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Purdue and Memphis by the numbers should it happen?

tjreese

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Sep 27, 2008
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Hopefully the data was correct.

Purdue shoots around 76 shots/game. 55 shots are 2s making 46.3% and a bit under 21 threes making 33.05%. Purdue gets to the FT line almost 21 times making a bit over 15 or 74%. Purdue’s offense has 62% 2pt shots and 38% 3 pt shots…knowing the foul attempts many times would have resulted in a shot at some place.

Memphis shoots around 70 shots/game. 49 shots taken are 2s (70% of their shots) making 52% and 21 shots are 3s (30% of their shots making 35%. Memphis gets to the FT line 24 times making about 18 or 74% of the FT.

With the Memphis schedule they shot 5 times less than Purdue with 8% more taken for 2s and 8% less for 3s and got 3 more Fts per game than Purdue.

Purdue averaged 25 D boards to Memphis D 27 boards and Purdue had 11 Off boards to their 10 Off boards. Purdue had 4.8 steals to Memphis 10.7 steals while Purdue had 3.6 blocks to Memphis 5.6 blocks. Purdue has 16 assists to Memphis 20 assists, but Memphis turns it over almost 17 times a game whereas Purdue turns it over 11 times a game. Memphis steals 10.7 and then turns it over 17 times for a minus 6 possessions whereas Purdue steals it 4.8 and turns it over 11 times for a 6-possession loss as well.

The numbers may not translate due to teams that made up each schedule as well as how those were called and/or any games that were definite outliers. Having never seen Memphis, the numbers indicate what we should expect in early rounds…teams that are athletic, seasoned players that will be playing with an urgency. The athleticism is indicated by their steals and blocks . A 5’11” guard is their main player with a 6’9” forward and not far behind are six players between 5 PPG and 10PPG. Purdue could use some O out of the 2,3 and 4 spots. I hate for Braden to run Purdue’s offense and then must defend their 5’11” guard who probably is very athletic, but unsure if Brandon can keep up as well. If so, you like an athletic Brandon on an athletic 5’11” guard since he runs the show…but can’t forget about their 6’9” Forward as well and have no idea "where" he gets his points. It does appear that he takes about two 3s a game and makes one. The rest are inside the arc with him getting to the line 4 times or so. As usual, expect quick, athletic slapping and holding on Zach unless the refs call the fouls.
 
I think the game plan is clear:

1) Play solid defense and force turnovers.

2) Take good shots. Hopefully make at a respectable % and get plenty of offensive rebounds.

(1) will limit Memphis’ ability to get set for the press, and (2) will prevent them from getting out in transition and running the floor on us in other ways.

If we can do that, I think we limit Memphis’ main strength and win handily.
 
Kendric Davis is a beast, if they’re Purdue’s opponent that’s the guy that they’ll need to stop.
 
I've watched them twice, once against Houston (they lost by 2) and Cincy (won by 7). So I'm far from an expert on them. But I know they are athletic and play aggressive. Like most teams we play, if we can get into our offense Edey will have big advantage. Not exactly an original thought here, but we have to handle pressure. They will bring it in spades. Not just the full court, but half court too. Poise and execution would be the key.
 
Good post, TJ. Funny thing is that sometimes the math doesn't always add up. The end of the Penn State game is an excellent example. What we witnessed was an uncanny perfect storm that almost led to Purdue's demise... (1) Our missed free throws, three pointers, layups and tip ins suddenly just wouldn't drop. (2) Fouls called against us that hadn't been called all game, and on the other end aggressive D that wasn't penalized for amping up the intensity. and (3) Penn State suddenly getting red hot from 3. Everything aligned, and everything right at the worst time.

So....
If anyone attending the NCAAT games sees a Shaman dressed up in IU garb, please do Boiler nation a favor. Knock him to the ground and hold him in a figure four leg-lock until the authorities arrive.
 
Good post, TJ. Funny thing is that sometimes the math doesn't always add up. The end of the Penn State game is an excellent example. What we witnessed was an uncanny perfect storm that almost led to Purdue's demise... (1) Our missed free throws, three pointers, layups and tip ins suddenly just wouldn't drop. (2) Fouls called against us that hadn't been called all game, and on the other end aggressive D that wasn't penalized for amping up the intensity. and (3) Penn State suddenly getting red hot from 3. Everything aligned, and everything right at the worst time.

So....
If anyone attending the NCAAT games sees a Shaman dressed up in IU garb, please do Boiler nation a favor. Knock him to the ground and hold him in a figure four leg-lock until the authorities arrive.
I fully get numbers against different teams that may or may not be applicable between the teams. The numbers do show tendencies though. I was surprised that this team shot less 3s than Purdue and more 2s by about 8% in each case and that they got to the line as much as they did since they are shooting more 2s. Has me wondering how similar it is to North Texas as far as PG scorer and athletic D on Zach. Purdue overhelped in that game leaving others open to hit threes and couldn't get the ball inside then. I think Purdue is better in both cases. One thing...IO don't expect a 5'11 guard to make it difficult for entry passes without leaving Braden. Zach may need to post and repost to see how they are defending and make a dig less effective should they dig on ball side. Should get a better feel once we see them Friday late. Biggest issue is all the seniors and those mature bodies and minds...
 
