CHICAGO - Greetings from the United Center, where if you ask me, Purdue can sew up its place in the NCAA Tournament today with a win over Penn State.
No, a win over the Nittany Lions in itself isn't the lynchpin for Purdue's NCAA résumé, but in context, it just might be.
In light of seemingly every bubble team but Indiana wetting the bed yesterday and in light of the fact that a win today would probably bring with it the modest strength-of-schedule/RPI bump that comes with setting foot on the floor against Wisconsin even in defeat, I think today is the day if Purdue can win.
Penn State's playing its third game in less than 48 hours and Purdue its first game since Saturday.
It's a battle between head of steam and fresh legs. After two separate six-game losing streaks this Big Ten season, Penn State comes into today's game the winner of three in a row, including a win at Minnesota on D.J. Newbill's buzzer-beating three and yesterday's surprising win over fifth-seeded Iowa, the Big Ten's hottest team to close the regular season.
Again, don't underestimate momentum here. For Penn State, that could trump the wear-and-tear factor, including for Newbill who's played 74 minutes the past two days with the burden of carrying his team offensively.
Newbill will be a handful again for Purdue after he got 37 in the first meeting between these two teams. He won't be getting 37 today, I would suspect. Purdue is a much better defensive team today than it was when it needed to minor miracle to win in State College.
Newbill didn't hang 37 on Big Ten Defensive Player-of-the-Year Rapheal Davis in that game, but rather on Purdue collectively, splitting its ball-screen defense so many times after Davis had been taken out of the play. The shots Newbill made on Davis, a lot of them were really, really tough shots. I know he's a great scorer, but I don't know if that sort of performance is repeatable. I mean, that was the career-high for a player who's scored more than 2,000 college points.
Purdue will be better today, I'd imagine, and Penn State probably won't endure the same statistical anomaly it got from Brandon Taylor going 3-of-3 from three-point range. He shot 35 percent in Big Ten play.
At the same time, the likelihood of A.J. Hammons turning the ball over seven times is probably pretty remote. Hammons is a better player today then he was in Round 1 against Penn State and aside from the turnovers, Hammons was very good in that first game.
Point being: Purdue overcame a lot of stuff in the first meeting with Penn State and still won. Now, this game will be played on a neutral floor, not there's all that much difference between Bryce-Jordan and a neutral court, but Purdue will have more fans here today.
Purdue's a better team today than it was on Jan. 17 and it has everything in the world to play for today.
Today's the classic example of Purdue needing to play good team defense on Newbill, concede his 20 points on 22 shots and get a couple turnovers off of him. He has to be made to work for everything he gets.
So does Penn State in general.
The turnover issue becomes magnified now that these games matter so damn much.
If Purdue simply is incapable of getting through a game without turning it over 15 times, then fine. Its shown it can win in spite of itself. But it can't keep letting those mistakes produce a huge chunk of its opponents' scoring. The Boilermakers have been too good a straight-up defensive team to allow that to continue.
You saw the calculation in our story the other day that 23 percent of opponents' points this season have come off turnovers. I re-ran the math on that a couple times to make sure it was right, because it seemed inflated.
Pretty sure it's correct.
Purdue has too much at stake today to shoot itself in the foot.
I know I already said that this is the game in which Purdue can clinch its NCAA spot, but nonetheless, this is a high-risk/low-reward game.
If the music stopped today and everyone went lunging for a chair, Purdue would have one.
A loss today would be devastating, though, the flip side to Purdue drawing an "easier" matchup today with Penn State bouncing Iowa.
Like I said, the bubble has been awful the past few days. Purdue has to avoid being next.
I have liked Purdue's NCAA chances of late in particular because I've just felt like if the Big Ten was going to lose a bid, Purdue hasn't been first in line for the guillotine. Recently beheaded Illinois and reprieved-for-now Indiana have been, in my opinion. A Purdue loss today and it's conceivable IU flips it even with a loss to Maryland. Indiana delivered yesterday the sort of emphatic performance Purdue will want to deliver today.
Once again, don't underestimate the possibility that Penn State's blood is really flowing now after the past two days and that might trump possible fatigue.
But when you look at the matchup and situational context, I just really like Purdue's chances today.
You know the drill by now: Feel free to discuss the game in this thread or others.
