Purdue goes on the road to face their most hated rival in the (now) #2 Iowa Hawkeyes. (I would have finished this sooner but the Dodgers have been playing.)
Taking a look at the size and experience of the Iowa Lines and LBs and seeing how they match up against Purdue's equivalents. (Note: A number of teams on this season’s schedule have already factored in the player’s extra year of eligibility. Where possible, I’ve not done so in order to try and get a truer picture of each team’s experience. Thus, my numbers may not always jibe with other sites). Purdue has not released a 2-deep yet (Purdue’s should come out on Thursday) so I have made some educated guesses as to starters.
- After facing the largest O-Line in the conference, Purdue will now face the smallest as Iowa’s O-Line averages 294.0 lbs. Unlike the Minnesota, as well as the Illinois line, this line lacks a lot of experience coming in with an average of just 2.20 years of experience. Collectively, they will have just 52 starts among them with the most experienced players (center and left guard) both multi-year starters. They start two Freshmen along the line with the right guard (Colby) a true freshman. He came in highly regarded (4*) but still is a freshman and is a bit undersized, as are all of the starters.
- This week’s Purdue’s projected D-Line (Kalaftkis, Johnson, Dean, Jenkins) averages about 282.5 lbs. (up slightly as we’ve moved Mitchell out of the starting spot). That size puts them slightly below average for the B10. They will be outweighed by the Iowa line by about 11.5 lbs per man on average. Purdue’s average experience is 2.5 years, down slightly again due to the addition of Jenkins. As a unit they have 49 collective starts.
- Purdue’s projected LBs (Graham, Alexander, Douglas) come in at 233.3 lbs, up slightly from last year and are at 3.67 years of experience, also up from last season due to Douglas starting. Their size puts them in the upper tier of the B10 behind just Rutgers, Wisconsin and PSU. They have a collective 40 starts between them.
- Purdue’s projected O-line (Long, Holstege, Hartwig, Witt, Miller) will average 306.0 lbs per man, up by 5 lbs from last year’s 301.0 lbs. but still one of the smaller units in the B10 ahead of just Northwestern and Iowa. They average 3.00 years of experience, up nearly a half-year from last season’s 2.6 years. Collectively, they have a decent number of starts, in 94. Starting out last season, this group had a mere 36 starts so Purdue should be in much better shape this season.
- Iowa features a standard 4-3 scheme. At 274.8 lbs, they are scheduled to be well below the average size of D-lines Purdue will face this season, and smallest in the B10. Somewhat like their O-Line counterparts, they come in a little older with a 3.0 year average and will be outweighed by Purdue’s O-line by 31.80 lbs per man. With three first-year starters, they’ll only have 33 starts between them. Take the above with a grain of salt, as proven on the field, Iowa routinely replaces a number of starters along both lines each year but due to their continuation of schemes from year to year, those new starters always seem to play better than their (lack of) experience would suggest.
- Iowa is getting to the point where they always seem to have good LB play. This season they have two new starters and their third LB is actually a hybrid LB/Safety (“Leo/Cash”). Like the other two position groups, they are undersized at 225.7 lbs., which obviously puts them well below average for teams Purdue will face this season but not the smallest unit Purdue will face (UConn, Illinois, IU are smaller). They are right about where the other two units in terms of experience with 3.00 years at the position and the collective starts at 28. The two true LBs are basically first year starters while the hybrid LB has a handful of starts previously.
Vegas predicts Iowa by 12 points (Opened up at -11.0 points)
MasseyRatings predicts a 26-14 Iowa win
Sagarin predicts a 21.35 point Iowa win
CollegeFootballPoll predicts a 15.76 point Iowa win.
For those of you who care about recruiting ratings, here are the starter’s Rivals ratings:
Purdue...........................Iowa
QB O’Connell NR..........Petras 4*
RB Dorue 3*…...............Goodson 3*
WR/FB Wright 4*.........Pottebaum NR
WR Bell 4*.........…….…..Ragaini 3* (ATH)
WR Sheffield 3*............ Tracy 3*
TE Durham 3*.................LaPorta 3*
LT Long 2*...................….Richman 3* (DE)
LG Witt 2*...................... Schott NR
C Hartwig 4*................... Linderbaum 3* (DT)
RG Holstege 2*............... Colby 4*
RT Miller 3*......................DeJong NR (DE)
DE Mitchell 3*...................Waggoner 4*
DT Johnson 3*………....….Shannon 3*
DT Dean 3*…......................Lee 3* (TE)
DE/LB Karlaftis 4*.............VanValkenburg NR (Hillsdale)
LB Alexander 3*....…........ Campbell 3*
LB Douglas 2* ……….....…Benson 2*
LB/S Graham 3*...…….…..Belton 3* (DB)
CB Brown *.........……........Hankins 3*
CB Mackey 3*.....................Merriweather 2*
FS Allen 3*......……….........Koerner NR
SS Grant 4*.......................…Roberts 3*
After a bye week, Purdue returns to the field healthier but not back fully. A key offensive piece of the puzzle in Payne Durham should back in action but starting running back Horvath is reportedly out another week and backup wideouts Yaseen and Rice are not available and done for the year. The status of RB Dorue is to be determined. On defense, CB Cory Trice is scheduled to return after suiting up against Minnesota but not seeing any action.
