Welcome to the third year, seventh edition of Covering the Tracks. As fans, we are about to experience arguably the greatest shift in the college football landscape from one season to the next. Last season we saw empty stadiums, shortened schedules, and a reduction in the usual traditions that make college football great. Since then, we have seen a landmark decision from the SCOTUS in the Alston case, NIL rights granted to student-athletes, and a return to normalcy in stadium attendance and tradition (This is not to mention the giant shift in perennial power and greed from the SEC with Texas and Oklahoma but that is for another day; I digress). Through all of this, we have continued to see the massive upswing of gambling popularity as it loses the traditional taboo tag it once had. Even today, the NFL, an extremely anti-gambling organization in the past, has partnered with multiple gaming companies as the official betting partners of the NFL. The growth of gambling and the impact it has on NIL opportunities for student-athletes remains to be seen. We have already seen Barstool Sports, now owned by Penn Gaming, endorse student-athletes, which could be seen as a gambling company endorsing student-athletes. How this will unfold going forward is a massive unknown. But one thing is for sure: sports gambling is here to stay, and it is growing at a rate faster than many believed.
For first-timers, Covering the Tracks is a weekly preview of the upcoming Purdue football game through the lens of the gambling world. Whether you are new to sports gambling or just enjoy reading everything about Purdue football, my hope is this weekly column will provide some sort of entertainment and/or information in anticipation of the Boilers upcoming game. The age-old saying is “Vegas always knows” so even if you are not a gambler, this weekly article hopefully provides you with some insight into how games can be more accurately predicted and previewed by using gambling analysis. All opinions listed throughout the article are my own, and I would advise that you take them with a grain of salt.
If anyone is looking to get into sports gambling, particularly in regards to Purdue, I cannot emphasize the importance of bankroll management and long term success. The biggest mistake new sports gamblers make is failing to properly manage your bankroll. This is a long term game. Do not expect to bat 1.000. Going 60% over an extended period of time is great! Always look for value. I personally take a contrarian approach in my gambling because I believe the public inflates the lines with bias and value is found on the other side. Simple, yet effective. However, there are many different schools of thought and strategies. I encourage you to test them out and find what works. For this article, I will be using my own analysis. Indiana offers multiple online books (DraftKings, PointsBet, FanDuel, etc.). I would encourage you to shop around at different books, take advantage of promotions, and find the best possible lines you can. Value betting is crucial. If you have specific questions, feel free to ask!
Covid made last year one of the oddest in college football history (Is anyone surprised IU had a good season while playing all their games in empty stadiums?). While I expect this year to be closer to normal, it would be naive to expect 100% normalcy. There very well could still be cases where players are held out of games last minute, or teams have to outright forfeit. Make sure you review the rules of whichever Sportsbook you use to see how they grade plays. Waiting till as close to gametime as possible is recommended for that reason. Hopefully this is not an issue with Purdue due to their stellar vaccination rates, but you never know. Here is to a full season of Purdue football being back, and Ross-Ade being open.
As always, for those unfamiliar with sports gambling terminology, there is a glossary at the end. For this week, we look at the 2021 Wisconsin Badgers.
Week 6 RECAP:
The Column finally gets back in the good graces as it goes 2-1 (with a nice sprinkle play at +420 on the Boilers ML!). Oklahoma State pulled off one hell of a comeback, while the Boilers dominated the Hawkeyes from start to finish. The unders continue to hit for the Boilers as an over is nowhere to be found, a testament to the Boilers defense.
2021 Season ATS Records:
Purdue: 3-3 ATS, Overs are 0-6.
Wisconsin: 2-4 ATS, Overs are 2-4. This is not Wisconsin’s first mention in this column, as we took them in back to back weeks for the “Plug your nose and hit place bet.” Wisconsin failed to cover in both collapsing against ND in the fourth, and losing to Michigan. Wisconsin also failed to cover last weekend, winning by only 6 against Army.
