Looking Ahead: Purdue @ Illinois

[JohnnyDoeBoiler]

Key Players:
Purdue:
David Blough: 103/151 68.2% 1318 7TD 1INT 155.5rtg
Rondale Moore: 41 rec 457 yards 11.1avr 4TD 7 rush 136 yards 19.4avr 1TD (13KR 269 yards)(895 total yards)
DJ Knox: 70 rush 390 yards 5TD
Brycen Hopkins: 17rec 308 yards 18.1avr 2TD
Marcus Bailey: 40 tackles 5.5TFL 4.5s acks
Derrick Barnes: 38 tackles 4.0TFL 3.0 sacks
Cornel Jones: 35 tackles 8.0TFL 2.5 sacks
Kenneth Major: 13 tackles 2INT 1 pass defended
Jacob Thieneman: 37 tackles 3.0TFL 2.0 sacks

Illinois:
QB AJ Bush: 28/48 58.3% 3TD 1INT 199.8rtg 44 rush 258 yards 5.9avr 2TD
RB Reggie Corbin: 59 att 464 yards 7.9avr 5TD
RB Mike Epstein: 57 att 387 yards 6.8avr 3TD
WR Ricky Smalling: 11 rec 150 yards 3TD
LB Jake Hanson: 38 tackles 6.0TFL
DL Bobby Roundtree: 29 tackles 4.0TFL 3.0 sacks
LB Del'Shawn Phillips: 39 tackles 2.5TFL 3INT
DB Jartavius Martin: 23 tackles 1TFL 3INT

Team Stats:
Purdue:
Total Offensive Yards: 490.0 (19th)
Passing Yards: 320.2 (12th)
Rushing Yards: 169.8 (73rd)
Total Defense: 447.2 (106th)
Defensive Passing Yards: 284.8 (t116th)
Defensive Rushing Yards: 162.4 (69th)
Team Sacks: 2.6/game (t39th)
Turnover Margin: -1 (t83rd)
Red Zone Offense: .875% (49th)
Red Zone Defense: .842% (69th)
3rd Down Conversion: .453% (27th)
Defensive 3rd Down Conversion: .304% (19th)
Opponent Passer Rating: 131.9

Illinois:
Total Offensive Yards: 411.0 (66th)
Passing Yards: 150.2 (117th)
Rushing Yards: 260.8 (13th)
Total Defense: 483.4 (114th)
Defensive Passing Yards: 289.4 (118th)
Defensive Rushing Yards: 194.0 (t99th)
Team Sacks: 1.6/game (t93rd)
Turnover Margin: +8 (5th)
Red Zone Offense: .800% (t98th)
Red Zone Defense: .778% (40th)
3rd Down Conversion: .365 (91st)
Defensive 3rd Down Conversion: .373 (65th)
Opponent Passer Rating: 134.2

ESPN's FPI places Purdue as a 72.9% favorite
Vegas places Purdue as a 10.5 point favorite

Thoughts:
The glaring piece where Purdue has an advantage is obviously in the passing game where Illinois has struggled to throw the ball consistently along with giving up huge chunks of yards in the passing game. Purdue's glaring issue of covering the pass may be able to be covered up by a somewhat run first QB who hasn't shown a high ability to throw the ball consistently throughout the season up to this point. Purdue also is very good about getting off the field defensively on 3rd down. The key point will come down to if Illinois is able to turn Purdue over multiple times as they have throughout each game this season. If Purdue doesn't turn the ball over and plays to its' ability, Purdue should be able to put up 40+ points and Illinois just doesn't have the firepower to keep up.

