Remaining game results and NCAAT seeding probabilities

[FirstDownB]

Pondering the most likely NCAAT tournament seed based on remaining game results. Obviously BTT opponents are unknown at this point. We have anywhere between 2 and 4 games remaining against anywhere between 0 and 4 top 50 opponents. It is my belief based on the committee's criteria and how the RPI is used that at this point any win that is not a top 50 win isn't going to move the needle for a top 20 team. It's almost as if it they don't count for anything unless you lose. At top 50 win MAY count for something, but to climb from a 5 to a 4 or from a 4 to a 3 it better be a top 10 win or multiple top 50 wins.

Here are the results required for a MOST LIKELY seed based on opinion with no science or data to back it up..

3 seed:
Finish 4-0 with 4 top 50 wins

3.5 seed:
Finish 4-0 with 3 top 50 wins

4 seed:
Finish 4-0 with 0 to 2 top 50 wins
Finish 3-1 with 2 or 3 top 50 wins

4.5 seed:
Finish 2-1 with 2 top 50 wins
Finish 3-1 with 0 or 1 top 50 win

5 seed:
Finish 2-1 with 0 or 1 top 50 win
Finish 1-1 with 0 or 1 top 50 win

6 seed
Finish 0-2

Thoughts??

 

[Boiler_HD]

I appreciate your work on this! I just don't think the committee is making this that easy. They have a predetermined opinion of the B1G and that won't change and it hurts us more than it helps us. While we have Virginia who can lose repeatedly and continue to move up in the rankings by winning a 1930's game against UNC.

 

[FirstDownB]

I appreciate your work on this! I just don't think the committee is making this that easy. They have a predetermined opinion of the B1G and that won't change and it hurts us more than it helps us. While we have Virginia who can lose repeatedly and continue to move up in the rankings by winning a 1930's game against UNC.

Keep in mind that any movement up and down by pundits at this point (other than simply reflecting movement in RPI) is just speculation. No one knows what the committee is thinking. Their initial release of rankings pretty much reflected the RPI rankings, and that is what they have leaned on in the past, so I am assuming my most likely scenarios based on the starting point today of #20 RPI, which is borderline 4/5 seed. There is no bias in that because it is simply a formula. A flawed one, but not a biased one.

Per your Virginia example, their loss to UNC doen't hurt them for the same reason our losses to Louisville and Nova aren't hurting us.

 

[Boiler_HD]

Keep in mind that any movement up and down by pundits at this point (other than simply reflecting movement in RPI) is just speculation. No one knows what the committee is thinking. Their initial release of rankings pretty much reflected the RPI rankings, and that is what they have leaned on in the past, so I am assuming my most likely scenarios based on the starting point today of #20 RPI, which is borderline 4/5 seed. There is no bias in that because it is simply a formula. A flawed one, but not a biased one.

I have no issues with your assumptions and predictions, I would suggest we couldn't drop to a 6 at this point but other than that i'm onboard. I am more annoyed that the RPI has any weight at this point, it is statistically flawed in every way.

 

[FirstDownB]

I have no issues with your assumptions and predictions, I would suggest we couldn't drop to a 6 at this point but other than that i'm onboard. I am more annoyed that the RPI has any weight at this point, it is statistically flawed in every way.

Totally agree on RPI and I have suggested some quick and easy improvements in other threads. In the meantime I'm just trying to dance with the devil..

 

[IndySouthsider]

If they beat NW and cut the nets. Guaranteed 3

 

[FirstDownB]

If they beat NW and cut the nets. Guaranteed 3

Probably. That unlikely scenario where some big upsets happen in the BTT and we don't play any of the top 50 teams would make me nervous. Beating NW then Iowa, Nebraska, and IU isn't going to vault our RPI into a 3 seed territory.

 

[boilernuke]

Keep in mind that any movement up and down by pundits at this point (other than simply reflecting movement in RPI) is just speculation. No one knows what the committee is thinking. Their initial release of rankings pretty much reflected the RPI rankings, and that is what they have leaned on in the past, so I am assuming my most likely scenarios based on the starting point today of #20 RPI, which is borderline 4/5 seed. There is no bias in that because it is simply a formula. A flawed one, but not a biased one.

