Recent recruiting classes in a NIL world

[FirstDownB]

Rewind the past 7 or 8 recruiting classes. Which top 100 guys end up at Purdue in a post-NIL world? Assume current levels of funding/participation.

2022: n/a
2021: Kaufman- nope, Furst- maybe
2020: Ivey- probably not
2019: Newman - probably
2018: n/a
2017: Eastern- nope
2016: Edwards- yes, but transfer after 1 or 2 years
2015: Swanigan- 50/50

The 2022 class suddenly appears to be near the ceiling of what can be expected going forward, guys in the 100+ range who are making basketball decisions vs. business decisions.

 

[Fighter of the Nightman]

While you’re right, and I think it’s sad, I don’t see why Purdue would struggle any more than Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, etc. who seem to be ready for NIL. Yeah, it’s gross, but if that’s the reality … I guess I am suspicious of thinking PU alumni don’t have as much passion for hoops and at least a good chunk of the cash to spend as those other schools.

Again … not defending NIL. Just don’t see why it has to be bad for Purdue.

 

[Statey]

While you’re right, and I think it’s sad, I don’t see why Purdue would struggle any more than Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, etc. who seem to be ready for NIL. Yeah, it’s gross, but if that’s the reality … I guess I am suspicious of thinking PU alumni don’t have as much passion for hoops and at least a good chunk of the cash to spend as those other schools.

Again … not defending NIL. Just don’t see why it has to be bad for Purdue.

I have a similar take. The university is not standing in the way of a collective or local businesses putting these things together. In fact, there's an NIL director on staff; that's all you really need is someone to serve as the go-between putting interested parties in touch with one another (and help make sure they don't do it wrong and get the school/player in trouble). This guy is probably on the phone all day discussing opportunities with people/companies with money who might have an interest in marketing or advertising deals with players.

Where I do disagree with the above is in area of magnitude. While the alumni bases of IU/Mich/PU should be reasonably similar, the fan base sizes probably are not. I suspect Michigan and Indiana both have a significant chunk of supporters that are not alumni, and highly likely their percentage of non-alumni fans/supporters far exceeds that of Purdue. Those people have money to spend too, so if other schools in the conference have 2x the pool of interested people, for example, that is certainly a relative limitation for Purdue.

 

[FirstDownB]

While you’re right, and I think it’s sad, I don’t see why Purdue would struggle any more than Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, etc. who seem to be ready for NIL. Yeah, it’s gross, but if that’s the reality … I guess I am suspicious of thinking PU alumni don’t have as much passion for hoops and at least a good chunk of the cash to spend as those other schools.

Again … not defending NIL. Just don’t see why it has to be bad for Purdue.

You haven't spent enough time around the Purdue universe. It is more conservative and resistant to change than the others you mentioned. I have expressed my thoughts on this in other threads, how Purdue resists the 'arms race' initially, but then ultimately sees the writing on the wall and ponies up to remain competitive. We saw this with facilities and assistant salaries in basketball. We saw this with head coaching and facilities in football. We will see this in their lack of speed to embrace NIL. I think the same will happen with these latest changes but fear we might have to hit rock bottom before getting all aboard the train. This mentality makes us feel principled but only delays the inevitable. Ultimately you have to join the race, decide to be noncompetitive, or move to another conference.

I have a similar take. The university is not standing in the way of a collective or local businesses putting these things together. In fact, there's an NIL director on staff; that's all you really need is someone to serve as the go-between putting interested parties in touch with one another (and help make sure they don't do it wrong and get the school/player in trouble). This guy is probably on the phone all day discussing opportunities with people/companies with money who might have an interest in marketing or advertising deals with players.

Where I do disagree with the above is in area of magnitude. While the alumni bases of Indiana/Michigan/Purdue should be reasonably similar, the fan base sizes probably are not. I suspect Michigan and Indiana both have a significant chunk of supporters that are not alumni, and highly likely their percentage of non-alumni fans/supporters far exceeds that of Purdue. Those people have money to spend too, so if other schools in the conference have 2x the pool of interested people, for example, that is certainly a relative limitation for Purdue.

There is a big difference between "not standing the way" and "actively promoting". I have no inside knowledge on this, but from what I gather/guess I don't think Purdue is actively approaching its big time donors and asking them to divert a portion of their financial support from JPC to a NIL fund. That is what I believe will need to happen in order to remain competitive on the recruiting front because I don't think there is enough money currently on the sidelines. You've got to convince some whales to donate to NIL just like you did for Mackey and Ross Ade upgrades. A collection of $100k in pocket change for the entirety of Purdue athletics isn't going to support recruitment of top 100 guys that have been the cornerstones of our best teams in the past.

