I picked No. 22 Indiana to win tonight's game against Purdue for the very same reason I picked Iowa to win at Purdue even when I suspected the Boilermakers would win.
(Feelings are on thing, picks are another.)
That reason: I just don't know if I trust Purdue to do what it has to do here. Even when it's been winning lately, it's been doing so despite flaws that could easily have proved fatal.
This a scary offensive matchup for Purdue, and the Boilermakers have been prone to shoddy ball-screen defense up top, of which they'll see a lot tonight, the central figure being the best it has seen so far in Yogi Ferrell, whose skill set is better for those types of situations that Demetrius Jackson and Melo Trimble, because he's so fast and such a dangerous pull-up shooter from three. You can't give him any space and Purdue has been given everyone too much space.
I don't know who's going to guard Troy Williams, maybe the key player in this whole game. Figuring 4 man Vince Edwards may have to guard IU "5" Collin Hartman to check him around the three-point line, that likely would leave Purdue's center, whoever it is, to guard the worst shooter on the floor for Indiana, Williams.
Remember how Terone Johnson chopped up opposing big men off the dribble in the same situations in 2012? Well, same deal, only Williams is better and way more athletic than Johnson was, is or ever will be.
I would trust small ball in a game like this over the opposite extreme considering Indiana's talent level in executing it. These guys are outstanding shooters and the matchups they can create tonight are daunting.
The flip side is that Purdue will create daunting matchups, too.
But to maximize their value, the Boilermakers have to do three things: 1) make outside jumpers, which Purdue is not doing right now except when they matter most 2) get their big men to make free throws, which has not been a strength and 3) don't turn the ball over, which has actually been a strength lately. A.J. Hammons has one turnover the past two games in big minutes. That's amazing considering his track record this season.
Indiana can not guard those guards with anything but a gaggle of players. Yes, a gaggle.
Indiana will zone Purdue into oblivion and if the Boilermakers can't make shots from the outside, it will work.
The reality is that when you play through the post, as opposed to playing for quick threes or up-tempo dribble penetration and when you play to maximize field goal attempts over maximizing possessions - and yes, they are different - so much more goes into it, there's so much more room for error, so many more opportunities for turnovers.
Purdue needs its most efficient game offensively, perhaps, to win tonight. Or it needs IU to run cold. Or it needs a Sterling Carter to come out of nowhere tonight and make five threes. They need Rapheal Davis' red-hot shooting to not be on 14:59 quite yet and they need A.J. Hammons to play like a pro.
Do you trust all this - or any combination thereof - to unfold?
Maybe I'm over-estimating Indiana - I probably am. They have not been great at times on the road, but they've had their moments.
I put so much stock in matchups. I don't like the matchups here. I think small trumps goliath ball more often than not when the right personnel is in place.
We'll see though.
If I am wrong, I invite you all to tell me how wrong I was on the boards later and scream it from the hilltops later if you so choose. We make picks and should be held accountable for them.
Hey, for a ton of other stuff about Purdue basketball and tonight's game, this.
We'll talk to you again after the game - which you can discuss in this thread or otherwise - with our game story, video, notebook, blog and Wrap Video.
Copyright, Boilers, Inc. 2015. All Rights Reserved. Reproducing or using editorial or graphical content, in whole or in part, without permission, is strictly prohibited. E-mail GoldandBlack.com/Boilers, Inc.
GoldandBlack.com Mobile for your Android
https://purdue.rivals.com/content.asp?SID=892&CID=818514
[/B]
(Feelings are on thing, picks are another.)
That reason: I just don't know if I trust Purdue to do what it has to do here. Even when it's been winning lately, it's been doing so despite flaws that could easily have proved fatal.
This a scary offensive matchup for Purdue, and the Boilermakers have been prone to shoddy ball-screen defense up top, of which they'll see a lot tonight, the central figure being the best it has seen so far in Yogi Ferrell, whose skill set is better for those types of situations that Demetrius Jackson and Melo Trimble, because he's so fast and such a dangerous pull-up shooter from three. You can't give him any space and Purdue has been given everyone too much space.
I don't know who's going to guard Troy Williams, maybe the key player in this whole game. Figuring 4 man Vince Edwards may have to guard IU "5" Collin Hartman to check him around the three-point line, that likely would leave Purdue's center, whoever it is, to guard the worst shooter on the floor for Indiana, Williams.
Remember how Terone Johnson chopped up opposing big men off the dribble in the same situations in 2012? Well, same deal, only Williams is better and way more athletic than Johnson was, is or ever will be.
I would trust small ball in a game like this over the opposite extreme considering Indiana's talent level in executing it. These guys are outstanding shooters and the matchups they can create tonight are daunting.
The flip side is that Purdue will create daunting matchups, too.
But to maximize their value, the Boilermakers have to do three things: 1) make outside jumpers, which Purdue is not doing right now except when they matter most 2) get their big men to make free throws, which has not been a strength and 3) don't turn the ball over, which has actually been a strength lately. A.J. Hammons has one turnover the past two games in big minutes. That's amazing considering his track record this season.
Indiana can not guard those guards with anything but a gaggle of players. Yes, a gaggle.
Indiana will zone Purdue into oblivion and if the Boilermakers can't make shots from the outside, it will work.
The reality is that when you play through the post, as opposed to playing for quick threes or up-tempo dribble penetration and when you play to maximize field goal attempts over maximizing possessions - and yes, they are different - so much more goes into it, there's so much more room for error, so many more opportunities for turnovers.
Purdue needs its most efficient game offensively, perhaps, to win tonight. Or it needs IU to run cold. Or it needs a Sterling Carter to come out of nowhere tonight and make five threes. They need Rapheal Davis' red-hot shooting to not be on 14:59 quite yet and they need A.J. Hammons to play like a pro.
Do you trust all this - or any combination thereof - to unfold?
Maybe I'm over-estimating Indiana - I probably am. They have not been great at times on the road, but they've had their moments.
I put so much stock in matchups. I don't like the matchups here. I think small trumps goliath ball more often than not when the right personnel is in place.
We'll see though.
If I am wrong, I invite you all to tell me how wrong I was on the boards later and scream it from the hilltops later if you so choose. We make picks and should be held accountable for them.
Hey, for a ton of other stuff about Purdue basketball and tonight's game, this.
We'll talk to you again after the game - which you can discuss in this thread or otherwise - with our game story, video, notebook, blog and Wrap Video.
Copyright, Boilers, Inc. 2015. All Rights Reserved. Reproducing or using editorial or graphical content, in whole or in part, without permission, is strictly prohibited. E-mail GoldandBlack.com/Boilers, Inc.
https://purdue.rivals.com/content.asp?SID=892&CID=818514
[/B]
