My B1G bracketology

[rgarlitz]

Here's how I see it going into the B1G tournament:

Purdue (26-5; NET: 5; SOS: 31; Q1: 9-4; Q1+Q2: 16-5): Lock. In the running for a #1 seed. Going to face a highly motivated team on Friday.

Maryland (20-11; NET: 26; SOS: 44; Q1: 3-9; Q1+Q2: 8-11): Lock. Struggled away from home. Not a lot of heft in the top 2 quadrants. Take your #7 seed and be happy.

Indiana (21-10; NET: 29; SOS: 14; Q1: 5-8; Q1+Q2: 11-10): Lock. Looking shaky for a top-4 seed. Two wins against Purdue help. Needs some wins in Chicago and a lot of Big XII, Big East, and SEC teams to lose early.

MSU (19-11; NET: 31; SOS: 6; Q1: 6-9; Q1+Q2: 12-10): Lock. Looking like an 8 seed. Not expecting a lot.

Illinois (20-11; NET: 33: SOS: 45: Q1: 2-10; Q1+Q2: 9-11): Lock. Looking like another 8 seed. This team has talent and a great win over UCLA. But, the 2-10 record against Q1 doesn't inspire confidence in a deep run.

Iowa (19-12; NET: 37; SOS: 25: Q1: 6-7; Q1+Q2: 13-9): Lock. Looks like textbook 9 seed. Has the offense to hang with #1 seeds in the R32. Of course, Iowa also lost to Nebraska twice.

Northwestern (21-10; NET: 38; SOS: 38; Q1: 7-5; @1+Q2: 11-10): Lock. A feel good story. 8 or 9 seed.

Rutgers (18-13; NET: 40; SOS: 55; Q1: 5-6; Q1+Q2: 9-10): Work left to do. Sliding down toward the First Four. Beating Michigan on Thursday would be a very good idea.

Michigan (17-14; NET: 54; SOS: 24; Q1: 3-11; Q1+Q2: 8-13): Work left to do. Blew a ton of chances in the regular season. Beat Rutgers on Thursday or start selling NIT tickets.

PSU (19-12; NET: 56; SOS: 36: Q1: 5-6; Q1+Q2: 9-11): Work left to do. Needs wins in Chicago and a whole bunch of middling teams to lose early.

Wisconsin (17-13; NET: 78; SOS: 11; Q1: 6-7; Q1+Q2: 11-12): Work left to do. Has a nice win over Marquette and a near-miss against Kansas. Personally, I'd put this team below Oklahoma State in the pecking order. Even Ohio State is 15 spots higher in the NET.

 

[Chi-Boiler]

Nice write-up. I like the middle of the road teams to be more like 6s or 7s than 8/9s. Especially Michigan State. Illinois too.

 

[Do Dah Day]

I'll play, with no explanations:
Purdue - 1
IU - 5 (could be a 4 but I refuse to post that BS!)
MSU - 7 (BS!)
MD - 7
Iowa - 7
NW - 8
Ill - 8
Rutg - 11
MI/PA St - out

 

[Chi-Boiler]

Here's what the Matrix has as last 4 in and first 5 out (the only 5 that have "votes"):

Utah State - 40 votes
Nevada - 56 votes
Mississippi St - 58 votes
Wisconsin (last in) - 35 votes - seems like they've been stuck there for 3 weeks.

2 teams from the Mountain West forces the committee's hands with the matchups some. Normally it would be Mississippi St vs Wisconsin in this example.

Last 5 out:
Penn State (first out) - 31 votes
Arizona State - 21
Oklahoma State - 16
Michigan - 2
North Carolina -1

 

[rgarlitz]

Nice write-up. I like the middle of the road teams to be more like 6s or 7s than 8/9s. Especially Michigan State. Illinois too.

You could be write. Bracket matrix is a little more bullish on the middling B1G teams than I am.

Edit: "right" You could be right.

 

[Do Dah Day]

Here's what the Matrix has as last 4 in and first 5 out (the only 5 that have "votes"):

Utah State - 40 votes
Nevada - 56 votes
Mississippi St - 58 votes
Wisconsin (last in) - 35 votes - seems like they've been stuck there for 3 weeks.

2 teams from the Mountain West forces the committee's hands with the matchups some. Normally it would be Mississippi St vs Wisconsin in this example.

Last 5 out:
Penn State (first out) - 31 votes
Arizona State - 21
Oklahoma State - 16
Michigan - 2
North Carolina -1

Wisky in??? HUMPH

 

[Do Dah Day]

Here's what the Matrix has as last 4 in and first 5 out (the only 5 that have "votes"):

Utah State - 40 votes
Nevada - 56 votes
Mississippi St - 58 votes
Wisconsin (last in) - 35 votes - seems like they've been stuck there for 3 weeks.

2 teams from the Mountain West forces the committee's hands with the matchups some. Normally it would be Mississippi St vs Wisconsin in this example.

Last 5 out:
Penn State (first out) - 31 votes
Arizona State - 21
Oklahoma State - 16
Michigan - 2
North Carolina -1

I will put some money on Utah State being the sleeper this year

 

[TX4GB]

Wisky in??? HUMPH

That early Marquette win really carried them.

 

[rgarlitz]

That early Marquette win really carried them.

It's helping us a lot, too. For as bad as Purdue's non-conference SOS turned out to be this year (Pomeroy #145)-- the quartet of wins over Gonzaga (NET #9), Marquette (NET #13), West Virginia (NET #24), and Duke (NET #25) all held up.