Current Betting breakdowns as of 9:00am on 10/21/21:
Current spread: Purdue +3 (Supposedly opened at 10.5, but dropped almost instantly to 3 and has been there all week).
1H Spread: Purdue +0.5, O/U 19.5
Over/Under: 40 (Opened 39.5)
Bets: 55% on Purdue, 42% on over
Money: 42% on Purdue, 4% on over
Wisconsin O/U: 21.5 (Over -104, Under -125)
Purdue O/U: 18.5 (Over -118, Under -110)
Jeff Brohm vs. Wisconsin: 0-3, 2-1 ATS.
2021 Futures:
I am editing the futures to just show what the futures were to begin the season. I feel like this will add a level of comparison analysis. Some books have begun to restrict odds on conference winners. I encourage any reader to compare with their book odds, if offered, to compare performance.
ALL ODDS FROM 9/1/201:
To win the Big Ten Title Game: Purdue is 60/1.
To win the Big Ten West Division: Purdue is 25/1.
To win the National Championship: Purdue is 200/1.
Purdue’s season win total is set at O/U 5 wins. The Over is slightly favored at -125, while under is +105. What a win from the Boilers over Iowa to really give this bet some hope. With a loss, Purdue likely would have absolutely needed to beat IU and NW, while also stealing a game from MSU/OSU/Wisconsin/Nebraska. Now, Purdue can push just by winning one of those games against IU and NW. Purdue is in a great spot here.
GK first overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft: 60/1 to start, some books now at 30/1.
Trend Analysis for Wisconsin:
· Purdue under Brohm is 7-3 ATS as a home underdog. The “Fade Brohm as a favorite and back as a dog” narrative has now cashed three games in a row with Purdue winning outright against Iowa. This is the first time Purdue will be a home underdog this year.
· Purdue is 11-10 ATS after a win under Brohm. Purdue is 1-2 ATS this year after a win as they covered against UConn after a win, but failed to cover against Notre Dame and Minnesota.
· Purdue is now 2-7 ATS in its last 9 conference games, with both those ATS wins coming against Iowa.
· Purdue has lost fourteen straight games to Wisconsin. The last Boilermaker win came in October of 2003. We will not be discussing 2004. SLIDE KYLE, C’MON MAN.
· After a win, the over is 7-14 in Purdue games under Brohm. With a Purdue game failing to go over this season, overs are 0-3 after a win this season.
· When Purdue is a home underdog, the over is 4-5-1. Purdue has not been a home underdog yet this season. Last year, the over was 0-2 in games where Purdue was a home underdog.
· Per Chris Fallica, Wisconsin has now been the favorite in fifteen straight games. Wisconsin is 5-9 ATS with seven losses outright.
· As an away favorite, Wisconsin is 16-6 under Paul Chryst. The Badgers cover in this spot by an average of 5.3 points, but win the game on average by 16.0 points.
· Wisconsin is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games at Ross Ade Stadium.
· After a Wisconsin win under Chryst, Wisconsin is 26-26-1 ATS.
· Under Coach Chryst, overs are 11-11 when Wisconsin is an away favorite. In Wisconsin’s only away game this year, Wisconsin blanked the Illini 24-0.
· The total has gone under in four of Wisconsin's six games this season.
· Wisconsin are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against a conference opponent.
Miscellaneous Factors:
· Rocky Lombardi. In his career at Michigan State, Rocky Lombardi was 159 for 332 (47.9%) for 1902 yards, 11 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. He then transferred to Northern Illinois. On October 27, 2018 against Purdue, Rocky went 26 of 46 for 318 yards and two touchdowns. This came on the heels of a 49-20 DRUMMING of Ohio State by the Boilers on national tv. This is all to simply say: let down spot. Purdue laid an egg in Nick Holt’s worst defensively called game of his Purdue career in East Lansing on that cold October Saturday. David Blough was an interception machine while true freshman Rocky Lombardi looked like an all B1G performer. The general consensus thought that was the win that would turn Purdue football around. It did not, clearly. Purdue now has a second chance to build off a program defining win. Do not let Graham Mertz be a Rocky Lombardi.