Prediction:
Purdue: 48
Illinois: 34

 

[BoilerFYF]

Key Players:
Purdue:
David Blough: 103/151 68.2% 1318 7TD 1INT 155.5rtg
Rondale Moore: 41 rec 457 yards 11.1avr 4TD 7 rush 136 yards 19.4avr 1TD (13KR 269 yards)(895 total yards)
DJ Knox: 70 rush 390 yards 5TD
Brycen Hopkins: 17rec 308 yards 18.1avr 2TD
Marcus Bailey: 40 tackles 5.5TFL 4.5s acks
Derrick Barnes: 38 tackles 4.0TFL 3.0 sacks
Cornel Jones: 35 tackles 8.0TFL 2.5 sacks
Kenneth Major: 13 tackles 2INT 1 pass defended
Jacob Thieneman: 37 tackles 3.0TFL 2.0 sacks

Illinois:
QB AJ Bush: 28/48 58.3% 3TD 1INT 199.8rtg 44 rush 258 yards 5.9avr 2TD
RB Reggie Corbin: 59 att 464 yards 7.9avr 5TD
RB Mike Epstein: 57 att 387 yards 6.8avr 3TD
WR Ricky Smalling: 11 rec 150 yards 3TD
LB Jake Hanson: 38 tackles 6.0TFL
DL Bobby Roundtree: 29 tackles 4.0TFL 3.0 sacks
LB Del'Shawn Phillips: 39 tackles 2.5TFL 3INT
DB Jartavius Martin: 23 tackles 1TFL 3INT

Team Stats:
Purdue:
Total Offensive Yards: 490.0 (19th)
Passing Yards: 320.2 (12th)
Rushing Yards: 169.8 (73rd)
Total Defense: 447.2 (106th)
Defensive Passing Yards: 284.8 (t116th)
Defensive Rushing Yards: 162.4 (69th)
Team Sacks: 2.6/game (t39th)
Turnover Margin: -1 (t83rd)
Red Zone Offense: .875% (49th)
Red Zone Defense: .842% (69th)
3rd Down Conversion: .453% (27th)
Defensive 3rd Down Conversion: .304% (19th)
Opponent Passer Rating: 131.9

Illinois:
Total Offensive Yards: 411.0 (66th)
Passing Yards: 150.2 (117th)
Rushing Yards: 260.8 (13th)
Total Defense: 483.4 (114th)
Defensive Passing Yards: 289.4 (118th)
Defensive Rushing Yards: 194.0 (t99th)
Team Sacks: 1.6/game (t93rd)
Turnover Margin: +8 (5th)
Red Zone Offense: .800% (t98th)
Red Zone Defense: .778% (40th)
3rd Down Conversion: .365 (91st)
Defensive 3rd Down Conversion: .373 (65th)
Opponent Passer Rating: 134.2

ESPN's FPI places Purdue as a 72.9% favorite
Vegas places Purdue as a 10.5 point favorite

Thoughts:
The glaring piece where Purdue has an advantage is obviously in the passing game where Illinois has struggled to throw the ball consistently along with giving up huge chunks of yards in the passing game. Purdue's glaring issue of covering the pass may be able to be covered up by a somewhat run first QB who hasn't shown a high ability to throw the ball consistently throughout the season up to this point. Purdue also is very good about getting off the field defensively on 3rd down. The key point will come down to if Illinois is able to turn Purdue over multiple times as they have throughout each game this season. If Purdue doesn't turn the ball over and plays to its' ability, Purdue should be able to put up 40+ points and Illinois just doesn't have the firepower to keep up.

Prediction:
Purdue: 48
Illinois: 34

Nice yeoman like breakdown. To me, this is the game where brohms “big DB” thing will be put to the test. I think the size and tackling ability of our corners is good. And with reduced passing threat, this could be a game where Tim Cason and Antonio Blackmon really come to play. I do hope we go small all game. If our lineup was a space covering lineup of:

SSDE Reviere/Higgins
DT Neal
DT Watts
Leo Barnes
LB Bailey
LB Jones
NB Blackmon/Smiley/B.Thieneman
CB Major
S Thieneman
S Mosley
CB Mackey/Cason

I’d be thrilled. “But Higgins starts on the right side.” Illinois isn’t going to run us over. Covering space is key.

 

[FirstDownB]

The thing that jumps out to me about Illinois is, although they have good rushing stats, they are not necessarily a good ball control offense. They don't appear to have the ability to sustain drive after drive with their rushing attack, ripping off 5-10 yard gains at will like a Wisconsin.

Consider their drives that have resulted in touchdowns so far this season.

