John Groce - hot commodity

[reswat]

At the end of 2012, John Groce had just taken Ohio U to the sweet sixteen. He was a hot commodity and got hired at Illinois. I remember thinking at the time that he must be a good coach and that Illinois would be improving significantly going forward. Here is his record since then:

2012–13 Illinois 23–13 8–10 T–7th NCAA Third Round
2013–14 Illinois 20–15 7–11 T–8th NIT Second Round
2014–15 Illinois 19–14 9–9 T–7th NIT First Round
2015–16 Illinois 15–19

I suspect that if he had just taken Ohio U to the sweet sixteen here in 2016, many would be suggesting him as a great hire for Purdue. It's not quite as easy as it seems.

As I said before, my perceptions is that any coach who would come to Purdue would have only about a 10% chance of being better than Painter.

I believe Painter is a very good coach. In my mind, I think we have maybe a 40% of getting to a Final Four if he stays at Purdue for the next 10 years. To restate may earlier statement in just a slightly different way, I think our chances of hiring a coach who would have a higher likelihood of taking Purdue to a Final Four are probably about 10%.

 

[boilersallthewaynow]

At the end of 2012, John Groce had just taken Ohio U to the sweet sixteen. He was a hot commodity and got hired at Illinois. I remember thinking at the time that he must be a good coach and that Illinois would be improving significantly going forward. Here is his record since then:

2012–13 Illinois 23–13 8–10 T–7th NCAA Third Round
2013–14 Illinois 20–15 7–11 T–8th NIT Second Round
2014–15 Illinois 19–14 9–9 T–7th NIT First Round
2015–16 Illinois 15–19

I suspect that if he had just taken Ohio U to the sweet sixteen here in 2016, many would be suggesting him as a great hire for Purdue. It's not quite as easy as it seems.

As I said before, my perceptions is that any coach who would come to Purdue would have only about a 10% chance of being better than Painter.

I believe Painter is a very good coach. In my mind, I think we have maybe a 40% of getting to a Final Four if he stays at Purdue for the next 10 years. To restate may earlier statement in just a slightly different way, I think our chances of hiring a coach who would have a higher likelihood of taking Purdue to a Final Four are probably about 10%.

Wow, then we are doomed because the only way I see Painter making it to the Final Four is if he purchases a ticket and peddles himself there.

11 years is enough data.

But you go ahead on and sustain your faith in CMP.

Good luck and I honestly mean it.

 

[BoilerDaddy]

At the end of 2012, John Groce had just taken Ohio U to the sweet sixteen. He was a hot commodity and got hired at Illinois. I remember thinking at the time that he must be a good coach and that Illinois would be improving significantly going forward. Here is his record since then:

2012–13 Illinois 23–13 8–10 T–7th NCAA Third Round
2013–14 Illinois 20–15 7–11 T–8th NIT Second Round
2014–15 Illinois 19–14 9–9 T–7th NIT First Round
2015–16 Illinois 15–19

I suspect that if he had just taken Ohio U to the sweet sixteen here in 2016, many would be suggesting him as a great hire for Purdue. It's not quite as easy as it seems.

As I said before, my perceptions is that any coach who would come to Purdue would have only about a 10% chance of being better than Painter.

I believe Painter is a very good coach. In my mind, I think we have maybe a 40% of getting to a Final Four if he stays at Purdue for the next 10 years. To restate may earlier statement in just a slightly different way, I think our chances of hiring a coach who would have a higher likelihood of taking Purdue to a Final Four are probably about 10%.

This is a good example, but not an isolated one. This kind of thing happens often.

 

[reswat]

Wow, then we are doomed because the only way I see Painter making it to the Final Four is if he purchases a ticket and peddles himself there.

11 years is enough data.

But you go ahead on and sustain your faith in CMP.

Good luck and I honestly mean it.

How confident are you that you could hire somebody who would be better? Don't you agree that John Groce looked like a very good hire after the 2012 season?

 

[rustcr]

How confident are you that you could hire somebody who would be better? Don't you agree that John Groce looked like a very good hire after the 2012 season?

Just because dumb hires happen doesn't mean good ones can't. I think we are all a little gun shy due to Burke being the AD for so long.

 

[reswat]

Just because dumb hires happen doesn't mean good ones can't. I think we are all a little gun shy due to Burke being the AD for so long.

I agree that good hires can happen. Some lottery tickets actually do win... but most don't.

(And by the way, I don't think the hiring of Groce was a "dumb hire")

When deciding about Painter's future, this is not the correct question: "Is it possible to hire someone better than Painter". The answer is obviously "Yes".

The question to ask is: "What are the chances we can hire someone better than Painter?" In my mind, the chances are low.

 

[IndySouthsider]

No it's dumb to hire based on limited results.

That's own you get a Hazell

 

[rgarlitz]

I remember the John Groce hire well. I follow the Ohio U. Bobcats because I'm an OU alum (as well as a Purdue alum).

There was plenty of trepidation about his hire at Illinois in 2012. Groce wasn't the school's first choice. I can't remember who turned them down, maybe Shaka Smart?

Anyway, many Illini fans felt that Groce's resume was remarkably thin save for his two great NCAA tournament runs in 2010 and 2012.

His winning percentage at Ohio was only about .600, and he went just 34-30 in MAC games.

Groce was something of a commodity because of his NCAA tournament success, but a lot of Illinois fans felt underwhelmed.

 

[Dakota Girl]

In the end a coach can not be better than the level of talent he can recruit. He can be worse but not better. Coach K with a few four stars, a few three stars, and a couple two stars throughout his career would mean Duke would not be the Duke we have known for so long. Painter with a steady stream of five stars blended into a base of four stars might be an elite coach. We will never know until the talent walking in the door is that high. If consistent final fours and banners is your measure of success, history says you will be disappointed here, unless recruiting is elite.

