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Ivey going #1

Aug 14, 2008
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Thought I'd get a different topic started here as NIL is bringing me down.

Despite some of the knuckleheads on this board, Ivey's stock is high and is assuredly going in the top 4 picks. Nbadraft.net has him going #1 to Houston.

Additionally, with Ja Morant tearing it up, I think that bodes well for Ivey as he is often compared to Morant.

Thoughts?
 
Houston might not get the #1 pick. Here is a recent ESPN article discussing Houston and their draft pick. They do discuss Ivey in the article.

Houston Rockets​

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No. 1 pick odds: 14% | Top-three odds: 40%

Player the Rockets should select with the No. 1 pick:
Chet Holmgren

The Rockets would surely be excited to add any of the elite frontcourt players projected at the top in Holmgren, Smith or Banchero. You could make an argument that each of them is an ideal fit considering their strengths. Smith's combination of dynamic shooting and perimeter defense is just as much of a need as the shot-creation, passing and shot-making Banchero offers.

Holmgren gets the nod here in my view as the most talented player in the draft, as well as having the most potential to impact the Rockets' defense, which ranked last in the NBA last year, as no other team gave up more points in the paint last season.

Holmgren's elite combination of mobility, length and timing, which helped him average 5.3 blocks per-40 minutes, should help alleviate Houston's defensive struggles immediately.

Holmgren also looks like an ideal fit next to franchise cornerstone Jalen Green, the No. 2 pick in the 2021 draft, with his ability to both space the floor (39% 3P%), and finish around the basket (74% 2P%). He's lethal busting out off the defensive glass, and holds significant potential as a shot-creator and passer himself, something we didn't see as much of at Gonzaga where he was asked to play more of a complementary role.

Holmgren is also a good fit alongside Houston's 2021 first-rounder Alperen Sengun, an extremely skilled offensive player who desperately needs to be paired with the right frontcourt partner to be most effective. He'd also have no issues playing alongside incumbent starter Christian Wood, the Rockets' leading scorer, who is very skilled in his own right.

Most important is the impact Holmgren could make on helping the Rockets establish a winning culture. He plays a selfless style of basketball while bringing the type of toughness and unselfishness the team sorely lacks.

- Givony

Player the Rockets should select if they fall out of the top three: Jaden Ivey or Keegan Murray

Despite having the NBA's worst record, the Rockets still have a 60% chance of falling to the No. 4 or 5 slot, which would be an incredibly disappointing outcome, but would still leave them in position to draft an impact player.

The prospect of pairing Ivey with Jalen Green in the backcourt is one the Rockets will have to closely study in this scenario. They'd form, arguably, the most explosive backcourt in the NBA with their transition-scoring prowess, ability to powerfully beat opponents off the dribble and highlight-reel finishing operating above the rim. They also duplicate each other somewhat with their streaky shooting, inconsistent decision-making and defensive lapses, but would have quite a bit of room to grow together long-term, as both are just 20 years old (born four days apart). While big men are the strength of this draft, there's no question that shot-creating guards are the engines behind the best teams in the NBA. For Houston, a chance to have two all-star caliber guards in the same backcourt has to be attractive, duplicative or not.

Murray is also someone the Rockets will surely look at. As the best player in college basketball last season, he presents perhaps the most straightforward path back to respectability as a plug-and-play, soon-to-be 22-year-old power forward with elite scoring instincts and a complete all-around game.

Murray averaged a scorching 29 points per-40 (best in this draft class) on outstanding efficiency (65% true shooting) without a real point guard alongside him and often without all that many plays being called for him. He's a versatile defender who spearheaded Iowa's press while also showing the ability to operate as a small-ball center, making him a strong fit alongside Houston's existing frontcourt options.
 
Ivey at number 1 could happen. He has some elite qualities. Top 5 for sure IMO. There are some other guys who are truly unique too. I would have concerns with Holmgren. He doesn’t look sturdy enough to me.
 
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FWIW, Ivey is holding steady at +2500 to be the #1 pick. The top 3 are far and above ahead of him. Jabari Smith is +100, Chet +175, Paolo +300.
 
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I think Ivey has highest upside, especially if you look at how much he has improved every year consistently since his soph year in HS. When will that trend stop?

Also he hits big shots and is not afraid of the moment. Can Smith, Chet, or Paolo say that?

Off the top of my head both OSU game winners, dagger 3 in last minute against Texas, Clutch 3 @ Wisconsin to tie, Deep 3 vs St Peters to cut to 3, etc. The kid has big onions. The OSU game winner at Mackey looked like MJ. Obviously he's not MJ, but how many guys have shots like that on their resume?

Yes his midrange game needs work and him transitioning to a PG will take some growing pains, but this is a guards game now and I wouldn't pass on him over some 6'10 guys who have similar question marks in different areas of their game.
 
I think Ivey has highest upside, especially if you look at how much he has improved every year consistently since his soph year in HS. When will that trend stop?