· Badger in the Room. It has been eighteen years since Purdue has beaten Wisconsin. That is a streak of fourteen straight games. Wisconsin has, without a doubt, owned the Purdue football program over the years. If Brohm and Purdue want to take the next step, this is how you do it. A win over Wisconsin can set the Boilers up for a real shot at the Big Ten West. To do that, they need to get over the Badger in the Room and beat Wisconsin. Now seems like a pretty good opportunity.
· Drought CANCELED. As one streak is still going above, the Boilers ended the longest streak in Power Five football entering the AP Poll at #25 in the country. This is the first time since 2007 the Boilers will have a number next to the name. If anyone remembers 2007, it was widely acclaimed as one of the weirdest seasons in college football history. Purdue has real momentum, have to build on it.
·Heartland Trophy. Wisconsin has a massive game next week as the Badgers take on the Hawkeyes. While normally this would likely be a look ahead spot for Wisconsin, unfortunately, Purdue’s ranking likely negates an overlook spot from the Badgers.
· If you have three quarterbacks you do have one. The Boilers gameplan against Iowa is a fascinating case study of QB play. The old bugaboo has always been, if you pull a QB you fail to let him get in a rhythm. Well, AOC seemed to look ok. The three-headed attack of AOC, Burton, and Plummer looked more than formidable producing (and without the dumb rule Brian has talked about they would have produced more). This presents a tough gameplan challenge for opposing teams, while expanding the playbook for Brohm. Redzone success is key and will be curious if Iowa success was a bluff or the real deal.
· Weather once looks good. I do not see rain as of Thursday at noon. Rain comes in, per usual, lean Wisconsin.
Gambling Analysis:
Numbers: Numbers are not nearly as predictive this week as the game is not being heavily bet early. There does seem to be a sharp buy and a sharp advantage. 55% of the bets are on Purdue but 58% of money is on Wisconsin, creating a 13% sharp buy on Wisconsin. There does not seem to be a whole lot of money bet on the total. The number percentages are volatile which suggest to me that one big bet can swing. However, as thing stands, so much money is on the under that the over is the contrarian play. EDGE: Wisconsin, Over.
Trends: Brohm is an underdog, bet Brohm. This took a bumpy start earlier in the year but has really been consistent the last couple weeks. The concern here is a ranked team is at home as an underdog against an unranked team. In my experience, that is never a positive. We are also seeing this with OSU and Iowa State. The trends suggest Brohm as an underdog, but the trends also tell us Wisconsin owns Purdue. Additionally, Wisconsin has really struggled lately with the spread. In terms of the total, the trends are screaming to take the under. Purdue’s defense has been phenomenal and an over has not hit yet. The Wisconsin defense is very impressive as well, and the trends show that teams struggle to score here. EDGE: Purdue, Under.
Situation: This sucks for Purdue. Purdue is still buzzing after a program defining win against the number two team in the nation. Purdue players took home a whole slew of awards this week and were the talk of the college football world. David Bell asserted his dominance over Iowa, as well as solidifying his NFL draft stock. Wisconsin, on the other hand, has struggled immensely against Michigan and Notre Dame, barely beat Army, and the only impressive win was Illinois, the worst team in the B1G West (with the exception of maybe NW). Unders, unders, unders. Everyone is seeing this game as a clear under spot. Situationally, value is created with the over. EDGE: Wisconsin and the Over.
