Minutes per game

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There has been a lot of discussions about who might step up next year and how "deep" we are. I think a discussion of how many minutes there are to be had in a game and to whom they might go to is warranted. I am going to make some assumptions right from the beginning.

Woltman starts at center and plays 20-30 minutes a night. The more the better IMO simply for defense and rebounding purposes.

Terry, Ellis, and Layden all start and average around 30 minutes a night. That is about what Ellis and Terry averaged last year and a reduction of five minutes a night for Layden, which I think would be good for her overall game and keep her fresher for the end of the season.

That is 110-120 minutes of the possible 200 a game without addressing the 4 spot. Everything after this is guesswork and supposition mostly with how I think the team would play the best.

I would like to see Harper start at the PF spot and get 20-25 minutes a night backed up by Learn getting 15-20. Learn got 12 a night in BT play and led the team in shooting percentage and second in points per minute played.

That puts us up to 150-160 minutes a night spoken for.

I am hopeful Stoddard can play the backup center role for 10-20 minutes a night. That frees up Learn and Harper to only play PF which I think will help Learn's development and keep Harper where she can do the most good.

That takes us to 170 minutes a game taken.

That leaves 30 minutes a game for Smith (14 mpg last season), Potts, Williams, Hardin, and Petree to split. Any more they get comes from Ellis, Terry, and Layden. Terry led us in rebounding, assists, and steals. limiting her minutes seems counter productive unless someone else can replace those stats. Scoring is not Terry's strong point obviously, but she hit 2 of 3 last second game winners she attempted. Ellis and Layden were virtually tied for leading scorer, 11.5 and 11.6 points per game played. Any minutes from them needs to be someone putting up points at a good clip. That could definitely be Petree or Potts, but I just don't see enough minutes for everyone to contribute as much as some fans would like for some of the new players.

I am not going to speculate on those last 30 minutes because we have yet to see 3 of those 5 players play. I could see them going to one player, three players, or maybe all five, but I think if you play all five, you won't get any consistency and team cohesion will suffer. I believe playing more than 10 players double digit minutes makes a team that struggles to be consistent from night to night.

I would like to hear what others think on this, please keep it civil.
 

illiniboiler

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Good input and analysis I think. We'll just have to see how those players produce, injuries, etc. But, like Painter, some games may mean more minutes for one player, another more for another. The best mixing and matching is the best coaching and MP is a genius at it. KG seemed to have some ability and her use of Learn was great even though forced into it. But given the returning experience it is a conumdrum about the others minutes. Might there be a redshirt? TBD
 
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Mediocre to good coaches adjust and juggle their lineup to try and match the other teams strengths. Great coaches make the other team adjust to what their team does best. JMO

I always hated how Versyp would do that, it always felt like it undermined our own teams confidence and cohesion. We ended up with odd combinations on the floor that left us without scoring options.
 

DocRon

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There has been a lot of discussions about who might step up next year and how "deep" we are. I think a discussion of how many minutes there are to be had in a game and to whom they might go to is warranted. I am going to make some assumptions right from the beginning.

Woltman starts at center and plays 20-30 minutes a night. The more the better IMO simply for defense and rebounding purposes.

Terry, Ellis, and Layden all start and average around 30 minutes a night. That is about what Ellis and Terry averaged last year and a reduction of five minutes a night for Layden, which I think would be good for her overall game and keep her fresher for the end of the season.

That is 110-120 minutes of the possible 200 a game without addressing the 4 spot. Everything after this is guesswork and supposition mostly with how I think the team would play the best.

I would like to see Harper start at the PF spot and get 20-25 minutes a night backed up by Learn getting 15-20. Learn got 12 a night in BT play and led the team in shooting percentage and second in points per minute played.

That puts us up to 150-160 minutes a night spoken for.

I am hopeful Stoddard can play the backup center role for 10-20 minutes a night. That frees up Learn and Harper to only play PF which I think will help Learn's development and keep Harper where she can do the most good.

That takes us to 170 minutes a game taken.