We'll have tons of coverage to come afterward.
No, a win over the Nittany Lions in itself isn't the lynchpin for Purdue's NCAA résumé, but in context, it just might be.
In light of seemingly every bubble team but Indiana wetting the bed yesterday and in light of the fact that a win today would probably bring with it the modest strength-of-schedule/RPI bump that comes with setting foot on the floor against Wisconsin even in defeat, I think today is the day if Purdue can win.
Penn State's playing its third game in less than 48 hours and Purdue its first game since Saturday.
It's a battle between head of steam and fresh legs. After two separate six-game losing streaks this Big Ten season, Penn State comes into today's game the winner of three in a row, including a win at Minnesota on D.J. Newbill's buzzer-beating three and yesterday's surprising win over fifth-seeded Iowa, the Big Ten's hottest team to close the regular season.
Again, don't underestimate momentum here. For Penn State, that could trump the wear-and-tear factor, including for Newbill who's played 74 minutes the past two days with the burden of carrying his team offensively.
Newbill will be a handful again for Purdue after he got 37 in the first meeting between these two teams. He won't be getting 37 today, I would suspect. Purdue is a much better defensive team today than it was when it needed to minor miracle to win in State College.
Newbill didn't hang 37 on Big Ten Defensive Player-of-the-Year Rapheal Davis in that game, but rather on Purdue collectively, splitting its ball-screen defense so many times after Davis had been taken out of the play. The shots Newbill made on Davis, a lot of them were really, really tough shots. I know he's a great scorer, but I don't know if that sort of performance is repeatable. I mean, that was the career-high for a player who's scored more than 2,000 college points.
Purdue will be better today, I'd imagine, and Penn State probably won't endure the same statistical anomaly it got from Brandon Taylor going 3-of-3 from three-point range. He shot 35 percent in Big Ten play.
At the same time, the likelihood of A.J. Hammons turning the ball over seven times is probably pretty remote. Hammons is a better player today then he was in Round 1 against Penn State and aside from the turnovers, Hammons was very good in that first game.
Point being: Purdue overcame a lot of stuff in the first meeting with Penn State and still won. Now, this game will be played on a neutral floor, not there's all that much difference between Bryce-Jordan and a neutral court, but Purdue will have more fans here today.
Purdue's a better team today than it was on Jan. 17 and it has everything in the world to play for today.
Today's the classic example of Purdue needing to play good team defense on Newbill, concede his 20 points on 22 shots and get a couple turnovers off of him. He has to be made to work for everything he gets.
So does Penn State in general.
The turnover issue becomes magnified now that these games matter so damn much.
If Purdue simply is incapable of getting through a game without turning it over 15 times, then fine. Its shown it can win in spite of itself. But it can't keep letting those mistakes produce a huge chunk of its opponents' scoring. The Boilermakers have been too good a straight-up defensive team to allow that to continue.
You saw the calculation in our story the other day that 23 percent of opponents' points this season have come off turnovers. I re-ran the math on that a couple times to make sure it was right, because it seemed inflated.
Pretty sure it's correct.
Purdue has too much at stake today to shoot itself in the foot.
I know I already said that this is the game in which Purdue can clinch its NCAA spot, but nonetheless, this is a high-risk/low-reward game.
If the music stopped today and everyone went lunging for a chair, Purdue would have one.
A loss today would be devastating, though, the flip side to Purdue drawing an "easier" matchup today with Penn State bouncing Iowa.
Like I said, the bubble has been awful the past few days. Purdue has to avoid being next.
I have liked Purdue's NCAA chances of late in particular because I've just felt like if the Big Ten was going to lose a bid, Purdue hasn't been first in line for the guillotine. Recently beheaded Illinois and reprieved-for-now Indiana have been, in my opinion. A Purdue loss today and it's conceivable IU flips it even with a loss to Maryland. Indiana delivered yesterday the sort of emphatic performance Purdue will want to deliver today.
Once again, don't underestimate the possibility that Penn State's blood is really flowing now after the past two days and that might trump possible fatigue.
But when you look at the matchup and situational context, I just really like Purdue's chances today.
You know the drill by now: Feel free to discuss the game in this thread or others.
We'll have tons of coverage to come afterward.