 

[IU-Ron]

I agree Dakota Girl....but also Painter is not going to get the 4 and 5 stars because the kids today want a NBA game attack....no motion offense with big slow center....that's outdated......PU is the 4th best in the State and also have to compete with Illinois,Mich,Mich St,Ohio St,Louisville for recruits.......all reasonable driving distance......Painter has been here 11 years and has no one leaving early for the Pros.....4 year players are great but you also need the a few great ones that leave early to ever make a run at Final 4.......tough situtation

 

[reswat]

I remember the John Groce hire well. I follow the Ohio U. Bobcats because I'm an OU alum (as well as a Purdue alum).

There was plenty of trepidation about his hire at Illinois in 2012. Groce wasn't the school's first choice. I can't remember who turned them down, maybe Shaka Smart?

Anyway, many Illini fans felt that Groce's resume was remarkably thin save for his two great NCAA tournament runs in 2010 and 2012.

His winning percentage at Ohio was only about .600, and he went just 34-30 in MAC games.

Groce was something of a commodity because of his NCAA tournament success, but a lot of Illinois fans felt underwhelmed.

That's good information and changes my perspective just a little. Maybe the hire wasn't quite as smart as I assumed, but his tenure at Ohio does seem to have a generally upward trajectory.

I still think it difficult to know who will be successful when making the jump to a new level of coaching.

 

[Dakota Girl]

I agree Dakota Girl....but also Painter is not going to get the 4 and 5 stars because the kids today want a NBA game attack....no motion offense with big slow center....that's outdated......PU is the 4th best in the State and also have to compete with Illinois,Mich,Mich St,Ohio St,Louisville for recruits.......all reasonable driving distance......Painter has been here 11 years and has no one leaving early for the Pros.....4 year players are great but you also need the a few great ones that leave early to ever make a run at Final 4.......tough situtation

I think you make it a bit more bleak than it really is. It is fourth position in the state if you go by tournament exit but out of four that all went to the tournament. Purdues problem was not at center but at the one and two guard positions. I don't believe that you have to play four guards and a forward in a five out offense to win. But you do have to handle ball better than Purdue did. As far 4 stars go we have them. We have one 5 star. More importantly we have a 4 star point coming. What we get from the one spot will be the key to the next two years. More fives would help

 

[*4purdue*]

At the end of 2012, John Groce had just taken Ohio U to the sweet sixteen. He was a hot commodity and got hired at Illinois. I remember thinking at the time that he must be a good coach and that Illinois would be improving significantly going forward. Here is his record since then:

2012–13 Illinois 23–13 8–10 T–7th NCAA Third Round
2013–14 Illinois 20–15 7–11 T–8th NIT Second Round
2014–15 Illinois 19–14 9–9 T–7th NIT First Round
2015–16 Illinois 15–19

I suspect that if he had just taken Ohio U to the sweet sixteen here in 2016, many would be suggesting him as a great hire for Purdue. It's not quite as easy as it seems.

As I said before, my perceptions is that any coach who would come to Purdue would have only about a 10% chance of being better than Painter.

I believe Painter is a very good coach. In my mind, I think we have maybe a 40% of getting to a Final Four if he stays at Purdue for the next 10 years. To restate may earlier statement in just a slightly different way, I think our chances of hiring a coach who would have a higher likelihood of taking Purdue to a Final Four are probably about 10%.

Groce was not a good hire and was not Illinois top choice. They ended up settling for him after being rejected. I remember at the time thinking that was a terrible hire. There have been several Illinois trolls on this board and I remind them of that everytime. I'm not a CMP fan, but yes, he is much better than Groce. I'm guessing he would be gone if they didn't decide to start with FB first. Doubt he will survive another year though.

 

[PaBoiler78]

I think you make it a bit more bleak than it really is. It is fourth position in the state if you go by tournament exit but out of four that all went to the tournament. Purdues problem was not at center but at the one and two guard positions. I don't believe that you have to play four guards and a forward in a five out offense to win. But you do have to handle ball better than Purdue did. As far 4 stars go we have them. We have one 5 star. More importantly we have a 4 star point coming. What we get from the one spot will be the key to the next two years. More fives would help

what also hurts is having an occasional 4 stars that don't progress or get better.

 

[Dakota Girl]

what also hurts is having an occasional 4 stars that don't progress or get better.

That does hurt. That's why consistent recruiting at that level is so important.

 

[PaBoiler78]

That does hurt. That's why consistent recruiting at that level is so important.

I agree.

 

[Dakota Girl]

I agree.

It's been pretty good the last couple years. Edwards and 2017 will need to continue it.

 

[Heller]

I remember the John Groce hire well. I follow the Ohio U. Bobcats because I'm an OU alum (as well as a Purdue alum).

There was plenty of trepidation about his hire at Illinois in 2012. Groce wasn't the school's first choice. I can't remember who turned them down, maybe Shaka Smart?

Anyway, many Illini fans felt that Groce's resume was remarkably thin save for his two great NCAA tournament runs in 2010 and 2012.

His winning percentage at Ohio was only about .600, and he went just 34-30 in MAC games.

Groce was something of a commodity because of his NCAA tournament success, but a lot of Illinois fans felt underwhelmed.

I,followed Groce when he was at Ohio. The seats I sat in at BSU were so close we would often talk to opposing coaches and watch how they interacted with the players. Groce players look to continually have him tuned out talking to each other and not very into the game. IOW didn't seem the players respected him which is why I was underwhelmed that they traded Bruce for Bruce light.