That leaves 30 minutes a game for Smith (14 mpg last season), Potts, Williams, Hardin, and Petree to split. Any more they get comes from Ellis, Terry, and Layden. Terry led us in rebounding, assists, and steals. limiting her minutes seems counter productive unless someone else can replace those stats. Scoring is not Terry's strong point obviously, but she hit 2 of 3 last second game winners she attempted. Ellis and Layden were virtually tied for leading scorer, 11.5 and 11.6 points per game played. Any minutes from them needs to be someone putting up points at a good clip. That could definitely be Petree or Potts, but I just don't see enough minutes for everyone to contribute as much as some fans would like for some of the new players.

I am not going to speculate on those last 30 minutes because we have yet to see 3 of those 5 players play. I could see them going to one player, three players, or maybe all five, but I think if you play all five, you won't get any consistency and team cohesion will suffer. I believe playing more than 10 players double digit minutes makes a team that struggles to be consistent from night to night.

I would like to hear what others think on this, please keep it civil.
Good and thought provoking post. (You even put in some paragraphs - grin) My thoughts were that it will be interesting to see how Williams does because she had all of last year to get used to KG’s system. I have no idea at what level she can perform.

And I suspect Hardin will get more mins than those you seem to be predicting. CKG clearly loves her as a shooter. (Remember last year she said her only bad shots are the ones she does not take. Maybe Hardin reminds her of her own career here.) And she thinks that she played better D last year than most of us posters - she said so several times. Hardin was frustrating to me because of her lack of speed and her streakiness but I am not the coach, nor do I know anywhere near as much as coach does.

But thanks for the post. IMHO it was well written.
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IF and how much Hardin plays will tell me A LOT about CKG's ability as a coach. Quite frankly she is too short to be as slow as she is, her defense is poor, she adds no rebounding to speak of, and in BT play she shot under 30% from the 3 pt range and averaged under 6 points a game while leading the team in minutes played. I suspect you are correct about why KG plays her, but that is an indictment of KG's ability to be detached and coach for the good of the team instead of playing her favorites. CKG has several options that are seemingly superior to Hardin and if she plays her 30 minutes a night plus again this year, we have Versyp all over again and the way SV allowed certain guards to run amuck but yanked the rest of the team around. I'm looking at you K K Houser.
 

illiniboiler

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Yes Hardin minutes will be telling. Like Painter there is a loyalty issue here, but Painter has proved to be right most of the time (Eifert etc. I would think Hardin would be beaten out some by the others. Worst case is that KG plays her a lot no matter want. Best case is she starts her early on and let's her play her way in or out of minutes. That's what I think will happen. One thing about Hardin--she is true black and gold. If her minutes reduce she will be a team player and spirit leader as we saw when her minutes were reduced some last year. That kind of player and be real glue she knows the system probably better than anyone. TBD
 

DavidBoiler

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Good and thought provoking post. (You even put in some paragraphs - grin) My thoughts were that it will be interesting to see how Williams does because she had all of last year to get used to KG’s system. I have no idea at what level she can perform.

And I suspect Hardin will get more mins than those you seem to be predicting. CKG clearly loves her as a shooter. (Remember last year she said her only bad shots are the ones she does not take. Maybe Hardin reminds her of her own career here.) And she thinks that she played better D last year than most of us posters - she said so several times. Hardin was frustrating to me because of her lack of speed and her streakiness but I am not the coach, nor do I know anywhere near as much as coach does.

But thanks for the post. IMHO it was well written.
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I agree it's well written, my only addition to it would be that I think Jayla Smith plays major minutes as well.. 20+ minutes a game, and I also don't think with the addition of more post options for Katie that Woltman plays 30 minutes a game. I could be wrong, but she doesn't do enough offensively imho, we'll see how this whole thing plays out and the lineups that Katie decides to go with..She definitely has more options than she did last season.
 
