Key Players:
Purdue:
QB David Blough: 256/390 65.6% 3211 yds 22TD 7INT 77.4 rat (3rd B1G-23 NCAA)
RB DJ Knox: 140 att 826 yds 5.9 avr 8 TD 26 rec 186 yds 1 TD
WR Rondale Moore: 91 rec 1023 yds 11.2 avr 10 TD 15 att 190 yds 12.7 avr (1894 total yards-3rd)
WR Isaac Zico: 38 rec 648 yds 17.1 avr 5TD
TE Brycen Hopkins: 30 rec 551 yds 18.4 avr 2TD
LB Markus Bailey: 97 tkl 7 tfl 5.5 sk 1INT 1TD
LB Cornel Jones: 61 tkl 11.5 tkl 3.5 sk
LB Derrick Barnes: 74 tkl 5.0 tfl 3.0 sk
DT Lorenzo Neal: 30 tkl 3.0 tfl 1.0 sk
S Navon Mosely: 79 tkl 1.0 tfl 1.0 sk
Key Injuries:
S Jacob Thieneman: OUT
OL Grant Hermanns: OUT
QB Elijah Sindelar: OUT
RB Richie Worship: OUT
Indiana:
QB Peyton Ramsey: 259/396 65.4% 18TD 12INT 76.9 rat (4th B1G-24th NCAA)
RB Stevie Scott: 208 att 1033 yds 5.0 avr 9TD 15 rec 80 yds 1TD
WR Donovan Hale: 32 rec 427 yds 13.3 avr 6TD
WR Nick Westbrook: 34 rec 465 yds 13.7 avr 3TD
WR Luke Timian: 41 rec 385 yds 9.4 avr 0TD
S Jonathan Crawford: 61 tkl 3.0 tfl 1.0 sk 1INT
LB Dameon Willis Jr: 57 tkl 3.5 tfl 1.5 sk
DB Marcelino Ball: 56 tkl 6.5 tfl 2.5 sk 1INT
DB Bryant Fitzgerald: 29 tkl 2.0 tfl 3INT
DL Allen Stallings: 22 tkl 6.0 tfl 2.0 sk
Key Injuries:
QB Michael Penix Jr: OUT
WR David Felton: OUT
TE TJ Ivy: OUT
RB Cole Gest: OUT
WR Miles Marshall: OUT
WR Jacolby Hewitt: OUT
WR Whop Philyor: OUT
OL Mackenzie Nworah: OUT
LB Raekwon Jones: Probable
LB Caleb Jones: First Half Suspension (Targeting)
Team Stats:
Purdue:
Rushing Offense: 142.2
Passing Offense: 318.5
Total Offense: 460.7
Rushing Defense: 166.6
Passing Defense: 270.7
Total Defense: 437.4
Turnover Margin: -3
Offensive S&P+: 36.0 (17th)
Defensive S&P+: 29.6 (74th)
Special Teams S&P+: -.1 (70th)
Overall S&P+: 6.3 (42nd) [last week: 40th)
Points / Game: 32.3
Points Allowed / Game: 27.8
Indiana:
Rushing Offense: 158.7
Passing Offense: 249.9
Total Offense: 408.6
Rushing Defense: 188.0
Passing Defense: 234.3
Total Defense: 422.3
Turnover Margin: +5
Offensive S&P+: 27.9 (81st)
Defensive S&P+: 29.7 (75th)
Special Teams S&P+: .8 (42nd)
Overall S&P+: -1.1 (80th) [last week: 80th)
Points / Game: 26.9
Points Allowed / Game: 30.1
Other Odds & Ends:
ESPN's FPI: Purdue 63.2%
Spread: -4 Purdue
Over/Under: 65.5
Keys to the Game:
1: More Moore...please: Rondale is only 106 total yards away from 2000 total yards for the season from scrimmage. His 91 receptions place him tied for 3rd in a single season (1st: Chris Daniels 121 2nd Rodney Carter 98) and 1,023 yards place him 11th in a single season (10th: Brian Alford 1,057 1st: 1,307 yards). Moore will likely have ample opportunities to be used in the both the passing and the running game as Brohm will look to use all available options to return the Boilers to a bowl game in his second season. If Moore can get in the range of 250 all purpose yards, he could break Dorien Bryant's single season yardage record of 2,121 yards from 2007.
