Welcome to the third year, eighth edition of Covering the Tracks. As fans, we are about to experience arguably the greatest shift in the college football landscape from one season to the next. Last season we saw empty stadiums, shortened schedules, and a reduction in the usual traditions that make college football great. Since then, we have seen a landmark decision from the SCOTUS in the Alston case, NIL rights granted to student-athletes, and a return to normalcy in stadium attendance and tradition (This is not to mention the giant shift in perennial power and greed from the SEC with Texas and Oklahoma but that is for another day; I digress). Through all of this, we have continued to see the massive upswing of gambling popularity as it loses the traditional taboo tag it once had. Even today, the NFL, an extremely anti-gambling organization in the past, has partnered with multiple gaming companies as the official betting partners of the NFL. The growth of gambling and the impact it has on NIL opportunities for student-athletes remains to be seen. We have already seen Barstool Sports, now owned by Penn Gaming, endorse student-athletes, which could be seen as a gambling company endorsing student-athletes. How this will unfold going forward is a massive unknown. But one thing is for sure: sports gambling is here to stay, and it is growing at a rate faster than many believed.
For first-timers, Covering the Tracks is a weekly preview of the upcoming Purdue football game through the lens of the gambling world. Whether you are new to sports gambling or just enjoy reading everything about Purdue football, my hope is this weekly column will provide some sort of entertainment and/or information in anticipation of the Boilers upcoming game. The age-old saying is “Vegas always knows” so even if you are not a gambler, this weekly article hopefully provides you with some insight into how games can be more accurately predicted and previewed by using gambling analysis. All opinions listed throughout the article are my own, and I would advise that you take them with a grain of salt.
If anyone is looking to get into sports gambling, particularly in regards to Purdue, I cannot emphasize the importance of bankroll management and long term success. The biggest mistake new sports gamblers make is failing to properly manage your bankroll. This is a long term game. Do not expect to bat 1.000. Going 60% over an extended period of time is great! Always look for value. I personally take a contrarian approach in my gambling because I believe the public inflates the lines with bias and value is found on the other side. Simple, yet effective. However, there are many different schools of thought and strategies. I encourage you to test them out and find what works. For this article, I will be using my own analysis. Indiana offers multiple online books (DraftKings, PointsBet, FanDuel, etc.). I would encourage you to shop around at different books, take advantage of promotions, and find the best possible lines you can. Value betting is crucial. If you have specific questions, feel free to ask!
Covid made last year one of the oddest in college football history (Is anyone surprised IU had a good season while playing all their games in empty stadiums?). While I expect this year to be closer to normal, it would be naive to expect 100% normalcy. There very well could still be cases where players are held out of games last minute, or teams have to outright forfeit. Make sure you review the rules of whichever Sportsbook you use to see how they grade plays. Waiting till as close to gametime as possible is recommended for that reason. Hopefully this is not an issue with Purdue due to their stellar vaccination rates, but you never know. Here is to a full season of Purdue football being back, and Ross-Ade being open.
As always, for those unfamiliar with sports gambling terminology, there is a glossary at the end. For this week, we look at the 2021 Nebraska Cornhuskers.
Week 7 RECAP:
The Column goes 1-2 with Wisconsin covering, rather easily unfortunately. Fitting a Purdue over hits when I finally bite on an under. Iowa State won, but failed to cover making the plug your nose segment almost a must fade.
2021 Season ATS Records:
Purdue: 3-4 ATS, Overs are 1-6.
Nebraska: 5-3 ATS, Overs are 4-4. Nebraska has had some insane games that have come down to a play or two. They are an Adrian Martinez bone-headed play from beating Michigan and probably Michigan State too. The Huskers were able to cover both. Nebraska obviously had an awful start ATS losing to Illinois as a favorite, but has rallied and kept games close.
Current Betting breakdowns as of 9:00pm on 10/28/21:
Current spread: Purdue +7.5 (Opened +6.5).
