Rooting interests- Hot seats

[FirstDownB]

Trying hard to find a reason to keep watching football.. Compiling a list of teams who we may potentially be competing with for a new football coach (or otherwise affect our position in the pecking order) and rooting for them for the rest of the season. Goal is to have as few P5 openings as possible.

Here's a start. Feel free to comment who should be added.

USC (2-3) beat ASU
Texas (2-2) lost to OSU
Notre Dame (2-3) beat Syracuse
Penn State (3-2) beat Minnesota
Oregon (2-3) lost to Wazzou
UCLA (3-2) beat Arizona
South Carolina (2-3) lost to A&M
Kentucky (2-3) lost to Alabama
Georgia Tech (3-2) lost to Miami
Oregon State (1-3) lost to Colorado

 

[boilerpt]

We might be competing with about 3 of those teams. The others will be going after coaches that wouldn't give us a second thought.

 

[FirstDownB]

We might be competing with about 3 of those teams. The others will be going after coaches that wouldn't give us a second thought.

Thats the point. The more P5 openings there are the further down the list we are. Any change at the top creates a chain reaction.

 

[TMA62]

There are some good coordinators and assistant coaches on those teams that make look at Purdue. There are other coaches in safe programs that will look at Purdue. It is imperative that MB2 fire DH2 soon to let people know we are in the market. IMO, end of season firing is too late.

 

[Foolmeoncefan]

Right.... And that's the problem. Purdue needs to give out two year contracts. But with bigger money. Say 3.5 million per year guaranteed if you win at least half of big ten games during 3 and 4th year, but 2.5 million salary first two years. Burke is a horrible athletic director guaranteeing this guy 2 per year for 4 years. Absolutely unbelievable. Its as if Purdue made a side deal with other big ten schools to sabotage football to be food on their menu in return of something. How else do you describe such a constant no change losing performance. No more 4 year deals. You have to earn the 3 and 4 year. And with reward if you pull through. Purdue can't be stuck with a loser like this anymore. Two years is enough to win at 500. If you can't then get lost.

 

[DG10]

Trying hard to find a reason to keep watching football.. Compiling a list of teams who we may potentially be competing with for a new football coach and rooting for them for the rest of the season.

Here's a start. Feel free to comment who should be added.

USC (2-3) beat ASU
Texas (2-2) lost to OSU
Notre Dame (2-3) beat Syracuse
Penn State (3-2) beat Minnesota
Oregon (2-3) lost to Wazzou
UCLA (3-2) beat Arizona
South Carolina (2-3) lost to A&M
Kentucky (2-3) lost to Alabama
Georgia Tech (3-2) lost to Miami
Oregon State (1-3) lost to Colorado

Sad thing is, virtually every respective coach on the list of schools that you cited would be a major upgrade at/for Purdue, and even more sad, virtually every one of them would not just likely pass on the opportunity if approached about it, but laugh at the thought of taking it.

 

[ahhculdee]

Rod Carey from NIU will be gone at the end of the season

 

[FirstDownB]

Update 10/18:
USC (3-4, 1-3) project 7-5
Texas (3-3, 1-2) project 6-6
Notre Dame (2-5) project 4-8
Georgia (4-3, 2-3) project 7-5
Penn State (4-2, 2-1) project 8-4
Oregon (2-4, 0-3) project 4-8
UCLA (3-4, 1-3) project 6-6
South Carolina (2-4, 1-4) project 5-7
Kentucky (3-3, 2-2) project 5-7
Georgia Tech (4-3, 1-3) project 6-6
Oregon State (2-4, 1-2) project 3-9

Only Penn St is clearly moving away from the hot seat. Adding Georgia after losing 3 of 4 including at home to Vandy. Penn St off the hot seat for now. Georgia and S.Carolina with first year coaches would require a complete implosion.

Looks like there is going to be plenty of company in the job market. Our "peer" competition are the bottom three. Kentucky getting to 6 wins would be nice. With a new AD GaTech probably needs to do better.