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To your point, I hope we don't overhelp in the post if we draw Memphis. We haven't fared well on 3pt% D in games where we were forced to double the opponent's big. With their biggest guy at 6'9", why not let him get his points and instead focus on pressuring the perimeter? Zach can hold his own on the block. Only one caveat...their 6'9" starter is shooting over 40% from 3. Their other bigs don't shoot 3's. Another important point against a team like Memphis is to keep fresh bodies on the court. Jenkins may need to spell Smith more than usual. Maybe Newman rotates occasionally to help guard the point. Can't expect a true freshman to guard their best player AND run the offense all game.
 
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To your point, I hope we don't overhelp in the post if we draw Memphis. We haven't fared well on 3pt% D in games where we were forced to double the opponent's big. With their biggest guy at 6'9", why not let him get his points and instead focus on pressuring the perimeter? Zach can hold his own. Another important point against a team like Memphis is to keep fresh bodies on the court. Jenkins may need to spell Smith more than usual. Maybe Newman rotates occasionally to help guard the point. Can't expect a true freshman to guard their best player AND run the offense all game.
Memphis doesn't really shoot 3 pointers. May be less of a concern than you think.
 
Just edited my reply. Their 6'9" starter is shooting over 40% from 3. This could be another Hunter Dickenson game where their big just goes off behind the arc. Or Henn from Penn State.

As a Purdue fan, I fully expect the statistical averages of our opponents go out the window...
 
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Hopefully the data was correct.

Purdue shoots around 76 shots/game. 55 shots are 2s making 46.3% and a bit under 21 threes making 33.05%. Purdue gets to the FT line almost 21 times making a bit over 15 or 74%. Purdue’s offense has 62% 2pt shots and 38% 3 pt shots…knowing the foul attempts many times would have resulted in a shot at some place.

Memphis shoots around 70 shots/game. 49 shots taken are 2s (70% of their shots) making 52% and 21 shots are 3s (30% of their shots making 35%. Memphis gets to the FT line 24 times making about 18 or 74% of the FT.

With the Memphis schedule they shot 5 times less than Purdue with 8% more taken for 2s and 8% less for 3s and got 3 more Fts per game than Purdue.

Purdue averaged 25 D boards to Memphis D 27 boards and Purdue had 11 Off boards to their 10 Off boards. Purdue had 4.8 steals to Memphis 10.7 steals while Purdue had 3.6 blocks to Memphis 5.6 blocks. Purdue has 16 assists to Memphis 20 assists, but Memphis turns it over almost 17 times a game whereas Purdue turns it over 11 times a game. Memphis steals 10.7 and then turns it over 17 times for a minus 6 possessions whereas Purdue steals it 4.8 and turns it over 11 times for a 6-possession loss as well.

The numbers may not translate due to teams that made up each schedule as well as how those were called and/or any games that were definite outliers. Having never seen Memphis, the numbers indicate what we should expect in early rounds…teams that are athletic, seasoned players that will be playing with an urgency. The athleticism is indicated by their steals and blocks . A 5’11” guard is their main player with a 6’9” forward and not far behind are six players between 5 PPG and 10PPG. Purdue could use some O out of the 2,3 and 4 spots. I hate for Braden to run Purdue’s offense and then must defend their 5’11” guard who probably is very athletic, but unsure if Brandon can keep up as well. If so, you like an athletic Brandon on an athletic 5’11” guard since he runs the show…but can’t forget about their 6’9” Forward as well and have no idea "where" he gets his points. It does appear that he takes about two 3s a game and makes one. The rest are inside the arc with him getting to the line 4 times or so. As usual, expect quick, athletic slapping and holding on Zach unless the refs call the fouls.
They'll see a difference shooting 2s with Big Maple staring em down .
 
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Just edited my reply. Their 6'9" starter is shooting over 40% from 3. This could be another Hunter Dickenson game where their big just goes off behind the arc. Or Henn from Penn State.

As a Purdue fan, I fully expect the statistical averages of our opponents go out the window...

You also have to fully factor in the expected couple of banked threes of a Purdue opponent. Haha.
 
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You would hope, but they could be long 2s or the 6'9" guy may be athletic enough that it keeps Zach worried about the lob. I'm just guessing on things having never seen them.
plus the things we continually to see like not corralling defensive rebounds and letting the other team to bury a 3 right after. Happened yesterday again, I think psu was down 10 or 12 and they miss an easy 5 ft er and Gillis and TKR are together and can't grab ball it gets thrown out to a wide open 3, the run continues.
 
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