Welcome to the third year, tenth edition of Covering the Tracks. As fans, we are about to experience arguably the greatest shift in the college football landscape from one season to the next. Last season we saw empty stadiums, shortened schedules, and a reduction in the usual traditions that make college football great. Since then, we have seen a landmark decision from the SCOTUS in the Alston case, NIL rights granted to student-athletes, and a return to normalcy in stadium attendance and tradition (This is not to mention the giant shift in perennial power and greed from the SEC with Texas and Oklahoma but that is for another day; I digress). Through all of this, we have continued to see the massive upswing of gambling popularity as it loses the traditional taboo tag it once had. Even today, the NFL, an extremely anti-gambling organization in the past, has partnered with multiple gaming companies as the official betting partners of the NFL. The growth of gambling and the impact it has on NIL opportunities for student-athletes remains to be seen. We have already seen Barstool Sports, now owned by Penn Gaming, endorse student-athletes, which could be seen as a gambling company endorsing student-athletes. How this will unfold going forward is a massive unknown. But one thing is for sure: sports gambling is here to stay, and it is growing at a rate faster than many believed.
For first-timers, Covering the Tracks is a weekly preview of the upcoming Purdue football game through the lens of the gambling world. Whether you are new to sports gambling or just enjoy reading everything about Purdue football, my hope is this weekly column will provide some sort of entertainment and/or information in anticipation of the Boilers upcoming game. The age-old saying is “Vegas always knows” so even if you are not a gambler, this weekly article hopefully provides you with some insight into how games can be more accurately predicted and previewed by using gambling analysis. All opinions listed throughout the article are my own, and I would advise that you take them with a grain of salt.
If anyone is looking to get into sports gambling, particularly in regards to Purdue, I cannot emphasize the importance of bankroll management and long term success. The biggest mistake new sports gamblers make is failing to properly manage your bankroll. This is a long term game. Do not expect to bat 1.000. Going 60% over an extended period of time is great! Always look for value. I personally take a contrarian approach in my gambling because I believe the public inflates the lines with bias and value is found on the other side. Simple, yet effective. However, there are many different schools of thought and strategies. I encourage you to test them out and find what works. For this article, I will be using my own analysis. Indiana offers multiple online books (DraftKings, PointsBet, FanDuel, etc.). I would encourage you to shop around at different books, take advantage of promotions, and find the best possible lines you can. Value betting is crucial. If you have specific questions, feel free to ask!
Covid made last year one of the oddest in college football history (Is anyone surprised IU had a good season while playing all their games in empty stadiums?). While I expect this year to be closer to normal, it would be naïve to expect 100% normalcy. There very well could still be cases where players are held out of games last minute, or teams have to outright forfeit. Make sure you review the rules of whichever Sportsbook you use to see how they grade plays. Waiting till as close to game time as possible is recommended for that reason. Hopefully this is not an issue with Purdue due to their stellar vaccination rates, but you never know. Here is to a full season of Purdue football being back, and Ross-Ade being open.
As always, for those unfamiliar with sports gambling terminology, there is a glossary at the end. For this week, we look at the 2021Northwestern Wildcats.
Week 11 RECAP:
The Column goes 1-2 as Ohio State covers, the total goes over (maybe my worst ever pick in the history of the column), and LSU misses the cover by a half point in overtime.
2021 Season ATS Records:
Purdue: 5-5 ATS, Overs are 3-7.
Northwestern: 3-7 ATS, Overs are 5-5.
Current Betting breakdowns as of 9:00am on 11/19/21:
Current spread: Purdue -11 (Opened -11).
1H Spread: Purdue -6.5, O/U 23.5
Over/Under: 47.5 (Opened 48.5)
Bets: 90% on Purdue, 77% on over
Money: 59% on Purdue, 70% on over
Northwestern O/U: 17.5 (Over +100, Under -130)
Purdue O/U: 29.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
Jeff Brohm vs. Northwestern: 1-3, 1-3 ATS.
2021 Futures:
I am editing the futures to just show what the futures were to begin the season. I feel like this will add a level of comparison analysis. Some books have begun to restrict odds on conference winners. I encourage any reader to compare with their book odds, if offered, to compare performance.