Also he hits big shots and is not afraid of the moment. Can Smith, Chet, or Paolo say that?

Off the top of my head both OSU game winners, dagger 3 in last minute against Texas, Clutch 3 @ Wisconsin to tie, Deep 3 vs St Peters to cut to 3, etc. The kid has big onions. The OSU game winner at Mackey looked like MJ. Obviously he's not MJ, but how many guys have shots like that on their resume?

Yes his midrange game needs work and him transitioning to a PG will take some growing pains, but this is a guards game now and I wouldn't pass on him over some 6'10 guys who have similar question marks in different areas of their game.

One of the common downsides I am reading on the "consensus" top 3 is athleticism. While they are athletic enough for the NBA, are they explosive/quick enough to be excellent? Ivey doesn't have THAT question, which after the combine/workouts may work out for him.
 
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One of the common downsides I am reading on the "consensus" top 3 is athleticism. While they are athletic enough for the NBA, are they explosive/quick enough to be excellent? Ivey doesn't have THAT question, which after the combine/workouts may work out for him.
You may be right and the other side which may hurt him is being lazy on defense. We will soon see how this all plays out.
 
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One of the common downsides I am reading on the "consensus" top 3 is athleticism. While they are athletic enough for the NBA, are they explosive/quick enough to be excellent? Ivey doesn't have THAT question, which after the combine/workouts may work out for him.

Exactly. What forwards in the NBA could lead their team to a Championship? Lebron, Gianis, Durant, Luka. Maybe I'm missing more, but I don't see any of these forwards ranked ahead of Ivey projecting to have a talent level that could put a franchise in their back, especially in today's NBA.
 
You may be right and the other side which may hurt him is being lazy on defense. We will soon see how this all plays out.

I don't know if he was "lazy" on defense. I don't think he was good at it, for sure. Being out of position because he was ball watching can make it seem like he is being lazy but really its just not being a good defender. This was made all the more glaring on a fairly poor defensive team.

Not uncommon in young players.
 
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If Ivey can continue to develop his game and improve, I think he will be special in the league. Not sure if he is there yet. If I had the number 1 pick however, I would take him! He will definitely go in the top 4 imo.
 
Lottery order will be determined Tuesday night! I remember the hyped Patrick Ewing year when the Pacers came in second and wound up with college great, Wayman Tisdale, RIP. Will they ever get the elusive #1 pick?

Coincidentally, the New York Knickerbockers "winning" and also setting up Elgin Baylor (RIP) to be seemingly the foil every year on cue. Sadly, many remember the hall-of-famer more for that than his spectacular ability on the basketball court.

nba_g_baylor_300.jpg
 
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I don't know if he was "lazy" on defense. I don't think he was good at it, for sure. Being out of position because he was ball watching can make it seem like he is being lazy but really its just not being a good defender. This was made all the more glaring on a fairly poor defensive team.

Not uncommon in young players.
Lazy may not be what I was thinking. I would think his struggles were more about inexperience and attention to detail. I'm not sure I ever saw him not trying hard. He was out of position some times. He tried to block a few shots that he didn't really need to. It is also fair to say that he didn't have a "dominating presence" on the defensive end.

Ivey rebounds pretty well. He gets his fair share of steals. He shoots well. I don't see weaknesses that would keep him out of the top 5 and his upside is through the roof.
 
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Lottery order will be determined Tuesday night! I remember the hyped Patrick Ewing year when the Pacers came in second and wound up with college great, Wayman Tisdale, RIP. Will they ever get the elusive #1 pick?
I read that the Knicks haven't improved their position via the lottery since then. And they've had plenty of opportunities.
 
Orlando has the top pick, OKC #2, Houston #3. and Sacramento #4. Pacers are #6.

Would be great, if he would fall that far to them. Would be a great backcourt with Halliburton.
 
Orlando has the top pick, OKC #2, Houston #3. and Sacramento #4. Pacers are #6.

Would be great, if he would fall that far to them. Would be a great backcourt with Halliburton.
I would try moving up. Package #6 and something else enticing. Tank again to get another high pick next year.
 
Orlando has the top pick, OKC #2, Houston #3. and Sacramento #4. Pacers are #6.

Would be great, if he would fall that far to them. Would be a great backcourt with Halliburton.
Not going to happen. The top 4 picks are locked in, and he’s one of them. Can’t imagine why any of the top 4 teams would trade down either.
 
Not going to happen. The top 4 picks are locked in, and he’s one of them. Can’t imagine why any of the top 4 teams would trade down either.
I don't follow NBA at all, but did watch the lottery ball thing last night. ESPN projection after the teams were drawn did not have Ivey in the top 5 picks. Murray from Iowa was #5.
 
Seems plausible Ivey could go #2 to OKC or #3 to Houston. I dont follow the NBA much, but looking at the Orlando roster they seem set at both guard positions.
 
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