Scholarship Crunch - 2022 Recruiting Impact

[Boiler Addict]

So, this year (2021) my understanding scholarship counts can be over 85 due to NCAA blanket waiver, but that by (2022) the 85 limit will be enforced until NCAA states otherwise. Additionally, the assumption is that NCAA blanket waiver applied to every single person on the team, not just 2020 seniors. If the NCAA enforces the 85 limit in 2022, the following could occur.

2021 scholarship situation (assuming Armour and Murphy do not come back) is 92 players. I'm breaking them into 6 groups.

[A] (3) Graduate Transfers, eligible only for 2021. (Long, Witt, McWilliams)
[B.] (3) 6th year seniors (2016 class) on extra year eligibility only for 2021 (Watts, Fakasiieiki, Anthrop)
[C] (7) 5th year seniors (2017 class) but now with 2 years of eligibility, 2021 and 2022 (Horvath, McWilliams, Mackey, Stickford, Washington, O'Connell, Burton)
[D] (3) 4th year seniors (2018 class) but now with 2 years of eligibility, 2021 and 2022 (Alexander, Mitchell, Howard)
[E] (2) guys (2019 class) like Karlaftis, Bell could declare for the draft.
[F] everyone else (class 2019-2021) would have at least 2022 season eligibility left

Groups A-B (6) guys are gone for sure.
Groups C-D (10) guys are gone assuming every single guy with remaining eligibility due to COVID year leaves or doesn't redshirt in 2021.
Group E (2) early NFL draft entrants.

That's (18) total guys in a "everyone leaves in 2021 scenario".

That would bring the count down to: 92-18=74
- assuming 5 guys transfer out/medically retire/leave the program, that's 74-5=69.
- assuming from groups C/D/E; 2 guys hang around, 69+2=71

That would leave 11-14 remaining scholarships for 2022 class. Also consider Brohm would probably save 2 spots for transfers, so we could be looking at a 9-12 man high school class. So expect Purdue to have about the same national overall class ranking as 2021 (73rd) if not worse. I would encourage anyone concerned not to pay attention to it since class size is part of the formula. 2022 recruiting will be about recruit quality. I wouldn't be surprised if we go months without a commitment / really slow news year.

I'm curious how 2022 recruiting pans out. Here's my 11 guesses:
(1) QB [Allen]
(1) RB
(1) WR
(2) OL

(2) DL
(2) LB [Moon]
(2) DB

Thoughts?

 

[nat100]

This will be a bigger class than 12. The ncaa COVID rules don’t keep a coach from giving players the talk. Especially those at the end of their 4 years

 

[Boiler Addict]

This will be a bigger class than 12. The ncaa COVID rules don’t keep a coach from giving players the talk. Especially those at the end of their 4 years

Sure. I allotted for 5 guys with eligibility leaving, obviously that can be incorrect. Sure don't hope for a 2021 Tennessee, Penn State or 2020 Stanford transfer situation. All things are relative though, it wouldn't necessarily be bad depending on who leaves. From the 2018 class that would still have 2022 eligibility there's 7 guys that are not in the 2 deeps.

Even if it's 10 departing transfers/leaves; the class size is still in the 14-17 man range.

 

[New Pal Boiler]

Sure. I allotted for 5 guys with eligibility leaving, obviously that can be incorrect. Sure don't hope for a 2021 Tennessee, Penn State or 2020 Stanford transfer situation. All things are relative though, it wouldn't necessarily be bad depending on who leaves. From the 2018 class that would still have 2022 eligibility there's 7 guys that are not in the 2 deeps.

Even if it's 10 departing transfers/leaves; the class size is still in the 14-17 man range.

Similar situation with hoops, and Painter seems to be recruiting the 2022 class as if no one is coming back for an extra year.

 

[_slabach]

Solid post. Good work

 

[KentuckyBoiler]

With the Transfer Portal, it is going to make it difficult for coaching staffs to know how many to take each year. You almost have to over recruit.

I would assume that other colleges have to be in a harder situations with numbers, because other BT teams seemed to have larger classes in 2021.

 

[FirstDownB]

I've been wondering about this same thing for awhile, and I don't get the impression the NCAA has thought this all the way through. Going from 95 or so scholarship players this fall to 85 in one year is going to have a big ripple effect, with more than the usual number of guys across the nation getting "the talk" and small 2022 recruiting classes overall. IMO a 90 scholarship limit for 2022 would be a more reasonable number and help keep things in balance.