Per your Virginia example, their loss to UNC doen't hurt them for the same reason our losses to Louisville and Nova aren't hurting us.

Gonzaga's RPI is 11, which should be a 3 seed. Wanna bet they are a 1 or at least a 2 seed?

 

[FirstDownB]

Gonzaga's RPI is 11, which should be a 3 seed. Wanna bet they are a 1 or at least a 2 seed?

Don't forget West Virginia! Both teams are much higher in other metrics than RPI.

 

[uelnesm]

Not to be wise guy. Does it matter???

Purdue needs to make it to sweet 16. Watching this team this year, we could cake walk into the sweet 16...we could just as easily lose in first round.

Honestly. I'm more inclined to want to play close to home at a decent time of day than worry about the seed.

We will be somewhere between a 3-6. none of those games will be "easy" for us.

I have been of the mindset that seeding is way over rated for a few years.

Location of game and time of day...that's the key. Thursday morning early game after playing in BIG champ game...that's a nightmare.

Friday mid day in Midwest after losing in BIG tournament on a Friday or Saturday. I'd take that any day.

 

[FirstDownB]

Not to be wise guy. Does it matter???

Purdue needs to make it to sweet 16. Watching this team this year, we could cake walk into the sweet 16...we could just as easily lose in first round.

Honestly. I'm more inclined to want to play close to home at a decent time of day than worry about the seed.

We will be somewhere between a 3-6. none of those games will be "easy" for us.

I have been of the mindset that seeding is way over rated for a few years.

Location of game and time of day...that's the key. Thursday morning early game after playing in BIG champ game...that's a nightmare.

Friday mid day in Midwest after losing in BIG tournament on a Friday or Saturday. I'd take that any day.

Keep in mind higher seeds get preferential location. I think Indy is out the window, but there's a good chance we get Milwaukee as a 3 or 4.

 

[threeeputtt]

If they beat NW and cut the nets. Guaranteed 3

It would certainly lock a 4 seed minimum as winning a regular conference title like the BT is worth some juice. Conference tournaments are becoming less important unless a no shot upsets to win auto seeding. The committees have most of their work already done

 

[BoilerFan#35]

Probably. That unlikely scenario where some big upsets happen in the BTT and we don't play any of the top 50 teams would make me nervous. Beating NW then Iowa, Nebraska, and IU isn't going to vault our RPI into a 3 seed territory.

Yes it is not all the teams ahead of us will win. If we win B1G season and tourney I think the committee will reward us

 

[TC4THREE]

Seems like you went through much effort to produce this but there are at least a dozen other teams that also factor into our seeding scenario. It's pretty impossible to narrow it down to just what we do without factoring how other teams finish as well. I think our range is probably 3-6 with the odds of 3 and 6 both seeming fairly remote at this point.

 

[FirstDownB]

Seems like you went through much effort to produce this but there are at least a dozen other teams that also factor into our seeding scenario. It's pretty impossible to narrow it down to just what we do without factoring how other teams finish as well. I think our range is probably 3-6 with the odds of 3 and 6 both seeming fairly remote at this point.

Just sparking discussion. 'Twas a day with a need for diversion..
Obviously oversimplified. But statistically I think you can say there is a "most probable seed" for each outcome. Whether I have them identified correctly is certainly up for debate. Obviously not everyone's cup of tea!

 

[boilernuke]

My impression is that if Purdue wins at least the next 2 games, they will likely be a 4 seed. Winning the next 3 will lock it up. No chance at a 3 seed and if they lose any of the next 2 games, it will be 5 seed. Just a gut feel.

 

[Purdue Grad in Texas]

My impression is that if Purdue wins at least the next 2 games, they will likely be a 4 seed. Winning the next 3 will lock it up. No chance at a 3 seed and if they lose any of the next 2 games, it will be 5 seed. Just a gut feel.

Pretty much agree here.....except, I think there is a very slim shot at a #3 if chaos ensues in other conferences like has happened with some of the Big Ten. But that window is just about shut if not already, IMO.