 

[boiledmeconium]

Update 10/18:
USC (3-4, 1-3) project 7-5
Texas (3-3, 1-2) project 6-6
Notre Dame (2-5) project 4-8
Georgia (4-3, 2-3) project 7-5
Penn State (4-2, 2-1) project 8-4
Oregon (2-4, 0-3) project 4-8
UCLA (3-4, 1-3) project 6-6
South Carolina (2-4, 1-4) project 5-7
Kentucky (3-3, 2-2) project 5-7
Georgia Tech (4-3, 1-3) project 6-6
Oregon State (2-4, 1-2) project 3-9

Only Penn St is clearly moving away from the hot seat. Adding Georgia after losing 3 of 4 including at home to Vandy.

Looks like there is going to be plenty of company in the job market. Our "peer" competition are the bottom three. Kentucky getting to 6 wins would be nice. With a new AD GaTech probably needs to do better.

Thanks for doing this. Looks great! Would it be too much to ask for you to list all the top coaches that are/would be available? Then we can kind of guess who will go where and who is left and available to Purdue? Like a hot board?

 

[FirstDownB]

Thanks for doing this. Looks great! Would it be too much to ask for you to list all the top coaches that are/would be available? Then we can kind of guess who will go where and who is left and available to Purdue? Like a hot board?

Short answer: Yes it is too much to ask
Long answer: These things create such chain reactions it is impossible to include a list of coaches who will be changing jobs. Some are obvious because they are already unemployed (Miles, Briles). Some are employed but obviously due for an upgrade (Herman, Fleck, Schiano, Kiffin, Brohm, etc.). Then you have the ones that are already at a good situation, but may jump for an ideal one. The more poaching the big boys do, the more openings will be created. But then you also have the fired coaches from those programs also added to the pool.

My aim here is purely directional - that less competition is better and to track and casually root for that competition. Would love for a guy like Fleck to decide between Purdue and another year at Western Michigan rather than deciding between Purdue and Kentucky or UCLA.

 

[boiledmeconium]

Short answer: Yes it is too much to ask
Long answer: These things create such chain reactions it is impossible to include a list of coaches who will be changing jobs. Some are obvious because they are already unemployed (Miles, Briles). Some are employed but obviously due for an upgrade (Herman, Fleck, Schiano, Kiffin, Brohm, etc.). Then you have the ones that are already at a good situation, but may jump for an ideal one. The more poaching the big boys do, the more openings will be created. But then you also have the fired coaches from those programs also added to the pool.

My aim here is purely directional - that less competition is better and to track and casually root for that competition. Would love for a guy like Fleck to decide between Purdue and another year at Western Michigan rather than deciding between Purdue and Kentucky or UCLA.

Thanks, I figured. It's why I didn't want to do it myself.

It seems more and more to me that DH2 should have been fired last year and Fleck subsequently hired.

If Houston joins the big 12, do you think Herman stays as HC?

 

[C-Paranoia]

Really all you need to do on the contract is pay the money the coach apparently deserves given experience and potential, but have the guaranteed salary decline if the coach is not winning. This gives the program flexibility to dismiss the coach without "penalty" if the coach is not winning, but protects the coach from a flaky AD that wants to make a switch despite success.

 

[BoilerBiker]

Georgia and South Carolina -
on the list but only in year one of a new coach?

 

[SqueakyClean]

Thanks, I figured. It's why I didn't want to do it myself.

It seems more and more to me that DH2 should have been fired last year and Fleck subsequently hired.

If Houston joins the big 12, do you think Herman stays as HC?

The Big XII has announced that they will not be expanding. Herman is gone. My guess would be Texas, but LSU could be a contender.

 

[SqueakyClean]

Update 10/18:
USC (3-4, 1-3) project 7-5
Texas (3-3, 1-2) project 6-6
Notre Dame (2-5) project 4-8
Georgia (4-3, 2-3) project 7-5
Penn State (4-2, 2-1) project 8-4
Oregon (2-4, 0-3) project 4-8
UCLA (3-4, 1-3) project 6-6
South Carolina (2-4, 1-4) project 5-7
Kentucky (3-3, 2-2) project 5-7
Georgia Tech (4-3, 1-3) project 6-6
Oregon State (2-4, 1-2) project 3-9

Only Penn St is clearly moving away from the hot seat. Adding Georgia after losing 3 of 4 including at home to Vandy.