 

[DAG10]

I've been wondering about this same thing for awhile, and I don't get the impression the NCAA has thought this all the way through. Going from 95 or so scholarship players this fall to 85 in one year is going to have a big ripple effect, with more than the usual number of guys across the nation getting "the talk" and small 2022 recruiting classes overall. IMO a 90 scholarship limit for 2022 would be a more reasonable number and help keep things in balance.

You and I see it the same way for sure...the NCAA did not think their decision through...at all from a long-term standpoint, and, barely from a short-term one.

It has (and will) impact schools/programs...professional leagues potentially (messing up draft classes)...career stats and school records...and, most importantly, it directly impacts individuals, in a potentially VERY significant way (or ways).

In the end...those individuals that do receive "the talk" about not returning, they still lose the year that they allegedly are/have not, unless they transfer...which impacts them, the transfer school, players at the transfer school, recruits at the transfer school, etc.

 

[Boiler Addict]

2021 scholarship situation (assuming Armour and Murphy do not come back) is 92 players. I'm breaking them into 6 groups.

Looks like I might be off by 1 in my count. DJ Johnson is not on the Purdue football spring roster. Unsure if he's just opting out of spring, but if he's not on the team, there would be 91 scholarship players (assuming Armour, Murphy and Johnson do not come back), all other numbers would also adjust by 1.

 

[ChuckJr]

NCAA thinking something through? Isn't that an oxymoron? Only think worse is the clown running the B10

 

[Bullwhip Griffith]

Looks like I might be off by 1 in my count. DJ Johnson is not on the Purdue football spring roster. Unsure if he's just opting out of spring, but if he's not on the team, there would be 91 scholarship players (assuming Armour, Murphy and Johnson do not come back), all other numbers would also adjust by 1.

Injured players out this spring are listed.

So...he gone

 

[Boiler Addict]

Since the last update in February, there's been a lot of action in and out. Assuming the following:
- Plummer gone for 2022.
- Last I heard Bramel, Cormier, Jornigan are medical redshirts, but assuming transitioning to medical retire
- Assume Chase Triplett, Kadin Smith left the program.

So the numbers below exclude those 6 names.

As it stands today, for 2022-2023;
64 scholarship players will have eligibility. (29 Offense, 34 defense, 1 ST)
3 utilize an extra year (Jefferson, Washington, Fineran). They didn't participate in senior day.
19 recruits committed (including the kicker)
86 Total

1 undecided (O'Connell)
2 trying to get waivers (Long, Fakasiieiki)
89 Total

Overall I'd say the scholarship situation panned out better than expected. The guess of (5) to (10) for leaving the program was low. In the last 12 months, starting with Amad Anderson, 25 players have transferred, retired, graduated or will graduate with remaining eligibility. 3 of those early graduates were expected (Moore, Bell, Karlaftis).

There's still more potential recruits and transfers. So additional attrition to come.

 

[FirstDownB]

Since the last update in February, there's been a lot of action in and out. Assuming the following:
- Plummer gone for 2022.
- Last I heard Bramel, Cormier, Jornigan are medical redshirts, but assuming transitioning to medical retire
- Assume Chase Triplett, Kadin Smith left the program.

So the numbers below exclude those 6 names.

As it stands today, for 2022-2023;
64 scholarship players will have eligibility. (29 Offense, 34 defense, 1 ST)
3 utilize an extra year (Jefferson, Washington, Fineran). They didn't participate in senior day.
19 recruits committed (including the kicker)
86 Total

1 undecided (O'Connell)
2 trying to get waivers (Long, Fakasiieiki)
89 Total

Overall I'd say the scholarship situation panned out better than expected. The guess of (5) to (10) for leaving the program was low. In the last 12 months, starting with Amad Anderson, 25 players have transferred, retired, graduated or will graduate with remaining eligibility. 3 of those early graduates were expected (Moore, Bell, Karlaftis).

There's still more potential recruits and transfers. So additional attrition to come.

Nice analysis. I’d be a bit disappointed if only 3 guys use their Covid year. Would like to see Mackey, Horvath, or Alexander return if they haven’t shut the door on the idea yet.

 

[BCfanatic2020]

Was an announcement made on smith and Triplett and I missed it

 

[nat100]

Was an announcement made on smith and Triplett and I missed it

Neither were on the fall roster.

 

[BCfanatic2020]

Neither were on the fall roster.