ALL ODDS FROM 9/1/201:
To win the Big Ten Title Game: Purdue is 60/1.
To win the Big Ten West Division: Purdue is 25/1.
To win the National Championship: Purdue is 200/1.
Purdue’s season win total has CASHED. The Boilers hit 6 wins breaking the Vegas O/U of 5. Great job Boilers!
GK first overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft: 60/1 to start.
Bell Heisman: Rumors of some odds somewhere in the range of 200/1.
Trend Analysis for Northwestern:
· Purdue under Brohm is 4-6 ATS as an away favorite. Purdue has only been an away favorite against UConn this year, where the Boilers covered easily.
· Purdue is 15-10 ATS after a loss under Brohm. Purdue is 2-1 ATS after a loss this season. The Boilers failed to cover against Illinois, but then have covered two straight games after a loss with Iowa and Nebraska.
· Purdue is 1-6 SU in their last 7 games against Northwestern.
· Purdue is 2-1 ATS under Brohm in games at a neutral site. While this technically counts as a home game for Northwestern, only Pat Fitzgerald has coached a game in Wrigley. The Wildcats took on Illinois, and got beat pretty good, at Wrigley back in 2010. The change in venue will be new for all players on both teams and the change should still throw Northwestern off a bit.
· When Purdue is an away favorite, the over is 3-7. The Under has hit in Purdue’s only game as an away favorite this season.
· After a Purdue loss, the over is 11-13-1 in Purdue games under Brohm.
· As a home underdog, Northwestern is 19-19-2 ATS under Pat Fitzgerald. The Wildcats fail to cover in this spot by an average of 0.9 points, but lose the game on average by 8.9 points.
·Northwestern is 42-38 ATS after a loss under Pat Fitzgerald.
·Northwestern is 8-7 ATS as a home favorite under Pat Fitzgerald.
·Northwestern is 1-7 straight up in their last 8 conference games.
· The over is 31-45-4 after a Northwestern loss under Pat Fitzgerald.
· When Northwestern is a home underdog under Pat Fitzgerald, the over is 18-21-1.
Miscellaneous Factors:
·. The Windy City. Purdue heads to the Windy City to take Northwestern in the confines of Wrigley Field. As a lifelong Cincinnati Reds fan (Sell the team Castellini), Wrigley certainly does not have the same appeal to me as it will to many on this board, but I can still certainly appreciate the history and character of the venue. Obviously this game is being played on a baseball field, with both teams sharing a sideline. It will be a little bit odd and probably take some getting used to. I wonder how much the shape of the field may impact the players, particularly kickers.
· Giving Purdue Fitz. Jeff Brohm has struggled against Northwestern with Fitzgerald having Brohm’s number in these games. AOC did quarterback the only Purdue win over Northwestern in the Jeff Brohm era. Purdue gets a really good shot here as the Wildcats are having an extremely down year.
· Big Ten Championship Elimination. Purdue is essentially eliminated from Big Ten contention. The Boilers would need Nebraska to beat Wisconsin, IU to beat Minnesota, then Minnesota to beat Wisconsin, with Iowa losing to Illinois or Nebraska. It is a lot. This game will be a test to see if the Boilers can stay motivated with championship aspirations essentially put to bed.
