Name the Coach Challenge: 1st 3 year P5 conf record by current BIG10 coach

[Boiler Addict]

I was interested in doing some additional investigation on coaching comparisons to Brohm. Since there are so many variables, I tried to mimic Brohm's tenure.

- 1st 3 seasons full time P5 coaching experience conference record
- overall strength of schedule (SOS) for those 3 years. I gathered the data from Sports Reference. - This does not factor in how good the team the coach inherited was.

I have listed the 14 current BIG10 coaches and their total first 3 years of P5 football records in order of winning percentage. With the following adjustments (due to <2 yrs P5 experience):

Ryan Day - replaced by Urban Meyer
Mel Tucker - replaced by Mark Dantonio
Greg Schiano - replaced by Nick Saban

It reads:
Coach # . 1st . 2nd . 3rd . Total . (SOS Avg)

Coach 01 5-3 , 7-1 , 5-3 = 17-7 ( 5.87 )
Coach 02 4-3-1 , 5-3 , 4-4 = 13-10-1 ( 6.16 )
Coach 03 3-5 , 6-2 , 4-4 = 13-11 ( 2.17 )
Coach 04 3-5 , 4-4 , 6-2 = 13-11 ( 1.95 )
Coach 05 3-6 , 4-5 , 6-3 = 13-14 ( 4.59 )
Coach 06 2-6 , 5-3 , 4-4 = 11-13 ( 2.71 )
Coach 07 4-5 , 5-4 , 3-6 = 12-15 ( 5.62 )
Coach 08 2-7 , 3-6 , 7-2 = 12-15 ( 3.65 )
Coach 09 2-6 , 3-5 , 5-3 = 10-14 ( -0.48 )
Coach 10 2-7 , 2-7 , 5-4 = 9-18 ( 4.00 )
Coach 11 3-6 , 3-6 , x-x = 6-12 ( 4.41 )
Coach 12 0-8 , 3-5 , 4-4 = 7-17 ( 5.77 )
Coach 13 1-5 , 1-5 , x-x = 2-10 ( 5.70 )
Coach 14 2-7 , 0-9 , 2-7 = 4-23 ( 3.31 )

I'll give you all some hints:
- the first two coaches have 9 national championships to their name
- the third coach is my other replacement.
- coaches 4-14 are active BIG10 coaches.

Anybody want to guess who's who? T. Allen, J. Brohm, P. Chryst, M. Dantonio, K. Ferentz, P. Fitzgerald, P. Fleck, J. Franklin, S. Frost, J. Harbaugh, M. Locksley, U. Meyer, N. Saban, L. Smith.

Observations:
1. Coach 4 is the only active BIG10 coach with the first 3 years coaching conference winning record (but weak SOS).
2. There are only 13 out of 40 winning records. Year 1 has 2, Year 2 has 5, Year 3 has 6.
3. SOS average between all coaches is ~3.96. The rankings follow the general SOS pattern with 5 outliers. Coach 1, 2, 7, 9 and 14.
4. 5 coaches have an SOS average of 5.50+. Two at the top, one in the middle and two at the bottom.
5. 5 coaches have improved the record every year.

 

[PurdueDave]

Thanks for pulling this together. I find it really interesting and am looking forward to the names (too lazy to figure them out on my own).

 

[FirstDownB]

Meyer 5-3 , 7-1 , 5-3 = 17-7 ( 5.87 )
Saban 4-3-1 , 5-3 , 4-4 = 13-10-1 ( 6.16 )
Dantonio 3-5 , 6-2 , 4-4 = 13-11 ( 2.17 )
Chryst 3-5 , 4-4 , 6-2 = 13-11 ( 1.95 )
Harbaugh 3-6 , 4-5 , 6-3 = 13-14 ( 4.59 )
Franklin 2-6 , 5-3 , 4-4 = 11-13 ( 2.71 )
Brohm 4-5 , 5-4 , 3-6 = 12-15 ( 5.62 )
Fleck 2-7 , 3-6 , 7-2 = 12-15 ( 3.65 )
Fitz 2-6 , 3-5 , 5-3 = 10-14 ( -0.48 )
Allen 2-7 , 2-7 , 5-4 = 9-18 ( 4.00 )
Frost 3-6 , 3-6 , x-x = 6-12 ( 4.41 )
Ferentz 0-8 , 3-5 , 4-4 = 7-17 ( 5.77 )
Locksley 1-5 , 1-8 , x-x = 2-13 ( 5.70 )
Lovie 2-7 , 0-9 , 2-7 = 4-23 ( 3.31 )

Good topic and thanks for bringing actual football discussion to the board!

 

[Boiler Addict]

Meyer 5-3 , 7-1 , 5-3 = 17-7 ( 5.87 )
Saban 4-3-1 , 5-3 , 4-4 = 13-10-1 ( 6.16 )
Dantonio 3-5 , 6-2 , 4-4 = 13-11 ( 2.17 )
Chryst 3-5 , 4-4 , 6-2 = 13-11 ( 1.95 )
Harbaugh 3-6 , 4-5 , 6-3 = 13-14 ( 4.59 )
Franklin 2-6 , 5-3 , 4-4 = 11-13 ( 2.71 )
Brohm 4-5 , 5-4 , 3-6 = 12-15 ( 5.62 )
Fleck 2-7 , 3-6 , 7-2 = 12-15 ( 3.65 )
Fitz 2-6 , 3-5 , 5-3 = 10-14 ( -0.48 )
Allen 2-7 , 2-7 , 5-4 = 9-18 ( 4.00 )
Frost 3-6 , 3-6 , x-x = 6-12 ( 4.41 )
Ferentz 0-8 , 3-5 , 4-4 = 7-17 ( 5.77 )
Locksley 1-5 , 1-8 , x-x = 2-13 ( 5.70 )
Lovie 2-7 , 0-9 , 2-7 = 4-23 ( 3.31 )

You nailed it. I don't know if you looked it up, but to re-emphasize the points I wanted to make with this exercise:

1) except Chryst and Ryan Day, all other current BIG10 coaches have losing records their first 3 years in Power 5 football.