Ahhh ok

 

[Wolegib]

As I look at it, this same ruling and philosophy will apply to EVERY NCAA school, not just Purdue. and you will see EVERY school with smaller recruiting classes. Instead of those 25+ classes, more schools will have smaller classes making it more important to recruit quality players over quanity players. The boilermakers may have to rethink their redshirting philosophy and recruit more players who are ready to contribute as true freshmen or sign more transfers with experience. The boilermakers will have to start recruit more high school players like Bell, Moore, GK and Hartwig. And Purdue will have to recruit less players that require 1-2 years of development before they are able to make a contribution. Looking at past recruiting classes, only 5 BIG 10 teams had a recruiting class bigger than 20 recruits last year. IU's 2022 class is ranked very high for a team that only has 13 recruits commited. With the transfer portal, I believe the big recruiting classes are a thing of the past. I'm not really concerned about our recruiting class ranking going forward.

 

[Purdue85]

As I look at it, this same ruling and philosophy will apply to EVERY NCAA school, not just Purdue. and you will see EVERY school with smaller recruiting classes. Instead of those 25+ classes, more schools will have smaller classes making it more important to recruit quality players over quanity players. The boilermakers may have to rethink their redshirting philosophy and recruit more players who are ready to contribute as true freshmen or sign more transfers with experience. The boilermakers will have to start recruit more high school players like Bell, Moore, GK and Hartwig. And Purdue will have to recruit less players that require 1-2 years of development before they are able to make a contribution. Looking at past recruiting classes, only 5 BIG 10 teams had a recruiting class bigger than 20 recruits last year. IU's 2022 class is ranked very high for a team that only has 13 recruits commited. With the transfer portal, I believe the big recruiting classes are a thing of the past. I'm not really concerned about our recruiting class ranking going forward.

shocker... bigs talking down redshirting.

who would've seen that one coming?

bigs, I'm assuming you've missed all the reasons previously (painstakingly) detailed, as to why virtually EVERY program redshirts players?

dude.

 

[Boiler Addict]

Nice analysis. I’d be a bit disappointed if only 3 guys use their Covid year. Would like to see Mackey, Horvath, or Alexander return if they haven’t shut the door on the idea yet.

I was surprised too. I think all those players could help in 2022, but it’s also a numbers game to 85, plus Brohm will be active in the portal.

I’m also surprised that Brohm took a kicker this cycle knowing Fineran is coming back.

As I look at it, this same ruling and philosophy will apply to EVERY NCAA school, not just Purdue. and you will see EVERY school with smaller recruiting classes. Instead of those 25+ classes, more schools will have smaller classes making it more important to recruit quality players over quanity players. The boilermakers may have to rethink their redshirting philosophy and recruit more players who are ready to contribute as true freshmen or sign more transfers with experience. The boilermakers will have to start recruit more high school players like Bell, Moore, GK and Hartwig. And Purdue will have to recruit less players that require 1-2 years of development before they are able to make a contribution. Looking at past recruiting classes, only 5 BIG 10 teams had a recruiting class bigger than 20 recruits last year. IU's 2022 class is ranked very high for a team that only has 13 recruits commited. With the transfer portal, I believe the big recruiting classes are a thing of the past. I'm not really concerned about our recruiting class ranking going forward.

I don't think Purdue's goal is to not recruit top players in the country. You might benefit from quickly looking at who Purdue has offered this year and year's past.

https://247sports.com/college/purdue/Season/2022-Football/Offers/

Agree, recruiting class ranking has never mattered and will not moving forward. The ranking was partially based off of how many players signed, so it's a flawed mechanism anyway.

 

[DAG10]

I've been wondering about this same thing for awhile, and I don't get the impression the NCAA has thought this all the way through. Going from 95 or so scholarship players this fall to 85 in one year is going to have a big ripple effect, with more than the usual number of guys across the nation getting "the talk" and small 2022 recruiting classes overall. IMO a 90 scholarship limit for 2022 would be a more reasonable number and help keep things in balance.

Nailed it...NCAA decision was incredibly short-sighted and not well thought out, which, comes as little to no surprise. There will have to be some sort of change on the part of the NCAA.

 

[Bullwhip Griffith]

I was surprised too. I think all those players could help in 2022, but it’s also a numbers game to 85, plus Brohm will be active in the portal.

I’m also surprised that Brohm took a kicker this cycle knowing Fineran is coming back.


I don't think Purdue's goal is to not recruit top players in the country. You might benefit from quickly looking at who Purdue has offered this year and year's past.

https://247sports.com/college/purdue/Season/2022-Football/Offers/

Agree, recruiting class ranking has never mattered and will not moving forward. The ranking was partially based off of how many players signed, so it's a flawed mechanism anyway.

kicker is a PWO