 

[lbodel]

Keep in mind higher seeds get preferential location. I think Indy is out the window, but there's a good chance we get Milwaukee as a 3 or 4.

I'm not sure if location makes much of a difference here. Purdue fans are not going to take over Milwaukee and make it some home court advantage. Then again, I'd also prefer to stay away from a region where our opponent has a home court advantage (which can happen anywhere), but at that point in the season - you're going to have to have some kahunas to win.

Keep in mind, we did not exactly kill it when we got to play in Chicago...and we played great out west in Portland vs. Washington with a home crowd.

I'd rather be rewarded with more favorable match-ups, although obviously that's not an either/or situation. People got so mad last year after our game against Arkansas Little Rock - and it was a frustrating game and it's always tough to lose in 2OT, however there was a reason many were picking it as an upset - it was a bad match-up for Purdue as Little Rock put pride in what gave Purdue fits last year - the press.

 

[Purdue Grad in Texas]

I'm not sure if location makes much of a difference here. Purdue fans are not going to take over Milwaukee and make it some home court advantage. Then again, I'd also prefer to stay away from a region where our opponent has a home court advantage (which can happen anywhere), but at that point in the season - you're going to have to have some kahunas to win.

Keep in mind, we did not exactly kill it when we got to play in Chicago...and we played great out west in Portland vs. Washington with a home crowd.

I'd rather be rewarded with more favorable match-ups, although obviously that's not an either/or situation. People got so mad last year after our game against Arkansas Little Rock - and it was a frustrating game and it's always tough to lose in 2OT, however there was a reason many were picking it as an upset - it was a bad match-up for Purdue as Little Rock put pride in what gave Purdue fits last year - the press.

Ibodel,

If Purdue is at least a 4-seed, there's not supposed to be a home-crowd disadvantage, at least in the first round. Of course, that may not help that much this year.

I guess I'm in the minority here going back to last year.....yeah it was a "so-called 5/12 upset," but I think the match-up wasn't that bad for Purdue.....and although give credit to UALR for winning, to me, it was more with Purdue's poor execution and some misfortune than some really bad match-up. Purdue let a 13-pt lead slip away late...and some of that was due to UALR (but there were plenty of missteps outside of being pressed)....and, it's not like they were behind most of the game or just couldn't solve some game-plan. But, that was last year.....more ahead this year.

JMHO

 

[FirstDownB]

I'm not sure if location makes much of a difference here. Purdue fans are not going to take over Milwaukee and make it some home court advantage. Then again, I'd also prefer to stay away from a region where our opponent has a home court advantage (which can happen anywhere), but at that point in the season - you're going to have to have some kahunas to win.

Keep in mind, we did not exactly kill it when we got to play in Chicago...and we played great out west in Portland vs. Washington with a home crowd.

I'd rather be rewarded with more favorable match-ups, although obviously that's not an either/or situation. People got so mad last year after our game against Arkansas Little Rock - and it was a frustrating game and it's always tough to lose in 2OT, however there was a reason many were picking it as an upset - it was a bad match-up for Purdue as Little Rock put pride in what gave Purdue fits last year - the press.

It makes a difference to a lot of local Purdue fans! lol

 

[FirstDownB]

Ibodel,

If Purdue is at least a 4-seed, there's not supposed to be a home-crowd disadvantage, at least in the first round. Of course, that may not help that much this year.

I guess I'm in the minority here going back to last year.....yeah it was a "so-called 5/12 upset," but I think the match-up wasn't that bad for Purdue.....and although give credit to UALR for winning, to me, it was more with Purdue's poor execution and some misfortune than some really bad match-up. Purdue let a 13-pt lead slip away late...and some of that was due to UALR (but there were plenty of missteps outside of being pressed)....and, it's not like they were behind most of the game or just couldn't solve some game-plan. But, that was last year.....more ahead this year.

JMHO

Couldn't have been THAT bad of a match-up. Up 63-49 with just over 4:00 to play and possession of the ball. That's probably about a 99% win probability.