1H Spread: Purdue +4, O/U 26.5
Over/Under: 52.5 (Opened 50)
Bets: 55% on Purdue, 44% on over
Money: 59% on Purdue, 21% on over
Nebraska O/U: 30.5 (Over -105, Under -125)
Purdue O/U: 21.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
Jeff Brohm vs. Nebraska: 1-3, 1-3 ATS.
2021 Futures:
I am editing the futures to just show what the futures were to begin the season. I feel like this will add a level of comparison analysis. Some books have begun to restrict odds on conference winners. I encourage any reader to compare with their book odds, if offered, to compare performance.
ALL ODDS FROM 9/1/201:
To win the Big Ten Title Game: Purdue is 60/1.
To win the Big Ten West Division: Purdue is 25/1.
To win the National Championship: Purdue is 200/1.
Purdue’s season win total is set at O/U 5 wins. The Over is slightly favored at -125, while under is +105. What a win from the Boilers over Iowa to really give this bet some hope. With a loss, Purdue likely would have absolutely needed to beat IU and NW, while also stealing a game from MSU/OSU/Nebraska/Nebraska. Now, Purdue can push just by winning one of those games against IU and NW. Purdue is in a great spot here.
GK first overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft: 60/1 to start, some books now at 30/1.
Trend Analysis for Nebraska:
· Purdue under Brohm is 7-2 ATS as an away underdog. The “Fade Brohm as a favorite and back as a dog” narrative has taken a small step back after covering three games in a row. This is the third time Purdue will be an away underdog this year, after failing to cover against Notre Dame and beating Iowa outright.
· Purdue is 14-10 ATS after a loss under Brohm. Purdue is 1-1 ATS after a loss this year, failing to cover against Illinois after losing to Notre Dame, but the Boilers did cover against Iowa after losing to Minnesota.
· Purdue is now 1-7 ATS in its last 8 conference games against Big Ten West opponents, with the only cover being against Iowa this year.
· After a loss, the over is 11-12-1 in Purdue games under Brohm. This season overs are 0-2 after a loss.
· When Purdue is an away underdog, the over is 1-8. The under has hit in both of Purdue’s games as an away underdog against Notre Dame and Iowa.
· Under Scott Frost, Nebraska is 0-5 ATS after a bye week.
· As a home favorite, Nebraska is 7-8 ATS under Scott Frost. The Cornhuskers fail to cover in this spot by an average of 1.3 points, but win the game on average by 14.2 points.
· Nebraska is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games in October under Scott Frost.
· With a rest advantage under Frost, Nebraska is 2-5 ATS.
· Under Coach Frost, overs are 6-9 ATS in games where Nebraska is a home favorite.
· The over is 2-3 after a bye in Nebraska games under Scott Frost.
· The over has hit in 7 of Nebraska’s last ten home games.
Miscellaneous Factors:
· Double look ahead? Purdue and Nebraska both come into this game with a big look ahead spot on the schedule. Purdue will take on Michigan State at home, while Nebraska gets Ohio State. Neither of these teams can afford to overlook the other, so not sure how much of an issue this should be.
· Fun while it lasted. Purdue ended the rankings drought, but quickly came back to earth as the Boilers fell out of the rankings. How will the Boilers bounce back? The Big Ten West is still doable, but it is fleeting out of grasp.
· Only one Nebraska Cornhusker with Indiana ties as Markese Stepp joined the Huskers.
·Can a real QB please stand up? AOC has been named the starter after some atrocious decision making last week. Brohm arguably got too cute with the three-QB system, especially when Austin and Jack are clearly not throwing. Which QB will we get?
· Weather looks awesome for late October. Game time low 60’s with sun.