Gambling Analysis:
Numbers: Purdue Northwestern is just about the farthest thing from sexy, and as such, the sample size is very small. Outside of Purdue and NW fans, not much action probably on the game. We are seeing a LOT of the sample size backing the Boilers. The public is also on the over it seems. We are seeing a small sharp buy on Northwestern. EDGE: Northwestern, Over
Trends: Unfortunately for Purdue fans, the trends are not great. Brohm is traditionally not great as a favorite, ESPECIALLY a double-digit favorite. The Boilers have struggled in this spot failing to cover in years past against Illinois and Nevada, notably. The good news for Purdue is that the environment, mixed with the excitement of playing at Wrigley, could be enough. The trends also have lean to the under. Northwestern has traditionally played well as an underdog and they almost always roll out a good defense. EDGE: Northwestern, Under
Situation: Situationally, this is as bad of a spot Purdue could be in after a loss. The Boilers offense looked incredible for a team that got beat by 28. The Boilers were able to throw with a lot of success on the Buckeyes and impressed across the offensive board to a national audience. The defense left a lot to be desired, but they objectively get a pass due to the pure talent at the Ohio State skill positions. Northwestern, on the other hand, is in a fantastic spot. The public persona of Northwestern is that, to put it bluntly, they are atrocious. Northwestern has been blown out by Nebraska and Wisconsin as of late and really has not been able to score. The total is in an interesting situational spot because as good as the Purdue offense has looked, the NW offense has looked that bad. EDGE: Northwestern, Under
Total Analysis: Northwestern comes in with the 20th ranked pass defense. Pat Fitzgerald has taken pride in Northwestern’s defense and he generally puts a good defensive product on the field. I looked at this line and was a little surprised it was only 11. I thought Purdue would be favored by significantly more, so much so that it became concerning. When I look at all three aspects (numbers, trends, situation) my lean is towards Northwestern. This will be an 11am kick, on a baseball field, in very cold Chicago weather. Northwestern has the ability to muck this game up and keep it closer than clearly the public believes. The line seems inflated, as so much money is coming on Purdue, but the line has not moved. For the total, very small money is on the over. Situationally, the total is a rock meets a hard place. In theory, the Boilers Offense should thrive while the Northwestern D struggles. I think the Purdue defense has a heck of a comeback with a chance to line up against receivers not named Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave. NW can be scrappy, and I think the NW game plan will be to shorten the game and force Purdue to be patient and run the ball. The wonkiness of playing in Wrigley could really keep these numbers down.
Prediction: 27-17 Boilers. This is a weird spot for the Boilers and the Brohm trend as a double digit favorite, combined with the situational spot for NW just gives too much value to NW. I cannot see NW scoring, so even if Purdue were to cover, I think the defense bounces back nicely. I just cannot see Northwestern laying over and dying with the line only at 11. I thought the same way against UConn, and look how that went for me. Go Boilers, Go Reds.
Official Plays 10-10: Northwestern +11, Under 47.5.
Bonus. Plug Your Nose and Hit “Place Bet” of the Week: Clemson -4.5. Wake Forest has looked incredible all year and Clemson giving 4.5 is so wild that I have to back the Tigers.
Glossary:
The spread: Arguably the most used term in all of gambling, the spread refers to the handicapped line set by the sportsbook. For those new to gambling, think of the spread as a prediction by the sports book, given all the circumstances, of what the difference between the two teams are. The favorite will be listed with a negative spread, while the underdog will have a positive spread. The spread is put in place as a handicap to make the underdog and favorite more equal. For example, Purdue is currently -11 against Northwestern meaning a sportsbook would expect Purdue to win by 11 points.
Odds and How to read them: The ability to read odds presents a gambler the insight into how a sportsbook or “Vegas” views a particular bet. The most common types of odds on sports bet will range from -105 to -115. -115 odds means that to win $10 dollars, a person would need to bet $11.50. Conversely, if the odds are positive, +115, then a bettor who bets $10 would win $11.50. To calculate ML odds for negative odds, take negative Moneyline odds / (Moneylines odds + 100) * 100 = Implied probability. So, if the odds are -115 then 115/(115+100)*100 = 53.5%.
Betting against the spread: Betting against the spread (“ATS”) means you are taking Purdue -11 or Northwestern +11. To cover the spread betting on Purdue, Purdue would need to win by more than 11. If one bets on the Northwestern spread, the Wildcats would have to win or lose by less than 11.
Cover: This means a team won ATS. If Purdue beats Northwestern by 2, Purdue has won the game, but Northwestern has covered.
Money line: Money line (“ML”) is the odds given on a particular team just to win outright. Payouts can be significantly more or less than betting the spread. For example, betting on a big favorite to win on ML will not yield a very high return. Conversely, betting on a big underdog to win could sometimes pay out double or even triple your original bet. It all depends on the odds.
Over/Under: Over/unders are a type of bets that refer to how many total points will be scored in a game. For example, if the sportsbook sets an over/under of 49, bettors will bet under if they believe less than 49 points will be scored and vice-versa.
Sharp Bettor: A sharp bettor is a bettor who has shown the ability to turn a profit over the long run. These are generally gamblers that have shown a history of success. Sharp bettors are very useful in identifying value in a particular bet.