Since losing to Purdue and Northwestern to start the 2020 season, Iowa has not suffered a defeat and enters the game on a 12 game winning streak with an opportunistic defense and an offense capable of big plays even though it hasn’t shown a propensity of them this season. They’ve parlayed that winning streak (including three ranked opponents this season) into the #2 ranking, their highest rank since 1985.
The Iowa defense leads the nation in takeaways, interceptions and turnover margin with 20, 16 and a +15 respectively. They lead the B10 in scoring defense (13.0 ppg – how convenient for Purdue. Tic) and are second in the league in Total Defense.
Of those 20 takeaways, they have used them to score 71 points (nearly 12 points per game). The defense has scored three TDs on their own with two Pick-6’s and a fumble recovery.
Needless to say that the defense has over achieved this season, especially considering the number of new starters (9 – 5 offense/4 defense).
One group which hasn’t changed from last season are the DBs. Iowa returned a veteran crew at all four positions however arguably their top CB, Moss, is reportedly out for the game with a knee injury suffered in a non-contact incident against PSU. He is scheduled to be replaced by 5’10” Terry Roberts, a Junior out of Erie, PA. While a backup, he has appeared in all 6 games with 9 total tackles, an interception and a pass breakup to his credit. He is shorter than Moss and may be vulnerable to Purdue’s height at the wideout spots (Bell 6’2”, Wright 6’3”). This will be his first start
Normally, considering Iowa’s winning streak and lofty rank, you’d expect a good to great offense. Not necessarily so this season.
On offense, Iowa is as Iowa does. They want to run, pass out of play action and pass to their TE. (I could copy-paste this from every TOTT I’ve done for Iowa over the years). The problem is, they haven’t been too prolific in doing that this season. Iowa is LAST in the B10 (119th nationally) in Total Offense; 9th in the B10 (100th nationally) in Passing Offense and 12th in the B10 (99th nationally) in Rushing Offense. Of course, that really doesn’t mean much as they are 5th in the B10 (49th) in Scoring Offense. Arguably, some of the offensive stats can be chalked up to defensive scores and short fields after turnovers. Still, on the whole, they haven’t shown a lot of explosive plays (outside of the MD game) and have just 22 plays from scrimmage over 20 yards. That’s the same number as Purdue has with having played one fewer game.
While not as dominant as they’ve been in years past, their O-Line still has good talent and features arguably the best center in the nation in Linderbaum (27 starts).
While not the “best” in the nation, their TE LaPorta is very good. It will likely be up to Graham to cover him and hopefully he does as well against LaPorta as he did against ND’s TE (1 catch for 5 yards).
Their QB, Petras, has been solid but his biggest improvement over last season is that he’s giving the ball away less frequently. In 2020, Petras had more Interceptions than TDs until the final two games of the season when he threw for 5 TDs without a pick. He finished up the year with 9 TDs and 5 Interceptions. To date this season, he’s already matched his TD number of 9 but has but two Interceptions. Clearly an improvement.
They have a very good running back in Goodson. He doesn't get the press of some of the other backs in the league but he's solid and a perfect fit for what Iowa wants to do on offense. Iowa also utilizes their fullback frequently, not only to block but he'll carry the ball from time to time. Iowa does seem to run the ball more effectively when he's in the game.
Purdue has reportedly used their off week to scout themselves and see where their lack of red zone efficiency can be improved. This week may be the perfect week in which to get that done as Iowa has allowed teams to score 13 out of the 14 times they’ve entered the Red Zone (93%) and have allowed a TD in 8 of those 14 times (57%).
As poor as the scoring has been (11th in B10, 102nd nationally), they’ve been good on the defensive side of the ball giving up just 15.4 ppg which is good for 3rd in the B10, 8th nationally. Looking at yards, Purdue’s defense has been average in Rush Defense (7th in B10, 46th nationally) and 3rd in Pass Efficiency Defense (13th nationally). The two combined place Purdue’s defense at 3rd in the league in Total Defense (15th nationally). I think most will agree than the changeover in defensive staff last offseason has been up to now a roaring success.