Gambling Analysis:
Numbers: There is currently a small differential in Purdue’s favor. 55% of the bets are on Purdue, but Purdue is taking 59% of the money, suggesting a 4% spread difference in Purdue’s favor. Public seems to be big on the under early, but the sample size of betting is not large enough to feel confident in the numbers. The spread movement is a little odd with more money coming on Purdue, but the number moving towards Nebraska. I am not sure when the Purdue money came in. The importance of this being, if the money on Purdue came in after the spread had moved, this would suggest sharps liking Purdue to cover and potentially lose by 7, since Purdue gets under the football number. If the spread moved after Purdue money had come in, this would suggest a reverse line movement. Money on one side, but the spread moves the other. Vegas could be essentially soliciting even more bets on Purdue by moving it in Nebraska’s favor. The spread crossing a football number (3, 7, 10, etc.) is certainly interesting. EDGE: Purdue barely, Over
Trends: Nebraska and Purdue both seem to want to be the underdog. Purdue has done a really good job as a road underdog, it is Brohm’s forte. Nebraska has significantly struggled coming off of a bye. 0-5 ATS is wild. The under seems to be a strong play on a trendline. Purdue has had the under hit almost exclusively when a road underdog. Nebraska has played in primarily one score games in Big Ten play, with the exception of their curb stomping on Northwestern. EDGE: Purdue, Under
Situation: The Purdue offense is coming off a Wisconsin game where the offense looked anemic. Nebraska has had a week off to stew about a tough loss to Minnesota. Both have a potential look ahead spot with top 10 teams on the horizon. I was a little surprised when the spread was released. I expected Nebraska to be a small favorite, but more than a touchdown is a lot. I thought the public may be on Nebraska after Purdue’s showing against Wisconsin, but that is not the case it seems. Situationally, I think Purdue may have a slight advantage, but not much. From a total standpoint, public all over the under, and even with Purdue hitting the over last week, it was a very low total. EDGE: Purdue, Over
Total Analysis: Purdue and Nebraska have been two programs somewhat parallel over the past couple years. While both are dreaming of national prominence (Nebraska more so), both have consistently been mediocre Big Ten West Members. This line worries me for a couple reasons. Nebraska being -7.5 seems to be an invitation for people to bet on Purdue, since Purdue could lose by a touchdown and cover. Additionally, Purdue did look bad against Wisconsin, but enough to be a 7.5 point underdog? This is a Jeff Brohm spot. Outside of Nebraska being a ranked team, it is almost the perfect Brohm spot. The advanced metrics crowd seems to love Nebraska, and I get it, to an extent. Nebraska is a couple plays away from having a very different season. This will be, in my opinion, a tell tale sign of the rest of the season. Purdue has suffered a second Big Ten West loss, and Purdue is at a crossroads. Nebraska has come up barely short against both Michigan schools and Minnesota, so the Huskers surely are expecting a win. All three gambling analysis categories point to Purdue. Brohm is an underdog, coming off an awful game, with some sharp backing. Maybe the 7.5 is the cheese and Vegas knows I am a stupid mouse who will go for the cheese everytime. But I think the Boilers cover. I have to back Brohm in this spot.
Prediction: 27-20 Cornhuskers. The Purdue offense needs to show some life again, but I am just concerned about the quarterback situation, especially from a turnover standpoint. I still firmly believe in the Purdue defense, so I will take the under. If MSU beats Michigan, and Purdue loses to Nebraska, Boilers ML at home next weekend is a lock. (I know I posted this column a little early this week, but I will be in a car all day Friday on the way to Lincoln, so please forgive the late night posting and I apologize in advance for typos).
Official Plays 5-9: Purdue +7.5, Over 52. This has done me pretty bad all year, figure it has to hit once. Purdue defense has kept this team together all year, I just hope they do not collapse after Wisconsin dropped 30 last week.
Bonus. Plug Your Nose and Hit “Place Bet” of the Week: Wisconsin -3.5. It is only fitting to keep backing Wisconsin here, and the one time we do not, they beat Purdue. I have no idea how Wisconsin is favored over Iowa, and with so much public money on Iowa, I will take the Badgers.
