Interesting Debate - Developing Talent vs. Instant Result Transfers

[BoilerPride08]

Once the transfer portal became a thing after the rule change - I knew this topic would come up. Would you rather have a coach develop a bunch of talented freshmen, while initially struggling to win games vs. have a coach come into a new job, raid the transfer portal - and instantly win. This debate is being played out in live action as we speak as Minnesota is struggling this year as Whalen is focused on developing a bunch of highly touted freshmen while Green at Illinois has done a remarkable job turning around an Illinois program mainly due to bringing in a bunch of transfers.

I would say there's pros and cons to both. Pros of Transfers is that you can win instantly which is every coach (and fans) dream - cons - there can be little "program" development, even getting transfers means you'll get instant results, and it could prove to be disastrous if said transfers don't gel well with each other and egos get involved. The pros of developing freshmen - are program building - building a great culture as well as chemistry - focusing on HS recruits can lead you to getting good talent other programs who are too busy with the transfer portal can simply overlook - thus getting great talents that can instantly produce and the stay at your school for 3 more years. Cons - obviously it can be harder to win as you're going up against college-tested, experienced talent on other teams and players who are frustrated with losing might take the quick out and transfer to teams that are winning. You really have to find loyal players who believe in the program's direction.

Looking to next year - seems like KG is taking the development route given we will have 5 freshmen on the team. 7 if you count Potts and Stoddard who will have very limited playing time experience. So over half the team will be very inexperienced. But I'm sure we will add some transfers to the mix as well - will be interesting to see how this debate will develop and which one will prove to be the better recruiting philosophy.

Thoughts?

 

[MichaelRR]

First you are comparing three programs at different time frames in the coaches careers at their school. The last two years Gearlds has brought in two transfers a year, and 3-4 of them have been our starters this season. Green brought two players with her from Dayton to help her establish the new culture and teach her system, one of which had already proven she was able to play at this level while at Dayton. Green added one other transfer, so its a bit early to say she is relying on transfers more than KG, especially when even you expect KG to add more transfers thus slowing the development on any players on the roster that were recruited straight to Purdue.

UMinn has FIVE transfers on their current roster and Whalen is in her 4th year. Difference is that the transfers at UILL are vastly outproducing UMinn's or really ours. But all 3 teams have 4 transfers or more on them, with Green inheriting Bostic from the previous coach.

Next year could be a nose dive for Purdue, depending on if and who we might get from the portal and the unlikely event that any of Ellis, Terry, or Woltman come back for a 5th year.


For UMinn and lesser degree Purdue, the players leaving are as much of the story as the players coming in. Both programs are in the top 5-10% of programs having players enter the portal over the last 3 years. For UMinn that has depleted them to the point that they are going to struggle to make the WNIT this season. As was expected when they had the stampede out last spring. We seem a lock for the WNIT with still an outside chance with a couple of big upsets or a very deep BT tournament run of making the NCAA. But another year of us losing 4-5 players to the portal will tank our season next year as well as it did UMinn's this year.

 

[purduedavie]

First you are comparing three programs at different time frames in the coaches careers at their school. The last two years Gearlds has brought in two transfers a year, and 3-4 of them have been our starters this season. Green brought two players with her from Dayton to help her establish the new culture and teach her system, one of which had already proven she was able to play at this level while at Dayton. Green added one other transfer, so its a bit early to say she is relying on transfers more than KG, especially when even you expect KG to add more transfers thus slowing the development on any players on the roster that were recruited straight to Purdue.

UMinn has FIVE transfers on their current roster and Whalen is in her 4th year. Difference is that the transfers at UILL are vastly outproducing UMinn's or really ours. But all 3 teams have 4 transfers or more on them, with Green inheriting Bostic from the previous coach.

Next year could be a nose dive for Purdue, depending on if and who we might get from the portal and the unlikely event that any of Ellis, Terry, or Woltman come back for a 5th year.


For UMinn and lesser degree Purdue, the players leaving are as much of the story as the players coming in. Both programs are in the top 5-10% of programs having players enter the portal over the last 3 years. For UMinn that has depleted them to the point that they are going to struggle to make the WNIT this season. As was expected when they had the stampede out last spring. We seem a lock for the WNIT with still an outside chance with a couple of big upsets or a very deep BT tournament run of making the NCAA. But another year of us losing 4-5 players to the portal will tank our season next year as well as it did UMinn's this year.