Kent St (4 td): 4 plays-52 yds, 3-59, 3-55, 8-55
W. Illinois (3 td): 5 plays-45 yds, 6-69, 2-3
Penn St (3 td): 6 plays-74 yds, 5-75, 9-75
Rutgers (5 td): 8 plays-75 yds, 3-47, 1-73, 12-74, 1-41

Disregarding the one drive where they got the ball at the opponent's 3 yard line, their average touchdown drive is 5.3 plays and 62.1 yards. That screams big plays, mostly in the run game. The key for our defense is preventing those big plays - prevent successful 10-15 yard runs from becoming lethal 40+ yard runs. Our secondary needs to play sound assignment football, take good angles, and wrap up.

 

[JohnnyDoeBoiler]

The thing that jumps out to me about Illinois is, although they have good rushing stats, they are not necessarily a good ball control offense. They don't appear to have the ability to sustain drive after drive with their rushing attack, ripping off 5-10 yard gains at will like a Wisconsin.

Consider their drives that have resulted in touchdowns so far this season.

Kent St (4 td): 4 plays-52 yds, 3-59, 3-55, 8-55
W. Illinois (3 td): 5 plays-45 yds, 6-69, 2-3
Penn St (3 td): 6 plays-74 yds, 5-75, 9-75
Rutgers (5 td): 8 plays-75 yds, 3-47, 1-73, 12-74, 1-41

Disregarding the one drive where they got the ball at the opponent's 3 yard line, their average touchdown drive is 5.3 plays and 62.1 yards. That screams big plays, mostly in the run game. The key for our defense is preventing those big plays - prevent successful 10-15 yard runs from becoming lethal 40+ yard runs. Our secondary needs to play sound assignment football, take good angles, and wrap up.

I think there is enough tape on Bush to be able to scheme properly against him and notice what he does and doesn’t do well.

I think he is a Lamar Jackson type without that ability to throw the ball on a consistent basis.

 

[BoilerFYF]

The thing that jumps out to me about Illinois is, although they have good rushing stats, they are not necessarily a good ball control offense. They don't appear to have the ability to sustain drive after drive with their rushing attack, ripping off 5-10 yard gains at will like a Wisconsin.

Consider their drives that have resulted in touchdowns so far this season.

Kent St (4 td): 4 plays-52 yds, 3-59, 3-55, 8-55
W. Illinois (3 td): 5 plays-45 yds, 6-69, 2-3
Penn St (3 td): 6 plays-74 yds, 5-75, 9-75
Rutgers (5 td): 8 plays-75 yds, 3-47, 1-73, 12-74, 1-41

Disregarding the one drive where they got the ball at the opponent's 3 yard line, their average touchdown drive is 5.3 plays and 62.1 yards. That screams big plays, mostly in the run game. The key for our defense is preventing those big plays - prevent successful 10-15 yard runs from becoming lethal 40+ yard runs. Our secondary needs to play sound assignment football, take good angles, and wrap up.

Don’t you feel like the game could go one of two ways based on how the first couple Illinois drives go? Like if we score and they fumble .. we might not look back. If we go three and out and they go 90 yards on 6 plays it could go down to the wire.

 

[arcb102000]

I believe that Purdue knows that they need this game if they want a bowl bid. It is a road game so nothing is certain and can be taken for granted. Thus, they are likely to be focused. Illinois is fair at best. Purdue is the better team with more skilled position players. I think that Purdue wins by double digits.

 

[TopSecretBoiler]

Time for Rondale to collect another BTPoTW award.

 

[Roeder]

Time for Rondale to collect another BTPoTW award.

He is due to return a kick for a touchdown. Could this be the game?

 

[Roeder]

Key Players:
Purdue:
David Blough: 103/151 68.2% 1318 7TD 1INT 155.5rtg
Rondale Moore: 41 rec 457 yards 11.1avr 4TD 7 rush 136 yards 19.4avr 1TD (13KR 269 yards)(895 total yards)
DJ Knox: 70 rush 390 yards 5TD
Brycen Hopkins: 17rec 308 yards 18.1avr 2TD
Marcus Bailey: 40 tackles 5.5TFL 4.5s acks
Derrick Barnes: 38 tackles 4.0TFL 3.0 sacks
Cornel Jones: 35 tackles 8.0TFL 2.5 sacks
Kenneth Major: 13 tackles 2INT 1 pass defended
Jacob Thieneman: 37 tackles 3.0TFL 2.0 sacks

