Welcome to the third year, ninth edition of Covering the Tracks. As fans, we are about to experience arguably the greatest shift in the college football landscape from one season to the next. Last season we saw empty stadiums, shortened schedules, and a reduction in the usual traditions that make college football great. Since then, we have seen a landmark decision from the SCOTUS in the Alston case, NIL rights granted to student-athletes, and a return to normalcy in stadium attendance and tradition (This is not to mention the giant shift in perennial power and greed from the SEC with Texas and Oklahoma but that is for another day; I digress). Through all of this, we have continued to see the massive upswing of gambling popularity as it loses the traditional taboo tag it once had. Even today, the NFL, an extremely anti-gambling organization in the past, has partnered with multiple gaming companies as the official betting partners of the NFL. The growth of gambling and the impact it has on NIL opportunities for student-athletes remains to be seen. We have already seen Barstool Sports, now owned by Penn Gaming, endorse student-athletes, which could be seen as a gambling company endorsing student-athletes. How this will unfold going forward is a massive unknown. But one thing is for sure: sports gambling is here to stay, and it is growing at a rate faster than many believed.
For first-timers, Covering the Tracks is a weekly preview of the upcoming Purdue football game through the lens of the gambling world. Whether you are new to sports gambling or just enjoy reading everything about Purdue football, my hope is this weekly column will provide some sort of entertainment and/or information in anticipation of the Boilers upcoming game. The age-old saying is “Vegas always knows” so even if you are not a gambler, this weekly article hopefully provides you with some insight into how games can be more accurately predicted and previewed by using gambling analysis. All opinions listed throughout the article are my own, and I would advise that you take them with a grain of salt.
If anyone is looking to get into sports gambling, particularly in regards to Purdue, I cannot emphasize the importance of bankroll management and long term success. The biggest mistake new sports gamblers make is failing to properly manage your bankroll. This is a long term game. Do not expect to bat 1.000. Going 60% over an extended period of time is great! Always look for value. I personally take a contrarian approach in my gambling because I believe the public inflates the lines with bias and value is found on the other side. Simple, yet effective. However, there are many different schools of thought and strategies. I encourage you to test them out and find what works. For this article, I will be using my own analysis. Indiana offers multiple online books (DraftKings, PointsBet, FanDuel, etc.). I would encourage you to shop around at different books, take advantage of promotions, and find the best possible lines you can. Value betting is crucial. If you have specific questions, feel free to ask!
Covid made last year one of the oddest in college football history (Is anyone surprised IU had a good season while playing all their games in empty stadiums?). While I expect this year to be closer to normal, it would be naïve to expect 100% normalcy. There very well could still be cases where players are held out of games last minute, or teams have to outright forfeit. Make sure you review the rules of whichever Sportsbook you use to see how they grade plays. Waiting till as close to gametime as possible is recommended for that reason. Hopefully this is not an issue with Purdue due to their stellar vaccination rates, but you never know. Here is to a full season of Purdue football being back, and Ross-Ade being open.
As always, for those unfamiliar with sports gambling terminology, there is a glossary at the end. For this week, we look at the 2021 Michigan State Spartans.
Week 9 RECAP:
Full disclosure, I realize after review I predicted 27-20, but had over 52, this should have been Under 52 as the play. So, spin it however you would like, but column goes 2-1 or 3-0 depending on how you look at it, intent was always under 52. The Boilers cover the 7.5 and win outright on the road in Lincoln, Nebraska. The under hits as the total goes under 52. Wisconsin finally comes through for the column as the Badgers roll Iowa rather easily.
2021 Season ATS Records:
Purdue: 4-4 ATS, Overs are 1-7.
Michigan State: 6-1-1 ATS, Overs are 4-4. Michigan State has been an ATS monster this year failing to cover in only one game this year, ironically enough, Nebraska, by a half point. They pushed against Youngstown State earlier in the year and have been a wagon ATS otherwise.
Current Betting breakdowns as of 9:00am on 11/5/21:
Current spread: Purdue +3 (Opened +3).
1H Spread: Purdue +1.5, O/U 24.5
Over/Under: 53.5 (Opened 52)
Bets: 15% on Purdue, 51% on over
Money: 33% on Purdue, 25% on over
Michigan State O/U: 27.5 (Over -125, Under -104)
Purdue O/U: 24.5 (Over -117, Under -113)
Jeff Brohm vs. Michigan State: 0-1, 0-1 ATS.