I believe Ellis last year was assumed to be a 3 year Purdue player. Terry if she’s smart plays somewhere next year, not sure if it will be Purdue, Woltman is easily replaceable. Purdue has a pretty solid class coming in, however, they need to hit the portal and bring in a bonafide scorer.

 

[purduedavie]

Once the transfer portal became a thing after the rule change - I knew this topic would come up. Would you rather have a coach develop a bunch of talented freshmen, while initially struggling to win games vs. have a coach come into a new job, raid the transfer portal - and instantly win. This debate is being played out in live action as we speak as Minnesota is struggling this year as Whalen is focused on developing a bunch of highly touted freshmen while Green at Illinois has done a remarkable job turning around an Illinois program mainly due to bringing in a bunch of transfers.

I would say there's pros and cons to both. Pros of Transfers is that you can win instantly which is every coach (and fans) dream - cons - there can be little "program" development, even getting transfers means you'll get instant results, and it could prove to be disastrous if said transfers don't gel well with each other and egos get involved. The pros of developing freshmen - are program building - building a great culture as well as chemistry - focusing on HS recruits can lead you to getting good talent other programs who are too busy with the transfer portal can simply overlook - thus getting great talents that can instantly produce and the stay at your school for 3 more years. Cons - obviously it can be harder to win as you're going up against college-tested, experienced talent on other teams and players who are frustrated with losing might take the quick out and transfer to teams that are winning. You really have to find loyal players who believe in the program's direction.

Looking to next year - seems like KG is taking the development route given we will have 5 freshmen on the team. 7 if you count Potts and Stoddard who will have very limited playing time experience. So over half the team will be very inexperienced. But I'm sure we will add some transfers to the mix as well - will be interesting to see how this debate will develop and which one will prove to be the better recruiting philosophy.

Thoughts?

Pretty sure Ellis when she committed was assumed to be a 3 year player. Who knows what Terry does. Ellis/Smith/Layden/Harper are probably 4 of the starters going forward, if Terry returns plug her in with the others or maybe 1 comes off the bench. Also, Purdue without a doubt needs 1 transfer that can score and is hopefully athletic.

 

[MichaelRR]

I believe Ellis last year was assumed to be a 3 year Purdue player. Terry if she’s smart plays somewhere next year, not sure if it will be Purdue, Woltman is easily replaceable. Purdue has a pretty solid class coming in, however, they need to hit the portal and bring in a bonafide scorer.

It may have been "assumed" but with Ellis' role significantly diminished this year, I can easily see her transferring to a school where she can play in at least one NCAA tournament or just deciding it's time to go home to Oz. Terry wanted out last year and was stopped because she did not have her degree yet. If she has one, I don't see her staying. Woltman is hardly playing, if she doesn't need the extra semesters to graduate, why put yourself through the grueling practices and another season for 5-10 minutes a game playing time when you could go somewhere else and play or if sitting on the bench, at least enjoy some higher success?

 

[DocRon]

It may have been "assumed" but with Ellis' role significantly diminished this year, I can easily see her transferring to a school where she can play in at least one NCAA tournament or just deciding it's time to go home to Oz. Terry wanted out last year and was stopped because she did not have her degree yet. If she has one, I don't see her staying. Woltman is hardly playing, if she doesn't need the extra semesters to graduate, why put yourself through the grueling practices and another season for 5-10 minutes a game playing time when you could go somewhere else and play or if sitting on the bench, at least enjoy some higher success?

You say "Ellis' role (is) significantly diminished this year"? True, she no longer routinely starts but her minutes are still 24.1/game (compared to 29.0 in 2021-'22.)

Woltman is playing 12.5 mins/game which is 7.8 mins less than last year. But, even though she has improved her overall play, she clearly does not match up offensively to Harper (our #2 scorer at 11.6 ppg and averaging 0.468/points per min) vs Woltman's 3.7 ppg (averaging 0.299/points per min). She does do better in rebounds at 0.262/min vs Harper's 0.172/min. How many teams will welcome Woltman with those stats?
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[MichaelRR]

You say "Ellis' role (is) significantly diminished this year"? True, she no longer routinely starts but her minutes are still 24.1/game (compared to 29.0 in 2021-'22.)