Total Analysis: An unstoppable force meets an immovable object. That is both of these two teams’ ATS records. Both have been downright awful in Big Ten play for the last year. Purdue has not covered against a Big Ten team besides Iowa since 2019, and Wisconsin has done so one time. It would be fitting for Wisconsin to win by three, since it would grade as a push. Sharps are on Wisconsin which is concerning for a Purdue fan. However, I never want to be favored against a Jeff Brohm coached football team. There are multiple angles to play. Graham Mertz and Wisconsin have been awful offensively. Purdue also has their offensive struggles. Purdue certainly played Notre Dame better than Wisconsin did overall, but if you take away the fourth quarter, Wisconsin looked better. I cannot get the MSU game from 2018 out of my head. The saving grace is this defense looks legit. I do not foresee the let down spot that would be so easy. My concern, as it has been all year, comes on the offensive side of the ball. Purdue will need to continue the redzone success and utilize the brilliance that is David Bell. Ultimately, Purdue has to put an end to the streak. Fourteen straight losses is absolutely bananas. Especially in the world of college football where upsets happen frequently, fourteen is an insanely large number. If you’re trusting sharps, back Wisconsin. If you’re backing trends, Brohm is your guy. If Purdue cannot beat this Wisconsin team, when can they?
Prediction: 21-18 Badgers. I want to be wrong. This is a MASSIVE game for Jeff Brohm. Beating Iowa is great, but now what? Wisconsin has owned this program, you have to end that. If Purdue wants to be looked at as a Big Ten West contender, this game is a must win.
Official Plays 4-8 (But shout out to the Purdue +420 ML): Some spreads are showing Boilers +3.5, some are showing Wisconsin -2.5. I would advise buying the half point whichever way you want to play this. For purposes of the column, I will be taking Wisconsin -3, and Under 40. The situational spot and the sharp buy is too much for me to take Purdue. I hope I am wrong and the offense wows.
Bonus. Plug Your Nose and Hit “Place Bet” of the Week (1-4): Iowa State -7. I have been burned by Iowa State in a similar spot before. But, how on earth is Iowa State a SEVEN point favorite over an undefeated Oklahoma State team? OSU is coming off a big win against Texas, but the disrespect here is real. Gundy has been great as a dog. However, a spread this large tells me Vegas knows something, so I would like to hop on their side.
Glossary:
The spread: Arguably the most used term in all of gambling, the spread refers to the handicapped line set by the sportsbook. For those new to gambling, think of the spread as a prediction by the sports book, given all the circumstances, of what the difference between the two teams are. The favorite will be listed with a negative spread, while the underdog will have a positive spread. The spread is put in place as a handicap to make the underdog and favorite more equal. For example, Purdue is currently +3 against Wisconsin meaning a sportsbook would expect Purdue to win by 34.
Odds and How to read them: The ability to read odds presents a gambler the insight into how a sportsbook or “Vegas” views a particular bet. The most common types of odds on sports bet will range from -105 to -115. -115 odds means that to win $10 dollars, a person would need to bet $11.50. Conversely, if the odds are positive, +115, then a bettor who bets $10 would win $11.50. To calculate ML odds for negative odds, take negative Moneyline odds / (Moneylines odds + 100) * 100 = Implied probability. So, if the odds are -115 then 115/(115+100)*100 = 53.5%.
Betting against the spread: Betting against the spread (“ATS”) means you are taking Purdue +3 or Wisconsin -3. To cover the spread betting on Purdue, Purdue would need to lose by less than 3 or win. If one bets on the Wisconsin spread, the Badgers would have to win by more than 3.
Cover: This means a team won ATS. If Wisconsin beats Purdue by 2, Wisconsin has won the game, but Purdue has covered.
Money line: Money line (“ML”) is the odds given on a particular team just to win outright. Payouts can be significantly more or less than betting the spread. For example, betting on a big favorite to win on ML will not yield a very high return. Conversely, betting on a big underdog to win could sometimes pay out double or even triple your original bet. It all depends on the odds.
Over/Under: Over/unders are a type of bet that refer to how many total points will be scored in a game. For example, if the sportsbook sets an over/under of 49, bettors will bet under if they believe less than 49 points will be scored and vice-versa.
Sharp Bettor: A sharp bettor is a bettor who has shown the ability to turn a profit over the long run. These are generally gamblers that have shown a history of success. Sharp bettors are very useful in identifying value in a particular bet.
