Illinois knocks off MSU
- Thread starter Boilermaker
- Start date
Another crazy night in the BIG. I thought headed into the final week and BTT Michigan and MSU were 2 of the 3 teams, outside champion Purdue, that were playing the best right now (the other Minnesota). Both go down.
I'd say "wash". The Boilers swept the Spartans and beat the Illini in their lone regular season matchup. They're both bubble-teams (thought Illinois was dead-in-the-water but they've been on some win streaks lately).
There were barrels of whine spilling all over the court.
not sure how Sparty makes it in, would really enjoy seeing them all watch the tournament from Izzo's house; they can all cry together.
I think Michigan State is in right now. However, it's usually difficult (but it happens) for 14-loss teams to get an at-large bid, especially without a real "marquee" win. A win over Wisconsin and two wins over Minnesota really helping them....Izzo should send Pitino a fruit basket, perhaps.
They beat Maryland, get in. Obviously, if they win the BTT, they get in. If they would lose the next two, probably would miss the field.....but you never know, and there are not nearly as many good cases on the bubble this year. And don't look now, but the Illini are working their way to being a bid contender.
It is highly possible that NW, MSU & Mich....all end up tied for 5th @ 10-8 in the B1G, assuming an MSU & NW loss and MICH Win......with full season records of:
NW 21-10
MSU 18-13
MICH 20-11
Not sure they don't take them all....but if not, you would have to look @ B1G tourney and measurables for each.
Certainly if MSU loses to MD in their final game & then in tourney too, and ends up 18-14 then yes, they might be in trouble....and should be.
MN & MICH are playing real good now; MD, MSU & NW can be dangerous.....however, believe it or not Illinois somehow is finding a way to play together, win & playing hot here at the end too
On top of that, the BTT seeding is totally up in the air until Sunday. MSU and Maryland play eachother, Minnesota has 2 more games (Nebraska and @ Wisconsin) and NW plays Purdue. Way too many scenarios for me to keep track of.
But do you really think the Committee will leave the Sparties out with their AD the Chairman? Know he has to leave for the discussion but politics are politics!!!
To supplement my previous post....some of this would depend upon what happens in other conference tournaments. Michigan State sliding could put them in "Last Four IN" for example. But, assume if there is an upset automatic qualifier say in the Missouri Valley, West Coast, or Atlantic 10....that could take a spot from one of the last teams to get an at-large. We shall see....it's mostly speculation.
Illinois played pretty well and almost blew it, MSU is as mediocre as they seem. "Don't count out izzo" is getting old...hope they lose their first games of both tourneys (B1G and NCAA) and I wouldn't be surprised if they do.
MSU's AD is chairman of the selection committee.That's how they'll get in.
MSU also has a high SOS. It's hard to pick teams like MSU vs. the smaller school teams with fewer losses. MSU has a top 15-20 schedule in the nation.
Agree totally. MSU plays very few cupcakes, they have some big wins (and bad losses), but if they win their last and one in the tourney, I believe they're in over a smaller school, and would be without their AD being the Chair.
They didn't win though. They went 2-6 against the top 25 and both of those were at home. And they have some horrid losses. It's hard to see an argument for them unless they close out like gangbusters in the BTT.
Agreed....while they don't use Sagarin, MSU's SOS is #16, Purdue's is #51. Even IU who has the two best wins of the non-conference schedule is at #35.
MSU could trade in a couple of those games for cupcakes and bulk up their wins. And I think over the years, they have shown this to be valid because they have done well in the tournament. Obviously last year they were majorly upset, so hopefully they don't lay an egg again as people will start using that track record as reasons to not let in those kind of teams (although a lot of those MSU teams also did significantly better - and improved during - Big Ten play, which this one has not).
It totally depends who they go up against. Like I said in my post above, usually these types of teams that get in have at least shown improvement and finished strong, which MSU has not (as of yet). That's a big difference and goes to your point.
But if you're pitting them as a "blind resume" against a team who hasn't played ANY top 25 teams or went 0-1, not sure how you fault them for going 2-6.
It's a hard decision to make - and it does not play out consistently. I do think teams like MSU have a better chance of going deeper in the tournament, but teams like that have also lost early - and vice versa with the smaller conference teams, we've seen some make good runs, but probably not at the rate of the MSU types.
One only needs to look at the SWAC where there is only one team getting in on an automatic. Texas Southern...as an example...plays the first part of the schedule playing Baylor, LSU, Cincy, Arizona and much better programs without caring about wins...they make a lot of money being a punching bag...and when conference comes around, they usually make the dance. I'd rather do the MSU thing.
first 4 out right now, Vandy, GT, RI, K St
The bubble is pretty soft. You could make a case for them over Vandy and GT, not sure about RI and K St, so I guess there's a decent chance they get in. bleh. Praying for some automatic bid upsets.
RPI
RI - 43
MSU - 46
Vandy - 48
K St - 59
GT - 93
The bubble is pretty soft. You could make a case for them over Vandy and GT, not sure about RI and K St, so I guess there's a decent chance they get in. bleh. Praying for some automatic bid upsets.
RPI
RI - 43
MSU - 46
Vandy - 48
K St - 59
GT - 93
If MSU doesn't fall out of the top 50 of the RPI, the Illini win MAY push them in to the top 50 which gives Purdue another top 50 win against a possible tourney team along with a potential for another top 50 RPI win against Northwestern. That would make Purdue's RPI resume prior to the BTT (with a win against NU & Illinois getting in to the top 50):
RPI vs. Top 50: 8-4 (making 12 of Purdue's 31 games against the top 50)
I think the loss at home to Northeastern is what eventually kills their NCAA bid and they end up being a 1 or 2 in the NIT.
RPI vs. Top 50: 8-4 (making 12 of Purdue's 31 games against the top 50)
I think the loss at home to Northeastern is what eventually kills their NCAA bid and they end up being a 1 or 2 in the NIT.
Any other year in college basketball and maybe half the big ten teams that will make it wouldn't be in the tourney. I would say just about all of us are guilty of comparing what it takes to make the tourney in prior years to what it will take this year. The bubble is incredibly weak and lots of teams are going to get in that would never have made it in the past. 68 teams have to make it and with lots and lots of unimpressive major conference teams out there it weakens any chance the lower conference teams had of getting good wins. MSU will likely be in the tourney because there isn't anybody else to put ahead of them and MSU is propped up on their difficult non conference schedule.
the scary thing is michigan could end up finishing 8th in big ten... which would mean our first game in the tourney would be against them.. I absolutely do not want that
Illinois only moved up to 56 in rpi. Playing Rutgers will only hurt, so it's doubtful the Illinois gets into the top 50
Yes, Michigan needs to win against Nebraska por favor. I appreciate challenges, but that's just a bad match-up. Definitely still winnable, just depends which Michigan team shows up.
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