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I agree it's well written, my only addition to it would be that I think Jayla Smith plays major minutes as well.. 20+ minutes a game, and I also don't think with the addition of more post options for Katie that Woltman plays 30 minutes a game. I could be wrong, but she doesn't do enough offensively imho, we'll see how this whole thing plays out and the lineups that Katie decides to go with..She definitely has more options than she did last season.
Woltman and Stoddard are the only centers on the roster. Playing 4 guards works in the MEAC and NAIA, but in the BT it is a recipe for a bottom half finish in the conference. That is why I dislike the idea of playing small against weak teams, it doesn't prepare the team for playing with the same players they will in the tougher games. Woltman may not be an offensive juggernaut, she is a key to a quality defense and helps with rebounding, two things that Smith is no help with at all judging from her last season. Smith also shoots poorly from 3 pt range, the only one of the 5 returning perimeter players shooting worse than Hardin (except Terry). Smith may earn significant minutes, she may end up out of the rotation entirely beat out by Petree, Potts ( who I think will be great), Williams (who was rated as a better recruit), and/or Hardin because she has the coaches backing despite her play. Then again, Smith might surprise most of us and beat out Ellis for the starting 2G spot. Its possible.
 
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purduedavie

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I agree it's well written, my only addition to it would be that I think Jayla Smith plays major minutes as well.. 20+ minutes a game, and I also don't think with the addition of more post options for Katie that Woltman plays 30 minutes a game. I could be wrong, but she doesn't do enough offensively imho, we'll see how this whole thing plays out and the lineups that Katie decides to go with..She definitely has more options than she did last season.
Agree on both points, Woltman more 20 minutes or so, Smith 18-20 minutes a night. I think Learn will play some at the 5 along with Stoddard.
 

DavidBoiler

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Woltman and Stoddard are the only centers on the roster. Playing 4 guards works in the MEAC and NAIA, but in the BT it is a recipe for a bottom half finish in the conference. That is why I dislike the idea of playing small against weak teams, it doesn't prepare the team for playing with the same players they will in the tougher games. Woltman may not be an offensive juggernaut, she is a key to a quality defense and helps with rebounding, two things that Smith is no help with at all judging from her last season. Smith also shoots poorly from 3 pt range, the only one of the 5 returning perimeter players shooting worse than Hardin. Smith may earn significant minutes, she may end up out of the rotation entirely beat out by Petree, Potts ( who I think will be great), Williams (who was rated as a better recruit), and/or Hardin because she has the coaches backing despite her play. Then again, Smith might surprise most of us and beat out Ellis for the starting 2G spot. Its possibl
Woltman and Stoddard are the only centers on the roster. Playing 4 guards works in the MEAC and NAIA, but in the BT it is a recipe for a bottom half finish in the conference. That is why I dislike the idea of playing small against weak teams, it doesn't prepare the team for playing with the same players they will in the tougher games. Woltman may not be an offensive juggernaut, she is a key to a quality defense and helps with rebounding, two things that Smith is no help with at all judging from her last season. Smith also shoots poorly from 3 pt range, the only one of the 5 returning perimeter players shooting worse than Hardin. Smith may earn significant minutes, she may end up out of the rotation entirely beat out by Petree, Potts ( who I think will be great), Williams (who was rated as a better recruit), and/or Hardin because she has the coaches backing despite her play. Then again, Smith might surprise most of us and beat out Ellis for the starting 2G spot. Its possible.
Who are the 4 guards? If Madison is considered a guard and Terry is considered a guard, I consider them wings more than anything, Katie played 4 guards plus Woltman most of last season. Hardin was on the floor with Madison, Ellis, Terry and Woltman. I think Smith starts as does Ellis, Terry, Madison and Woltman. I could always be wrong but my guess is we will see that combination on the floor a lot.
 

illiniboiler

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If Smith beats out Ellis, we will be quite good. I think there is no chance of that. Ellis is a key, key player as is Layden and as Woltman has to be. All the rest will fight it out.
I agree Woltman and Stoddard need some serious help up front.
 
