[QUOTE="StickPurdue, post:
Compare lineups -
PJ vs Winston - I would call this a push. Winston wasn't overly impressive last year but he won't cost them the game. PJ is great but doesn't wow with stats.
Carsen vs Langford - Advantage Carsen. Langford is much bigger, but Carsen is faster. Drawing some early fouls on Langford would take him out of the game. Carsen has showed potential to light up the scoreboard. Langford was higher rated coming in, but hasn't lived up to it yet.
Mathias vs Bridges - Advantage Bridges. Bridges is bigger, faster, and likely the player of the year. If Mathias holds him to 20 or fewer while grabbing 10-15 himself, I would say Mathias would get the nod there.
Vince vs Jackson - Push. Jackson will abuse Vince on the boards, but can Jackson stay out of foul trouble and cover Vince? Vince should outscore Jackson and do all of the other things well.
Haas vs Ward - Advantage Haas. Ward should be in fouls trouble early. He gives up six inches, can't shoot, and gets in foul trouble often. .
What's your analysis of starting lineup of Haas, Haarms, Edwards, Mathias and Edwards vs Mich St.[/QUOTE]
If Haarms can't guard Jackson, this wouldn't work. If Haarms can guard Jackson, it neutralizes MSUs height and in theory their rebounding advantage.
The biggest matchup/concerns are who is going to guard Bridges and Jackson. Can Mathias guard Bridges? If so, you might prefer to keep Vince on Jackson. If Jackson starts crushing Vince, then you might see Haarms on him. If Haarms guess Jackson, you would see Vince shift over and Hurd Bridges, and can Vince contain Bridges?
Breakdown W Haarms:
5)Ward shouldn't beat Haas or Taylor so advantage Purdue. Ward sometimes struggles with foul trouble early and isn't a shooting threat. Schilling may be a better matchup for MSU - Advantage Purdue.
4)You move Haarms to the 4 to guard Jackson. Advantage in rebounding goes to Jackson, but I think Haarms win the scoring matchup here. Push, with the potential to be advantage Purdue based on depth. Haarms can shoot and pull Jackson away from the rim. This will help rebounding. Jackson is athletic for his height, but Haarms is a couple of inches taller and moves very well for his height. The question will be, can Haarms stay in the game for 25-30 minutes and stay out of foul trouble? I am not sure at this point. If Haarms gets into fouls trouble or doesn't have the stamina to stay in for long spurts, Vince gets moved back up. Purdue likely has a scoring advantage here. You also don't have much behind me Jackson, so if Jackson gets into foul trouble, MSU has to adjust and doesn't have the same depth Purdue does here.
3)Vince vs Bridges would be for all the tamales. Advantage MSU, but as close to a push as Purdue could hope for. Vince will make Bridges work for it on defense and possibly draw some fouls. The concern is that Bridges gets Vince in fouls trouble early because he is that good. The upside? If Vince does get in trouble, you bring up Mathias who is one of the best defenders in the country. Dakota can also light it up from 3. Not a bad backup plan.
2) Mathias vs Langford. Advantage Purdue. Mathias should shut down Langford while punishing him on the other end. Mathias is shooting ridiculously well when left open at 3. This could be where Purdue gets its biggest advantage. There isn't much depth behind Langford either.
1) Carsen vs Winston - Carsen should light Winston up. Likely on the offense it's Mathias acting more as a pg here. Carsen is just too explosive on offense and Winston isn't a big scoring threat (or hasn't shown to be yet anyway).
The game is at MSU, so I believe they will be the favorite, but Purdue has the talent to make a game of it. Purdue has a deep team that allows them to mix and match. On a neutral site, I would say based purely on roster it would be a slight advantage Purdue. If MSU can continue to gel and get more from their guards this year, it swings back to MSU's favor.