This is the second of two meetings this regular season as the Penn State Nittany Lions (14-7; 5-5) visit Mackey Arena to take on the top-ranked Purdue Boilermakers (21-1; 10-1). The two teams met a few weeks ago on January 8 @ the Palestra in Philadelphia with Purdue winning 76-63 behind a strong second half performance.
This game shapes up to be another conference tussle and will take another strong performance from the Boilers in order to prevail. Penn State is coming off a big win this past weekend at home over Michigan, and Purdue is also coming off a big home win against Michigan State.
Expected Starting Line-Ups:
Penn State - Caleb Dorsey, Michael Henn, Seth Lundy, Jalen Pickett, and Andrew Funk
Purdue - Caleb Furst, Zach Edey, Ethan Morton, Fletcher Loyer, and Braden Smith
On offense, Penn State's fortunes usually go how Jalen Pickett, Seth Lundy, and Andrew Funk play, especially with Jalen Pickett. He is an extremely difficult match-up for any team and especially for Purdue, and I expect Pickett will be first team all=conference. He had 26 the last game, although the Boilers did a much better job on him the second half.
Penn State averages 73.6 points (144th in NCAA) on 46.4 percent shooting (76th), including 38.5 percent from three-point range (17th). The Nittany Lions are 27th nationally in schedule-adjusted offensive efficiency - KenPom. When they are hitting from long range, they are particularly potent and a very dangerous team with Pickett able to also score in the paint. In the last game, Funk and Dread (who was in the starting line-up) went 2-9 from beyond the arc - they will likely shoot it a little bit better than that. Seth Lundy went 6-15 (2-5 from long range) from the field, and Purdue would benefit if he's not more efficient either.
Penn State gives up 66.6 points (96th in NCAA) on 41.8 percent shooting (89th), including 33.1 percent from behind the arc (160th). Purdue contributed 12 turnovers last time out, and they'll need to take better care of the ball this time around. Micah Shrewsberry's Nittany Lions continue to show improvement from last year and are looking to make the NCAA tournament field. They've made a couple of changes to the starting line-up since the last game. It disrupted Hunter Dickinson of Michigan last time out, and they may at least try some of the same against Zach Edey, who had 30 points and 13 rebounds last game but only went to the FT line for two attempts.
If Purdue can limit the turnovers and maintain an edge on the boards, it will be an uphill fight for Penn State. Purdue had an edge on the glass last time (36-25) but did give up 10 offensive boards. The Boilers will try to keep Pickett, Lundy and Funk under containment. Purdue has also received some really good help the last two games from the bench - more solid production, and I like the Boilers' chances.
Every game from here on out is a big one for Purdue - a trip to Bloomington looms this weekend, but the first order of business has to be tonight's game and a solid, consistent, focused effort. If they can play a full 40 minutes like the second half the last time out against Penn State, they can take another big step forward.
Can the Boilers keep things rolling this evening? We shall see in a few hours.
Boiler Up, my friends.