Only nit to pick with the defense is that they haven’t gotten many picks. Unlike Iowa’s group, Purdue’s defense has picked the ball off just 2 times and is yet to recover an opponent’s fumble. In the Yin/Yang that is Offense/Defense, having the defense turn the other team over should improve the Offense’s scoring by benefit of short fields and such. Conversely, while the offense hasn’t scored as much as we’d like, they are moving the ball well ranking 4th in the league in 3rd down conversions (43.4%) and 2nd in the league in 4th down conversions (50%). The defense is also doing their part keeping teams from converting 3rd downs (32.5%) good for 5th in the league and 4th downs (25%) good for 2nd in the league.
One thing to keep in mind, Purdue is somewhat rested coming off of their bye week. Iowa, on the other hand has played 7 weeks in a row and against some higher level (at the time) competition, culminating in their close win against PSU last week. Does the physical and mental toll of playing those 7 weeks without a break set them up for a letdown this week? Time will tell.
Since Coach Brohm took over Purdue’s program in 2017, he’s 3-1 against Iowa which is only matched by Wisconsin and Northwestern during that time. Purdue has also averaged 26.5 points in those games which is the most Iowa has given up to any team during the 4 year period of 2017-2020. For whatever reason, Brohm and Purdue have had Iowa’s number. Let’s hope it continues.
Purdue will be arguably entering it’s most hostile playing environment of the season at Kinnick Stadium (ahead of ND IMHKO). It will be critical for the Boilers to play a clean game. Limit the pre-snap penalties, or for that matter, any penalties. They will also need to take care of the ball. Last season, Iowa’s two fumbles cost them the ball game. In 2019, a “fumble” by Anderson and an interception by Plummer deep in Iowa territory kept Purdue from scoring on those two drives and basically was the difference in the ballgame. (Anderson’s “fumble” came well after the whistle should have been blown).
On paper, had this been any other team other than Iowa, it would seem a complete mismatch. However, Purdue under Brohm seemingly knows how to gameplan against Iowa and create mismatches in the passing game. Thus, I won’t be surprised if the game is closer than expected.
Weather for Saturday is predicted to be sunny with temperatures in the high-50’s at kickoff with possible winds of 10-20mph. The winds may be the only factor which should potentially affect the game.
Let’s play football!
Taking a look at the size and experience of the Iowa Lines and LBs and seeing how they match up against Purdue's equivalents. (Note: A number of teams on this season’s schedule have already factored in the player’s extra year of eligibility. Where possible, I’ve not done so in order to try and get a truer picture of each team’s experience. Thus, my numbers may not always jibe with other sites). Purdue has not released a 2-deep yet (Purdue’s should come out on Thursday) so I have made some educated guesses as to starters.
- After facing the largest O-Line in the conference, Purdue will now face the smallest as Iowa’s O-Line averages 294.0 lbs. Unlike the Minnesota, as well as the Illinois line, this line lacks a lot of experience coming in with an average of just 2.20 years of experience. Collectively, they will have just 52 starts among them with the most experienced players (center and left guard) both multi-year starters. They start two Freshmen along the line with the right guard (Colby) a true freshman. He came in highly regarded (4*) but still is a freshman and is a bit undersized, as are all of the starters.
- This week’s Purdue’s projected D-Line (Kalaftkis, Johnson, Dean, Jenkins) averages about 282.5 lbs. (up slightly as we’ve moved Mitchell out of the starting spot). That size puts them slightly below average for the B10. They will be outweighed by the Iowa line by about 11.5 lbs per man on average. Purdue’s average experience is 2.5 years, down slightly again due to the addition of Jenkins. As a unit they have 49 collective starts.
- Purdue’s projected LBs (Graham, Alexander, Douglas) come in at 233.3 lbs, up slightly from last year and are at 3.67 years of experience, also up from last season due to Douglas starting. Their size puts them in the upper tier of the B10 behind just Rutgers, Wisconsin and PSU. They have a collective 40 starts between them.
- Purdue’s projected O-line (Long, Holstege, Hartwig, Witt, Miller) will average 306.0 lbs per man, up by 5 lbs from last year’s 301.0 lbs. but still one of the smaller units in the B10 ahead of just Northwestern and Iowa. They average 3.00 years of experience, up nearly a half-year from last season’s 2.6 years. Collectively, they have a decent number of starts, in 94. Starting out last season, this group had a mere 36 starts so Purdue should be in much better shape this season.