Woltman is playing 12.5 mins/game which is 7.8 mins less than last year. But, even though she has improved her overall play, she clearly does not match up offensively to Harper (our #2 scorer at 11.6 ppg and averaging 0.468/points per min) vs Woltman's 3.7 ppg (averaging 0.299/points per min). She does do better in rebounds at 0.262/min vs Harper's 0.172/min. How many teams will welcome Woltman with those stats?
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I'd guess 80-100 that want a defensive presence on the blocks who also rebounds instead of a good scoring SF struggling with post defense. There are only a few true centers in the portal each year, Woltman would be heavily courted if she chose to put her name in IMHO.

 

[purduedavie]

It may have been "assumed" but with Ellis' role significantly diminished this year, I can easily see her transferring to a school where she can play in at least one NCAA tournament or just deciding it's time to go home to Oz. Terry wanted out last year and was stopped because she did not have her degree yet. If she has one, I don't see her staying. Woltman is hardly playing, if she doesn't need the extra semesters to graduate, why put yourself through the grueling practices and another season for 5-10 minutes a game playing time when you could go somewhere else and play or if sitting on the bench, at least enjoy some higher success?

If Terry goes so be it, she’s a nice facilitator but she has a limited offensive game, if in her 5th year she wants to leaves that’s on her, she plays a ton of minutes here, doubt she gets that elsewhere, Woltman has been here 4 years, she’s another one, she’s extremely limited offensively, let Stoddard or someone else soak up those minutes. Ellis is the one that I hope returns, she’s playing 25 minutes a night, it would probably average more but I believe she had some minor injury problems earlier. In order for the team to reach another level they need to get better players than all that are mentioned, team lacks athleticism, like I’ve stated, hoping for a 20 win season and hopefully a one of the last 4 in/#10 seed in the tournament. They can achieve that, we’ll see if they do, if they don’t life goes on, not going to lose sleep over it.

 

[MichaelRR]

If Terry goes so be it, she’s a nice facilitator but she has a limited offensive game, if in her 5th year she wants to leaves that’s on her, she plays a ton of minutes here, doubt she gets that elsewhere, Woltman has been here 4 years, she’s another one, she’s extremely limited offensively, let Stoddard or someone else soak up those minutes. Ellis is the one that I hope returns, she’s playing 25 minutes a night, it would probably average more but I believe she had some minor injury problems earlier. In order for the team to reach another level they need to get better players than all that are mentioned, team lacks athleticism, like I’ve stated, hoping for a 20 win season and hopefully a one of the last 4 in/#10 seed in the tournament. They can achieve that, we’ll see if they do, if they don’t life goes on, not going to lose sleep over it.

Understand Terry gets more assists as the next two highest players on the team combined by a significant margin, as many rebounds as the next two highest players on the team put together leads the team in steals, again by nearly as many as the next two players combined, hits a decent if not great shot percentage and is 6th on the team in scoring. She also has a 2.5 to 1 Assists to TO ratio. Without her last year and this, we probably lose half the games we have won, JMO. Whenever she leaves, it leaves a massive hole in the box score that no one player on the roster at this time will adequately be able to fill.

 

[purduedavie]

Understand Terry gets more assists as the next two highest players on the team combined by a significant margin, as many rebounds as the next two highest players on the team put together leads the team in steals, again by nearly as many as the next two players combined, hits a decent if not great shot percentage and is 6th on the team in scoring. She also has a last year and this, we probably lose half the games we have won, JMO. Whenever she leaves, it leaves a massive hole in the box score that no one player on the roster at this time will adequately be able to fill.

In 25 minutes against Penn State she had 2 points, 9 rebounds, 2 assists, 5 turnovers. I’m sorry, not buying the she’s a player that can’t be replaced. I hope she returns next season, however, if she doesn’t she’s replaceable.

 

[MichaelRR]

In 25 minutes against Penn State she had 2 points, 9 rebounds, 2 assists, 5 turnovers. I’m sorry, not buying the she’s a player that can’t be replaced. I hope she returns next season, however, if she doesn’t she’s replaceable.

2021-22 Purdue WBB Season Stats - Purdue Boilermakers

2021-22 Purdue WBB Season Stats

purduesports.com

2022-23 Purdue WBB Stats (PDF) - Purdue Boilermakers

2022-23 Purdue WBB Stats (PDF)

purduesports.com

Take any players worst game and you could make them look terrible..... LOL How about the game Petree took about 20 shots to get 14 points? Does that mean you don't think she is any good either?