar play may make the difference again this year.
Also interesting to note: Last season Marshall finished 120th (out of 125 teams) in Penalties Per Game and 121st in Penalty Yards Per Game. They were better in 2013 but still below average (80th and 61st respectively). Purdue on the other hand, finished last season at 28th in Penalties Per Game and 33rd in Penalty Yards Per Game. Both of these were improvements over 2013 when they were still pretty good at 41st and 44th respectively, well above average. In real terms, the difference between Marshall and Purdue last season amounted to about 40 yards per game of “hidden” yardage. Again, for a team (Purdue) that has had trouble scoring and defending in the past, any advantage helps.
Weather for Sunday right now calls for a 40% chance of morning showers with a high of 82 degrees. Marshall’s stadium has FieldTurf installed so the rain shouldn’t effect the play of either team. With the way conditions can change this time of year, don’t be surprised if that forecast changes multiple times before kickoff.
Purdue has put a lot of focus on winning this game to the point of physically putting “all of their eggs in a basket”. While a loss at Marshall could backfire and potentially derail the season before it even gets started, that’s a question for week 2 and beyond, not week 1. Purdue is certainly going into Sunday with their minds focused.
Purdue represents the first B10 team to ever play at Marshall and one must expect that fact isn’t lost on the Marshall players who’d like nothing more to knock off another Power 5 team. Only a few of those players remain from the team which Purdue beat back in 2012 but a little bit of revenge could also factor into the Herd’s motivation.
Both teams have a lot of questions surround the teams. If Marshall is going to win, they need to hope they haven’t fallen far from the 13 win team of a year ago. If Purdue is going to win, they need to make sure they’ve put plenty of distance between this year and last year’s 3 win team. Since that 2012 game, Purdue and Marshall’s records are virtually flipped with Purdue going 7-26 and Marshall posting a 26-9 record.
Road games are never easy to win. Road games against good opponents are never easy to win. Marshall, even with their personnel losses from last season is a good opponent. While a loss shouldn’t doom the season (think back to the opening game of the 1997 season), a win would go a long way to building some fan support and confidence in a Purdue team which should be competitive in most every game they play this season.
Sunday can’t get here soon enough!
Taking a look at the size and experience of the Marshall lines and LBs and seeing how they match up against Purdue's equivalents.
- Purdue’s defense will face a Marshall O-line which will be close to the average size of units that Purdue will face this year at 303.6 lbs. This is about 0.8 lbs per man larger than the average B10 line. They are however one of the less experienced groups at 2.8 years of experience. Three starters return from last year with one of those three moving positions this year (RG to C). The Herd will have 61 collective starts as a unit. One thing to note is that the average size is bolstered by the two OTs, both coming in at 322 lbs. The interior linemen are all below 300 lbs with the center and one of the guards coming in below 290lbs. Also worthy of note is that their Left Tackle and Center, arguably the two most important positions will be filled by new starters.
- This year’s Purdue’s D-Line (Panfil, Replogle, Watson, Miles) averages about 267.8 lbs, down about 7lbs from the 275 lbs average from last year. They will be outweighed by the Herd line by about 36.8 lbs per man on average. Purdue’s average experience is 3.00 years, identical to last year’s line when two Seniors started at DE. The size of this group will be below average for a B10 team and also slightly below average in terms of experience. As a unit they are very untested as going into Saturday they have 19 collective starts. When Henley is playing the size and experience level will increase to the point where they would be just slightly below average for a B10 team.
- This season Purdue is listing the Linebackers as a normal three LB set. Purdue’s LBs (Ezechukwo, Bentley, Herman) come in at 245.3 lbs but only 2.33 years of experience. That’s up over 3.0 lbs from last year and the collective experience is the same as the start of last year when Sean Robinson started in the middle. Though young, they have a collective 27 starts between them. Size wise, this group is one of the largest in the B10 but experience wise, they fall on the other side of the ledger and are tied for the youngest in the B10 (Nebraska, Minnesota).
- Purdue’s O-line (Hedelin, King, Kugler, Roos, Cermin) will average 302.2 lbs per man, down by 2.6 lbs from last year’s 304.8 lbs. This places them slightly below average in the B10. They average 3.40 years of experience which is (finally) slightly above average for the B10 where in prior years they have been one of the youngest lines in the B10. Collectively, this group has 81 starts among them. Kugler has the lion’s share (31) of those starts by himself. The start totals also don’t include Hedelin’s while he was a JUCO.