Glossary:
The spread: Arguably the most used term in all of gambling, the spread refers to the handicapped line set by the sportsbook. For those new to gambling, think of the spread as a prediction by the sports book, given all the circumstances, of what the difference between the two teams are. The favorite will be listed with a negative spread, while the underdog will have a positive spread. The spread is put in place as a handicap to make the underdog and favorite more equal. For example, Purdue is currently +7.5 against Nebraska meaning a sportsbook would expect Purdue to lose by 7 or 8 points.
Odds and How to read them: The ability to read odds presents a gambler the insight into how a sportsbook or “Vegas” views a particular bet. The most common types of odds on sports bet will range from -105 to -115. -115 odds means that to win $10 dollars, a person would need to bet $11.50. Conversely, if the odds are positive, +115, then a bettor who bets $10 would win $11.50. To calculate ML odds for negative odds, take negative Moneyline odds / (Moneylines odds + 100) * 100 = Implied probability. So, if the odds are -115 then 115/(115+100)*100 = 53.5%.
Betting against the spread: Betting against the spread (“ATS”) means you are taking Purdue +7.5 or Nebraska -7.5. To cover the spread betting on Purdue, Purdue would need to lose by less than 8 or win. If one bets on the Nebraska spread, the Cornhuskers would have to win by more than 7.
Cover: This means a team won ATS. If Nebraska beats Purdue by 2, Nebraska has won the game, but Purdue has covered.
Money line: Money line (“ML”) is the odds given on a particular team just to win outright. Payouts can be significantly more or less than betting the spread. For example, betting on a big favorite to win on ML will not yield a very high return. Conversely, betting on a big underdog to win could sometimes pay out double or even triple your original bet. It all depends on the odds.
Over/Under: Over/unders are a type of bet that refer to how many total points will be scored in a game. For example, if the sportsbook sets an over/under of 49, bettors will bet under if they believe less than 49 points will be scored and vice-versa.
Sharp Bettor: A sharp bettor is a bettor who has shown the ability to turn a profit over the long run. These are generally gamblers that have shown a history of success. Sharp bettors are very useful in identifying value in a particular bet.
Juice: Juice may be the most confusing aspect for new gamblers or those unfamiliar with gambling. In simple terms, juice is the percentage sportsbooks take on a given wager. Sportsbook use juice to make their profit. To do this, odds for a bet with a sports book are normally -115 or -110 for both sides of the spread. This means that to win ten dollars, you would need to be $11.50. That means either way, the sportsbook is gaining a profit because each side is losing $1.50 per bet. This is the juice.
If there is a definition not listed that you think would be helpful, please let me know.
For first-timers, Covering the Tracks is a weekly preview of the upcoming Purdue football game through the lens of the gambling world. Whether you are new to sports gambling or just enjoy reading everything about Purdue football, my hope is this weekly column will provide some sort of entertainment and/or information in anticipation of the Boilers upcoming game. The age-old saying is “Vegas always knows” so even if you are not a gambler, this weekly article hopefully provides you with some insight into how games can be more accurately predicted and previewed by using gambling analysis. All opinions listed throughout the article are my own, and I would advise that you take them with a grain of salt.
If anyone is looking to get into sports gambling, particularly in regards to Purdue, I cannot emphasize the importance of bankroll management and long term success. The biggest mistake new sports gamblers make is failing to properly manage your bankroll. This is a long term game. Do not expect to bat 1.000. Going 60% over an extended period of time is great! Always look for value. I personally take a contrarian approach in my gambling because I believe the public inflates the lines with bias and value is found on the other side. Simple, yet effective. However, there are many different schools of thought and strategies. I encourage you to test them out and find what works. For this article, I will be using my own analysis. Indiana offers multiple online books (DraftKings, PointsBet, FanDuel, etc.). I would encourage you to shop around at different books, take advantage of promotions, and find the best possible lines you can. Value betting is crucial. If you have specific questions, feel free to ask!
