Still a 4 seed in today's Bracketology (link)

[TC4THREE]

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

I know a few people here think it's a big deal whether we're a 4 or a 5. I do not. The history of 12/5 upsets is only relevant if we allow it to be by not finishing the game like last year (or the year before for that matter although it wasn't a 12/5 game).

Whether we are a 4 or a 5 we will be facing a team that we are capable of beating. Just need to do it.

 

[FirstDownB]

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

I know a few people here think it's a big deal whether we're a 4 or a 5. I do not. The history of 12/5 upsets is only relevant if we allow it to be by not finishing the game like last year (or the year before for that matter although it wasn't a 12/5 game).

Whether we are a 4 or a 5 we will be facing a team that we are capable of beating. Just need to do it.

Observations:
(1) The fact that he has Butler as a 4 seed shows just how far we have to climb to get to a 3 seed. They have unquestionably a better resume. We are a low, low 4. Likely nothing short of winning out including the BTT will get us a 3 seed. Even that may not be enough. There is a ceiling forming at the 4 line for teams like us. The only ones jumping up to the 3 line are the ones beating top 10 teams (see UCLA). We have no such opportunities remaining.
(2) Indy is pretty much out the window. Still a ways behind UL and UK with not enough games left.
(3) That Milwaukee pod would be a fun one to go watch. Possible Purdue/Cincinnati rematch from 2 years ago. Butler and ND on the other side.

 

[TC4THREE]

I agree. Other than Florida, I don't see a 3 seed I would really make a case for us to replace and you have to figure that right now at least Butler is in line to move up before us.

 

[BoiledSteel]

Personally I think no matter what happens we are a 4 seed and have been for some time. These things seemed to get solidified weeks before the season ends and very little changes from that point.

It doesn't matter what our seed is if we exit early regardless.

 

[krazyjvilled]

let me get this strait... florida loses, stays a 3 seed, butler wins, falls from a 3 seed to a 4 seed... LMAO

what is this love fest with overated florida???

CBS has us as a 5 seed and espn has us a 4 seed

 

[Dryfly88]

In that Jerry Palm/CBS bracket the opponent for the #4 and #5 seeds is interesting. The #4 gets Vermont #69 in KenPom. The #5 gets Illinois State rated #45 by KenPom, which is 1 spot ahead of Maryland and 5 spots ahead of MSU. I admit I have not seen Vermont play but I have seen Illinois State twice. They are a very good team playing in a tough MVC.

This is just an example of why there is a 15% win advantage for #4 seeds over #5 seeds in the first round. The largest difference of any one seed line. It's not because of some voodoo or curse of the 5 seed. The #12 seed is traditionally the winner of a mid-level non power 5 conference or a second place finisher in a high level non-power 5 conference (this would be Ill St this year). The #13 seed usually is the winner of a low level non power 5 conference.

The other obvious advantage of the #4 is that if you do get the 5/12 upset in your bracket you now get to play a double digit seed instead of a top 20 team for the right to go to the sweet 16. All advantages I would like to see PU have. I agree with TC that if we play like we are capable then the #12/#13 match-up shouldn't matter. I would just like as much of the math tilting in our favor as possible.

 

[IndySouthsider]

Baylor is 3-5 in a their last 8. That's good for a 2 seed?

 

[BoilerStation]

Baylor is 3-5 in a their last 8. That's good for a 2 seed?

They face a tough test tonight in WVU also.

 

[IndySouthsider]

Let's just say it.

When Purdue is top of the league, they always scream down year in the be Big 10!

 

[FleeTheScene]

I'm not even sure we end up on the 4 line. The early top 16 was a couple of weeks ago and we weren't in it. What have we done to improve our seeding? We beat Rutgers and MSU at home, beat Penn St. on the road and lose to Michigan on the road. I don't know if that's enough to move us up. Especially when good wins over Wisconsin (who also wasn't there when they were ranked #7 at the time) and Maryland are becoming less impressive.

 

[StickPurdue]

Let's just say it.

When Purdue is top of the league, they always scream down year in the be Big 10!