- At 269.8lbs, Marshall’s D-line will be one of the smaller D-Line Purdue will face this year. They will be well above average in terms of experience with a 3.75 year average. This will be the oldest line Purdue should face this year. They’ll be outweighed by Purdue’s O-line by 32.4lbs per man. They return one starter from last year and have a collective 22 starts between them.
- The Herd LBs comes in a little on the small side at 223.33 lbs. and is scheduled to be the 2nd smallest unit Purdue will face (Bowling Green). Their largest LB, the MLB is listed at 240lbs but in the depth chart is actually listed as an “or”. Should Marshall chose to start the alternate, the average size would be 212.67lbs. They do have decent experience with an average of 3.67 years at the position. Again, this will among be the smaller units that Purdue will face this year. Together they have 40 starts with one starter returning from last season and another starter returning from 2013, having sat out last season with a knee injury.
We now get to see Year 3 of the rebuilding process for Purdue football. This is the year where the recruiting, coaching and experience should all start to come together and the results show up on the field.
Sagarin is predicting a 9.94 point Purdue loss
Vegas opened up with Marshall favored by 7.5. (Line now as high as -8.5)
Compughter Ratings.com predicts a 41-25 Purdue loss
CollegeFootballPoll predicts a 15.48 point Purdue loss
MasseyRatings predicts a 38-24 Purdue loss.
CollegeFootballNews predicts a Purdue win but doesn’t list a score.
ESPN bloggers predictions have yet to come out.
Purdue has reportedly worked on becoming more of a spread team and one capable of varying tempos to keep opposing defenses off balance. If they can accomplish that, it could provide them an advantage in that there is no film available which shows them running that type of offense. On the other hand, that’s the same type of offense that Marshall runs so you would think their defense should be pretty well versed in defending it.
Whatever offense Purdue chooses to run, it has to be efficient and score. While I don’t expect Marshall to pick right up where they left off last season from an offensive perspective, they still have a good number of pieces left over from their 13 win season. Still, losing QB Cato, WR Shuler, TE Frohnaphle and C Jasperse is roughly akin to Purdue losing Brees, Stubblfield, Stratton and Hardwick all in one season and trying to replace them.
Last season’s stats showed Marshall to be decent to good from a defensive standpoint. They ranked 53rd in the nation in Run Defense; 22nd nationally in Pass Efficiency Defense and; 31st overall for Total Defense. However, I believe their offense last year had as much to do with their defense as did their actual defense.
When you look at the teams they faced, their opponents were below average collectively in running the ball. The best team they faced was UNI at #16 in Rush Offense, from there they faced MTSU (#30) and UAB (#31) but it really dropped off after that. The average Rushing Offense rank for their opponents came in at 71.33.
A second reason why Marshall's Rushing Defense might have looked better was Marshall's offense. As prolific and as sudden as Marshall was in scoring the ball, other teams generally had to abandon the run and become one-dimensional in their offense. I charted their games to determine yards per carry until the opponent got more than 14 points behind and teams averaged 4.69 yards per carry. Again, we’re not talking about heavy running teams, yet they still averaged very good yardage while the games were close.
The third reason, and one which dovetails into the above point, is that when opposing teams fell behind and had to pass more, it allowed Marshall's defense to really key in with their pass rush and generate a good number of sacks. Of course, unlike the NFL where sack yards are taken away from Pass Yards, the NCAA counts them as rushes, thereby reducing the yardage allowed total for the game. If you'd add back in the 254 yards Marshall got from their 38 sacks, their Rush Defensive rank would drop from 53rd to 78th last season. Even half of that yardage and their rush defense goes to about middle of the pack.
I haven’t been able to watch a lot of their film from last season but did catch Marshall against Northern Illinois in their bowl game where they had some trouble stopping runs right up the middle. The NIU O-line came in slightly older (3.6 v. 3.4 years) and slightly smaller (301.6lbs v. 302.2 lbs) than Purdue has this season but UNI’s line did have over 160 collective starts which is double what the Purdue line will start the season (81). In that game, Northern’s two main running backs each averaged over 5 yards per carry.