Juice: Juice may be the most confusing aspect for new gamblers or those unfamiliar with gambling. In simple terms, juice is the percentage sportsbooks take on a given wager. Sportsbook use juice to make their profit. To do this, odds for a bet with a sports book are normally -115 or -110 for both sides of the spread. This means that to win ten dollars, you would need to be $11.50. That means either way, the sportsbook is gaining a profit because each side is losing $1.50 per bet. This is the juice.
If there is a definition not listed that you think would be helpful, please let me know.
For first-timers, Covering the Tracks is a weekly preview of the upcoming Purdue football game through the lens of the gambling world. Whether you are new to sports gambling or just enjoy reading everything about Purdue football, my hope is this weekly column will provide some sort of entertainment and/or information in anticipation of the Boilers upcoming game. The age-old saying is “Vegas always knows” so even if you are not a gambler, this weekly article hopefully provides you with some insight into how games can be more accurately predicted and previewed by using gambling analysis. All opinions listed throughout the article are my own, and I would advise that you take them with a grain of salt.
If anyone is looking to get into sports gambling, particularly in regards to Purdue, I cannot emphasize the importance of bankroll management and long term success. The biggest mistake new sports gamblers make is failing to properly manage your bankroll. This is a long term game. Do not expect to bat 1.000. Going 60% over an extended period of time is great! Always look for value. I personally take a contrarian approach in my gambling because I believe the public inflates the lines with bias and value is found on the other side. Simple, yet effective. However, there are many different schools of thought and strategies. I encourage you to test them out and find what works. For this article, I will be using my own analysis. Indiana offers multiple online books (DraftKings, PointsBet, FanDuel, etc.). I would encourage you to shop around at different books, take advantage of promotions, and find the best possible lines you can. Value betting is crucial. If you have specific questions, feel free to ask!
Covid made last year one of the oddest in college football history (Is anyone surprised IU had a good season while playing all their games in empty stadiums?). While I expect this year to be closer to normal, it would be naive to expect 100% normalcy. There very well could still be cases where players are held out of games last minute, or teams have to outright forfeit. Make sure you review the rules of whichever Sportsbook you use to see how they grade plays. Waiting till as close to gametime as possible is recommended for that reason. Hopefully this is not an issue with Purdue due to their stellar vaccination rates, but you never know. Here is to a full season of Purdue football being back, and Ross-Ade being open.
As always, for those unfamiliar with sports gambling terminology, there is a glossary at the end. For this week, we look at the 2021 Wisconsin Badgers.
Week 6 RECAP:
The Column finally gets back in the good graces as it goes 2-1 (with a nice sprinkle play at +420 on the Boilers ML!). Oklahoma State pulled off one hell of a comeback, while the Boilers dominated the Hawkeyes from start to finish. The unders continue to hit for the Boilers as an over is nowhere to be found, a testament to the Boilers defense.
2021 Season ATS Records:
Purdue: 3-3 ATS, Overs are 0-6.
Wisconsin: 2-4 ATS, Overs are 2-4. This is not Wisconsin’s first mention in this column, as we took them in back to back weeks for the “Plug your nose and hit place bet.” Wisconsin failed to cover in both collapsing against ND in the fourth, and losing to Michigan. Wisconsin also failed to cover last weekend, winning by only 6 against Army.
Current Betting breakdowns as of 9:00am on 10/21/21:
Current spread: Purdue +3 (Supposedly opened at 10.5, but dropped almost instantly to 3 and has been there all week).
1H Spread: Purdue +0.5, O/U 19.5
Over/Under: 40 (Opened 39.5)
Bets: 55% on Purdue, 42% on over
Money: 42% on Purdue, 4% on over
Wisconsin O/U: 21.5 (Over -104, Under -125)
Purdue O/U: 18.5 (Over -118, Under -110)
Jeff Brohm vs. Wisconsin: 0-3, 2-1 ATS.
