I think this is a winnable game against a top ten team. Let's talk PU vs MSU.
A few things about MSU (in no particularly order)...
1. Rebounding, rebounding, rebounding. Maryland did a decent job against Purdue on the boards. Michigan State and Purdue are the best teams statistically rebounding. Purdue has to really assert itself on the boards.
2. 3 point defense. Michigan State is a big three point shooting team - Purdue's been rather hit and miss on perimeter defense. The good news it that MSU doesn't have big guys that are gonna be shooting 3s. Their top 2 scorers (Valentine and Forbes) shoot 44% and 50% from 3.
4. AJ. Last time we played Michigan State, Costello basically schooled AJ. Costello is the opposite of an AJ personality wise - very outgoing, wears his heart on his sleeve, emotional, etc. It's fine that AJ is not that because how you play on the court is what matters - but AJ's gotta win this battle down low between MSU bigs. Hopefully he has a bad taste in his mouth about this game last year.
5. Turnovers. This plays into the rebounding. MSU is last in the Big Ten at turnover margin. Much like Purdue, this is the only stat that MSU is really below average at in the Big Ten. Knock on wood, Purdue's been doing better with turnovers here and there (still not as consistent as I'd like). But this is a game if Purdue can win the turnover margin and the rebounding margin, they should put themselves in a good spot.
Purdue/MSU games are rarely basketball masterpieces. They are usually a dog fight and hard nosed battles - and not in a pretty way. This is not a game to be soft and the home court will only mean so much (MSU dismantled Michigan yesterday on the road).
Purdue played a hard game yesterday, I'm sure they were worn out and there's a quick turn around to Tuesday. It's going to be a tough one.