0 Big Ten teams in the top 15 is a down year. The second tier teams are pretty good and Michigan, Minny, and MSU may have enough to win first round games. Wisconsin and Maryland will likely fizzle out early and unlikely even win a game. Purdue is the question mark. The talent to make a deep run but some times they just don't show up.

 

[lbodel]

I'm not even sure we end up on the 4 line. The early top 16 was a couple of weeks ago and we weren't in it. What have we done to improve our seeding? We beat Rutgers and MSU at home, beat Penn St. on the road and lose to Michigan on the road. I don't know if that's enough to move us up. Especially when good wins over Wisconsin (who also wasn't there when they were ranked #7 at the time) and Maryland are becoming less impressive.

While it's certainly a different year, also remember our personal expected seeding last year was much better than we actually got. I think you're right - keep in mind what we saw a couple weeks ago. I think as of today, I'd probably put us as a 5 seed. If we win our last 2 games and make at least semifinals or finals in the BTT, we could see a 4 depending on other teams.

 

[PistolPt]

I'm not even sure we end up on the 4 line. The early top 16 was a couple of weeks ago and we weren't in it. What have we done to improve our seeding? We beat Rutgers and MSU at home, beat Penn St. on the road and lose to Michigan on the road. I don't know if that's enough to move us up. Especially when good wins over Wisconsin (who also wasn't there when they were ranked #7 at the time) and Maryland are becoming less impressive.

Well Creighton, Virginia , Florida St , Duke etc all have lost games last couple of weeks. One loss to a good Michigan team shouldn't hurt us too much.

 

[NashvilleBoiler]

I haven't looked at a bracket...well since last year...so forgive me if this is wrong, but wouldn't a 4 seed be better for us than a three with the argument that you get to play a 2 instead of a 1 to get to the regional final?

 

[Dryfly88]

I haven't looked at a bracket...well since last year...so forgive me if this is wrong, but wouldn't a 4 seed be better for us than a three with the argument that you get to play a 2 instead of a 1 to get to the regional final?

4 seed plays the 1 seed
3 seed plays the 2 seed

 

[Chauncey1986]

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

I know a few people here think it's a big deal whether we're a 4 or a 5. I do not. The history of 12/5 upsets is only relevant if we allow it to be by not finishing the game like last year (or the year before for that matter although it wasn't a 12/5 game).

Whether we are a 4 or a 5 we will be facing a team that we are capable of beating. Just need to do it.

E. Tennessee, no cupcake. Mich. St. and Wichita St.... that would be a good one.

 

[jadeezra]

let me get this strait... florida loses, stays a 3 seed, butler wins, falls from a 3 seed to a 4 seed... LMAO

what is this love fest with overated florida???

CBS has us as a 5 seed and espn has us a 4 seed

Gotta keep Kentucky legit .... just kills me that conference is total trash other than a team or two every year and big just gets frowned on and dissed

 

[Chauncey1986]

Some pretty "nasty" one seeds, but I am glad we are in with Gonzaga right now. We match up best against them? Right? Would love to see Haas and Karnowski go at it.

 

[NashvilleBoiler]

4 seed plays the 1 seed
3 seed plays the 2 seed

RATS!

 

[Roeder]

I'm not even sure we end up on the 4 line. The early top 16 was a couple of weeks ago and we weren't in it. What have we done to improve our seeding? We beat Rutgers and MSU at home, beat Penn St. on the road and lose to Michigan on the road. I don't know if that's enough to move us up. Especially when good wins over Wisconsin (who also wasn't there when they were ranked #7 at the time) and Maryland are becoming less impressive.

This. Purdue does not have any opportunities to get any statement wins to move up the seed line, and Wisconsin and Maryland tanking hurt the resume. If they win out including the B1G tourney they will be a 4 or 5 at best. Lose one or two more they will be a 5 or 6.
This sucks, but not much Purdue can do about it. I actually think the team will play better if they have the underdog mindset and feel they have something to prove.

 

[BoilerStation]

This. Purdue does not have any opportunities to get any statement wins to move up the seed line, and Wisconsin and Maryland tanking hurt the resume. If they win out including the B1G tourney they will be a 4 or 5 at best. Lose one or two more they will be a 5 or 6.
This sucks, but not much Purdue can do about it. I actually think the team will play better if they have the underdog mindset and feel they have something to prove.