2021 Futures:
I am editing the futures to just show what the futures were to begin the season. I feel like this will add a level of comparison analysis. Some books have begun to restrict odds on conference winners. I encourage any reader to compare with their book odds, if offered, to compare performance.
ALL ODDS FROM 9/1/201:
To win the Big Ten Title Game: Purdue is 60/1.
To win the Big Ten West Division: Purdue is 25/1.
To win the National Championship: Purdue is 200/1.
Purdue’s season win total is set at O/U 5 wins. The Over is slightly favored at -125, while under is +105. BOOM. With the win against Nebraska, the over cannot lose. The Boilers need just one win to hit over on their total. This is significant for a lot of reasons. Vegas normally does a pretty good job with their totals, and I believe the totals can be used as a barometer for the season. Pushing the over, with four games left, is a really good job by this Boilermaker team.
GK first overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft: 60/1 to start, some books now at 30/1.
Trend Analysis for Michigan State:
· Purdue under Brohm is 7-4 ATS as a home underdog. The “Fade Brohm as a favorite and back as a dog” narrative once again proves true with the Boilers heading into the hostile territory that is Lincoln, Nebraska.
· Purdue is 11-11 ATS after a win under Brohm. Purdue is 1-3 ATS this year after a win, with the only cover coming against UConn.
· Under Brohm, Purdue is 9-3 ATS against ranked opponents. Purdue loses these games on average by 3.7 points, but covers on average by 9.9 points.
· After a win, the over is 8-14 in Purdue games under Brohm. This season, overs are 1-3 after a win.
· When Purdue is a home underdog under CJB, the over is 5-5-1. The only instance of Purdue being a home underdog this year, the over hit as the Badgers put up 30 on the Boilers.
· When Purdue plays a ranked opponent under CJB, the over is 3-9. The under hit both against Notre Dame and Iowa this season.
· Under Mel Tucker, Michigan State is 2-0 ATS as an away favorite. Both covers occurred this season with the Spartans covering against IU and Rutgers. Surprisingly, MSU was an underdog at NW to start the season, which seems laughable in hindsight.
· After a win under Coach Tucker, Michigan State is 5-3-1 ATS under Mel Tucker. The Spartans win these games on average by 1.6 and cover on average by .4 points.
· Michigan State is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against Purdue. The only cover being with Rocky Lombardi (who looked great for NIU last night) after Purdue beat Ohio State.
· As an away favorite under Coach Tucker, the over is 0-2. The under has hit on average by 9.8 points.
· Under Coach Tucker, overs are 7-5 ATS in games when MSU plays against a conference opponent.
· The under has hit in four of MSU’s last six games.
· Four of the last six times MSU has visited Ross-Ade, the over has hit.
Miscellaneous Factors:
· Spoilermakers. The Boilers come into this game with their Spoilermaker nicknaming really getting some spotlight. After the whooping Purdue put on Iowa, many have circled this game as another opportunity for the Boilers to pull off a win against a top 5 team. There is certainly some concern that this nickname is too popular right now, and it may prevent the Spartans from a total let down spot.
· Little Brother? Michigan loses another massive game under Harbaugh, this time coming against “little brother” MSU. MSU continues to have success over the Wolverines, but this one certainly felt different with both teams undefeated, and MSU pulling off a massive comeback behind the legs of Kenneth Walker III. This presents a very optimal let down spot for the Spartans, a bit of a role reversal from the 2018 game.
· Only one Michigan State Spartan has Indiana ties. Kyle King, the former New Pal standout, returns to Indiana.
· Bowling Season. Purdue is one win away from getting back to a Bowl game for the first time since 2018. In a season projected with five wins, the next win will be monumental for the team to get back to postseason play.
· Weather once again looks amazing for early November. Game time temperature set for mid 50’s.
