ESPN FPI Match-up Predictor: Will Update As The Season Progresses

[JohnnyDoeBoiler]

#2 Ohio State @ Purdue: OSU 84%
Purdue @ #24 MSU: MSU 70.8%
#19 Iowa @ Purdue: Iowa 60.4%
Purdue @ Minnesota: Purdue 55.9%
#23 Wisconsin @ Purdue: Wisconsin 58.2%
Purdue @ Indiana: Purdue 64.8%

I had these numbers posted previously but I can't find them. I'll update these as things change so we can monitor the ebb and flow a bit better via ESPN.

 

[nat100]

Pretty sure it does. That EMU loss might cost us a bowl.

 

[FirstDownB]

I wonder what these numbers looked like a few weeks ago. Based on the improvement over the past several weeks I'd bump each of these by 10%.

 

[JohnnyDoeBoiler]

I wonder what these numbers looked like a few weeks ago. Based on the improvement over the past several weeks I'd bump each of these by 10%.

I had them previously but now can't seem to locate them...frustrating because as you point out there has been a significant jump in the percentages. I know the IU game was in favor of Purdue slightly at 51% a few weeks ago and that has jumped nearly 10%.

 

[RDUBoiler]

Pretty sure it does. That EMU loss might cost us a bowl.

It possibly could. I do see a couple of pick-up opportunities in Iowa and Wisconsin that could get us to six wins (assuming we win the games where we're favored). I'm a little surprised that Iowa is a bigger favorite than Wisconsin, though.

 

[nat100]

It possibly could. I do see a couple of pick-up opportunities in Iowa and Wisconsin that could get us to six wins (assuming we win the games we're where favored). I'm a little surprised that Iowa is a bigger favorite than Wisconsin, though.

Wisconsin's QB is turrible.

 

[purduepat1969]

I think Purdue's best opportunity for an upset is Wisky. Hornibrook can't throw the forward pass and Purdue's defense is better at stopping the run. Their defense's weakness is the secondary. I see Brohm and Holt exploiting those matchups.

 

[njm8845]

Wisconsin's QB is turrible.

Yeah, I'm actually pretty confident against Iowa and Wisconsin.

Purdue has shown that it can effectively bottle up the run. (BC and ILL) I'm much more worried about teams that throw it all over the place (OSU and Mizzou)

Taylor is quite a bit better than any RB we've seen, but I just can't see them keeping up with Purdue's offense.

 

[SDBoiler1]

#2 Ohio State @ Purdue: OSU 84%
Purdue @ #24 MSU: MSU 70.8%
#19 Iowa @ Purdue: Iowa 60.4%
Purdue @ Minnesota: Purdue 55.9%
#23 Wisconsin @ Purdue: Wisconsin 58.2%
Purdue @ Indiana: Purdue 64.8%

I had these numbers posted previously but I can't find them. I'll update these as things change so we can monitor the ebb and flow a bit better via ESPN.

MSU beats PSU and now they’re world beaters? MSU, Wisky, and Iowa are all beatable, especially the two games at home. I don’t buy MSU at 71%, Iowa at 60%, or Wisky at 58%.

 

[rgarlitz]

I, too, sense this might be Purdue's year to knock off Wisconsin. Purdue was close last year in Madison against a better Wisconsin team. I will admit that with the exception of the last two minutes in their game against Wisconsin, Iowa has looked very solid this year.

I feel very confident that Purdue will get at least a split out of the Iowa and Wisconsin games. I am a little nervous going into Minnesota and Indiana. My gut tells me those teams might be better than we're giving them for, and both will see a home game against Purdue as pivotal to their bowl hopes.

 

[SDBoiler1]

I, too, sense this might be Purdue's year to knock off Wisconsin. Purdue was close last year in Madison against a better Wisconsin team. I will admit that with the exception of the last two minutes in their game against Wisconsin, Iowa has looked very solid this year.

I feel very confident that Purdue will get at least a split out of the Iowa and Wisconsin games. I am a little nervous going into Minnesota and Indiana. My gut tells me those teams might be better than we're giving them for, and both will see a home game against Purdue as pivotal to their bowl hopes.

If we can beat Nebraska at Nebraska and Iowa at Iowa last year, we will not lose to ‘Lil PJ and The Glorified HS Coach this year.

Minnesota got bitchslapped by Maryland and they are getting ground down with injuries. Indiana is reverting to form - very poor in conference play. IU is also very banged up now. After OSU, I think Purdue can win out. Not saying we will, but we can.

 

[BoilerFYF]

Pretty sure it does. That EMU loss might cost us a bowl.

I know man sigh

 

[SDBoiler1]

I know man sigh

It won’t. It’s a matter of how many wins above 6 we get. You’re contending Brohm can’t go 3-3 in the next 6 games? Really? You guys need to climb back from the ledge. Purdue’s going bowling again. It’s just a matter of where.

 

[BoilerFYF]

It won’t. It’s a matter of how many wins above 6 we get. You’re contending Brohm can’t go 3-3 in the next 6 games? Really? You guys need to climb back from the ledge. Purdue’s going bowling again. It’s just a matter of where.

It could. I do think we catch MSU or Wisconsin though. Both to me are not their typical selves. Iowa seems to be rounding into form.

 

[JohnnyDoeBoiler]

#2 Ohio State @ Purdue: OSU 84%
Purdue @ #24 MSU: MSU 70.8%
#19 Iowa @ Purdue: Iowa 60.4%
Purdue @ Minnesota: Purdue 55.9%
#23 Wisconsin @ Purdue: Wisconsin 58.2%
Purdue @ Indiana: Purdue 64.8%

I had these numbers posted previously but I can't find them. I'll update these as things change so we can monitor the ebb and flow a bit better via ESPN.