2) Ultimately guys like #4 Chryst and Ryan Day inherited a different roster than #7 Brohm. I did a composite team talent average in a separate thread. Brohm did a lot with a little.

3) Brohm is squarely in the upper middle of the pack in the active BIG10 coaches list.

Brohm has some bad conference losses, 2017 Rutgers, 2018 Wisconsin (3 OT), 2018 Minnesota and 2019 Illinois, along with some ugly non-conference losses 2018 Eastern Michigan, 2018 Auburn, 2019 Nevada, 2019 TCU.

Regardless, Brohm's brought life, optimism and results to Purdue football to a level I haven't seen in at least a decade. There's lots of work still to do, improvements to be made, etc including getting an older experienced roster and winning games we should win, but I cannot wait until the 2021 (fall) season and beyond.

 

[FirstDownB]

You nailed it. I don't know if you looked it up, but to re-emphasize the points I wanted to make with this exercise:

1) except Chryst and Ryan Day, all other current BIG10 coaches have losing records their first 3 years in Power 5 football.

2) Ultimately guys like #4 Chryst and Ryan Day inherited a different roster than #7 Brohm. I did a composite team talent average in a separate thread. Brohm did a lot with a little.

3) Brohm is squarely in the upper middle of the pack in the active BIG10 coaches list.

Brohm has some bad conference losses, 2017 Rutgers, 2018 Wisconsin (3 OT), 2018 Minnesota and 2019 Illinois, along with some ugly non-conference losses 2018 Eastern Michigan, 2018 Auburn, 2019 Nevada, 2019 TCU.

Regardless, Brohm's brought life, optimism and results to Purdue football to a level I haven't seen in at least a decade. There's lots of work still to do, improvements to be made, etc including getting an older experienced roster and winning games we should win, but I cannot wait until the 2021 (fall) season and beyond.

Not getting to watch #4 play is by far the biggest loss of no football this season. But otherwise, there is a lot to look forward to in 2021 and beyond when the team will be deeper/older/more talented at nearly every other position.

 

[Boilerbub73]

You nailed it. I don't know if you looked it up, but to re-emphasize the points I wanted to make with this exercise:

1) except Chryst and Ryan Day, all other current BIG10 coaches have losing records their first 3 years in Power 5 football.

2) Ultimately guys like #4 Chryst and Ryan Day inherited a different roster than #7 Brohm. I did a composite team talent average in a separate thread. Brohm did a lot with a little.

3) Brohm is squarely in the upper middle of the pack in the active BIG10 coaches list.

Brohm has some bad conference losses, 2017 Rutgers, 2018 Wisconsin (3 OT), 2018 Minnesota and 2019 Illinois, along with some ugly non-conference losses 2018 Eastern Michigan, 2018 Auburn, 2019 Nevada, 2019 TCU.

Regardless, Brohm's brought life, optimism and results to Purdue football to a level I haven't seen in at least a decade. There's lots of work still to do, improvements to be made, etc including getting an older experienced roster and winning games we should win, but I cannot wait until the 2021 (fall) season and beyond.

Please explain to me how losing to Badgers is a badd conference loss

 

[nat100]

Please explain to me how losing to Badgers is a badd conference loss

We had that game won late

 

[Boiler Addict]

Please explain to me how losing to Badgers is a badd conference loss

We had that game won late

Exactly right. I actually outlined in the 4th post in a different thread on why it was a bad loss. A-E reasoning.

https://purdue.forums.rivals.com/threads/new-purdue-football-gifs.195028/

That 2018 Wisconsin game is such a brutal game to watch again. We should have won!

A) Zico fumbles at the ~7 yard line into the endzone for a touchback,
B) stall on two different possessions inside the 2 and settle for field goals, first time (1st and goal at 2) and second time (2nd and goal from 1)

C) give up an 80 yard Taylor run and various other little execution things,

D) still up 27-13 with less than 7 minutes to go (had a 96% win probability). We outplayed Wisconsin to that point. From then on, Wisconsin's line wore us down and we lose 47-44. Or to put it a different way, we gave up 5 touchdowns in 7 minutes of the 4th qtr and 3 OT's.

E) With less than 3 minutes left in regulation, the game tied, we even had a 1st down on Wisconsin's 40 yard line. Couldn't cash in.

Regardless, there's a couple plays worth showing.

Markell Jones touchdown run against Wisconsin 2018
https://media.giphy.com/media/SUiFjYEojEq3UQuEme/giphy.gif

Rondale Moore shaking the corner and spin move to beat safety for TD
https://media.giphy.com/media/iDVLm08FpxXjFapYmg/giphy.gif

Rondale Moore breaking 4 tackles and scoring TD in OT
https://media.giphy.com/media/jVGvApqSHPZM6nxV4d/giphy.gif

 

[jindy]

Exactly right. I actually outlined the game in the 4th post in a different thread on why it was a bad loss.

https://purdue.forums.rivals.com/threads/new-purdue-football-gifs.195028/

As much as any game in the Brohm era that showed in real time(or really painful time) the impact of the lack of quality depth over the course of the game. The lines(especially D-line) just flat wore down and without quality backups there was nothing left at the end, or in OT.