Looking Ahead: Purdue vs. Boston College

[JohnnyDoeBoiler]

Key Players:
Purdue:
David Blough: 50/81 70.4% 694 yards 3TD 1INT 152.2 rtg
Rondale Moore: 4 rush 128 yards 1 TD 25 rec 262 yards 2TD (22.4 KO ret avr)
Jared Sparks: 13 rec 138 yards
Brycen Hopkins: 9 rec 175 yards 1TD
DJ Knox: 35 att 252 yards 2TD
Cornell Jones: 22 tkl 7.5 TFL 2.5 sacks
Markus Bailey: 19 tkl 2.5 TFL 2.5 sacks
Derrick Barnes: 25 tkl 1 TFL 1 sack

Boston College:
QB Anthony Brown: 33/48 68.8% 626 yards 9TD 0INT
RB AJ Dillon: 59 att 432 yards 4TD
WR/QB Jeff Smith: 8 att 97 yards 9 rec 184 yards 2 TD
WR Kobay White: 5 rec 147 yards 3TD
LB Connor Strachan: 25 tkl 1.5 TFL 1 sack
DB Hamp Cheevers: 10 tkl 2INT 1TD 3PD
DB Taj-Amir Torres: 14 tkl 5PD

ESPN's FPI Predictor: 71.7% Boston College
Boston College is a 6.5 point favorite

Team Stats Rankings:
Purdue:
Passing YPG: 325.7 ypg (17th)
Rushing YPG: 195.0 ypg (56th)
Defensive Passing YPG: 319.0 ypg (120th)
Defensive Rushing YPG: 156.0 ypg (71st)
Red Zone Offense: .857 (70th)
Red Zone Defense: .867 scoring % (74th)
Team Sacks: 7 sacks (45th)
Sacks Allowed: 4 (38th)
Scoring Offense: 27.7 (85th)
Scoring Defense: 30.3 (93rd)
TO Margin: -4 (119th)
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 2.11 (68th)
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 2.40 (90th)

Boston College:
Passing YPG: 291.7 ypg (34th)
Rushing YPG: 285.7 ypg (8th)
Defensive Passing YPG: 176.7 ypg (36th)
Defensive Rushing YPG: 187.0 ypg (94th)
Red Zone Offense: 1.000 (1st)
Red Zone Defense: .667 scoring % (21st)
Team Sacks: 11 (8th)
Sacks Allowed: 2 sacks (13th)
Scoring Offense: 52.7 (6th)
Scoring Defense: 23.0 (58th)
TO Margin:+5 (9th)
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 2.30 (47th)
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 1.82 (27th)

Haven't had a chance to watch BC yet this season but if last year was any indication, they'll look to establish the running game, especially between the tackles, which will setup the screen and play action passing game. They feature two very good WR's that have totaled 5 touchdowns between both of them. Looking at these and a few other advanced metrics, I believe Purdue stays close most of the game but can't quite pull out another close game at home. This is the struggle of a young team trying to figure out how to win close games which means the difference between playing in a bowl game and sitting at home this season.

Purdue 27
Boston College 34

 

[FirstDownB]

I think this game may come down to our CB play on their receivers. I just watched the BC/Wake game and their QB Brown is not afraid to throw downfield into coverage. He's not supremely accurate, but their receivers are good at adjusting to the ball in the air. Our corners need to do a much better job in these situations at either locating the ball or playing the man. These should be high leverage plays for the defense.. two out of three possible outcomes are advantage defense. We cannot allow their play-action shots to be highly effective on top of their running game.

Dillon is a beast good and they are going to get theirs on the ground. He's going to extend drives by converting in short yardage (what's new) and break a couple big ones. But we absolutely need to prevent the big plays from their passing game. Force their QB to fit the ball into tight windows, even with our $&^% pass rush, and we can hold them to field goals. 30 points wins the game, and I think our offense is clicking well enough to pull that off.