Houston might not get the #1 pick. Here is a recent ESPN article discussing Houston and their draft pick. They do discuss Ivey in the article.
Houston Rockets
No. 1 pick odds: 14% | Top-three odds: 40%
Player the Rockets should select with the No. 1 pick: Chet Holmgren
The Rockets would surely be excited to add any of the elite frontcourt players projected at the top in Holmgren, Smith or Banchero. You could make an argument that each of them is an ideal fit considering their strengths. Smith's combination of dynamic shooting and perimeter defense is just as much of a need as the shot-creation, passing and shot-making Banchero offers.
Holmgren gets the nod here in my view as the most talented player in the draft, as well as having the most potential to impact the Rockets' defense, which ranked last in the NBA last year, as no other team
gave up more points in the paint last season.
Holmgren's elite combination of mobility, length and timing, which helped him average 5.3 blocks per-40 minutes, should help alleviate Houston's defensive struggles immediately.
Holmgren also looks like an ideal fit next to franchise cornerstone Jalen Green, the No. 2 pick in the 2021 draft, with his ability to both space the floor (39% 3P%), and finish around the basket (74% 2P%). He's lethal busting out off the defensive glass, and holds significant potential as a shot-creator and passer himself, something we didn't see as much of at Gonzaga where he was asked to play more of a complementary role.
Holmgren is also a good fit alongside Houston's 2021 first-rounder Alperen Sengun, an extremely skilled offensive player who desperately needs to be paired with the right frontcourt partner to be most effective. He'd also have no issues playing alongside incumbent starter Christian Wood, the Rockets' leading scorer, who is very skilled in his own right.
Most important is the impact Holmgren could make on helping the Rockets establish a winning culture. He plays a selfless style of basketball while bringing the type of toughness and unselfishness the team sorely lacks.
- Givony
Player the Rockets should select if they fall out of the top three: Jaden Ivey or Keegan Murray
Despite having the NBA's worst record, the Rockets still have a 60% chance of falling to the No. 4 or 5 slot, which would be an incredibly disappointing outcome, but would still leave them in position to draft an impact player.
The prospect of pairing Ivey with Jalen Green in the backcourt is one the Rockets will have to closely study in this scenario. They'd form, arguably, the most explosive backcourt in the NBA with their transition-scoring prowess, ability to powerfully beat opponents off the dribble and highlight-reel finishing operating above the rim. They also duplicate each other somewhat with their streaky shooting, inconsistent decision-making and defensive lapses, but would have quite a bit of room to grow together long-term, as both are just 20 years old (born four days apart). While big men are the strength of this draft, there's no question that shot-creating guards are the engines behind the best teams in the NBA. For Houston, a chance to have two all-star caliber guards in the same backcourt has to be attractive, duplicative or not.
Murray is also someone the Rockets will surely look at. As the best player in college basketball last season, he presents perhaps the most straightforward path back to respectability as a plug-and-play, soon-to-be 22-year-old power forward with elite scoring instincts and a complete all-around game.
Murray averaged a scorching 29 points per-40 (best in this draft class) on outstanding efficiency (65% true shooting) without a real point guard alongside him and often without all that many plays being called for him. He's a versatile defender who spearheaded Iowa's press while also showing the ability to operate as a small-ball center, making him a strong fit alongside Houston's existing frontcourt options.