- Iowa features a standard 4-3 scheme. At 274.8 lbs, they are scheduled to be well below the average size of D-lines Purdue will face this season, and smallest in the B10. Somewhat like their O-Line counterparts, they come in a little older with a 3.0 year average and will be outweighed by Purdue’s O-line by 31.80 lbs per man. With three first-year starters, they’ll only have 33 starts between them. Take the above with a grain of salt, as proven on the field, Iowa routinely replaces a number of starters along both lines each year but due to their continuation of schemes from year to year, those new starters always seem to play better than their (lack of) experience would suggest.
- Iowa is getting to the point where they always seem to have good LB play. This season they have two new starters and their third LB is actually a hybrid LB/Safety (“Leo/Cash”). Like the other two position groups, they are undersized at 225.7 lbs., which obviously puts them well below average for teams Purdue will face this season but not the smallest unit Purdue will face (UConn, Illinois, IU are smaller). They are right about where the other two units in terms of experience with 3.00 years at the position and the collective starts at 28. The two true LBs are basically first year starters while the hybrid LB has a handful of starts previously.
Vegas predicts Iowa by 12 points (Opened up at -11.0 points)
MasseyRatings predicts a 26-14 Iowa win
Sagarin predicts a 21.35 point Iowa win
CollegeFootballPoll predicts a 15.76 point Iowa win.
For those of you who care about recruiting ratings, here are the starter’s Rivals ratings:
Purdue...........................Iowa
QB O’Connell NR..........Petras 4*
RB Dorue 3*…...............Goodson 3*
WR/FB Wright 4*.........Pottebaum NR
WR Bell 4*.........…….…..Ragaini 3* (ATH)
WR Sheffield 3*............ Tracy 3*
TE Durham 3*.................LaPorta 3*
LT Long 2*...................….Richman 3* (DE)
LG Witt 2*...................... Schott NR
C Hartwig 4*................... Linderbaum 3* (DT)
RG Holstege 2*............... Colby 4*
RT Miller 3*......................DeJong NR (DE)
DE Mitchell 3*...................Waggoner 4*
DT Johnson 3*………....….Shannon 3*
DT Dean 3*…......................Lee 3* (TE)
DE/LB Karlaftis 4*.............VanValkenburg NR (Hillsdale)
LB Alexander 3*....…........ Campbell 3*
LB Douglas 2* ……….....…Benson 2*
LB/S Graham 3*...…….…..Belton 3* (DB)
CB Brown *.........……........Hankins 3*
CB Mackey 3*.....................Merriweather 2*
FS Allen 3*......……….........Koerner NR
SS Grant 4*.......................…Roberts 3*
After a bye week, Purdue returns to the field healthier but not back fully. A key offensive piece of the puzzle in Payne Durham should back in action but starting running back Horvath is reportedly out another week and backup wideouts Yaseen and Rice are not available and done for the year. The status of RB Dorue is to be determined. On defense, CB Cory Trice is scheduled to return after suiting up against Minnesota but not seeing any action.
Since losing to Purdue and Northwestern to start the 2020 season, Iowa has not suffered a defeat and enters the game on a 12 game winning streak with an opportunistic defense and an offense capable of big plays even though it hasn’t shown a propensity of them this season. They’ve parlayed that winning streak (including three ranked opponents this season) into the #2 ranking, their highest rank since 1985.
The Iowa defense leads the nation in takeaways, interceptions and turnover margin with 20, 16 and a +15 respectively. They lead the B10 in scoring defense (13.0 ppg – how convenient for Purdue. Tic) and are second in the league in Total Defense.
Of those 20 takeaways, they have used them to score 71 points (nearly 12 points per game). The defense has scored three TDs on their own with two Pick-6’s and a fumble recovery.
Needless to say that the defense has over achieved this season, especially considering the number of new starters (9 – 5 offense/4 defense).
One group which hasn’t changed from last season are the DBs. Iowa returned a veteran crew at all four positions however arguably their top CB, Moss, is reportedly out for the game with a knee injury suffered in a non-contact incident against PSU. He is scheduled to be replaced by 5’10” Terry Roberts, a Junior out of Erie, PA. While a backup, he has appeared in all 6 games with 9 total tackles, an interception and a pass breakup to his credit. He is shorter than Moss and may be vulnerable to Purdue’s height at the wideout spots (Bell 6’2”, Wright 6’3”). This will be his first start
Normally, considering Iowa’s winning streak and lofty rank, you’d expect a good to great offense. Not necessarily so this season.