Gambling Analysis:
Numbers: Thank you Purdue for playing a big game again. We are seeing some early action on this game thanks to Purdue hosting a top five team. Not surprisingly, the money and bets are all over Michigan State. This will be discussed in more depth with the situational section. The good news from a numbers standpoint is that the spread has not moved. 85% of the bets have poured in on MSU, and the line has held strong at 3. To me, this tells me Vegas is perfectly comfortable taking action on MSU at that +3 number. There has been sharp action on Purdue as evidenced by the more money being on Purdue than bets on Purdue. There is an 18% sharp buy, but the money % for Purdue is still under 40, which is a good sign, in my opinion. There is a significant more amount of money on the Under than bets. However, I have some concerns here since the amount of money on the over is so significant and skewed. While big money clearly exists on the Under, it is simply too much and I think some sharps will take the over, especially considering that with the move towards the over in the total (52 to 53.5), money has been coming on the Under. EDGE: Purdue, Over
Trends: Everyone say it with me: Jeff Brohm is an underdog against a ranked opponent. That is the trend that matters. Brohm flourishes in this spot. I think there are a couple reasons why. For starters, it is clearly easy to motivate a team in the underdog role, that is universal in sports. However, Brohm has kind of been an underdog his whole life, so I think he really enjoys the role and firing up a team. More importantly, I believe the underdog role allows Brohm to play more aggressively, which is when Purdue is at their best. MIchigan State trends are a little more difficult under Coach Tucker, since our sample size is a year with Covid and then this season. In that short time, Coach Tucker has been impressive covering when supposed to, and getting his guys to show up even in spots a normal team would not. MSU has all the confidence in the world right now, and they should. For me, the Brohm underdog trend is too proven. For the total, the trends clearly scream under. Both these teams have defenses who have played relatively well all season. EDGE: Purdue, Under
Situation: This is the most fascinating situational spot all season. To be honest, I would feel better about Purdue had they lost Saturday. While that may sound silly, think back to Purdue-Iowa after the Minnesota game. A loss to Nebraska and people would be hammering MSU more than they already are. Now, Nebraska is a win that will not really move the needle, but remember, that Nebraska team absolutely should have beat MSU. I do not think the public is down on Purdue, which is what would help the situational spot. However, the public is all over Michigan State in what ended up being the biggest win of the weekend. People from all over the country tuned in to watch the Spartans close a double digit deficit and beat an undefeated Michigan team. Kenneth Walker III became the Heisman favorite in front of everyone. The general public is looking at this game and wondering how the hell MSU is only a three point favorite. I would be lying if I said I was not surprised by the number, but that is a good thing. My only concern from a situational spot, is that Purdue may be too trendy of an upset pick. As mentioned above, Purdue has earned that Spoilermaker reputation. After the O$U win, and then Iowa, it is not unfathomable for the Boilers to be picked to upset another top 5 team. My comfort level is eased solely because of the public money on MSU. I think MSU proved to a lot of people to be legit, and Purdue will end up in a really nice spot. For the total, the public clearly sees this as an under. Both teams have kept teams from scoring, and Purdue has only hit an over once this year when they played Wisconsin. I would lean over for a situational spot only because the public does seem to like the under. EDGE: Purdue, Over
Total Analysis: This is ultimately a battle of Jeff Brohm being an underdog versus is Purdue too known for upsets? This should absolutely be a let down spot for MSU. The Spartans are coming off their biggest win of the season, and have a legitimate shot to win the Big Ten East. Normally, coming into West Lafayette would be the perfect place for MSU to let down. However, Purdue has earned the reputation for spoiling a season, so I would think MSU would be able to get up for this game. I do not see it being as much of a let down as one would think. MSU has been a cover machine doing just what is necessary to cover. The public has taken notice, and has backed them accordingly. The sharps seem to be taking action on the 3, and I would be curious to see how the line moves. If Vegas takes this number to 2.5, I think that is a really good sign because the books clearly want as much MSU money as they can get. If it moves to 3.5, I would be slightly concerned, but it could be an instance of the books hedging liability. This will come down to the Purdue offense vs. the MSU defense. The Purdue defense should be able to hold its own, but I do expect MSU to have a couple big plays. The young QB has been really good taking shots to Reed and Nailor, who are excellent deep ball threats. This becomes pretty easy when teams have to stack the box to stop the best statistical running back in the country. I think this game has sneaky shootout potential, and the Boilers will need to convert red zone opportunities. The trends, situational spot, and numbers all point to Jeff Brohm as a dog. This may be going to the well too many times, but I like the Boilers here.