In other words, look for Purdue to try and establish the run early and, if smart, stay with it as long as possible. Marshall’s defense is a bit undersized but should compensate by being quick, thus I think you’ll want to see Purdue not try and run any slow developing plays but instead just quick hitters up the gut.
If all goes to plan, Marshall will have to commit an extra man in the box which should open up some play action passes to a single covered receiver. Marshall’s DBs are fairly experienced and all have good size but as long as the O-line can keep Appleby clean, Purdue’s wide outs should get some opportunities. It will then up to Appleby to make the most of them.
On defense, Purdue will have their work cut out for them. Marshall’s primary ball carrier is a huge, converted TE who comes in at 6’1” 240lbs (He’s reportedly “slimmed down” to 235lbs).
Again, while my viewing of Marshall has been limited, their scheme is pretty simple: count the men in the box and throw if it’s 7 or more; run if it’s 6 or less. Johnson gained most of his yards against nickel defenses where the offense could match up with the defense hat on hat. Make no mistake, Johnson is fast in the open field and with his size, is a load to bring down. Purdue’s defense will need to make sure and take proper angles when he is running as his speed is deceptively quick. An easy comparison for Johnson is Western Michigan’s Jarvion Franklin (6’0” 220lbs) who gashed Purdue in last year’s opener for163 yards on just 19 carries. Purdue can’t afford a similar performance this year.
While Purdue's Rushing Defense wasn't statistically good last year(Ranked 91st) it’s important to note that the average of Purdue's opponents Rushing Offense rank was 49.55th. Purdue actually held 8 of their 12 opponents to below or very near their season rushing averages. They just happened to face a lot of good rushing teams.
The Offensive Coordinator for Marshall should be a familiar name in Bill Legg who was a coach and OC at Purdue prior to Hope taking over. Over the past three years, Legg has been credited with heading up one of the most prolific offenses in the country and was listed as the top 3rd down play caller over those past three years.
Of course, those last three years are also when Cato was a Sophomore, Junior and Senior at Marshall, so how has he done when he hasn’t had Cato in those years? Glad you asked. Legg has been the OC at West Virginia (2000), Purdue (2006-2007), Florida International (2008-2009) and Marshall (2010-2014) or a total of 10 years. Overall, his teams have averaged 407.92 yards per game and his national Total Offensive rank has been 53.4th with Scoring Offense rank at 48.9th. However, if you subtract these last three years from his performance, his average yards of offense drops to 355.05 (15% drop), Total Offense Rank goes to 73.4th and Scoring Offense goes to 67.4th. The Median is even worse at 333.38 yards, 96th in Total Offense and 68th in Scoring Offense. You’ll recall that while at Purdue, he had future NFL’er Curtis Painter heading up the offense.
Taking over for Cato this year is Michael Birdsong, a big, athletic (6’5” 241lb) QB with a big arm. He transferred in from 1-AA James Madison after his Sophomore season and sat out last year due to transfer rules so in essence, he’s a Senior in terms of experience. While he’s reportedly been a good addition to Marshall, there are still some questions surrounding him and his play.
His transfer came after a coaching change and he had been relegated to backup from the starter role he enjoyed his sophomore season. He was also not highly recruited out of High School although that, in itself, isn’t necessarily a condemnation on his talent level.
Again, as you might expect, game film on him is limited but from what I did observe was that he had good accuracy on those passes where he could zip the ball in to the receiver (slants, etc.) but had trouble on passes which required a bit of touch or those where he had to loft the ball over defender’s heads. In that way, he reminded me of a young Kyle Orton with a single speed (fastball) of delivery regardless of where his target was located.
His accuracy also dropped to near zero when he was flushed from the pocket and had to try to throw on the run. This was one area where Cato was deadly for Marshall last year as he was able to scramble around, keeping a play alive and being able to hit a receiver down field while on the move. Unless Birdsong has greatly improved in the last two years, it’s doubtful he’ll be able to match Cato in that ability while on the run. And speaking of running, due to his size and ability, he may get his name called on designated runs.
Marshall loses their top two receivers from last season but does return one starter and some top talent, most notably Foster who’ll take over for Shuler. If Birdsong and Foster start to connect early, look for Purdue to try and play Nickel moving Williams over the slot receiver (Foster).
