OK, I know that we want to win out and the odds of us pulling a 3 seed at this point are pretty slim, but here is what I figure we need to see in order to have the best chance to possibly slip into a 3 seed slot:
(using the totally outdated RPI system which will hopefully die a tragic death starting next year....)
1) Purdue wins out (duh). Preferably with wins against Michigan (top 50), Minnesota (top 20), and either Maryland / NW / Wisconsin. So hopefully 3 more top 50 wins putting our record against top 50 at 10-4.
2) Michigan beats Illinois. At this point, I think we would rather keep Michigan above top 50, because I don't think that Illinois beating Michigan and losing to us would be enough to jump them into the top 50.
3) BIG ONE --->Northwestern beats OSU, and possibly Maryland. While Maryland losing to NW might drop them out of the top 25, NW (currently 51) breaking into the top 50 gives us two more top 50 wins. The Committee theoretically receives a printout that shows Top 50 wins, not Top 25, so I might be willing to sacrifice the Maryland top 25 for two top 50's.
4) Penn State beats Nebraska. Penn State sits precariously at 98 while Nebraska sits at 92. We don't want Nebraska dropping below top 100, but I think that a loss to PSU would probably have them switch places (96/92), making sure we keep two top 100 wins and keeping all our losses in the top 100.
5) Notre Dame winning at least one, maybe two games. Good enough to keep them top 25, but not good enough to pass us. That will likely be Virginia, but could also be GT or Pitt. After that, they could beat Florida State and then lose the championship game. That would likely be ideal.
6) Butler, Florida State, Florida, West Virginia, and Duke losing their next game. The sooner they are out, the better. We are not passing Arizona and any of the 2's. Probably couldn't hurt for Virginia, Cincinnati, SMU, and Saint Mary's to lose also just to make sure they don't pass us. Would be especially helpful if Boston College knocked off Wake Forrest, Virginia Tech, and then Florida State. That would be a bad loss for FSU and somewhat weaken some of the RPI's of the rest of the ACC. Same with DePaul beating Xavier and then knocking off Butler. Texas being the one to knock off West Virginia would be ideal as well.
7) Oklahoma losing. That would remove a top 150 win from West Virginia and give them a sub-150 loss.
8) Auburn beats Missouri. Auburn sits at 95 right now and a loss to Missouri would likely knock them out of the top 100. Auburn getting hot and beating out Arkansas couldn't hurt, and if Florida is able to knock off the Vandy / aTm winner, then Auburn beating Florida would also benefit us.
9) Some weird combinations that force a few of the fringe top 100/150 teams out of the top 100/150 (or keeping them out), giving the teams ahead of us one less top 100/150 win. Something that kicks down a few spots for Iona (98), George Washington (100), St. Bonaventure (89), Mississippi State (144), Georgetown (92), Texas Tech (102), Georgia Tech? (93), and maybe Marshall (143).
The odds of even half of these items occurring are pretty low, but at this point, we could use every benefit we can get to make us look better than the competition.
So to summarize:
Root for:
Purdue (9 games)
NW (1 game, maybe 2)
Michigan (1 game)
PSU (1 game, maybe 2)
ND (1 game, maybe 2)
BC (3 games, or WF / VT to beat FSU if BC falls)
DePaul (2 games)
Texas (2 games)
TCU (1 game against OK)
Clemson (will play Duke next)
Auburn (4 games, I guess, but at least 2)
St. Johns (vs. Georgetown)
Root against:
ND (if they make the Championship game)
Illinois
OSU / Rutgers winner
Nebraska
Butler
Florida State
Duke
Oklahoma
Virginia
Cincinnati
SMU
Saint Mary's
Missouri
Mississippi State (losing to LSU might just drop them down to 151)
Texas Tech
GT
Marshall
Georgetown
(using the totally outdated RPI system which will hopefully die a tragic death starting next year....)
1) Purdue wins out (duh). Preferably with wins against Michigan (top 50), Minnesota (top 20), and either Maryland / NW / Wisconsin. So hopefully 3 more top 50 wins putting our record against top 50 at 10-4.
2) Michigan beats Illinois. At this point, I think we would rather keep Michigan above top 50, because I don't think that Illinois beating Michigan and losing to us would be enough to jump them into the top 50.
3) BIG ONE --->Northwestern beats OSU, and possibly Maryland. While Maryland losing to NW might drop them out of the top 25, NW (currently 51) breaking into the top 50 gives us two more top 50 wins. The Committee theoretically receives a printout that shows Top 50 wins, not Top 25, so I might be willing to sacrifice the Maryland top 25 for two top 50's.
4) Penn State beats Nebraska. Penn State sits precariously at 98 while Nebraska sits at 92. We don't want Nebraska dropping below top 100, but I think that a loss to PSU would probably have them switch places (96/92), making sure we keep two top 100 wins and keeping all our losses in the top 100.
5) Notre Dame winning at least one, maybe two games. Good enough to keep them top 25, but not good enough to pass us. That will likely be Virginia, but could also be GT or Pitt. After that, they could beat Florida State and then lose the championship game. That would likely be ideal.
6) Butler, Florida State, Florida, West Virginia, and Duke losing their next game. The sooner they are out, the better. We are not passing Arizona and any of the 2's. Probably couldn't hurt for Virginia, Cincinnati, SMU, and Saint Mary's to lose also just to make sure they don't pass us. Would be especially helpful if Boston College knocked off Wake Forrest, Virginia Tech, and then Florida State. That would be a bad loss for FSU and somewhat weaken some of the RPI's of the rest of the ACC. Same with DePaul beating Xavier and then knocking off Butler. Texas being the one to knock off West Virginia would be ideal as well.
7) Oklahoma losing. That would remove a top 150 win from West Virginia and give them a sub-150 loss.
8) Auburn beats Missouri. Auburn sits at 95 right now and a loss to Missouri would likely knock them out of the top 100. Auburn getting hot and beating out Arkansas couldn't hurt, and if Florida is able to knock off the Vandy / aTm winner, then Auburn beating Florida would also benefit us.
9) Some weird combinations that force a few of the fringe top 100/150 teams out of the top 100/150 (or keeping them out), giving the teams ahead of us one less top 100/150 win. Something that kicks down a few spots for Iona (98), George Washington (100), St. Bonaventure (89), Mississippi State (144), Georgetown (92), Texas Tech (102), Georgia Tech? (93), and maybe Marshall (143).
The odds of even half of these items occurring are pretty low, but at this point, we could use every benefit we can get to make us look better than the competition.
So to summarize:
Root for:
Purdue (9 games)
NW (1 game, maybe 2)
Michigan (1 game)
PSU (1 game, maybe 2)
ND (1 game, maybe 2)
BC (3 games, or WF / VT to beat FSU if BC falls)
DePaul (2 games)
Texas (2 games)
TCU (1 game against OK)
Clemson (will play Duke next)
Auburn (4 games, I guess, but at least 2)
St. Johns (vs. Georgetown)
Root against:
ND (if they make the Championship game)
Illinois
OSU / Rutgers winner
Nebraska
Butler
Florida State
Duke
Oklahoma
Virginia
Cincinnati
SMU
Saint Mary's
Missouri
Mississippi State (losing to LSU might just drop them down to 151)
Texas Tech
GT
Marshall
Georgetown