2021 Futures:
I am editing the futures to just show what the futures were to begin the season. I feel like this will add a level of comparison analysis. Some books have begun to restrict odds on conference winners. I encourage any reader to compare with their book odds, if offered, to compare performance.
ALL ODDS FROM 9/1/201:
To win the Big Ten Title Game: Purdue is 60/1.
To win the Big Ten West Division: Purdue is 25/1.
To win the National Championship: Purdue is 200/1.
Purdue’s season win total is set at O/U 5 wins. The Over is slightly favored at -125, while under is +105. What a win from the Boilers over Iowa to really give this bet some hope. With a loss, Purdue likely would have absolutely needed to beat IU and NW, while also stealing a game from MSU/OSU/Wisconsin/Nebraska. Now, Purdue can push just by winning one of those games against IU and NW. Purdue is in a great spot here.
GK first overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft: 60/1 to start, some books now at 30/1.
Trend Analysis for Wisconsin:
· Purdue under Brohm is 7-3 ATS as a home underdog. The “Fade Brohm as a favorite and back as a dog” narrative has now cashed three games in a row with Purdue winning outright against Iowa. This is the first time Purdue will be a home underdog this year.
· Purdue is 11-10 ATS after a win under Brohm. Purdue is 1-2 ATS this year after a win as they covered against UConn after a win, but failed to cover against Notre Dame and Minnesota.
· Purdue is now 2-7 ATS in its last 9 conference games, with both those ATS wins coming against Iowa.
· Purdue has lost fourteen straight games to Wisconsin. The last Boilermaker win came in October of 2003. We will not be discussing 2004. SLIDE KYLE, C’MON MAN.
· After a win, the over is 7-14 in Purdue games under Brohm. With a Purdue game failing to go over this season, overs are 0-3 after a win this season.
· When Purdue is a home underdog, the over is 4-5-1. Purdue has not been a home underdog yet this season. Last year, the over was 0-2 in games where Purdue was a home underdog.
· Per Chris Fallica, Wisconsin has now been the favorite in fifteen straight games. Wisconsin is 5-9 ATS with seven losses outright.
· As an away favorite, Wisconsin is 16-6 under Paul Chryst. The Badgers cover in this spot by an average of 5.3 points, but win the game on average by 16.0 points.
· Wisconsin is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games at Ross Ade Stadium.
· After a Wisconsin win under Chryst, Wisconsin is 26-26-1 ATS.
· Under Coach Chryst, overs are 11-11 when Wisconsin is an away favorite. In Wisconsin’s only away game this year, Wisconsin blanked the Illini 24-0.
· The total has gone under in four of Wisconsin's six games this season.
· Wisconsin are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against a conference opponent.
Miscellaneous Factors:
· Rocky Lombardi. In his career at Michigan State, Rocky Lombardi was 159 for 332 (47.9%) for 1902 yards, 11 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. He then transferred to Northern Illinois. On October 27, 2018 against Purdue, Rocky went 26 of 46 for 318 yards and two touchdowns. This came on the heels of a 49-20 DRUMMING of Ohio State by the Boilers on national tv. This is all to simply say: let down spot. Purdue laid an egg in Nick Holt’s worst defensively called game of his Purdue career in East Lansing on that cold October Saturday. David Blough was an interception machine while true freshman Rocky Lombardi looked like an all B1G performer. The general consensus thought that was the win that would turn Purdue football around. It did not, clearly. Purdue now has a second chance to build off a program defining win. Do not let Graham Mertz be a Rocky Lombardi.
· Badger in the Room. It has been eighteen years since Purdue has beaten Wisconsin. That is a streak of fourteen straight games. Wisconsin has, without a doubt, owned the Purdue football program over the years. If Brohm and Purdue want to take the next step, this is how you do it. A win over Wisconsin can set the Boilers up for a real shot at the Big Ten West. To do that, they need to get over the Badger in the Room and beat Wisconsin. Now seems like a pretty good opportunity.