Illinois:
QB AJ Bush: 28/48 58.3% 3TD 1INT 199.8rtg 44 rush 258 yards 5.9avr 2TD
RB Reggie Corbin: 59 att 464 yards 7.9avr 5TD
RB Mike Epstein: 57 att 387 yards 6.8avr 3TD
WR Ricky Smalling: 11 rec 150 yards 3TD
LB Jake Hanson: 38 tackles 6.0TFL
DL Bobby Roundtree: 29 tackles 4.0TFL 3.0 sacks
LB Del'Shawn Phillips: 39 tackles 2.5TFL 3INT
DB Jartavius Martin: 23 tackles 1TFL 3INT

Team Stats:
Purdue:
Total Offensive Yards: 490.0 (19th)
Passing Yards: 320.2 (12th)
Rushing Yards: 169.8 (73rd)
Total Defense: 447.2 (106th)
Defensive Passing Yards: 284.8 (t116th)
Defensive Rushing Yards: 162.4 (69th)
Team Sacks: 2.6/game (t39th)
Turnover Margin: -1 (t83rd)
Red Zone Offense: .875% (49th)
Red Zone Defense: .842% (69th)
3rd Down Conversion: .453% (27th)
Defensive 3rd Down Conversion: .304% (19th)
Opponent Passer Rating: 131.9

Illinois:
Total Offensive Yards: 411.0 (66th)
Passing Yards: 150.2 (117th)
Rushing Yards: 260.8 (13th)
Total Defense: 483.4 (114th)
Defensive Passing Yards: 289.4 (118th)
Defensive Rushing Yards: 194.0 (t99th)
Team Sacks: 1.6/game (t93rd)
Turnover Margin: +8 (5th)
Red Zone Offense: .800% (t98th)
Red Zone Defense: .778% (40th)
3rd Down Conversion: .365 (91st)
Defensive 3rd Down Conversion: .373 (65th)
Opponent Passer Rating: 134.2

ESPN's FPI places Purdue as a 72.9% favorite
Vegas places Purdue as a 10.5 point favorite

Thoughts:
The glaring piece where Purdue has an advantage is obviously in the passing game where Illinois has struggled to throw the ball consistently along with giving up huge chunks of yards in the passing game. Purdue's glaring issue of covering the pass may be able to be covered up by a somewhat run first QB who hasn't shown a high ability to throw the ball consistently throughout the season up to this point. Purdue also is very good about getting off the field defensively on 3rd down. The key point will come down to if Illinois is able to turn Purdue over multiple times as they have throughout each game this season. If Purdue doesn't turn the ball over and plays to its' ability, Purdue should be able to put up 40+ points and Illinois just doesn't have the firepower to keep up.

Prediction:
Purdue: 48
Illinois: 34

Bloughs numbers are ridiculous so far. I like this match up on paper and agree Purude should win by 2 TDs. Hopefully there is no lull after the bye week and they jump out early.

 

[anon_y5n942o85fk69]

As a bears fan.
Lovie seems like the same team.
Come off the bus running.
Force tournovers in the Tampa 2.

If we can shut down the run, get them to pass by being down. And don't turn the ball over

Ala BC

Put the "W" in the bag.

 

[JohnnyDoeBoiler]

As a bears fan.
Lovie seems like the same team.
Come off the bus running.
Force tournovers in the Tampa 2.

If we can shut down the run, get them to pass by being down. And don't turn the ball over

Ala BC

Put the "W" in the bag.

I don't necessarily follow the NFL much beyond keeping track of former Boilers...but did Lovie's teams struggle when the defense didn't get turnovers in Chicago?

 

[Bullwhip Griffith]

I don't necessarily follow the NFL much beyond keeping track of former Boilers...but did Lovie's teams struggle when the defense didn't get turnovers in Chicago?

Yes, usually because the offense couldn’t sustain long drives. Needed the short field to score. Either a turnover by the defense or good return by Hester

 

[FirstDownB]

I wonder if he's teaching the Peanut Tillman ball punch