Looks like there is going to be plenty of company in the job market. Our "peer" competition are the bottom three. Kentucky getting to 6 wins would be nice. With a new AD GaTech probably needs to do better.

I would say that the USC, Notre Dame, Georgia, PSU and South Carolina coaches are all pretty safe this year. Most of those coaches are only a couple of years in and will be given one more year to right the ship. Kelly will be given one more year also. They will likely not survive one more year of bad results, but I would be shocked if they were canned this year.

Texas will fire Strong unless he wins out, but they are the lead contender on Herman, so little effect to Purdue.
Oregon will go after Chip Kelly

The last 4 (UCLA, Kentucky, GT, OSU) are certainly pertinent to the conversation.

 

[FirstDownB]

I would say that the USC, Notre Dame, Georgia, PSU and South Carolina coaches are all pretty safe this year. Most of those coaches are only a couple of years in and will be given one more year to right the ship. Kelly will be given one more year also. They will likely not survive one more year of bad results, but I would be shocked if they were canned this year.

Texas will fire Strong unless he wins out, but they are the lead contender on Herman, so little effect to Purdue.
Oregon will go after Chip Kelly

The last 4 (UCLA, Kentucky, GT, OSU) are certainly pertinent to the conversation.

I'll continue tracking ND, USC, USC, and Georgia. Right now they are probably safe but a poor finish would put them in jeopardy. Those are demanding fan bases. There are already plenty of rumblings about Kelly, and ND has more money than some countries GDP.

Herman is out of our league, but if Texas (or anyone) grabs him that will open up the Houston job. They are already paying $3M salary to Herman and have invested heavily in football to make a play for P5 status.

 

[JohnnyDoeBoiler]

I'll continue tracking ND, USC, USC, and Georgia. Right now they are probably safe but a poor finish would put them in jeopardy. Those are demanding fan bases. There are already plenty of rumblings about Kelly, and ND has more money than some countries GDP.

Herman is out of our league, but if Texas (or anyone) grabs him that will open up the Houston job. They are already paying $3M salary to Herman and have invested heavily in football to make a play for P5 status.

UGA gets everything they deserve if they go down in flame after firing Richt. He was a class act and ran a strong program. Bring a coach to West Lala that won as much as Richt did at UGA....they'd be building a new stadium with his name on it!

 

[boiledmeconium]

The Big XII has announced that they will not be expanding. Herman is gone. My guess would be Texas, but LSU could be a contender.

That's great and still relevant for Purdue because it's one more school that won't go after Fleck.

 

[FirstDownB]

Georgia and South Carolina -
on the list but only in year one of a new coach?

Good point. Some of my research was based on other sites hot seat rankings. Even with those demanding fan bases will have to give a second year.

 

[FirstDownB]

That's great and still relevant for Purdue because it's one more school that won't go after Fleck.

Or it is one MORE school (Houston) that goes after Fleck.. See above. They are paying $3M salary and have invested heavily in football. Is it an easier path to make the CFP at Houston or Purdue?

 

[boiledmeconium]

Or it is one MORE school (Houston) that goes after Fleck.. See above. They are paying $3M salary and have invested heavily in football. Is it an easier path to make the CFP at Houston or Purdue?

Ah, I missed that $3 million salary part.

 

[SqueakyClean]

I guess my point was: Herman is gone. Period. End of story. He'll end up at a helmet school like Texas or LSU. So filling Houston is a foregone conclusion as a competition for Purdue for prospective coaches.

Fleck is unfortunately probably also gone. He's been getting too much love already so that, unless they tank the season and end on a 4 to 5 game losing streak, he will get his pick of a school that is a "better" school than us. Don't get me wrong, I would love to have him, but I think we should have jumped on him last year if we were going to get him.

So unless you consider WMU as a better opportunity than Purdue (arguable, I guess, but probably not), that chain reaction is not going to have much affect on our coaching search.

