I want to say Boilers win but Iowa State scares the crap out of me. I think the game is a 50-50 toss up, but because of their style against ours, I just don't like the match up for us.
They have very athletic and skilled guards. The dribble, pass and shoot very very well. Monte Morris is going to be a solid NBA player IMO. We will struggle to keep them in front of us, so Iowa State offensively will have their way. If they hit their open 3s, we will likely lose. If we can force them under their average percentage wise or they just have a bad shooting night, we have a solid chance. The dribble drives may lead to foul trouble for Haas and or Swanigan after we get into defensive rotations after the initial breakdown.
We have a significant advantage down low. However, I feel like several things have to go right for us to have success down low. First, the refs. Not blaming them, however, during some games, our bigs and their effectiveness can be taken away based on how the game is called. (Unlike Iowa State's ability to dribble drive past us, refs don't affect that. So, in a way, ISU can control the game more than we can). If they let Haas get abused and call him for ticky tack fouls, it will be really, really tough for us. Same for Swanigan. Both these guys need to stay out of foul trouble which will be tough since we will have a hard time keeping their guards in front of us. Secondly, it is going to be a LOT harder this game to feed the post because they will extend pressure on our guards well beyond what other teams do. I also think that our outside shooters won't get as many clean looks as normal due to their D, so when we get them, we need to convert. It would be really nice to see Dakota, Cline or C Boogie have a nice shooting night.
We absolutely need a good game from Haas. If he is missing bunnies and turning it over like he has been, we lose. We need to make them pay down low. Get good position, pin his man and when we turns to make his move go straight up and stop using the chicken wing to those avoidable offensive fouls. Tough to do because Haas gets abused every game, so sometimes I think his little chicken wings are a subconscious fight or push back on the D, but in the end he suffers with fouls and we suffer as a team.
ISU's strength is our weakness and vice versa. It would be nice to see Morris get in foul trouble.
It should be a great game between 2 great teams. I hope the Boilers can pull it out. More than anything, I just want to see us really play together, fight, play smart and go for it. If we do that, we can all hold our heads up high regardless of the final score.
It would be great to see one of our outside shooters have a career night. It would be great to keep turnovers under 13, but I think ISU is athletic and disruptive, so some turnovers will be expected. We need to kill them on the boards - might be tricky with so many 3s they shoot and long rebounds. So, rebounding from our guards will also be most important.
This game will come down to the little things. It's nerve wracking and exciting. Let's pull it out.