Some interesting Week 10 lines

[FirstDownB]

Some 7-8 win teams playing teams with 4-5 wins with very different predicted outcomes

Missouri (4-4) at #1 Georgia (8-0) Georgia -38
LSU (4-4) at #3 Alabama (7-1) Bama -28.5
#5 MSU (8-0) at Purdue (5-3) MSU -3
#7 Oregon (7-1) at Washington (4-4) Oregon -6.5
#10 Wake Forest (8-0) at UNC (4-4) UNC -2.5
#11 Ok State (7-1) at West Va (4-4) OSU -3

It's pretty obvious that gamblers pay absolutely zero attention to rankings and W/L records. And beyond the top 3 teams per the metrics- Georgia, Alabama, Ohio St- there is a significant drop-off. So significant that teams in the 5-10 range are expected to have their hands full with just about any team in the 25-40 range, whereas teams in the top 3-5 would be favored by multiple touchdowns against opponents in that same range.

Bottom line is that playing a 8-0 MSU or Wake team is more like playing Nebraska than Ohio State.

 

[rgarlitz]

I wonder when the last time LSU was a 4-TD underdog.

+3 to MSU honestly sounds about right to me. I wonder if the odds makers think Sparty is ripe for a letdown.