Covid made last year one of the oddest in college football history (Is anyone surprised IU had a good season while playing all their games in empty stadiums?). While I expect this year to be closer to normal, it would be naive to expect 100% normalcy. There very well could still be cases where players are held out of games last minute, or teams have to outright forfeit. Make sure you review the rules of whichever Sportsbook you use to see how they grade plays. Waiting till as close to gametime as possible is recommended for that reason. Hopefully this is not an issue with Purdue due to their stellar vaccination rates, but you never know. Here is to a full season of Purdue football being back, and Ross-Ade being open.
As always, for those unfamiliar with sports gambling terminology, there is a glossary at the end. For this week, we look at the 2021 Nebraska Cornhuskers.
Week 7 RECAP:
The Column goes 1-2 with Wisconsin covering, rather easily unfortunately. Fitting a Purdue over hits when I finally bite on an under. Iowa State won, but failed to cover making the plug your nose segment almost a must fade.
2021 Season ATS Records:
Purdue: 3-4 ATS, Overs are 1-6.
Nebraska: 5-3 ATS, Overs are 4-4. Nebraska has had some insane games that have come down to a play or two. They are an Adrian Martinez bone-headed play from beating Michigan and probably Michigan State too. The Huskers were able to cover both. Nebraska obviously had an awful start ATS losing to Illinois as a favorite, but has rallied and kept games close.
Current Betting breakdowns as of 9:00pm on 10/28/21:
Current spread: Purdue +7.5 (Opened +6.5).
1H Spread: Purdue +4, O/U 26.5
Over/Under: 52.5 (Opened 50)
Bets: 55% on Purdue, 44% on over
Money: 59% on Purdue, 21% on over
Nebraska O/U: 30.5 (Over -105, Under -125)
Purdue O/U: 21.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
Jeff Brohm vs. Nebraska: 1-3, 1-3 ATS.
2021 Futures:
I am editing the futures to just show what the futures were to begin the season. I feel like this will add a level of comparison analysis. Some books have begun to restrict odds on conference winners. I encourage any reader to compare with their book odds, if offered, to compare performance.
ALL ODDS FROM 9/1/201:
To win the Big Ten Title Game: Purdue is 60/1.
To win the Big Ten West Division: Purdue is 25/1.
To win the National Championship: Purdue is 200/1.
Purdue’s season win total is set at O/U 5 wins. The Over is slightly favored at -125, while under is +105. What a win from the Boilers over Iowa to really give this bet some hope. With a loss, Purdue likely would have absolutely needed to beat IU and NW, while also stealing a game from MSU/OSU/Nebraska/Nebraska. Now, Purdue can push just by winning one of those games against IU and NW. Purdue is in a great spot here.
GK first overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft: 60/1 to start, some books now at 30/1.
Trend Analysis for Nebraska:
· Purdue under Brohm is 7-2 ATS as an away underdog. The “Fade Brohm as a favorite and back as a dog” narrative has taken a small step back after covering three games in a row. This is the third time Purdue will be an away underdog this year, after failing to cover against Notre Dame and beating Iowa outright.
· Purdue is 14-10 ATS after a loss under Brohm. Purdue is 1-1 ATS after a loss this year, failing to cover against Illinois after losing to Notre Dame, but the Boilers did cover against Iowa after losing to Minnesota.
· Purdue is now 1-7 ATS in its last 8 conference games against Big Ten West opponents, with the only cover being against Iowa this year.
· After a loss, the over is 11-12-1 in Purdue games under Brohm. This season overs are 0-2 after a loss.
· When Purdue is an away underdog, the over is 1-8. The under has hit in both of Purdue’s games as an away underdog against Notre Dame and Iowa.
· Under Scott Frost, Nebraska is 0-5 ATS after a bye week.
· As a home favorite, Nebraska is 7-8 ATS under Scott Frost. The Cornhuskers fail to cover in this spot by an average of 1.3 points, but win the game on average by 14.2 points.
· Nebraska is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games in October under Scott Frost.
· With a rest advantage under Frost, Nebraska is 2-5 ATS.