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Yes, we played a 4 guard lineup last year, and we finished below .500 in the BT with our only win against a program that had a winning BT record in Big Ten play coming against MSU when they had a couple of players out for injury or illness. We got swept by UWisc who REALLY upgraded the talent on their team and could make a big move either this year or next year up the standings. I also expect Rutgers to be a lot better having a HC on the bench. Hardin played PF last year on defense because Layden is a bit soft and rather weak to be down on the blocks, it would greatly diminish her overall game to play her in the post on defense, and she has no low post moves offensively. Your lineup is good for 8-10th in the conference and close to a .500 record, and I think utilizing Harper and Learn at PF we can be better than that. And Terry is definitely the PG, no matter how much you want to call her a wing or forward....... there is not one piece of rational evidence that she is anything but the teams starting PG.
 

illiniboiler

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Didn't give a lineup, only listed 3 players that have to play a lot. fine with Terry at pg and Ellis at SG,
Yes, Learn and Harper need to help up front. If Layden does not have to be relied on so much she may be good and more consistent. Lots of unknowns for sure, but I don' t think, except for key injuries, this team will be 8-10. I see us more like 5-7. I guess we'll see.
 
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Didn't give a lineup, only listed 3 players that have to play a lot. fine with Terry at pg and Ellis at SG,
Yes, Learn and Harper need to help up front. If Layden does not have to be relied on so much she may be good and more consistent. Lots of unknowns for sure, but I don' t think, except for key injuries, this team will be 8-10. I see us more like 5-7. I guess we'll see.
Sorry, I was replying to DavidBoiler and being too lazy to quote him about the 4 guard lineup.

I agree with you that Layden, Terry (my words not yours), and Woltman are bullet proof and Ellis is very nearly bullet proof as far as starting this next year.

I can see anywhere from 6-10 depending on how CKG plays the roster she has. If she starts Hardin again and goes 4g in the BT, I do not see us improving any at all from last year. If we start Harper and play a bigger lineup, I could see 6th, not sure about 5th yet.
 
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Woltman and Stoddard are the only centers on the roster. Playing 4 guards works in the MEAC and NAIA, but in the BT it is a recipe for a bottom half finish in the conference. That is why I dislike the idea of playing small against weak teams, it doesn't prepare the team for playing with the same players they will in the tougher games. Woltman may not be an offensive juggernaut, she is a key to a quality defense and helps with rebounding, two things that Smith is no help with at all judging from her last season. Smith also shoots poorly from 3 pt range, the only one of the 5 returning perimeter players shooting worse than Hardin. Smith may earn significant minutes, she may end up out of the rotation entirely beat out by Petree, Potts ( who I think will be great), Williams (who was rated as a better recruit), and/or Hardin because she has the coaches backing despite her play. Then again, Smith might surprise most of us and beat out Ellis for the starting 2G spot. Its possible.
Jayla Smith for whatever reason didn't show last season what kind of player she really is. I'm not sure if it was her confidence, something physical or another reason.

I would actually rate her as an excellent shooter and an above average finisher at the rim. I know....I know, she sure didn't show it last year. Anyone who wants to see the real Jayla Smith should find a tape of the 2020 Class 4A State Championship Game between her Lawrence North team and Madison Layden's Northwestern team. I promise you will be impressed and she was only a Junior in that game.

After watching that game in person. I followed her Senior season very closely and was thrilled when she decided to join Madison at Purdue.

I'm going on record right now and predicting that she has a breakout season this year.
 
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DavidBoiler

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Jayla Smith for whatever reason didn't show last season what kind of player she really is. I'm not sure if it was her confidence, something physical or another reason.

I would actually rate her as an excellent shooter and an above average finisher at the rim. I know....I know, she sure didn't show it last year. Anyone who wants to see the real Jayla Smith should find a tape of the 2020 Class 4A State Championship Game between her Lawrence North team and Madison Layden's Northwestern team. I promise you will be impressed and she was only a Junior in that game.

After watching that game in person. I followed her Senior season very closely and was thrilled when she decided to join Madison at Purdue.

I'm going on record right now and predicting that she has a breakout season this year.
She was a freshman.... were there any freshmen players besides Learn that played significant minutes? Katie didn't take over the team till September, so she wasn't fully in charge of the team back in June of last year. Let's see what growth and development for her we see this summer. The summer is where a lot of the development seemingly happens for young players like her. I think she'll have a breakout season, but it all starts this summer.
 