Juice: Juice may be the most confusing aspect for new gamblers or those unfamiliar with gambling. In simple terms, juice is the percentage sportsbooks take on a given wager. Sportsbook use juice to make their profit. To do this, odds for a bet with a sports book are normally -115 or -110 for both sides of the spread. This means that to win ten dollars, you would need to be $11.50. That means either way, the sportsbook is gaining a profit because each side is losing $1.50 per bet. This is the juice.
If there is a definition not listed that you think would be helpful, please let me know.
For first-timers, Covering the Tracks is a weekly preview of the upcoming Purdue football game through the lens of the gambling world. Whether you are new to sports gambling or just enjoy reading everything about Purdue football, my hope is this weekly column will provide some sort of entertainment and/or information in anticipation of the Boilers upcoming game. The age-old saying is “Vegas always knows” so even if you are not a gambler, this weekly article hopefully provides you with some insight into how games can be more accurately predicted and previewed by using gambling analysis. All opinions listed throughout the article are my own, and I would advise that you take them with a grain of salt.
If anyone is looking to get into sports gambling, particularly in regards to Purdue, I cannot emphasize the importance of bankroll management and long term success. The biggest mistake new sports gamblers make is failing to properly manage your bankroll. This is a long term game. Do not expect to bat 1.000. Going 60% over an extended period of time is great! Always look for value. I personally take a contrarian approach in my gambling because I believe the public inflates the lines with bias and value is found on the other side. Simple, yet effective. However, there are many different schools of thought and strategies. I encourage you to test them out and find what works. For this article, I will be using my own analysis. Indiana offers multiple online books (DraftKings, PointsBet, FanDuel, etc.). I would encourage you to shop around at different books, take advantage of promotions, and find the best possible lines you can. Value betting is crucial. If you have specific questions, feel free to ask!
Covid made last year one of the oddest in college football history (Is anyone surprised IU had a good season while playing all their games in empty stadiums?). While I expect this year to be closer to normal, it would be naïve to expect 100% normalcy. There very well could still be cases where players are held out of games last minute, or teams have to outright forfeit. Make sure you review the rules of whichever Sportsbook you use to see how they grade plays. Waiting till as close to game time as possible is recommended for that reason. Hopefully this is not an issue with Purdue due to their stellar vaccination rates, but you never know. Here is to a full season of Purdue football being back, and Ross-Ade being open.
As always, for those unfamiliar with sports gambling terminology, there is a glossary at the end. For this week, we look at the 2021Northwestern Wildcats.
Week 11 RECAP:
The Column goes 1-2 as Ohio State covers, the total goes over (maybe my worst ever pick in the history of the column), and LSU misses the cover by a half point in overtime.
2021 Season ATS Records:
Purdue: 5-5 ATS, Overs are 3-7.
Northwestern: 3-7 ATS, Overs are 5-5.
Current Betting breakdowns as of 9:00am on 11/19/21:
Current spread: Purdue -11 (Opened -11).
1H Spread: Purdue -6.5, O/U 23.5
Over/Under: 47.5 (Opened 48.5)
Bets: 90% on Purdue, 77% on over
Money: 59% on Purdue, 70% on over
Northwestern O/U: 17.5 (Over +100, Under -130)
Purdue O/U: 29.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
Jeff Brohm vs. Northwestern: 1-3, 1-3 ATS.
2021 Futures:
I am editing the futures to just show what the futures were to begin the season. I feel like this will add a level of comparison analysis. Some books have begun to restrict odds on conference winners. I encourage any reader to compare with their book odds, if offered, to compare performance.
ALL ODDS FROM 9/1/201:
To win the Big Ten Title Game: Purdue is 60/1.
To win the Big Ten West Division: Purdue is 25/1.
To win the National Championship: Purdue is 200/1.
Purdue’s season win total has CASHED. The Boilers hit 6 wins breaking the Vegas O/U of 5. Great job Boilers!
GK first overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft: 60/1 to start.
Bell Heisman: Rumors of some odds somewhere in the range of 200/1.
Trend Analysis for Northwestern:
· Purdue under Brohm is 4-6 ATS as an away favorite. Purdue has only been an away favorite against UConn this year, where the Boilers covered easily.
