Purdue +10
- Thread starter FirstDownB
- Start date
It is a lot of points, but given where we've been as a program, this may not be bad. The season is already a success for me. If we compete with UM, all the better.
Purdue is blazing 3-0 ATS with margins of 32.5, 20, and 37.5.
Obviously beating the spread by 20+ every game cannot continue indefinitely. Adjustments are made from game to game based on prior results and bettors adjust their expectations. But the trend has been (so far) the expectations are adjusting much too slowly. Purdue +10 tells me there has been some adjustment for this week's game, but the low preseason expectations still hang overhead - otherwise one would have to believe that a few weeks ago Michigan would be favored by 30 or 40 points in this game.
I'm usually pretty even keeled here, but this jumps out at me. I predicted a close win against Ohio and a close loss to Mizzou. This looks like easy money to me. I see this being a lower scoring contest. 10 point spread in a low scoring game is a LOT of points. Both teams are going to try to control the clock IMO.
Obviously beating the spread by 20+ every game cannot continue indefinitely. Adjustments are made from game to game based on prior results and bettors adjust their expectations. But the trend has been (so far) the expectations are adjusting much too slowly. Purdue +10 tells me there has been some adjustment for this week's game, but the low preseason expectations still hang overhead - otherwise one would have to believe that a few weeks ago Michigan would be favored by 30 or 40 points in this game.
I'm usually pretty even keeled here, but this jumps out at me. I predicted a close win against Ohio and a close loss to Mizzou. This looks like easy money to me. I see this being a lower scoring contest. 10 point spread in a low scoring game is a LOT of points. Both teams are going to try to control the clock IMO.
Ya, 10 seems like a lot to me.
I definitely expect Michigan to be the favorite, and their defense has been spectacular so far. But, I look for Purdue to keep turning heads Saturday. We'll see.
I definitely expect Michigan to be the favorite, and their defense has been spectacular so far. But, I look for Purdue to keep turning heads Saturday. We'll see.
+6.5 is what my guy has it at. Probably a little more realistic IMO.
You have to think though, lots of dumb money streaming in from Michigan fans anyway week to week so they'll get action on them no matter what the line. The +10 is there to entice the big money guys to take us!
You have to think though, lots of dumb money streaming in from Michigan fans anyway week to week so they'll get action on them no matter what the line. The +10 is there to entice the big money guys to take us!
Looking at everything, seems close to about right, FDB. Before the season started, I would have thought this was an 18+ game. First meeting since 2012. National coverage on FOX. A great early opportunity for Purdue.
The Boilers have been a pleasant surprise so far....but this is a big step up in the level of talent and intensity on both sides of the ball. Michigan hasn't been lighting it up, but they are in the top 10 right now. IMO, this will be a very good measurement game for how things are shaping up.....really don't know what to expect......which is maybe a very good thing. Going to have to limit the mistakes but stay aggressive.
In any event, looking forward to seeing a big home crowd. For those going, enjoy the atmosphere and the game.
Think about it. Both Cincy and Air Force are good teams with a track record of having winning seasons in the recent past. They were 34 and 26 point dawgs. Florida was a 5 point dawg. That's a lot of respect given to Purdue.
+10 is what Sagarin has the line at and I don't think you'd accuse his computer of trying to entice anybody to bet on anything. It's simply the number that I think most objective projection systems come up with at this point.
UL kept shooting themselves in the **** with penalties and fumbles on the goal line.
i doubt UM does that. the difference in qb's on these teams is huge though.
mighty boilers look good on defense again and score 24+ pts. michigan won't score that many
:-] boiler up
i doubt UM does that. the difference in qb's on these teams is huge though.
mighty boilers look good on defense again and score 24+ pts. michigan won't score that many
:-] boiler up
I was sleeping on that 34 point line against Cincy! Both the Cincy and Air Force lines were excessive, probably due to over-valuing the UM win against Florida. At this point it doesn't matter what those lines were, only the results. Are we a touchdown better than Air Force? I don't know. But yes, the more I look at this the more fair +10 or especially +9.5 (there is a big difference actually) appears to be.
What's with the "****"? We're not allowed to say "foot" on this forum?
The stat that stood out for me was Red zone scores. Purdue is 13-13 scoring in the Red zone, and only 3 of those were field goals. Michigan on the other hand has only scored 1 touchdown in the Red zone all year in 10 attempts.