· Under Coach Frost, overs are 6-9 ATS in games where Nebraska is a home favorite.
· The over is 2-3 after a bye in Nebraska games under Scott Frost.
· The over has hit in 7 of Nebraska’s last ten home games.
Miscellaneous Factors:
· Double look ahead? Purdue and Nebraska both come into this game with a big look ahead spot on the schedule. Purdue will take on Michigan State at home, while Nebraska gets Ohio State. Neither of these teams can afford to overlook the other, so not sure how much of an issue this should be.
· Fun while it lasted. Purdue ended the rankings drought, but quickly came back to earth as the Boilers fell out of the rankings. How will the Boilers bounce back? The Big Ten West is still doable, but it is fleeting out of grasp.
· Only one Nebraska Cornhusker with Indiana ties as Markese Stepp joined the Huskers.
·Can a real QB please stand up? AOC has been named the starter after some atrocious decision making last week. Brohm arguably got too cute with the three-QB system, especially when Austin and Jack are clearly not throwing. Which QB will we get?
· Weather looks awesome for late October. Game time low 60’s with sun.
Gambling Analysis:
Numbers: There is currently a small differential in Purdue’s favor. 55% of the bets are on Purdue, but Purdue is taking 59% of the money, suggesting a 4% spread difference in Purdue’s favor. Public seems to be big on the under early, but the sample size of betting is not large enough to feel confident in the numbers. The spread movement is a little odd with more money coming on Purdue, but the number moving towards Nebraska. I am not sure when the Purdue money came in. The importance of this being, if the money on Purdue came in after the spread had moved, this would suggest sharps liking Purdue to cover and potentially lose by 7, since Purdue gets under the football number. If the spread moved after Purdue money had come in, this would suggest a reverse line movement. Money on one side, but the spread moves the other. Vegas could be essentially soliciting even more bets on Purdue by moving it in Nebraska’s favor. The spread crossing a football number (3, 7, 10, etc.) is certainly interesting. EDGE: Purdue barely, Over
Trends: Nebraska and Purdue both seem to want to be the underdog. Purdue has done a really good job as a road underdog, it is Brohm’s forte. Nebraska has significantly struggled coming off of a bye. 0-5 ATS is wild. The under seems to be a strong play on a trendline. Purdue has had the under hit almost exclusively when a road underdog. Nebraska has played in primarily one score games in Big Ten play, with the exception of their curb stomping on Northwestern. EDGE: Purdue, Under
Situation: The Purdue offense is coming off a Wisconsin game where the offense looked anemic. Nebraska has had a week off to stew about a tough loss to Minnesota. Both have a potential look ahead spot with top 10 teams on the horizon. I was a little surprised when the spread was released. I expected Nebraska to be a small favorite, but more than a touchdown is a lot. I thought the public may be on Nebraska after Purdue’s showing against Wisconsin, but that is not the case it seems. Situationally, I think Purdue may have a slight advantage, but not much. From a total standpoint, public all over the under, and even with Purdue hitting the over last week, it was a very low total. EDGE: Purdue, Over
Total Analysis: Purdue and Nebraska have been two programs somewhat parallel over the past couple years. While both are dreaming of national prominence (Nebraska more so), both have consistently been mediocre Big Ten West Members. This line worries me for a couple reasons. Nebraska being -7.5 seems to be an invitation for people to bet on Purdue, since Purdue could lose by a touchdown and cover. Additionally, Purdue did look bad against Wisconsin, but enough to be a 7.5 point underdog? This is a Jeff Brohm spot. Outside of Nebraska being a ranked team, it is almost the perfect Brohm spot. The advanced metrics crowd seems to love Nebraska, and I get it, to an extent. Nebraska is a couple plays away from having a very different season. This will be, in my opinion, a tell tale sign of the rest of the season. Purdue has suffered a second Big Ten West loss, and Purdue is at a crossroads. Nebraska has come up barely short against both Michigan schools and Minnesota, so the Huskers surely are expecting a win. All three gambling analysis categories point to Purdue. Brohm is an underdog, coming off an awful game, with some sharp backing. Maybe the 7.5 is the cheese and Vegas knows I am a stupid mouse who will go for the cheese everytime. But I think the Boilers cover. I have to back Brohm in this spot.