2: Who Carries The Load?: Last season, Brohm used Markell Jones exclusively to punish the poor Hoosier defense for 31 carries and 217 yards. It was vintage Boilermaker football that had many reliving memories of Mike Astott, Leroy Keyes, and Otis Armstrong running wild against the Hoosiers to win the Old Oaken Bucket. It would go a very long way for the deep passing attack that Purdue has relied heavily upon this year if they can establish the run. With the exception of the first two games where Purdue rushed for 202 and 341 yards respectively, Purdue has not had more than 88 yards rushing in losses to Missouri, MSU, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. In fact, Purdue has averaged only 67 yards rushing in the last four losses. In their 5 victories so far this season, Purdue has averaged 150 yards rushing and that includes only 76 yards against Boston College. If Purdue wants to win the Bucket, they will likely need to reach 150 yards on the ground, which would be the most since their 161 against Ohio State.
3. Let's Get Physical, Physical: You likely sang some Olivia Newton John in your head but this is a huge key for Purdue's defense after being utterly out played and flat out embarrassed over the last two weeks. Purdue has surrendered an average of 325 yards rushing over the previous two weeks. That simply can't happen against a very capable running game from Indiana and likely All Freshman Team and potential Freshman AA Stevie Scott. Outside of Rondale Moore, Scott has been the breakout freshman of the year rushing for over 1,000 yards. In Purdue's victories this season, they have given just 121.4 rushing yards per game and that includes the 259 Nebraska racked up against them. Take that game out and Purdue gives up just 87 yards per game on the ground in victories. Indiana averages 158.7 yards per game but Scott has been able to get over 100 yards rushing the last four consecutive games. Controlling Scott means making Peyton Ramsey more one dimensional which bodes well for Purdue.
Prediction:
Purdue should win this game. Purdue has more talent at the skill positions, has a more talented QB, and has the better LB's. Both defensive lines aren't great at getting to the QB BUT Indiana has a penchant for getting key turnovers in situations that have kept them in some ball games they shouldn't have been in. If Indiana can be +2 in the TO margin along with establishing Scott for more than 150 yards rushing, Indiana will win this game. That being said, I think Purdue slips by for the second year in a row to win the Old Oaken Bucket and get bowl eligible.
Purdue: 41
Indiana: 36
Purdue:
QB David Blough: 256/390 65.6% 3211 yds 22TD 7INT 77.4 rat (3rd B1G-23 NCAA)
RB DJ Knox: 140 att 826 yds 5.9 avr 8 TD 26 rec 186 yds 1 TD
WR Rondale Moore: 91 rec 1023 yds 11.2 avr 10 TD 15 att 190 yds 12.7 avr (1894 total yards-3rd)
WR Isaac Zico: 38 rec 648 yds 17.1 avr 5TD
TE Brycen Hopkins: 30 rec 551 yds 18.4 avr 2TD
LB Markus Bailey: 97 tkl 7 tfl 5.5 sk 1INT 1TD
LB Cornel Jones: 61 tkl 11.5 tkl 3.5 sk
LB Derrick Barnes: 74 tkl 5.0 tfl 3.0 sk
DT Lorenzo Neal: 30 tkl 3.0 tfl 1.0 sk
S Navon Mosely: 79 tkl 1.0 tfl 1.0 sk
Key Injuries:
S Jacob Thieneman: OUT
OL Grant Hermanns: OUT
QB Elijah Sindelar: OUT
RB Richie Worship: OUT
Indiana:
QB Peyton Ramsey: 259/396 65.4% 18TD 12INT 76.9 rat (4th B1G-24th NCAA)
RB Stevie Scott: 208 att 1033 yds 5.0 avr 9TD 15 rec 80 yds 1TD
WR Donovan Hale: 32 rec 427 yds 13.3 avr 6TD
WR Nick Westbrook: 34 rec 465 yds 13.7 avr 3TD
WR Luke Timian: 41 rec 385 yds 9.4 avr 0TD
S Jonathan Crawford: 61 tkl 3.0 tfl 1.0 sk 1INT
LB Dameon Willis Jr: 57 tkl 3.5 tfl 1.5 sk
DB Marcelino Ball: 56 tkl 6.5 tfl 2.5 sk 1INT
DB Bryant Fitzgerald: 29 tkl 2.0 tfl 3INT
DL Allen Stallings: 22 tkl 6.0 tfl 2.0 sk
Key Injuries:
QB Michael Penix Jr: OUT
WR David Felton: OUT
TE TJ Ivy: OUT
RB Cole Gest: OUT
WR Miles Marshall: OUT
WR Jacolby Hewitt: OUT
WR Whop Philyor: OUT
OL Mackenzie Nworah: OUT
LB Raekwon Jones: Probable
LB Caleb Jones: First Half Suspension (Targeting)
Team Stats:
Purdue:
Rushing Offense: 142.2