Update 10/21:

@ MSU: MSU 58.1%
Iowa: Iowa 51.5%
@ Minny: Purdue 70.3%
Whisky: Purdue 51.6%
@ Indiana: Purdue 72.7%

 

[SDBoiler1]

Update 10/21:

@ MSU: MSU 58.1%
Iowa: Iowa 51.5%
@ Minny: Purdue 70.3%
Whisky: Purdue 51.6%
@ Indiana: Purdue 72.7%

We have a decent chance to win out.

 

[rgarlitz]

Will be interesting to see MSU's mental state on Saturday.

 

[JohnnyDoeBoiler]

We have a decent chance to win out.

Play like they did last night minus a few boneheaded penalties, Purdue easily gets to 6 wins and likely can beat one of the three between MSU, Iowa, and Whisky...with a chance at getting to 8. That would mean going 8-1 over the last nine which I’m guessing would be a modern day record for any Purdue team.

 

[rgarlitz]

Play like they did last night minus a few boneheaded penalties, Purdue easily gets to 6 wins and likely can beat one of the three between MSU, Iowa, and Whisky...with a chance at getting to 8. That would mean going 8-1 over the last nine which I’m guessing would be a modern day record for any Purdue team.

The '98 team won their last 6 or 7 games after stsrting the season 2-4 or maybe 3-4.

 

[JohnnyDoeBoiler]

The '98 team won their last 6 or 7 games after stsrting the season 2-4 or maybe 3-4.

Won their final 5 regular season games plus the bowl game against Kansas State to get to 6. Then started the 1999 4-0. That would be a streak of 10 in a row spanning two seasons. Single season span of 8-1 would likely be the best 9 game stretch in program history.

 

[BoilerFYF]

We have a decent chance to win out.

We are gonna beat MSU by ten

 

[JohnnyDoeBoiler]

Update 10/21:

@ MSU: MSU 58.1%
Iowa: Iowa 51.5%
@ Minny: Purdue 70.3%
Whisky: Purdue 51.6%
@ Indiana: Purdue 72.7%

Update on 10/22/18:
@ MSU: MSU 57.1 % (1% decrease in MSU %)
Iowa: Iowa 51.5% (no change)
@ Minny: Purdue 73% (2.7% increase)
Whisky: Purdue 51.6% (no change)
@ Indiana: Purdue 72.7% (no change)

 

[FirstDownB]

Update on 10/22/18:
@ MSU: MSU 57.1 % (1% decrease in MSU %)
Iowa: Iowa 51.5% (no change)
@ Minny: Purdue 73% (2.7% increase)
Whisky: Purdue 51.6% (no change)
@ Indiana: Purdue 72.7% (no change)

I would add +5 to 10% in Purdue's favor for each of these games. The stats take into account the whole season. I see no resemblance of the current Purdue team to the one that took the field the first 3 weeks. Granted, a lot of teams improve, many have ups and downs, but with this tale of 2 seasons, I think it is appropriate to adjust for the massive improvement when considering these numbers. Also, when you factor in injuries, we are relatively healthy (vs. MSU who are injured at QB1 and WR1).

 

[JohnnyDoeBoiler]

Update on 10/22/18:
@ MSU: MSU 57.1 % (1% decrease in MSU %)
Iowa: Iowa 51.5% (no change)
@ Minny: Purdue 73% (2.7% increase)
Whisky: Purdue 51.6% (no change)
@ Indiana: Purdue 72.7% (no change)

Update prior to kickoff against Michigan State:

@ Michigan State: Michigan State 56.4%
Iowa: Iowa 51.1%
@ Minnesota: Purdue 72.5%
Wisconsin: Purdue 52.1%
@ Indiana: Purdue 74%

All have increased with the exception of Iowa dropping .4%.

 

[BoilerFYF]

Update prior to kickoff against Michigan State:

@ Michigan State: Michigan State 56.4%
Iowa: Iowa 51.1%
@ Minnesota: Purdue 72.5%
Wisconsin: Purdue 52.1%
@ Indiana: Purdue 74%

All have increased with the exception of Iowa dropping .4%.

Iowa increased as well

 

[JohnnyDoeBoiler]

Iowa increased as well

Meant it to be Iowa’s advantage dropped .4

 

[JohnnyDoeBoiler]

Update prior to kickoff against Michigan State:

@ Michigan State: Michigan State 56.4%
Iowa: Iowa 51.1%
@ Minnesota: Purdue 72.5%
Wisconsin: Purdue 52.1%
@ Indiana: Purdue 74%

All have increased with the exception of Iowa dropping .4%.

As of 11/5/18:
@ Minnesota: Purdue 77.5%
Wisconsin: Purdue 59.4%
@ Indiana: Purdue 75.3%

 

[PrintersRowBoiler]

As of 11/5/18:
@ Minnesota: Purdue 77.5%
Wisconsin: Purdue 59.4%
@ Indiana: Purdue 75.3%

Interesting, if you go by this we would have a 35% chance of winning out, a 45% of losing 1 game (so 80% chance of winning 7+ games), 18% chance of losing 2 of 3, and only a 2% chance of losing all 3.

 

[JohnnyDoeBoiler]

Interesting, if you go by this we would have a 35% chance of winning out, a 45% of losing 1 game (so 80% chance of winning 7+ Big 10 games), 18% chance of losing 2 of 3, and only a 2% chance of losing all 3.

I love that we have so many mathematically inclined posters here to do that work for those of us who, simply put, aren't. Thanks!