Prediction: 27-20 Cornhuskers. The Purdue offense needs to show some life again, but I am just concerned about the quarterback situation, especially from a turnover standpoint. I still firmly believe in the Purdue defense, so I will take the under. If MSU beats Michigan, and Purdue loses to Nebraska, Boilers ML at home next weekend is a lock. (I know I posted this column a little early this week, but I will be in a car all day Friday on the way to Lincoln, so please forgive the late night posting and I apologize in advance for typos).
Official Plays 5-9: Purdue +7.5, Over 52. This has done me pretty bad all year, figure it has to hit once. Purdue defense has kept this team together all year, I just hope they do not collapse after Wisconsin dropped 30 last week.
Bonus. Plug Your Nose and Hit “Place Bet” of the Week: Wisconsin -3.5. It is only fitting to keep backing Wisconsin here, and the one time we do not, they beat Purdue. I have no idea how Wisconsin is favored over Iowa, and with so much public money on Iowa, I will take the Badgers.
Glossary:
The spread: Arguably the most used term in all of gambling, the spread refers to the handicapped line set by the sportsbook. For those new to gambling, think of the spread as a prediction by the sports book, given all the circumstances, of what the difference between the two teams are. The favorite will be listed with a negative spread, while the underdog will have a positive spread. The spread is put in place as a handicap to make the underdog and favorite more equal. For example, Purdue is currently +7.5 against Nebraska meaning a sportsbook would expect Purdue to lose by 7 or 8 points.
Odds and How to read them: The ability to read odds presents a gambler the insight into how a sportsbook or “Vegas” views a particular bet. The most common types of odds on sports bet will range from -105 to -115. -115 odds means that to win $10 dollars, a person would need to bet $11.50. Conversely, if the odds are positive, +115, then a bettor who bets $10 would win $11.50. To calculate ML odds for negative odds, take negative Moneyline odds / (Moneylines odds + 100) * 100 = Implied probability. So, if the odds are -115 then 115/(115+100)*100 = 53.5%.
Betting against the spread: Betting against the spread (“ATS”) means you are taking Purdue +7.5 or Nebraska -7.5. To cover the spread betting on Purdue, Purdue would need to lose by less than 8 or win. If one bets on the Nebraska spread, the Cornhuskers would have to win by more than 7.
Cover: This means a team won ATS. If Nebraska beats Purdue by 2, Nebraska has won the game, but Purdue has covered.
Money line: Money line (“ML”) is the odds given on a particular team just to win outright. Payouts can be significantly more or less than betting the spread. For example, betting on a big favorite to win on ML will not yield a very high return. Conversely, betting on a big underdog to win could sometimes pay out double or even triple your original bet. It all depends on the odds.
Over/Under: Over/unders are a type of bet that refer to how many total points will be scored in a game. For example, if the sportsbook sets an over/under of 49, bettors will bet under if they believe less than 49 points will be scored and vice-versa.
Sharp Bettor: A sharp bettor is a bettor who has shown the ability to turn a profit over the long run. These are generally gamblers that have shown a history of success. Sharp bettors are very useful in identifying value in a particular bet.
Juice: Juice may be the most confusing aspect for new gamblers or those unfamiliar with gambling. In simple terms, juice is the percentage sportsbooks take on a given wager. Sportsbook use juice to make their profit. To do this, odds for a bet with a sports book are normally -115 or -110 for both sides of the spread. This means that to win ten dollars, you would need to be $11.50. That means either way, the sportsbook is gaining a profit because each side is losing $1.50 per bet. This is the juice.
If there is a definition not listed that you think would be helpful, please let me know.