The other 4 schools in the list (UCLA, Kentucky, GT, OSU) are much more likely to have the chain reaction affect on us

 

[FirstDownB]

I guess my point was: Herman is gone. Period. End of story. He'll end up at a helmet school like Texas or LSU. So filling Houston is a foregone conclusion as a competition for Purdue for prospective coaches.

Fleck is unfortunately probably also gone. He's been getting too much love already so that, unless they tank the season and end on a 4 to 5 game losing streak, he will get his pick of a school that is a "better" school than us. Don't get me wrong, I would love to have him, but I think we should have jumped on him last year if we were going to get him.

So unless you consider WMU as a better opportunity than Purdue (arguable, I guess, but probably not), that chain reaction is not going to have much affect on our coaching search.

The other 4 schools in the list (UCLA, Kentucky, GT, OSU) are much more likely to have the chain reaction affect on us

I get your point on Herman. But if Texas and LSU pass on him it is possible he could stay at Houston another year. But probably safe to assume Houston will be on the market.

I still think it is possible we end up being one of Fleck's best options.
Lets say enough of the P5 teams on the hot seat do well enough that only a few jobs open up.. say Texas, USC, Oregon, and Oregon State. Say Texas gets Herman, USC poaches from a P5 school (let's say Peterson from Washington just for grins), Oregon takes a hot shot P5 assistant, and LSU pulls from the NFL.
Now its down to Purdue versus Houston, Oregon State, and Washington for guys like Fleck, Brohm, and Schiano. Les Miles and Charlie Strong are going to land somewhere around this level too. Seems like we're right there in the mix for Fleck in this scenario.

That's a much different outlook than if additional jobs like Notre Dame, UCLA, Kentucky, and Georgia Tech also come open. Even worse if none of the big boys pull from the NFL or assistant coaching ranks. In this scenario, yes, you'd see Fleck getting offers from the schools we simply can't outbid or out recruit... which is EXACTLY why I'm rooting for these teams.

 

[FirstDownB]

Update 11/1:
USC (5-3, 4-2) project 8-4 Not sure what to make of this situation. Helton first full season on the job, won 4 in a row. Winning 3 of last 4 would lock him in, no?
Texas (4-4, 2-3) project 7-5 Big win over Baylor.. Would winning out save Charlie Strong's job?
Notre Dame (3-5) project 5-7
Oregon (3-5, 1-4) project 4-8
UCLA (3-5, 1-4) project 5-7
Kentucky (5-3, 4-2) project 7-5 Stoops may be secure barring a meltdown
Georgia Tech (5-3, 2-3) project 7-5 Trending toward safe, but new AD may want to make his mark
Oregon State (2-6, 1-4) project 3-9

On the radar..
Arizona (2-6, 0-5)? DickRod coming off a 7-6 season, probably gets at least another year at basketball school regardless of finish.
NC State (4-4, 1-3)? Dave Doeren with a Danny Hope-like 22-24 record at NCSt. Will they pull the plug and risk going Hazell? Wouldn't mind seeing them win a couple more games. Raleigh is a nice place to live.

IMO this is shaping up to be a more favorable buyers' market than 2012. Several of our peer P5 cellar dwellers are in the grace period of first year head coaches: Missouri, Iowa State, Illinois.

 

[takedownboiler]

Is NC St pulls the plug on him. I wouldn't mind seeing our next HC try and get him as a D.C.

 

[ghostoffatjack]

By the time we get to the last week of the regular season most of these will be clear cut decisions, JMO I have a hard time believing that UCLA will change due to their QB going down. Texas and LSU could be interesting if they both win out the rest of the season so Herman may not have those plums to choose and if he does Applewhite might be their choice! USC won't unless they implode! NCS might but I would bet not unless they lose out! Arizona & Kentucky could, Oregon will, Oregon State should and ND won't, Tennessee could be on a watch list if things continue to turn south lately, JMO!