 

[Statey]

There is a big difference between "not standing the way" and "actively promoting". I have no inside knowledge on this, but from what I gather/guess I don't think Purdue is actively approaching its big time donors and asking them to divert a portion of their financial support from JPC to a NIL fund. That is what I believe will need to happen in order to remain competitive on the recruiting front because I don't think there is enough money currently on the sidelines. You've got to convince some whales to donate to NIL just like you did for Mackey and Ross Ade upgrades. A collection of $100k in pocket change for the entirety of Purdue athletics isn't going to support recruitment of top 100 guys that have been the cornerstones of our best teams in the past.

I don't disagree with the sentiment that it's going to take a lot of interest by a lot of people over a sustained period of time and not a one-time splash donation. And I don't have any inside info either. But what I do know is that Purdue has a full-time director dedicated to this very thing and the Boilermaker Alliance has been formed. One can argue it should have happened sooner, but that's neither here nor there at this point. Take one look at the board member roster of that collective and you'll see this isn't a group of ditch diggers and grocery store cashiers. This is a highly white-collar crowd of people in corporate positions of influence/power/money.

If Purdue's athletes can't get NIL money on par with most other power 5 schools, I'd argue it is likely to be driven more by lack of interest by people/companies around the state than it is by Purdue not actively promoting it enough. I mean, if the university itself is completely dropping the ball on facilitation, where are all the op-ed style news pieces from former athletes, business owners, wealthy alums, and others complaining that they're being held back?

 

[Wolegib]

Two things. 1 athletes don’t have to get their NIL money from Purdue boosters or people/businesses in the local area ! They get it from anybody/anywhere.

2. If Purdue athletes are not receiving a lot of nil money it’s because the people giving out the money do not see Purdue as a great product/brand to market their product!

arch manning is getting a lot of money and it’s not just from Texas boosters or Austin!

 

[KentuckyBoiler]

I have a similar take. The university is not standing in the way of a collective or local businesses putting these things together. In fact, there's an NIL director on staff; that's all you really need is someone to serve as the go-between putting interested parties in touch with one another (and help make sure they don't do it wrong and get the school/player in trouble). This guy is probably on the phone all day discussing opportunities with people/companies with money who might have an interest in marketing or advertising deals with players.

Where I do disagree with the above is in area of magnitude. While the alumni bases of IU/Mich/PU should be reasonably similar, the fan base sizes probably are not. I suspect Michigan and Indiana both have a significant chunk of supporters that are not alumni, and highly likely their percentage of non-alumni fans/supporters far exceeds that of Purdue. Those people have money to spend too, so if other schools in the conference have 2x the pool of interested people, for example, that is certainly a relative limitation for Purdue.

I sure there are a lot of IU basketball fans that would be willing to take out a second mortgage on their trailers to help out the team with NIL money

 

[FirstDownB]

I don't disagree with the sentiment that it's going to take a lot of interest by a lot of people over a sustained period of time and not a one-time splash donation. And I don't have any inside info either. But what I do know is that Purdue has a full-time director dedicated to this very thing and the Boilermaker Alliance has been formed. One can argue it should have happened sooner, but that's neither here nor there at this point. Take one look at the board member roster of that collective and you'll see this isn't a group of ditch diggers and grocery store cashiers. This is a highly white-collar crowd of people in corporate positions of influence/power/money.

If Purdue's athletes can't get NIL money on par with most other power 5 schools, I'd argue it is likely to be driven more by lack of interest by people/companies around the state than it is by Purdue not actively promoting it enough. I mean, if the university itself is completely dropping the ball on facilitation, where are all the op-ed style news pieces from former athletes, business owners, wealthy alums, and others complaining that they're being held back?

I would argue that the speed to embrace change in the Purdue culture (both establishment and fan base) is the relevant point here. Had Purdue been on the forefront with a strategy for when NIL came down (it has been discussed for years) it would likely have much more than $100k in the bank. The initial move was to dabble with a 'safe' approach, the exchange marketplace, which was highly ineffective at pulling in significant endorsement deals. What you are taking as big news about establishing an alliance is the absolute bare minimum for a big time D1 program and about 6-12 months late to the party. Conversely, Illinois launched their main collective in January with explicit publicly state goals of providing six figure deals and competing with Kentucky on the recruiting scene.

You are right though. At some point NIL funding, just like JPC donations, requires a level of participation of wealthy alumni/fans beyond the control of the schools. I can't deny that the same Purdue sensibility of being slow to embrace NIL and pay-for-play also permeates into its fan base with donors who are hesitant to put big sums of cash into the pockets of an 18 year old. We will see where this ends up. I am jumping ahead a bit with some of my thoughts and conclusions, as I think Purdue will have to get more aggressive with asking some of its backers to provide more support to NIL, even at the expense of JPC donations, because our programs can live off conference revenues for coaching salaries and facilities, but if we can't competed for top 100 recruits we can't compete on the court.