Winning has the potential to move Purdue up because we can still improve our overall average numbers and dropping a game doesn't automatically move us down because there are other teams out there and I'm sure we will see at least another 5 to 10 teams ranked ahead of lose by the end of the year if you include conference tourneys. Were we to win out including the BTT Purdue will easily be a 4 seed. I think a 3 seed is long gone unless absolutely everybody in front of us drops multiple games and even then it's unlikely at this point.

 

[BoilerBulldog]

We are a low 4 seed at best. And we have far more outcomes that lead to a 5 than staying at 4. We can't get to 3. We win the next two games and win at least 1 in BTT and we stay at 4. I think if we win out we might may not make a 3. We can't beat anyone good enough.

 

[StickPurdue]

This. Purdue does not have any opportunities to get any statement wins to move up the seed line, and Wisconsin and Maryland tanking hurt the resume. If they win out including the B1G tourney they will be a 4 or 5 at best. Lose one or two more they will be a 5 or 6.
This sucks, but not much Purdue can do about it. I actually think the team will play better if they have the underdog mindset and feel they have something to prove.

A lot of people in front of us have lost. The four seed is the likely destination, but unlikely if we lose two more games. Should beat IU and NW. Just need to make it to the Big Ten tourney championship game and not worry about the rest. We just need to keep getting better and get over this mini slump.

 

[New Pal Boiler]

We are a low 4 seed at best. And we have far more outcomes that lead to a 5 than staying at 4. We can't get to 3. We win the next two games and win at least 1 in BTT and we stay at 4. I think if we win out we might may not make a 3. We can't beat anyone good enough.

Yep. It's why we really needed to win either the Nova or UL games.

 

[TX4GB]

Virginia just beat UNC so they are moving up from #5 now.

 

[lbodel]

4 seed plays the 1 seed
3 seed plays the 2 seed

I think there's about a 1% chance we end up as a 3 seed.

 

[lbodel]

Yep. It's why we really needed to win either the Nova or UL games.

Well, yeah that would be great, but it's easy to look back and say what we needed (or didn't need) to do. If we avoided 1-2 of our Minnesota/Iowa/Nebraska losses, it would be the equivalent of beating a UL/Nova.

Back on November 14 when we played Villanova, there were three Big Ten teams ranked in the top 15 (two in the top 10). To say that's why we needed to win this or that game is not untrue, but it's not like at the time we were looking it at as our only opportunity to beat a top 15 team.

 

[New Pal Boiler]

Well, yeah that would be great, but it's easy to look back and say what we needed (or didn't need) to do. If we avoided 1-2 of our Minnesota/Iowa/Nebraska losses, it would be the equivalent of beating a UL/Nova.

Back on November 14 when we played Villanova, there were three Big Ten teams ranked in the top 15 (two in the top 10). To say that's why we needed to win this or that game is not untrue, but it's not like at the time we were looking it at as our only opportunity to beat a top 15 team.

Disagree. One more win inside the big 10 does not do as much, compared to winning against a top 10 team outside the Big Ten.

 

[TC4THREE]

We are a low 4 seed at best. And we have far more outcomes that lead to a 5 than staying at 4. We can't get to 3. We win the next two games and win at least 1 in BTT and we stay at 4.

I mostly agree with the sentiment but there is no way anyone can conclusively state this as fact right now with all the moving pieces involved.

 

[Indy_Rider]

Who cares what these brackets say, because I'm sure they committee will some how put us as a 6/7 seed because we are Purdue.

 

[lbodel]

d

Disagree. One more win inside the big 10 does not do as much, compared to winning against a top 10 team outside the Big Ten.

Well, Louisville was not top 10. But if we were 25-4 (with wins against Nebraska/Minnesota), I think we'd be in a very similar spot than if we were 24-5 (win against Louisville, Nebraska loss). Especially as that would put us at 14-2 in conference, i.e. more recent streak of very, very few losses.

 

[BoilerFan#35]

I honestly don't care about seeding. As long as we are as far away as we can be from Nova and Louisville I'll be happy. Also I would not like being a 4 seed with coach K at the 5 seed waiting in the round of 32. Just get a good draw