 

[FirstDownB]

By the time we get to the last week of the regular season most of these will be clear cut decisions, JMO I have a hard time believing that UCLA will change due to their QB going down. Texas and LSU could be interesting if they both win out the rest of the season so Herman may not have those plums to choose and if he does Applewhite might be their choice! USC won't unless they implode! NCS might but I would bet not unless they lose out! Arizona & Kentucky could, Oregon will, Oregon State should and ND won't, Tennessee could be on a watch list if things continue to turn south lately, JMO!

Good point on LSU. When I started this thread it was almost a given that position would be open at the end of the season. But if they knock off Bama and run the table...

 

[Big Red Crimson Buffalo]

Right.... And that's the problem. Purdue needs to give out two year contracts. But with bigger money. Say 3.5 million per year guaranteed if you win at least half of big ten games during 3 and 4th year, but 2.5 million salary first two years. Burke is a horrible athletic director guaranteeing this guy 2 per year for 4 years. Absolutely unbelievable. Its as if Purdue made a side deal with other big ten schools to sabotage football to be food on their menu in return of something. How else do you describe such a constant no change losing performance. No more 4 year deals. You have to earn the 3 and 4 year. And with reward if you pull through. Purdue can't be stuck with a loser like this anymore. Two years is enough to win at 500. If you can't then get lost.

No coach in their right mind would sign on for a 2 year deal and accept some ludicrous performance clause for years 3 and 4.

That sends a bad message.
Also, don't think that it wouldn't be a negative on the recruiting trail: kids would be asked to sign on for a coach that can only tell them: "Well, you know I'll be here at least 2 years. Your final 2 years you may not see me."

 

[BoilerBulldog]

No coach in their right mind would sign on for a 2 year deal and accept some ludicrous performance clause for years 3 and 4.

That sends a bad message.
Also, don't think that it wouldn't be a negative on the recruiting trail: kids would be asked to sign on for a coach that can only tell them: "Well, you know I'll be here at least 2 years. Your final 2 years you may not see me."

Right. 5 year contract and an extension after two years if things are going well. That's how this game works.

 

[zwicker]

Absurd for Franklin to even be mentioned on the hot seat. PSU's sanction classes which were probably PSU's lowest ranked classes ever are still on the team. 11 starters are from the sacntions. Many of PSU's most talented kids have yet to see the field. Franlin is on pace to have his third winning season. He has more wins in his first 2.5 years at PSU than Harabaugh at Stanford, Dantonio at MSU or Saban at MSU.

 

[FirstDownB]

Absurd for Franklin to even be mentioned on the hot seat. PSU's sanction classes which were probably PSU's lowest ranked classes ever are still on the team. 11 starters are from the sacntions. Many of PSU's most talented kids have yet to see the field. Franlin is on pace to have his third winning season. He has more wins in his first 2.5 years at PSU than Harabaugh at Stanford, Dantonio at MSU or Saban at MSU.

Agreed. That's why I took him off the list 2 updates ago. But earlier in the season articles were written about him starting the season on the hot seat.

 

[FirstDownB]

IMO this is shaping up to be a more favorable buyers' market than 2012. Several of our peer P5 cellar dwellers are in the grace period of first year head coaches: Missouri, Iowa State, Illinois.

Nice headline, Brian.
https://purdue.rivals.com/news/analysis-this-year-s-coaching-carousel-might-be-a-buyer-s-market

 

[PaBoiler78]

Agreed. That's why I took him off the list 2 updates ago. But earlier in the season articles were written about him starting the season on the hot seat.

the best thing Egghead did was hire Morehead.

 

[ghostoffatjack]

As we near the end of this season so far both the LSU and Texas situations seemed to be clearing up as they both are winning and/or playing well! Will that be enough for no changes at each school, time will tell! Let's continue to play the scenario out...I still see no changes at NCS, Ky, ND, UCLA, Tenn, so Houston's Coach could be available to us, as Fleck might be just to name two, Oregon State and Oregon will probably be open and one of those is a great opportunity and situation for an Up and coming young coach... B1G stand pat other than Purdue, PAC could see one more change in addition to OU and OSU, SEC will probably stand pat unless A&M crashes and burns, ACC, GT might be in the market and maybe one more....it is appearing to be a good year to hire a very good coach looking for more $$$$$

 

[pboiler18]

I think Paul Johnson at GT is safe for this year. They will likely get to 6-6.