 

[Wolegib]

I see a lot of people blaming NIL but if you followed Purdue sports for the last 20 years, what you are seeing today is the same thing I’ve seen for the last 20 years. Painter got beat out on a top recruit by Izzo? This happens every single year! An elite pg decides not to play for painter, this happens every single year. And some slow big tall project will sign. This happens every single year. And some player with ties to the program signs. This happens every single year. Didn’t mount and Parkinson’s kid sign with Purdue?

Purdue loses pout on some elite recruit and signs somebody else who does ok. Painter develops a lot of lower ranked players. They over achieve and we win 20 games. This happens every single year.

 

[Wolegib]

I see a lot of people blaming NIL but if you followed Purdue sports for the last 20 years, what you are seeing today is the same thing I’ve seen for the last 20 years. Painter got beat out on a top recruit by Izzo? This happens every single year! An elite pg decides not to play for painter, this happens every single year. And some slow big tall project will sign. This happens every single year. And some player with ties to the program signs. This happens every single year. Didn’t mount and Parkinson’s kid sign with Purdue?

Purdue loses pout on some elite recruit and signs somebody else who does ok. Painter develops a lot of lower ranked players. They over achieve and we win 20 games. This happens every single year.

I don’t see Nil affecting Purdue. I see it affecting the teams that used to give players a lot of money under the table. If the player wants money, there were always certain schools they would sign with. And as memory serves me none of these schools that were giving players under the table ever succeeded better than Purdue

so stop blaming nil for players going elsewhere it’s not like this is new or never happened before.

 

[Statey]

I sure there are a lot of IU basketball fans that would be willing to take out a second mortgage on their trailers to help out the team with NIL money

Are you more a) irritated by these individuals' reckless personal finance decisions, or b) jealous of the potential benefit to the athletic department accruing at the expense of said recklessness?

 

[Purdue_BS_90]

Rewind the past 7 or 8 recruiting classes. Which top 100 guys end up at Purdue in a post-NIL world? Assume current levels of funding/participation.

2022: n/a
2021: Kaufman- nope, Furst- maybe
2020: Ivey- probably not
2019: Newman - probably
2018: n/a
2017: Eastern- nope
2016: Edwards- yes, but transfer after 1 or 2 years
2015: Swanigan- 50/50

The 2022 class suddenly appears to be near the ceiling of what can be expected going forward, guys in the 100+ range who are making basketball decisions vs. business decisions.

Sadly true. Worse yet, are Kaufman and Furst going to be NIL casualties after next year? I could see that happening if they have good seasons.

 

[boilerball2021]

I don’t see Nil affecting Purdue. I see it affecting the teams that used to give players a lot of money under the table. If the player wants money, there were always certain schools they would sign with. And as memory serves me none of these schools that were giving players under the table ever succeeded better than Purdue

so stop blaming nil for players going elsewhere it’s not like this is new or never happened before.

Well this is absolutely not true. DGL essentially said he was chasing the bag yesterday. We know Pack was bought by Miami. Tyrese Hunter made it clear he was going to the highest bidder when he decided to transfer from Iowa St. Those are at least 3 players we’ve lost because of NIL in the last few months.

 

[boilerball2021]

Sadly true. Worse yet, are Kaufman and Furst going to be NIL casualties after next year? I could see that happening if they have good seasons.

My only worry with one of them is there will still be a log jam at their position next year. We have 3 capable starters at the 4.

 

[FirstDownB]

Sadly true. Worse yet, are Kaufman and Furst going to be NIL casualties after next year? I could see that happening if they have good seasons.

Player retention needs to be the first firewall set up with whatever war chest is being assembled behind the scenes. And those two names, assuming they have strong seasons, need to be at the top of the list. It's too late for the 2023 recruiting class, but about 9 months from now those guys could have important decisions to make about their future.

 

[ulrey]

I sure there are a lot of IU basketball fans that would be willing to take out a second mortgage on their trailers to help out the team with NIL money

Someone is pissed

 

[Dekezar]

I see a lot of people blaming NIL but if you followed Purdue sports for the last 20 years, what you are seeing today is the same thing I’ve seen for the last 20 years. Painter got beat out on a top recruit by Izzo? This happens every single year! An elite pg decides not to play for painter, this happens every single year. And some slow big tall project will sign. This happens every single year. And some player with ties to the program signs. This happens every single year. Didn’t mount and Parkinson’s kid sign with Purdue?

Purdue loses pout on some elite recruit and signs somebody else who does ok. Painter develops a lot of lower ranked players. They over achieve and we win 20 games. This happens every single year.

I hope he doesn’t have eyes for Dominique Murphy of central

 

[tjreese]

Player retention needs to be the first firewall set up with whatever war chest is being assembled behind the scenes. And those two names, assuming they have strong seasons, need to be at the top of the list. It's too late for the 2023 recruiting class, but about 9 months from now those guys could have important decisions to make about their future.

I think those two are too well grounded. I’d be shocked if they chased the immediate paycheck