Purdue’s margin for error, and why I like this team’s chances in March

[DavidL]

For Purdue to lose a game, SEVERAL things have to go against our Boilers.

Edey having a sub par game - that did not happen.

Edey limited by foul trouble - happened in the first half, probably 5 more minutes on the bench with that bogus charge call in the first half (IU fans should be sending thank you cards to Larry Sciotto, as he called BOTH of Edey’s bogus charge calls in the game).

Our freshmen playing like freshmen - check.

Turnover discrepancy - check. Made worse by several runouts for IU.

Free throw percentage - PU shoots 75% for the season (59%) yesterday. IU shoots 71% for the season (83%) yesterday. And PU has shot 20% more FT’s than IU over the course of the season (even yesterday).

Other team shooting percentage exceeds season averages - check.

Terrible bench play - that did not happen.

And despite all that went against us, we were in a position to win if a couple of plays go our way. Cut the list of things going against us in half, and we win comfortably.

We will learn from this loss, and be better for it. Sucks that it happened against IU, but oh well, shrug any move on.

We will be a very tough out in March. Enjoying the journey!!!

 

[FordDiningCourtCheeseSauce]

Looked at some boiler FT data (just taken from espn box scores) for different game outcomes/environments:

"Bad" games	FT
@ FSU	22-31 (71%)
@ Neb	12-20 (60%)
Rutgers (L)	19-28 (68%)
@ IU (L)	10-17 (59%)

Close wins	FT
@ OSU	8-10 (80%)
MD	16-18 (89%)
@ Mich	16-20 (80%)
@ MSU	16-18 (89%)

Neutral wins	FT
v WVU	24-28 (86%)
v Zaga	16-22 (73%)
v Duke	16-19 (84%)
v Davidson	28-37 (76%)

Yesterday was quite an outlier. This team is more than decent from the line. Fortunately, tourney games won't be in an environment as virulent as Ass hall and its threat of falling debris.

 

[depthcharge623]

Fortunately, tourney games won't be in an environment as virulent as Ass hall and its threat of falling debris.

Especially if we can somehow still get Columbus/Louisville. Both could be very favorable.

I still remember the atmosphere for the S16 and E8 in 2018 in Louisville. Against Tennessee, it seemed like an even split… depending on the momentum it felt like a home or away game. Against Virginia it really felt like a home game. Purdue fans were absolutely rocking the KFC Yum Center! I would love to have that environment again!

 

[Bleedinggoldandblack]

Looked at some boiler FT data (just taken from espn box scores) for different game outcomes/environments:

"Bad" games	FT
@ FSU	22-31 (71%)
@ Neb	12-20 (60%)
Rutgers (L)	19-28 (68%)
@ IU (L)	10-17 (59%)

Close wins	FT
@ OSU	8-10 (80%)
MD	16-18 (89%)
@ Mich	16-20 (80%)
@ MSU	16-18 (89%)

Neutral wins	FT
v WVU	24-28 (86%)
v Zaga	16-22 (73%)
v Duke	16-19 (84%)
v Davidson	28-37 (76%)

Yesterday was quite an outlier. This team is more than decent from the line. Fortunately, tourney games won't be in an environment as virulent as Ass hall and its threat of falling debris.

Wow....pretty clear , thanks

 

[Bleedinggoldandblack]

For Purdue to lose a game, SEVERAL things have to go against our Boilers.

Edey having a sub par game - that did not happen.

Edey limited by foul trouble - happened in the first half, probably 5 more minutes on the bench with that bogus charge call in the first half (IU fans should be sending thank you cards to Larry Sciotto, as he called BOTH of Edey’s bogus charge calls in the game).

Our freshmen playing like freshmen - check.

Turnover discrepancy - check. Made worse by several runouts for IU.

Free throw percentage - PU shoots 75% for the season (59%) yesterday. IU shoots 71% for the season (83%) yesterday. And PU has shot 20% more FT’s than IU over the course of the season (even yesterday).

Other team shooting percentage exceeds season averages - check.

Terrible bench play - that did not happen.

And despite all that went against us, we were in a position to win if a couple of plays go our way. Cut the list of things going against us in half, and we win comfortably.

We will learn from this loss, and be better for it. Sucks that it happened against IU, but oh well, shrug any move on.

We will be a very tough out in March. Enjoying the journey!!!

Good overview