My guess is that Purdue will either try and keep at least 7 in the box to combat Johnson and the run game and then try to get pressure on Birdsong to get him on the move. If Purdue’s corners can lock up the outside receivers one-on-one, it could allow Purdue to bring one of their safeties, most likely Gregory, down to help control Johnson and the Marshall running game. I also suspect that the threat of Johnson is one of the reasons that Gregory will get the start in Game 1 as he presents a much more physical presence than Roberts and can also play more like a LB should Purdue use their Nickel defense.
Purdue needs to get pressure from the D-line and not have to rely on blitz packages. While Miles is scheduled to start at one DE spot, it won’t surprise me to see Henley getting a good number of snaps, perhaps in obvious passing situations.
One thing I will be looking for from the first snap on is how much penetration the D-line is able to get on the Marshall line. It’s an aspect which we haven’t seen much from Purdue’s defense over the last few years but will be a telltale as to how much better they will be this year. Obviously, getting penetration and playing on the Marshall side of the line of scrimmage will not only disrupt the Marshall running game but should also keep Birdsong on the move.
Either way, the key for Purdue’s defense will be to keep Birdsong guessing about numbers in the box and coverages. While Birdsong does have starting experience, this will be his first start in over two years; his first for Marshall and his first in front of a crowd of over 30K. Of note, Birdsong has already started a game against a 1-A opponent when he and JMU traveled to Akron in 2013. In that game, he was 29 of 42 for 310 yards with 3 TDs and 1 INT but lost 35-33. Also interesting to note that going back to 1968, Marshall QBs making their first starts are 11 and 24. Only two of those wins came against 1-A opponents (Rice in 2011, Miami (OH) in 2002).
Playing on the road, turnovers are going to be key for Purdue to have any chance at winning. Not only must they come out ahead in turnovers but also need to score when they do force Marshall into a miscue. The two pick-sixes that Purdue got against Marshall in the 2012 game turned out to be the difference in the game. A similar play may make the difference again this year.
Also interesting to note: Last season Marshall finished 120th (out of 125 teams) in Penalties Per Game and 121st in Penalty Yards Per Game. They were better in 2013 but still below average (80th and 61st respectively). Purdue on the other hand, finished last season at 28th in Penalties Per Game and 33rd in Penalty Yards Per Game. Both of these were improvements over 2013 when they were still pretty good at 41st and 44th respectively, well above average. In real terms, the difference between Marshall and Purdue last season amounted to about 40 yards per game of “hidden” yardage. Again, for a team (Purdue) that has had trouble scoring and defending in the past, any advantage helps.
Weather for Sunday right now calls for a 40% chance of morning showers with a high of 82 degrees. Marshall’s stadium has FieldTurf installed so the rain shouldn’t effect the play of either team. With the way conditions can change this time of year, don’t be surprised if that forecast changes multiple times before kickoff.
Purdue has put a lot of focus on winning this game to the point of physically putting “all of their eggs in a basket”. While a loss at Marshall could backfire and potentially derail the season before it even gets started, that’s a question for week 2 and beyond, not week 1. Purdue is certainly going into Sunday with their minds focused.
Purdue represents the first B10 team to ever play at Marshall and one must expect that fact isn’t lost on the Marshall players who’d like nothing more to knock off another Power 5 team. Only a few of those players remain from the team which Purdue beat back in 2012 but a little bit of revenge could also factor into the Herd’s motivation.
Both teams have a lot of questions surround the teams. If Marshall is going to win, they need to hope they haven’t fallen far from the 13 win team of a year ago. If Purdue is going to win, they need to make sure they’ve put plenty of distance between this year and last year’s 3 win team. Since that 2012 game, Purdue and Marshall’s records are virtually flipped with Purdue going 7-26 and Marshall posting a 26-9 record.
Road games are never easy to win. Road games against good opponents are never easy to win. Marshall, even with their personnel losses from last season is a good opponent. While a loss shouldn’t doom the season (think back to the opening game of the 1997 season), a win would go a long way to building some fan support and confidence in a Purdue team which should be competitive in most every game they play this season.
Sunday can’t get here soon enough!
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