Kentucky's coach should be safe too.

Boston College should probably be on the list, but I don't see them as legit competition in a coaching search, especially if we are going to spend big $$$. I think the coaches pool is so stacked this year, look for them to potentially be in line to hire Schiano...which is a good fit.

If Tennessee tanks, I could see them getting rid of Butch Jones. They seem pretty tired of his antics there.

Kirby Smart at UGA is very safe. They are giving him time to "rebuild" but the only rebuild that actually needs done there is to jettison Jim Chaney as their play caller. Sound familiar?

 

[FirstDownB]

Update 11/7:
USC (6-3, 5-2) project 8-4 Five game hot streak, Helton seat cools
Texas (5-4, 3-3) project 7-5
Notre Dame (3-6) project 4-8 Appears Kelly at ND will get a mulligan
Oregon (3-6, 1-5) project 4-8
UCLA (3-6, 1-5) project 5-7
Kentucky (5-4, 4-3) project 7-5 Missed opportunity against Georgia. Will beating Austin Peay and backing into a bowl game be enough?
Georgia Tech (5-4, 2-4) project 6-6 Just don't blow it at home vs UVA
Oregon State (2-7, 1-5) project 3-9 Can Oregon State really part ways with Andersen after only 2 years?
Arizona (2-7, 0-6) project 3-9 It's starting to get ugly for DickRod
NC State (4-5, 1-4) project 5-7 This one is starting to make me nervous. Doeren's Pack may need 2 of 3, which will require an upset.
Tennessee (6-3, 2-3) project 8-4

Side note: Have not been tracking BC (or Vandy). I believe those jobs to be downstream of the Purdue job unless there is a perfect fit.

 

[pboiler18]

Update 11/7:
USC (6-3, 5-2) project 8-4 Five game hot streak, Helton seat cools
Texas (5-4, 3-3) project 7-5
Notre Dame (3-6) project 4-8 Appears Kelly at ND will get a mulligan
Oregon (3-6, 1-5) project 4-8
UCLA (3-6, 1-5) project 5-7
Kentucky (5-4, 4-3) project 7-5 Missed opportunity against Georgia. Will beating Austin Peay and backing into a bowl game be enough?
Georgia Tech (5-4, 2-4) project 6-6 Just don't blow it at home vs UVA
Oregon State (2-7, 1-5) project 3-9 Can Oregon State really part ways with Andersen after only 2 years?
Arizona (2-7, 0-6) project 3-9 It's starting to get ugly for DickRod
NC State (4-5, 1-4) project 5-7 This one is starting to make me nervous. Doeren's Pack may need 2 of 3, which will require an upset.
Tennessee (6-3, 2-3) project 8-4

Side note: Have not been tracking BC (or Vandy). I believe those jobs to be downstream of the Purdue job unless there is a perfect fit.

Decent summation. I think Vandy, BC, Arizona, Oregon and UCLA are the 5 comparable jobs that come open. I think we are better than the first 3. Oregon and UCLA will likely hire guys with west coast roots.

Really like where we are at this time around with whats looking like a decent war chest to spend.

 

[Indy_Rider]

Looking at this really makes me think we were screwed from the start with Hazell. Our first choice then was Jones, on the hot seat, second choice was supposedly Doeren and he's on the hot seat too. Looking like 2013 was just a really bad year and we could almost end up competing with the same schools for a coach this go around.

 

[JohnnyDoeBoiler]

Looking at this really makes me think we were screwed from the start with Hazell. Our first choice then was Jones, on the hot seat, second choice was supposedly Doeren and he's on the hot seat too. Looking like 2013 was just a really bad year and we could almost end up competing with the same schools for a coach this go around.

I believe that current Oregon HC Mark Helfrich was under consideration as well as Chip Kelly was still in town. I'm sure Chip explained to him that he would be leaving and to have Hudspeth stay with the Fighting Phil Knights and not take the Purdue job. Think Helfrich has Purdue any differently at this point had he taken the job?