· Purdue is 15-10 ATS after a loss under Brohm. Purdue is 2-1 ATS after a loss this season. The Boilers failed to cover against Illinois, but then have covered two straight games after a loss with Iowa and Nebraska.
· Purdue is 1-6 SU in their last 7 games against Northwestern.
· Purdue is 2-1 ATS under Brohm in games at a neutral site. While this technically counts as a home game for Northwestern, only Pat Fitzgerald has coached a game in Wrigley. The Wildcats took on Illinois, and got beat pretty good, at Wrigley back in 2010. The change in venue will be new for all players on both teams and the change should still throw Northwestern off a bit.
· When Purdue is an away favorite, the over is 3-7. The Under has hit in Purdue’s only game as an away favorite this season.
· After a Purdue loss, the over is 11-13-1 in Purdue games under Brohm.
· As a home underdog, Northwestern is 19-19-2 ATS under Pat Fitzgerald. The Wildcats fail to cover in this spot by an average of 0.9 points, but lose the game on average by 8.9 points.
·Northwestern is 42-38 ATS after a loss under Pat Fitzgerald.
·Northwestern is 8-7 ATS as a home favorite under Pat Fitzgerald.
·Northwestern is 1-7 straight up in their last 8 conference games.
· The over is 31-45-4 after a Northwestern loss under Pat Fitzgerald.
· When Northwestern is a home underdog under Pat Fitzgerald, the over is 18-21-1.
Miscellaneous Factors:
·. The Windy City. Purdue heads to the Windy City to take Northwestern in the confines of Wrigley Field. As a lifelong Cincinnati Reds fan (Sell the team Castellini), Wrigley certainly does not have the same appeal to me as it will to many on this board, but I can still certainly appreciate the history and character of the venue. Obviously this game is being played on a baseball field, with both teams sharing a sideline. It will be a little bit odd and probably take some getting used to. I wonder how much the shape of the field may impact the players, particularly kickers.
· Giving Purdue Fitz. Jeff Brohm has struggled against Northwestern with Fitzgerald having Brohm’s number in these games. AOC did quarterback the only Purdue win over Northwestern in the Jeff Brohm era. Purdue gets a really good shot here as the Wildcats are having an extremely down year.
· Big Ten Championship Elimination. Purdue is essentially eliminated from Big Ten contention. The Boilers would need Nebraska to beat Wisconsin, IU to beat Minnesota, then Minnesota to beat Wisconsin, with Iowa losing to Illinois or Nebraska. It is a lot. This game will be a test to see if the Boilers can stay motivated with championship aspirations essentially put to bed.
Gambling Analysis:
Numbers: Purdue Northwestern is just about the farthest thing from sexy, and as such, the sample size is very small. Outside of Purdue and NW fans, not much action probably on the game. We are seeing a LOT of the sample size backing the Boilers. The public is also on the over it seems. We are seeing a small sharp buy on Northwestern. EDGE: Northwestern, Over
Trends: Unfortunately for Purdue fans, the trends are not great. Brohm is traditionally not great as a favorite, ESPECIALLY a double-digit favorite. The Boilers have struggled in this spot failing to cover in years past against Illinois and Nevada, notably. The good news for Purdue is that the environment, mixed with the excitement of playing at Wrigley, could be enough. The trends also have lean to the under. Northwestern has traditionally played well as an underdog and they almost always roll out a good defense. EDGE: Northwestern, Under
Situation: Situationally, this is as bad of a spot Purdue could be in after a loss. The Boilers offense looked incredible for a team that got beat by 28. The Boilers were able to throw with a lot of success on the Buckeyes and impressed across the offensive board to a national audience. The defense left a lot to be desired, but they objectively get a pass due to the pure talent at the Ohio State skill positions. Northwestern, on the other hand, is in a fantastic spot. The public persona of Northwestern is that, to put it bluntly, they are atrocious. Northwestern has been blown out by Nebraska and Wisconsin as of late and really has not been able to score. The total is in an interesting situational spot because as good as the Purdue offense has looked, the NW offense has looked that bad. EDGE: Northwestern, Under
Total Analysis: Northwestern comes in with the 20th ranked pass defense. Pat Fitzgerald has taken pride in Northwestern’s defense and he generally puts a good defensive product on the field. I looked at this line and was a little surprised it was only 11. I thought Purdue would be favored by significantly more, so much so that it became concerning. When I look at all three aspects (numbers, trends, situation) my lean is towards Northwestern. This will be an 11am kick, on a baseball field, in very cold Chicago weather. Northwestern has the ability to muck this game up and keep it closer than clearly the public believes. The line seems inflated, as so much money is coming on Purdue, but the line has not moved. For the total, very small money is on the over. Situationally, the total is a rock meets a hard place. In theory, the Boilers Offense should thrive while the Northwestern D struggles. I think the Purdue defense has a heck of a comeback with a chance to line up against receivers not named Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave. NW can be scrappy, and I think the NW game plan will be to shorten the game and force Purdue to be patient and run the ball. The wonkiness of playing in Wrigley could really keep these numbers down.
