Seeing that I expect them to double down, I agree with JonnyDoe -we need to get an "early lead" & then shoot around 50% from 3 to win this one. (They will get a lot of points off of dribble penetration or turnovers.)
On defense, I would make Wagner hit 3s, before making an adjustment (he's NOT at home this time) - his shot didn't look very good today. I am more worried about Irvin and Walton Jr in this one. (Seniors who get on a roll are trouble) Oh !, maybe that means another good game for spike ![/QUOTE]
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I think I nailed it guys ! We simply give up too many easy points with our man D against driving teams. In this one, Michigan had 16 layups, 1 dunk (& a few missed) in addition to the 18 FT they got. That's 52 easy points, and according to my model, over 50 . . . and we lose.
The only way we can give up 35-45 of these pts and win is to shoot 50% from 3. That didn't happen either.
Next projection: If we play a good team which drives, I believe today was a glimpse of the future. If a tourney team gets 40-50 of these easy points, we will play well, stay close, but . . lose.
Hopefully we can get through the first game, but . . it depends on the match-up
As noted before numerous times . . Dribble penetration and our man D is our achillies heel. We can't stay with people driving and it opens us up to offensive rebounds by our opponents.
PS 52 was the 2nd highest total of the year. Only Nova had more on us (54) Last time I checked, there were abount 20-25 teams in the NCAA that could do the same to us, without an adjustment.
PSS I also said Carsen was going to be an impact player for us this year and someone we would definitely need to compete in the NCAA. If we do better that I just described, . . it will be because of that young man. HE NEEDS TO START AGAIN !
On defense, I would make Wagner hit 3s, before making an adjustment (he's NOT at home this time) - his shot didn't look very good today. I am more worried about Irvin and Walton Jr in this one. (Seniors who get on a roll are trouble) Oh !, maybe that means another good game for spike ![/QUOTE]
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I think I nailed it guys ! We simply give up too many easy points with our man D against driving teams. In this one, Michigan had 16 layups, 1 dunk (& a few missed) in addition to the 18 FT they got. That's 52 easy points, and according to my model, over 50 . . . and we lose.
The only way we can give up 35-45 of these pts and win is to shoot 50% from 3. That didn't happen either.
Next projection: If we play a good team which drives, I believe today was a glimpse of the future. If a tourney team gets 40-50 of these easy points, we will play well, stay close, but . . lose.
Hopefully we can get through the first game, but . . it depends on the match-up
As noted before numerous times . . Dribble penetration and our man D is our achillies heel. We can't stay with people driving and it opens us up to offensive rebounds by our opponents.
PS 52 was the 2nd highest total of the year. Only Nova had more on us (54) Last time I checked, there were abount 20-25 teams in the NCAA that could do the same to us, without an adjustment.
PSS I also said Carsen was going to be an impact player for us this year and someone we would definitely need to compete in the NCAA. If we do better that I just described, . . it will be because of that young man. HE NEEDS TO START AGAIN !
