Rankings/Seeding

[TC4THREE]

I haven't paid too much attention to it up to this point but now that all we have are conference tournaments ahead of us, I'm curious how our rankings will play out and also our seeding.

I think I'm really hard-pressed to find 16 teams better than us right now and this coincides with our ranking. Given that, I think it's interesting that Lunardi has us as a 5 seed in his bracket. That would imply he has at least 16 teams ahead of us. His top seeds as of the beginning of Sunday:

1 - Kansas, Villanova, North Carolina, Virginia
2 - Xavier, Miami, Oklahoma, MSU
3 - IU, West Virginia, Oregon, Utah
4 - Duke, Maryland, Kentucky, Iowa State
5 - Iowa, Texas A&M, Arizona, Purdue

I don't think it matters that much if we are a 4 vs a 5 but it's worth noting that several of the teams he has above us as a 4 seed are below us in the polls. Duke was ranked 17/21 last week. Iowa State 21/20. Kentucky 22/19.

While there's not much difference between a 4 and a 5, I think there is significant difference between a 4 and a 3 and I was wondering if it were possible for us to play our way into a 3 seed. I don't see it as possible if you think we are a 5 now but perhaps if we are a 4 instead of a 5 right now we could maybe get there with a very strong Big Ten Tournament.

Personally, I think you can make an argument for us to be the 12th team over all Lunardi's 4 seeds and Utah. The way I see it, if we can beat Iowa on a neutral floor I think we should be a 4 seed and perhaps have a chance to play our way to a 3 if we can do work against IU amd MSU.

 

[BoilerBulldog]

I think there's a big difference between a 4 and 5, specifically in regards to our first round opponents. I would much rather play a 13 versus a 12. Lunardi has us playing Valpo in the first round, then Maryland in the second. That would a tough road to the S16.

 

[FirstDownB]

I think the teams in the 4's and 5's (and some of the 3's) are pretty much interchangeable right now. Depends which metrics you like. Lunardi appears to favor RPI, which is interesting because according to ESPN's BPI we are a 3 seed. Conference tournament outcomes could really shift things around

More than a 3 or 4 seed I want either the South (Louisville) or Midwest (Chicago). But that may be a stretch at this point.

 

[TC4THREE]

I think the teams in the 4's and 5's (and some of the 3's) are pretty much interchangeable right now. Depends which metrics you like. Lunardi appears to favor RPI, which is interesting because according to ESPN's BPI we are a 3 seed. Conference tournament outcomes could really shift things around

More than a 3 or 4 seed I want either the South (Louisville) or Midwest (Chicago). But that may be a stretch at this point.

It will be interesting to see how they seed things. I doubt they put us in the same half of a region as another Big Ten team and MSU and IU will almost certainly get preference for those regions. We probably want MSU and IU to be seeded as a 2 or a 3 if we hope to get in those regions because if we are 4/5 we would be in the opposite half of a potential bracket with them.

I think our likely matchup with Iowa is a key to us getting a preferable region. Right now my guess is they would probably get a 4/5 in Chicago before we would due to the fact that they beat us twice. If we knock them off in the BTT, it might allow us to jump them. My guess is that we are also ahead of Maryland entering the conference tournament but either way it is close. I think tournament play might still be a factor in seeding us against those two teams.

 

[FirstDownB]

It will be interesting to see how they seed things. I doubt they put us in the same half of a region as another Big Ten team and MSU and IU will almost certainly get preference for those regions. We probably want MSU and IU to be seeded as a 2 or a 3 if we hope to get in those regions because if we are 4/5 we would be in the opposite half of a potential bracket with them.

I think our likely matchup with Iowa is a key to us getting a preferable region. Right now my guess is they would probably get a 4/5 in Chicago before we would due to the fact that they beat us twice. If we knock them off in the BTT, it might allow us to jump them. My guess is that we are also ahead of Maryland entering the conference tournament but either way it is close. I think tournament play might still be a factor in seeding us against those two teams.

Side note on how things are shaping up.. There are not many teams this year vying for a 1 seed that would have a true home regional advantage in the NCAAT. Other than Villanova (Philadelphia), there isn't a quasi home court scenario like you typically see with UNC or Duke in Raleigh/Greensboro or Kentucky in Louisville or Kansas in KC/Tulsa.

Potential #1 seeds (regional "hosts"):
Villanova
Kansas
Virginia
MSU
North Carolina
Oklahoma
Xavier
Miami

Regional sites:
Anaheim (west) - ZERO west coast teams in contention for a 1 seed
Philadelphia (east) - This one is the doozie.. probably Nova's site if they get a 1 seed. Otherwise there are other semi-local options, UVa or UNC
Chicago (midwest) - we are closer than any of the above
Louisville (south) - only Xavier is closer

 

[honey_badger]

I haven't paid too much attention to it up to this point but now that all we have are conference tournaments ahead of us, I'm curious how our rankings will play out and also our seeding.

I think I'm really hard-pressed to find 16 teams better than us right now and this coincides with our ranking. Given that, I think it's interesting that Lunardi has us as a 5 seed in his bracket. That would imply he has at least 16 teams ahead of us. His top seeds as of the beginning of Sunday: EARLY EXIT teams in RED

1 - Kansas, Villanova, North Carolina, Virginia
2 - Xavier, Miami, Oklahoma, MSU
3 - IU, West Virginia, Oregon, Utah
4 - Duke, Maryland, Kentucky, Iowa State
5 - Iowa, Texas A&M, Arizona, Purdue

Personally, I think you can make an argument for us to be the 12th team over all Lunardi's 4 seeds and Utah. The way I see it, if we can beat Iowa on a neutral floor I think we should be a 4 seed and perhaps have a chance to play our way to a 3 if we can do work against IU amd MSU.

We have a LOT to play for, this is going to be exciting. Please click the above quote for red highlighted and blue highlighted text. thx!

 

[Do Dah Day]

Games that can help us seed higher:

ND beats Duke
Wisc beats Maryland
Purdue beats Iowa
OK beats Iowa State.
The TX A&M/Kentucky possible game won't change us.

If most of those happen, we stand a chance. Obviously, the converse for each of them would hurt us.

 

[FirstDownB]

Lunardi just moved us up to a 4 seed and moved Maryland down to a 5. The past 1-2 days must have been very influential! LOL

Or more likely he finally made the adjustments from the previous week's results. Makes you wonder if he spends as much time actually studying this stuff as he does flapping his gums on tv.

 

[TC4THREE]

Lunardi just moved us up to a 4 seed and moved Maryland down to a 5. The past 1-2 days must have been very influential! LOL

Or more likely he finally made the adjustments from the previous week's results. Makes you wonder if he spends as much time actually studying this stuff as he does flapping his gums on tv.

I love the bracket he has us in. Would prefer UNC as a 1 seed to Virginia but Virginia is not bad.

 

[BoilerFan#35]

Lunardi is doing terrible this year. He has like 5 mid majors with automatic bids which is ridiculous.

 

[BoilerBulldog]

I love the bracket he has us in. Would prefer UNC as a 1 seed to Virginia but Virginia is not bad.

UVA would really put pressure on our outside shooting. That would make me nervous but the recent shooting performance is promising.

 

[TC4THREE]

UVA would really put pressure on our outside shooting. That would make me nervous but the recent shooting performance is promising.

Any one seed will be tough in some aspect. I guess I just prefer them to Kansas and Villanova.