Passing Offense: 318.5
Total Offense: 460.7
Rushing Defense: 166.6
Passing Defense: 270.7
Total Defense: 437.4
Turnover Margin: -3
Offensive S&P+: 36.0 (17th)
Defensive S&P+: 29.6 (74th)
Special Teams S&P+: -.1 (70th)
Overall S&P+: 6.3 (42nd) [last week: 40th)
Points / Game: 32.3
Points Allowed / Game: 27.8
Indiana:
Rushing Offense: 158.7
Passing Offense: 249.9
Total Offense: 408.6
Rushing Defense: 188.0
Passing Defense: 234.3
Total Defense: 422.3
Turnover Margin: +5
Offensive S&P+: 27.9 (81st)
Defensive S&P+: 29.7 (75th)
Special Teams S&P+: .8 (42nd)
Overall S&P+: -1.1 (80th) [last week: 80th)
Points / Game: 26.9
Points Allowed / Game: 30.1
Other Odds & Ends:
ESPN's FPI: Purdue 63.2%
Spread: -4 Purdue
Over/Under: 65.5
Keys to the Game:
1: More Moore...please: Rondale is only 106 total yards away from 2000 total yards for the season from scrimmage. His 91 receptions place him tied for 3rd in a single season (1st: Chris Daniels 121 2nd Rodney Carter 98) and 1,023 yards place him 11th in a single season (10th: Brian Alford 1,057 1st: 1,307 yards). Moore will likely have ample opportunities to be used in the both the passing and the running game as Brohm will look to use all available options to return the Boilers to a bowl game in his second season. If Moore can get in the range of 250 all purpose yards, he could break Dorien Bryant's single season yardage record of 2,121 yards from 2007.
2: Who Carries The Load?: Last season, Brohm used Markell Jones exclusively to punish the poor Hoosier defense for 31 carries and 217 yards. It was vintage Boilermaker football that had many reliving memories of Mike Astott, Leroy Keyes, and Otis Armstrong running wild against the Hoosiers to win the Old Oaken Bucket. It would go a very long way for the deep passing attack that Purdue has relied heavily upon this year if they can establish the run. With the exception of the first two games where Purdue rushed for 202 and 341 yards respectively, Purdue has not had more than 88 yards rushing in losses to Missouri, MSU, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. In fact, Purdue has averaged only 67 yards rushing in the last four losses. In their 5 victories so far this season, Purdue has averaged 150 yards rushing and that includes only 76 yards against Boston College. If Purdue wants to win the Bucket, they will likely need to reach 150 yards on the ground, which would be the most since their 161 against Ohio State.
3. Let's Get Physical, Physical: You likely sang some Olivia Newton John in your head but this is a huge key for Purdue's defense after being utterly out played and flat out embarrassed over the last two weeks. Purdue has surrendered an average of 325 yards rushing over the previous two weeks. That simply can't happen against a very capable running game from Indiana and likely All Freshman Team and potential Freshman AA Stevie Scott. Outside of Rondale Moore, Scott has been the breakout freshman of the year rushing for over 1,000 yards. In Purdue's victories this season, they have given just 121.4 rushing yards per game and that includes the 259 Nebraska racked up against them. Take that game out and Purdue gives up just 87 yards per game on the ground in victories. Indiana averages 158.7 yards per game but Scott has been able to get over 100 yards rushing the last four consecutive games. Controlling Scott means making Peyton Ramsey more one dimensional which bodes well for Purdue.
Prediction:
Purdue should win this game. Purdue has more talent at the skill positions, has a more talented QB, and has the better LB's. Both defensive lines aren't great at getting to the QB BUT Indiana has a penchant for getting key turnovers in situations that have kept them in some ball games they shouldn't have been in. If Indiana can be +2 in the TO margin along with establishing Scott for more than 150 yards rushing, Indiana will win this game. That being said, I think Purdue slips by for the second year in a row to win the Old Oaken Bucket and get bowl eligible.
Purdue: 41
Indiana: 36
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