On offense, Iowa is as Iowa does. They want to run, pass out of play action and pass to their TE. (I could copy-paste this from every TOTT I’ve done for Iowa over the years). The problem is, they haven’t been too prolific in doing that this season. Iowa is LAST in the B10 (119th nationally) in Total Offense; 9th in the B10 (100th nationally) in Passing Offense and 12th in the B10 (99th nationally) in Rushing Offense. Of course, that really doesn’t mean much as they are 5th in the B10 (49th) in Scoring Offense. Arguably, some of the offensive stats can be chalked up to defensive scores and short fields after turnovers. Still, on the whole, they haven’t shown a lot of explosive plays (outside of the MD game) and have just 22 plays from scrimmage over 20 yards. That’s the same number as Purdue has with having played one fewer game.
While not as dominant as they’ve been in years past, their O-Line still has good talent and features arguably the best center in the nation in Linderbaum (27 starts).
While not the “best” in the nation, their TE LaPorta is very good. It will likely be up to Graham to cover him and hopefully he does as well against LaPorta as he did against ND’s TE (1 catch for 5 yards).
Their QB, Petras, has been solid but his biggest improvement over last season is that he’s giving the ball away less frequently. In 2020, Petras had more Interceptions than TDs until the final two games of the season when he threw for 5 TDs without a pick. He finished up the year with 9 TDs and 5 Interceptions. To date this season, he’s already matched his TD number of 9 but has but two Interceptions. Clearly an improvement.
They have a very good running back in Goodson. He doesn't get the press of some of the other backs in the league but he's solid and a perfect fit for what Iowa wants to do on offense. Iowa also utilizes their fullback frequently, not only to block but he'll carry the ball from time to time. Iowa does seem to run the ball more effectively when he's in the game.
Purdue has reportedly used their off week to scout themselves and see where their lack of red zone efficiency can be improved. This week may be the perfect week in which to get that done as Iowa has allowed teams to score 13 out of the 14 times they’ve entered the Red Zone (93%) and have allowed a TD in 8 of those 14 times (57%).
As poor as the scoring has been (11th in B10, 102nd nationally), they’ve been good on the defensive side of the ball giving up just 15.4 ppg which is good for 3rd in the B10, 8th nationally. Looking at yards, Purdue’s defense has been average in Rush Defense (7th in B10, 46th nationally) and 3rd in Pass Efficiency Defense (13th nationally). The two combined place Purdue’s defense at 3rd in the league in Total Defense (15th nationally). I think most will agree than the changeover in defensive staff last offseason has been up to now a roaring success.
Only nit to pick with the defense is that they haven’t gotten many picks. Unlike Iowa’s group, Purdue’s defense has picked the ball off just 2 times and is yet to recover an opponent’s fumble. In the Yin/Yang that is Offense/Defense, having the defense turn the other team over should improve the Offense’s scoring by benefit of short fields and such. Conversely, while the offense hasn’t scored as much as we’d like, they are moving the ball well ranking 4th in the league in 3rd down conversions (43.4%) and 2nd in the league in 4th down conversions (50%). The defense is also doing their part keeping teams from converting 3rd downs (32.5%) good for 5th in the league and 4th downs (25%) good for 2nd in the league.
One thing to keep in mind, Purdue is somewhat rested coming off of their bye week. Iowa, on the other hand has played 7 weeks in a row and against some higher level (at the time) competition, culminating in their close win against PSU last week. Does the physical and mental toll of playing those 7 weeks without a break set them up for a letdown this week? Time will tell.
Since Coach Brohm took over Purdue’s program in 2017, he’s 3-1 against Iowa which is only matched by Wisconsin and Northwestern during that time. Purdue has also averaged 26.5 points in those games which is the most Iowa has given up to any team during the 4 year period of 2017-2020. For whatever reason, Brohm and Purdue have had Iowa’s number. Let’s hope it continues.
Purdue will be arguably entering it’s most hostile playing environment of the season at Kinnick Stadium (ahead of ND IMHKO). It will be critical for the Boilers to play a clean game. Limit the pre-snap penalties, or for that matter, any penalties. They will also need to take care of the ball. Last season, Iowa’s two fumbles cost them the ball game. In 2019, a “fumble” by Anderson and an interception by Plummer deep in Iowa territory kept Purdue from scoring on those two drives and basically was the difference in the ballgame. (Anderson’s “fumble” came well after the whistle should have been blown).
On paper, had this been any other team other than Iowa, it would seem a complete mismatch. However, Purdue under Brohm seemingly knows how to gameplan against Iowa and create mismatches in the passing game. Thus, I won’t be surprised if the game is closer than expected.
Weather for Saturday is predicted to be sunny with temperatures in the high-50’s at kickoff with possible winds of 10-20mph. The winds may be the only factor which should potentially affect the game.
Let’s play football!
