Batten down the hatches - This has the makings of a historic storm. History says this curves out to sea or grazes the grand banks, but the High looks too strong for climatology to win.
Kescwi
- Thread starter Beeazlebub
- Start date
I had noticed it yesterday on NOAA and didn't think that much of it figuring it would do the usual right/north turning as the week went on. Looks like she is going to start moving at a pretty good clip after the weekend so will be keeping an eye on it.Batten down the hatches - This has the makings of a historic storm. History says this curves out to sea or grazes the grand banks, but the High looks too strong for climatology to win.
crap. i could get hit by this too. stupid hurricanes. those 2 disturbances behind this could be interesting as well.
I think we are good, but she isn’t deviating much... I say just befor the next update.Batten down the hatches - This has the makings of a historic storm. History says this curves out to sea or grazes the grand banks, but the High looks too strong for climatology to win.
You're near Charleston, correct? Wouldn't take much deviation to the south to bring the SC coast into play, but yeah, you're probably spared landfalling impacts. This will be a major hurricane with a large wind-field, so the wind damage could go pretty far inland. If it stalls after landfall, like many models are indicating, the flooding will be catastrophic.
On a side note, the GFS (US) model has been sub-standard as usual when compared to the ECMWF (Euro). It's due to be replaced next season by the FV3-GFS, and the newer model looks to be much improved.
I've got reservations for MB the Sunday after she hits. Then Charleston and Savannah the next week. My late wife and got caught in one in the OB several years back.
The Weather Channel stated yesterday that Charleston's shelters would not withstand a Cat and that those folks should head inland.
I can give somebody a roof near Charlotte. But depending on your point of view, political discussions may be off the breakfast table.
Yes I live across the bridge from Chas.
Yeah it's still one for us to watch.
This one is a big one and if it slows down the way they are predicting, or stalls, it will compound the trouble. Also looks like it may come ashore at high tide, none of it's looking any good.
Looking at the latest update, you may be the one in for it.I can give somebody a roof near Charlotte. But depending on your point of view, political discussions may be off the breakfast table.
Coul
which was still a hurricane when it hit here.
Could be. As long as it's not Hugo again....
which was still a hurricane when it hit here.
Ugh, with this Euro!!!, the latest doesn't look good and I am now getting concerned, a storm that size skipping down the coast would not be good.Last night's euro ensemble - SC interests are hoping today's run is farther north.
You're smart to be concerned. Even the GFS is coming in line with some sort of left turn. Some real uncertainty in what happens after 72 hours, and I'm sure many down coast aren't aware of a more southerly eventuality. My family as far south as Savannah aren't out of the woods either.
Charleston proper floods during thunderstorms in the summer. A big storm surge hitting town with that rain would not be good.
My Dad lives only a few miles from Folly Beach. Refuses to evacuate because he's convinced that its only going to be "some wind and rain."
Which of course means I'm going to be super stressed about the whole thing for days.
They're now saying it could hang on the coast for three to four days and could also head south.
It’s been strange down here, with the two models being so different for the past few days, the state ordering a mandatory evacuation when all everyone is seeing and hearing is that it will land in NC...
My wife and I have gone to neutral corners for awhile over if/when to leave. When had a house in Mandeville during Katrina, so for us the problem is not getting out before the storm but getting back in once it’s passed. We never saw the Louisiana house again. It had been on the market a couple weeks before the storm, we were told for three weeks we couldn’t get in there but got lucky and realtor rented it as soon as the neighborhood was cleared, she and/or renters paid to repair and clean the lot and they bought the home within a month. The problem this time is, this is my home, I run my business from here, and if I’m here I will be busy, if stuck trying to get back it would have a negative impact on the bottom line.
However, I want my wife to go and the boy is living on James Island and staying there unless my wife needs him to take her and the cats away. She is refusing to leave without me and that is troubling because I don’t want him staying on JI.
I will probably give it until the 5am update tomorrow to decide.
I hope your family stays safe.
Get out....The Demolibs need your vote.
Seriously....it's not worth the risk. I just hope it peters out.
Somehow compromise to get him to stay at your house? Tough call.
As far as the storm goes, the most certain aspect is that it will slow to a crawl & move W or even SW near or after landfall. Worst case scenario for most people is that it stays just off-shore, then meanders SW - all the while raking the coast with hurricane force winds & torrential rains. Surge prone areas in this scenario could be overwhelmed.
Wind-field is also increasing, so this could behave more similarly to Ike (Galveston) than Hugo (Charleston). Hurricane force winds expand 60nm in all quadrants other than the SW (40nm
While good news, this can be a bit of fool's gold due to the expansive wind-field. Folks hear cat 2 & think they can ride it out, but this is not an ordinary cat 2.