· Drought CANCELED. As one streak is still going above, the Boilers ended the longest streak in Power Five football entering the AP Poll at #25 in the country. This is the first time since 2007 the Boilers will have a number next to the name. If anyone remembers 2007, it was widely acclaimed as one of the weirdest seasons in college football history. Purdue has real momentum, have to build on it.
·Heartland Trophy. Wisconsin has a massive game next week as the Badgers take on the Hawkeyes. While normally this would likely be a look ahead spot for Wisconsin, unfortunately, Purdue’s ranking likely negates an overlook spot from the Badgers.
· If you have three quarterbacks you do have one. The Boilers gameplan against Iowa is a fascinating case study of QB play. The old bugaboo has always been, if you pull a QB you fail to let him get in a rhythm. Well, AOC seemed to look ok. The three-headed attack of AOC, Burton, and Plummer looked more than formidable producing (and without the dumb rule Brian has talked about they would have produced more). This presents a tough gameplan challenge for opposing teams, while expanding the playbook for Brohm. Redzone success is key and will be curious if Iowa success was a bluff or the real deal.
· Weather once looks good. I do not see rain as of Thursday at noon. Rain comes in, per usual, lean Wisconsin.
Gambling Analysis:
Numbers: Numbers are not nearly as predictive this week as the game is not being heavily bet early. There does seem to be a sharp buy and a sharp advantage. 55% of the bets are on Purdue but 58% of money is on Wisconsin, creating a 13% sharp buy on Wisconsin. There does not seem to be a whole lot of money bet on the total. The number percentages are volatile which suggest to me that one big bet can swing. However, as thing stands, so much money is on the under that the over is the contrarian play. EDGE: Wisconsin, Over.
Trends: Brohm is an underdog, bet Brohm. This took a bumpy start earlier in the year but has really been consistent the last couple weeks. The concern here is a ranked team is at home as an underdog against an unranked team. In my experience, that is never a positive. We are also seeing this with OSU and Iowa State. The trends suggest Brohm as an underdog, but the trends also tell us Wisconsin owns Purdue. Additionally, Wisconsin has really struggled lately with the spread. In terms of the total, the trends are screaming to take the under. Purdue’s defense has been phenomenal and an over has not hit yet. The Wisconsin defense is very impressive as well, and the trends show that teams struggle to score here. EDGE: Purdue, Under.
Situation: This sucks for Purdue. Purdue is still buzzing after a program defining win against the number two team in the nation. Purdue players took home a whole slew of awards this week and were the talk of the college football world. David Bell asserted his dominance over Iowa, as well as solidifying his NFL draft stock. Wisconsin, on the other hand, has struggled immensely against Michigan and Notre Dame, barely beat Army, and the only impressive win was Illinois, the worst team in the B1G West (with the exception of maybe NW). Unders, unders, unders. Everyone is seeing this game as a clear under spot. Situationally, value is created with the over. EDGE: Wisconsin and the Over.
Total Analysis: An unstoppable force meets an immovable object. That is both of these two teams’ ATS records. Both have been downright awful in Big Ten play for the last year. Purdue has not covered against a Big Ten team besides Iowa since 2019, and Wisconsin has done so one time. It would be fitting for Wisconsin to win by three, since it would grade as a push. Sharps are on Wisconsin which is concerning for a Purdue fan. However, I never want to be favored against a Jeff Brohm coached football team. There are multiple angles to play. Graham Mertz and Wisconsin have been awful offensively. Purdue also has their offensive struggles. Purdue certainly played Notre Dame better than Wisconsin did overall, but if you take away the fourth quarter, Wisconsin looked better. I cannot get the MSU game from 2018 out of my head. The saving grace is this defense looks legit. I do not foresee the let down spot that would be so easy. My concern, as it has been all year, comes on the offensive side of the ball. Purdue will need to continue the redzone success and utilize the brilliance that is David Bell. Ultimately, Purdue has to put an end to the streak. Fourteen straight losses is absolutely bananas. Especially in the world of college football where upsets happen frequently, fourteen is an insanely large number. If you’re trusting sharps, back Wisconsin. If you’re backing trends, Brohm is your guy. If Purdue cannot beat this Wisconsin team, when can they?