The problem was our players lost focus and execution slipped. Uncharacteristic things started happening. Hill having his pocket picked, RD getting beat on defense, AJ having a rebound taken out of his hands, AJ and VE missing bunnies. We actually handled the press OK but went into a shell once the ball got across the half court line. And then LR got incredibly hot and a little lucky from deep. By the time any poise returned it was a 50/50 game.

The bigger problem with last year's team is we played a lot of minutes with only 2 outside shooters on the floor at any given time. If any single weakness was our downfall in that LR game, that was it.

 

[Purdue Grad in Texas]

Couldn't have been THAT bad of a match-up. Up 63-49 with just over 4:00 to play and possession of the ball. That's probably about a 99% win probability.

The problem was our players lost focus and execution slipped. Uncharacteristic things started happening. Hill having his pocket picked, RD getting beat on defense, AJ having a rebound taken out of his hands, AJ and VE missing bunnies. We actually handled the press OK but went into a shell once the ball got across the half court line. And then LR got incredibly hot and a little lucky from deep. By the time any poise returned it was a 50/50 game.

The bigger problem with last year's team is we played a lot of minutes with only 2 outside shooters on the floor at any given time. If any single weakness was our downfall in that LR game, that was it.

Thanks for the memories, FDB.

 

[lbodel]

Couldn't have been THAT bad of a match-up. Up 63-49 with just over 4:00 to play and possession of the ball. That's probably about a 99% win probability.

The problem was our players lost focus and execution slipped. Uncharacteristic things started happening. Hill having his pocket picked, RD getting beat on defense, AJ having a rebound taken out of his hands, AJ and VE missing bunnies. We actually handled the press OK but went into a shell once the ball got across the half court line. And then LR got incredibly hot and a little lucky from deep. By the time any poise returned it was a 50/50 game.

The bigger problem with last year's team is we played a lot of minutes with only 2 outside shooters on the floor at any given time. If any single weakness was our downfall in that LR game, that was it.

Not that I want to rehash this game (fun times!), but I'd probably point to the 25 points off turnovers they scored against us (the most a team had scored on us all season). So not only the press, but they played pretty decent defense. We shouldn't have lost, but it was playing a team that could expose our weaknesses - even just a little bit. Having limited scorers wasn't something unique to that game - we beat multiple ranked teams with that through the season.

 

[lbodel]

It makes a difference to a lot of local Purdue fans! lol

Ha! Fair enough. Greenville is a fun place too!

I thought MSG was a first round site, but not until Regionals.

 

[Broncos18]

I believe the one team that could be the biggest nightmare scenario for Purdue as a possible 4 vs 5 matchup would absolutely be West Virginia. Aggressive as hell and will press the entire game.

 

[lbodel]

I believe the one team that could be the biggest nightmare scenario for Purdue as a possible 4 vs 5 matchup would absolutely be West Virginia. Aggressive as hell and will press the entire game.

One game at a time....while I do not find it to be a trend by any means, we've tripped up each of our last first round games.

That being said, kudos to Painter - if you remember, Purdue scrimmaged WVU at the beginning of the season. He went and challenged the team with a system they would not be comfortable with.

 

[Broncos18]

One game at a time....while I do not find it to be a trend by any means, we've tripped up each of our last first round games.

That being said, kudos to Painter - if you remember, Purdue scrimmaged WVU at the beginning of the season. He went and challenged the team with a system they would not be comfortable with.

And WVU blew Purdue out of the water

 

[boilernuke]

Not that I want to rehash this game (fun times!), but I'd probably point to the 25 points off turnovers they scored against us (the most a team had scored on us all season). So not only the press, but they played pretty decent defense. We shouldn't have lost, but it was playing a team that could expose our weaknesses - even just a little bit. Having limited scorers wasn't something unique to that game - we beat multiple ranked teams with that through the season.

I wasn't at the game, but a few friends of mine that live in Denver (not Purdue fans) all said the arena turned into a ALR home game toward the end. There were Purdue fans there, but the overwhelming majoring was cheering for the upset. If Purdue gets a location closer to home, then there will be less of a chance of something similar happening.