Prediction: 27-17 Boilers. This is a weird spot for the Boilers and the Brohm trend as a double digit favorite, combined with the situational spot for NW just gives too much value to NW. I cannot see NW scoring, so even if Purdue were to cover, I think the defense bounces back nicely. I just cannot see Northwestern laying over and dying with the line only at 11. I thought the same way against UConn, and look how that went for me. Go Boilers, Go Reds.
Official Plays 10-10: Northwestern +11, Under 47.5.
Bonus. Plug Your Nose and Hit “Place Bet” of the Week: Clemson -4.5. Wake Forest has looked incredible all year and Clemson giving 4.5 is so wild that I have to back the Tigers.
Glossary:
The spread: Arguably the most used term in all of gambling, the spread refers to the handicapped line set by the sportsbook. For those new to gambling, think of the spread as a prediction by the sports book, given all the circumstances, of what the difference between the two teams are. The favorite will be listed with a negative spread, while the underdog will have a positive spread. The spread is put in place as a handicap to make the underdog and favorite more equal. For example, Purdue is currently -11 against Northwestern meaning a sportsbook would expect Purdue to win by 11 points.
Odds and How to read them: The ability to read odds presents a gambler the insight into how a sportsbook or “Vegas” views a particular bet. The most common types of odds on sports bet will range from -105 to -115. -115 odds means that to win $10 dollars, a person would need to bet $11.50. Conversely, if the odds are positive, +115, then a bettor who bets $10 would win $11.50. To calculate ML odds for negative odds, take negative Moneyline odds / (Moneylines odds + 100) * 100 = Implied probability. So, if the odds are -115 then 115/(115+100)*100 = 53.5%.
Betting against the spread: Betting against the spread (“ATS”) means you are taking Purdue -11 or Northwestern +11. To cover the spread betting on Purdue, Purdue would need to win by more than 11. If one bets on the Northwestern spread, the Wildcats would have to win or lose by less than 11.
Cover: This means a team won ATS. If Purdue beats Northwestern by 2, Purdue has won the game, but Northwestern has covered.
Money line: Money line (“ML”) is the odds given on a particular team just to win outright. Payouts can be significantly more or less than betting the spread. For example, betting on a big favorite to win on ML will not yield a very high return. Conversely, betting on a big underdog to win could sometimes pay out double or even triple your original bet. It all depends on the odds.
Over/Under: Over/unders are a type of bets that refer to how many total points will be scored in a game. For example, if the sportsbook sets an over/under of 49, bettors will bet under if they believe less than 49 points will be scored and vice-versa.
Sharp Bettor: A sharp bettor is a bettor who has shown the ability to turn a profit over the long run. These are generally gamblers that have shown a history of success. Sharp bettors are very useful in identifying value in a particular bet.
Juice: Juice may be the most confusing aspect for new gamblers or those unfamiliar with gambling. In simple terms, juice is the percentage sportsbooks take on a given wager. Sportsbook use juice to make their profit. To do this, odds for a bet with a sports book are normally -115 or -110 for both sides of the spread. This means that to win ten dollars, you would need to be $11.50. That means either way, the sportsbook is gaining a profit because each side is losing $1.50 per bet. This is the juice.
If there is a definition not listed that you think would be helpful, please let me know.