Prediction: 21-18 Badgers. I want to be wrong. This is a MASSIVE game for Jeff Brohm. Beating Iowa is great, but now what? Wisconsin has owned this program, you have to end that. If Purdue wants to be looked at as a Big Ten West contender, this game is a must win.
Official Plays 4-8 (But shout out to the Purdue +420 ML): Some spreads are showing Boilers +3.5, some are showing Wisconsin -2.5. I would advise buying the half point whichever way you want to play this. For purposes of the column, I will be taking Wisconsin -3, and Under 40. The situational spot and the sharp buy is too much for me to take Purdue. I hope I am wrong and the offense wows.
Bonus. Plug Your Nose and Hit “Place Bet” of the Week (1-4): Iowa State -7. I have been burned by Iowa State in a similar spot before. But, how on earth is Iowa State a SEVEN point favorite over an undefeated Oklahoma State team? OSU is coming off a big win against Texas, but the disrespect here is real. Gundy has been great as a dog. However, a spread this large tells me Vegas knows something, so I would like to hop on their side.
Glossary:
The spread: Arguably the most used term in all of gambling, the spread refers to the handicapped line set by the sportsbook. For those new to gambling, think of the spread as a prediction by the sports book, given all the circumstances, of what the difference between the two teams are. The favorite will be listed with a negative spread, while the underdog will have a positive spread. The spread is put in place as a handicap to make the underdog and favorite more equal. For example, Purdue is currently +3 against Wisconsin meaning a sportsbook would expect Purdue to win by 34.
Odds and How to read them: The ability to read odds presents a gambler the insight into how a sportsbook or “Vegas” views a particular bet. The most common types of odds on sports bet will range from -105 to -115. -115 odds means that to win $10 dollars, a person would need to bet $11.50. Conversely, if the odds are positive, +115, then a bettor who bets $10 would win $11.50. To calculate ML odds for negative odds, take negative Moneyline odds / (Moneylines odds + 100) * 100 = Implied probability. So, if the odds are -115 then 115/(115+100)*100 = 53.5%.
Betting against the spread: Betting against the spread (“ATS”) means you are taking Purdue +3 or Wisconsin -3. To cover the spread betting on Purdue, Purdue would need to lose by less than 3 or win. If one bets on the Wisconsin spread, the Badgers would have to win by more than 3.
Cover: This means a team won ATS. If Wisconsin beats Purdue by 2, Wisconsin has won the game, but Purdue has covered.
Money line: Money line (“ML”) is the odds given on a particular team just to win outright. Payouts can be significantly more or less than betting the spread. For example, betting on a big favorite to win on ML will not yield a very high return. Conversely, betting on a big underdog to win could sometimes pay out double or even triple your original bet. It all depends on the odds.
Over/Under: Over/unders are a type of bet that refer to how many total points will be scored in a game. For example, if the sportsbook sets an over/under of 49, bettors will bet under if they believe less than 49 points will be scored and vice-versa.
Sharp Bettor: A sharp bettor is a bettor who has shown the ability to turn a profit over the long run. These are generally gamblers that have shown a history of success. Sharp bettors are very useful in identifying value in a particular bet.
Juice: Juice may be the most confusing aspect for new gamblers or those unfamiliar with gambling. In simple terms, juice is the percentage sportsbooks take on a given wager. Sportsbook use juice to make their profit. To do this, odds for a bet with a sports book are normally -115 or -110 for both sides of the spread. This means that to win ten dollars, you would need to be $11.50. That means either way, the sportsbook is gaining a profit because each side is losing $1.50 per bet. This is the juice.
If there is a definition not listed that you think would be helpful, please let me know.
