Is there a week-after service academy effect?

[FirstDownB]

I'm sure we have all heard about the supposed hangover from playing option oriented service academies. Been hearing ND fans complain about it for years.
The notion is that due to all the cut blocking teams like Army do in their run schemes, the opponent's front 7 is usually pretty banged up the following week. Which in turn, makes the following week's game prime for a letdown.

Of course the significance of this would be in terms of Wisconsin playing Army this past weekend.

So, I did what I do, which is trying to put some numbers to it...

Here are Army's opponents to date this season, with their performance the following week, including the spread of those games.

Army opponent	Result vs. Army	Following week opponent	Following week result	Beat spread?
Georgia St	L, 10-48	North Carolina	L, 17-59	No (+26)
Western Kentucky	L, 35-38	Indiana	L, 31-33	Yes (+9)
UConn	L, 21-52	Wyoming	L, 22-24	Yes (+30.5)
Miami (OH)	L, 10-23	Central Michigan	W, 28-17	Yes (-1)
Ball St	W, 28-16	Western Michigan	W, 45-20	Yes (+12.5)
Wisconsin	W, 14-20	Purdue	tbd	tbd (-3)

So, what do the numbers say? Army opponents so far this season are 4-1 against the spread the following week. And in a few cases absolutely crushed it.

Conclusions:
(1) The supposed wear and tear from facing the triple option doesn't seem to make any difference. If anything, the opponents overachieve the following week.
(2) Never trust any 'conventional wisdom' of Lou Holtz
(3) Maybe don't be so quick to bet the farm on Purdue this week

 

[Professor Emeritus]

If there is one thing I have learned in life, it is not to bet the farm on Purdue during any week in any sport.

 

[Purdue Grad in Texas]

I'm sure we have all heard about the supposed hangover from playing option oriented service academies. Been hearing ND fans complain about it for years.
The notion is that due to all the cut blocking teams like Army do in their run schemes, the opponent's front 7 is usually pretty banged up the following week. Which in turn, makes the following week's game prime for a letdown.

Of course the significance of this would be in terms of Wisconsin playing Army this past weekend.

So, I did what I do, which is trying to put some numbers to it...

Here are Army's opponents to date this season, with their performance the following week, including the spread of those games.

Army opponent	Result vs. Army	Following week opponent	Following week result	Beat spread?
Georgia St	L, 10-48	North Carolina	L, 17-59	No (+26)
Western Kentucky	L, 35-38	Indiana	L, 31-33	Yes (+9)
UConn	L, 21-52	Wyoming	L, 22-24	Yes (+30.5)
Miami (OH)	L, 10-23	Central Michigan	W, 28-17	Yes (-1)
Ball St	W, 28-16	Western Michigan	W, 45-20	Yes (+12.5)
Wisconsin	W, 14-20	Purdue	tbd	tbd (-3)

So, what do the numbers say? Army opponents so far this season are 4-1 against the spread the following week. And in a few cases absolutely crushed it.

Conclusions:
(1) The supposed wear and tear from facing the triple option doesn't seem to make any difference. If anything, the opponents overachieve the following week.
(2) Never trust any 'conventional wisdom' of Lou Holtz
(3) Maybe don't be so quick to bet the farm on Purdue this week

as to (2), just need to update your translator, FDB.