DocRon

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She was a freshman.... were there any freshmen players besides Learn that played significant minutes? Katie didn't take over the team till September, so she wasn't fully in charge of the team back in June of last year. Let's see what growth and development for her we see this summer. The summer is where a lot of the development seemingly happens for young players like her. I think she'll have a breakout season, but it all starts this summer.
Agree.. Coach repeatedly said about her that she was dealing with the transition into college and implied that it was a lot for her.

And… she has to do better with her TO’s.
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In defense of Woltman playing as much as she can without foul trouble. Among the 7 returning players she is:

3rd in points per minute played (.34), behind Ellis (.4) and Learn (.39)
1st in Rebounds per minute (.25). Terry (.24) and Learn (.22) for comparisons
1st in blocks in Big Ten play with 20. Learn (13) and Layden (10) for comparisons

The more minutes Woltman and Learn get, the better we will be IMO, and playing them side by side with Layden on the floor as well could create some real headaches for most of our opponents.

For DavidBoiler:
Smith .30 ppm, .11 rpm. .04 assists per minute which only is better than Woltman and Learn of the starters and compares to Terry at (.19).
Smith may blossom this year, or go into the sophomore slump. She could replace Ellis as starter, or be relegated to garbage minutes by the emergence of Williams, Potts, and/or Petree. Or suffer from Hardin getting 30 minutes a night or more again. Playing time unfortunately IS a zero sum game, and if one player gets more minutes, there are less for others. I cannot see any rational starting lineup that doesn't include Layden, Woltman and Terry and to replace Ellis, someone is going to have to be VERY improved or VERY good right from the start IMO.

I am excited to see Harper and Potts play, and if they are as good as I think they can be, some returning players are going to lose minutes from last year, not gain.
 
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purduedavie

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Yes, middle of the pack at best with another NIT bid I think. If they exceed that it will be great but a surprise.
I’ll say 4-5 with a 9-10 seed in the Big Dance, maybe a last 4 playin game involved. Deeper team that is more experienced, think that leads to a few more wins that get the team a bid, that would be a nice step up.
 
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I’ll say 4-5 with a 9-10 seed in the Big Dance, maybe a last 4 playin game involved. Deeper team that is more experienced, think that leads to a few more wins that get the team a bid, that would be a nice step up.
If we finish 4 or 5 in the Big Ten the worst we will be seeded is 7th or so in the NCAA. The top five returning teams in conference are all still going to be pretty good with only UMary and UMich looking any weaker than last year.
 
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Hopeful to get a top half B10 finish and not have to sweat it out on the selection day. One thing I feel like I have heard CKG say is that this was the only WNIT she wants to play in. Don't know if that's just talk or means we would pass on a bid like NU and MSU this year.
 
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purduedavie

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If we finish 4 or 5 in the Big Ten the worst we will be seeded is 7th or so in the NCAA. The top five returning teams in conference are all still going to be pretty good with only UMary and UMich looking any weaker than last year.
5-6 is probably what I should have put, my bad!
 
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DavidBoiler

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Yes, but as I posted in another thread, her assist/TO ratio is by far the worst of any returning guard.
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she was a freshman....again let's see how a full summer of workouts with Katie now fully in charge of the team for the the whole summer, giving Smith more minutes with the starting core, a whole summer of tons of drills and scrimmages, lets let that play out and then lets evaluate the one player on this team who has the most athleticism and has the over all highest ceiling to be an all-big ten performer.
 
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She was a freshman.... were there any freshmen players besides Learn that played significant minutes? Katie didn't take over the team till September, so she wasn't fully in charge of the team back in June of last year. Let's see what growth and development for her we see this summer. The summer is where a lot of the development seemingly happens for young players like her. I think she'll have a breakout season, but it all starts this summer.
Williams did not play because of a carryover injury from high school, so Learn and Smith were the only two freshmen on the team last year. With Holzman already out for injury, we again only have two true freshmen and one redshirt freshman vying for playing time, plus two 5th year transfers.