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Purdue football Data Driven: Purdue's win over Nebraska

Brian_GoldandBlack.com

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Jun 18, 2003
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A few statistical superlatives and such based off Pro Football Focus' analytics, to take for whatever they're worth.

Basically, PFF's grades weigh positive-impact plays vs. negative-impact plays, a subjective formula that is imperfect, but can be revealing when taken broadly. We try to relay this info generally as to not bog it down in explanation, for one thing.



PURDUE OFFENSE

Snap Counts
Quarterback
Jack Plummer 61
Aidan O'Connell 17

Receivers
David Bell 77
Milton Wright 56
Amad Anderson 54
Jackson Anthrop 30

Running Back
King Doerue 54
Zander Horvath 22
Alfred Armour 5 (fullback)

Tight End
Brycen Hopkins 72
Payne Durham 20

Offensive Line
LT Grant Hermanns 78
LG Mark Stickford 78
C Sam Garvin 78
RG Matt McCann 78
RT Will Bramel 66
RT Eric Miller 12
Context: Purdue had been mixing and matching for weeks, so the fact four guys played every snap suggests maybe some continuity re-emerging here.

Grades
• Purdue's lone offensive player with a positive grade was tight end Brycen Hopkins, due to his obvious impact in the passing game.

• The receivers didn't grade well, and the offensive line didn't grade well overall, but relative to its results this season in games prior, it did OK, I guess you'd say. A positive grade for Will Bramel in pass protection stands out, because that's been an area where he's struggled for the most part.

• I think that in a difficult season for Purdue's offensive line, Grant Hermanns has quietly played pretty well lately, and that's reflected in a very positive pass-protection grade and a decent overall grade. He did not grade positively in the run game, nor did center Sam Garvin or Bramel, but did OK overall in PFF's view. (Note: Purdue did pass way more than it ran, so volume affected these grades too, and I think given this season's results, Purdue would take its running-game output against Nebraska any day of the week.)

Seven of Nebraska's 10 pressures were attributed to the offensive line.

Passing Game
• Purdue completed just one pass of more than 20 yards in the air, but it was a big one, Aidan O'Connell's connection with Hopkins for 26 yards on the game-winning drive. Prior, Jack Plummer was 0-of-3 throwing it 20 or more yards in the air.

• On 16 snaps, O'Connell was 6-of-6 passing shorter than nine yards, and hit the one big play. His only incompletion was batted down. That play was the only blitz he one in which he was deemed to have faced pressure. Against blitzes, he was 1-for-1 for seven yards, but it should be noted the third-down end around that scored did beat a blitz, too.

• Before getting hurt, Plummer was 25-of-32 when you take a drop and three throwaways off his books, and graded well on those plays. His passing-chart sweet spot was the short middle, where he was 12-of-14 for 102 yards and a touchdown. Between the two quarterbacks, there were eight more passing attempts behind the line of scrimmage, as this offense has become more and more screen-dependent, wisely. Of course, the one incompletion behind the LOS was a disaster, the shovel pass that got picked off and nearly gift-wrapped Nebraska a touchdown (the defense held them to a field goal).

• Against blitzes, Plummer was 7-of-8 for 82 yards and a touchdown, and by far his best QB rating of any category.

• Purdue gained 187 yards after the catch.

• David Bell and Brycen Hopkins each were targeted nine times. Hopkins caught eight and Bell seven. Bell's catches were all underneath, and he averaged just 3.3 yards per reception.

• Amidst all this personnel chaos this season, Purdue has had to adapt and go in different directions to a certain extent. That in mind, its productivity throwing to the running backs lately has really matter, and it did big-time against Nebraska.

King Doerue caught all five passes that came his way for 31 yards and a touchdown, and Zander Horvath made a couple of huge plays in the fourth quarter, and finished with three catches on four targets for 49 yards. (The only target to a running back that wasn't completed was the ill-fated shovel pass.)

• Did Purdue take advantage of Nebraska'a tumult at safety? Maybe. On balls thrown at Dicaprio Bootle, who hasn't played safety in years but was pressed into action there, Purdue was 4-of-4 for 49 yards.

Hopkins bested linebacker WIll Honas for 4-for-4 receiving for 47 yards — it was 6-for-6 for Hopkins against Honas or fellow linebacker Mo Barry — and Milton Wright got him for 2-for-2 for 43 in PFF's view.

Running Game
• On QB scrambles, Plummer got 51 yards on five carries. There's no overstating the importance his mobility held in this game, prior to his injury, which occurred at the end of one such run.

• On three carries off left guard, King Doerue got 24 of his 71 yards. Give Mark Stickford and the tight ends some credit there, because at least on that big 17-yarder on an inside trap on the second-to-last scoring drive, Stickford did a nice job walling off his man to the inside and Brycen Hopkins came across the formation and got to his block. Didn't look back at the others, but that was a well-executed play on second-and-one.

• Doerue gained 44 yards after contact.

• Plummer was credited with 83 yards on nine rushing attempts — "scrambles" are a separate category — but keep in mind in official stats, sack yardage cuts into a QB's net. Forty of those yards came after contact.

PURDUE DEFENSE
Snap Counts
Defensive Line
DE George Karlaftis 75
Leo Derrick Barnes 66
DT Kai Higgins 56
DT Anthony Watts 50
DT Lawrence Johnson 25
DT Jack Sullivan 24
DT Branson Deen 15

Linebacker
Ben Holt 78
Semisi Fakasiieiki 67
Jaylan Alexander 14

Secondary
DB Jalen Graham 75
CB Cory Trice 66
CB Dedrick Mackey 51
S Brennan Thieneman 53
S Navon Mosley 51
CB Kenneth Major 39
DB Simeon Smiley 28
DB Cam Allen 25

Grades
• The defensive line didn't grade well, except for defensive tackle Kai Higgins, who made at least one big play against the run, and Derrick Barnes, who batted down the final fourth-down pass, to name one play. Those two players graded positively.

Positive grades also went to linebacker Ben Holt and DBs Cory Trice, Dedrick Mackey and Navon Mosley, and Jalen Graham graded very well against the pass.

Misc.
• Nebraska targeted Wan'Dale Robinson nine times in the passing game, mostly out of the backfield, often putting the onus on linebackers and even linemen to sometimes account for him. He caught seven passes but for just net 46 yards, no real big plays.

• Purdue missed 10 tackles, in PFF's view. That's not a terrible number.
 
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