Prediction: 31-27 Boilers. The win last week was a big confidence boost for the Boilers. I was thoroughly impressed with the usage of Anthrop, and I would expect Purdue to continue to open a playbook and take shots against the Spartans. AOC has been impressive in the pocket, and I think David Bell could really have a big game. Michigan really had success against this defense in the air, and I think Purdue could exploit some of the same weaknesses. I trust Jeff Brohm as an underdog. I trust Purdue with a little momentum.
Official Plays 7-9: Purdue +3, Over 53.5, Purdue ML. I am heading into tomorrow with baited skepticism. Purdue wins and the Big Ten West, and East, get real interesting. There is significant value in Purdue, and I think the let down spot, while saturated with the Purdue reputation, is still relevant. I will follow the sharp money and hope that Purdue comes out aggressive.
Bonus. Plug Your Nose and Hit “Place Bet” of the Week: WVU +3.5. The Mountaineers are in a similar spot to Purdue as they are only 3.5 underdogs to a 7-1 Oklahoma State team. This line stinks to me, and I am a little surprised WVU is only a 3.5 point dog. If you really want a gross bet, the total in Army vs. Air Force is 37.5. I would take that under, set and forget it.
Glossary:
The spread: Arguably the most used term in all of gambling, the spread refers to the handicapped line set by the sportsbook. For those new to gambling, think of the spread as a prediction by the sports book, given all the circumstances, of what the difference between the two teams are. The favorite will be listed with a negative spread, while the underdog will have a positive spread. The spread is put in place as a handicap to make the underdog and favorite more equal. For example, Purdue is currently +3 against Michigan State meaning a sportsbook would expect Purdue to lose by 3 points.
Odds and How to read them: The ability to read odds presents a gambler the insight into how a sportsbook or “Vegas” views a particular bet. The most common types of odds on sports bet will range from -105 to -115. -115 odds means that to win $10 dollars, a person would need to bet $11.50. Conversely, if the odds are positive, +115, then a bettor who bets $10 would win $11.50. To calculate ML odds for negative odds, take negative Moneyline odds / (Moneylines odds + 100) * 100 = Implied probability. So, if the odds are -115 then 115/(115+100)*100 = 53.5%.
Betting against the spread: Betting against the spread (“ATS”) means you are taking Purdue +3 or Michigan State -3. To cover the spread betting on Purdue, Purdue would need to lose by less than 3 or win. If one bets on the Michigan State spread, the Spartans would have to win by more than 3.
Cover: This means a team won ATS. If Michigan State beats Purdue by 2, Michigan State has won the game, but Purdue has covered.
Money line: Money line (“ML”) is the odds given on a particular team just to win outright. Payouts can be significantly more or less than betting the spread. For example, betting on a big favorite to win on ML will not yield a very high return. Conversely, betting on a big underdog to win could sometimes pay out double or even triple your original bet. It all depends on the odds.
Over/Under: Over/unders are a type of bet that refer to how many total points will be scored in a game. For example, if the sportsbook sets an over/under of 49, bettors will bet under if they believe less than 49 points will be scored and vice-versa.
Sharp Bettor: A sharp bettor is a bettor who has shown the ability to turn a profit over the long run. These are generally gamblers that have shown a history of success. Sharp bettors are very useful in identifying value in a particular bet.
Juice: Juice may be the most confusing aspect for new gamblers or those unfamiliar with gambling. In simple terms, juice is the percentage sportsbooks take on a given wager. Sportsbook use juice to make their profit. To do this, odds for a bet with a sports book are normally -115 or -110 for both sides of the spread. This means that to win ten dollars, you would need to be $11.50. That means either way, the sportsbook is gaining a profit because each side is losing $1.50 per bet. This is the juice.
If there is a definition not listed that you think would be helpful, please let me know.
For first-timers, Covering the Tracks is a weekly preview of the upcoming Purdue football game through the lens of the gambling world. Whether you are new to sports gambling or just enjoy reading everything about Purdue football, my hope is this weekly column will provide some sort of entertainment and/or information in anticipation of the Boilers upcoming game. The age-old saying is “Vegas always knows” so even if you are not a gambler, this weekly article hopefully provides you with some insight into how games can be more accurately predicted and previewed by using gambling analysis. All opinions listed throughout the article are my own, and I would advise that you take them with a grain of salt.
If anyone is looking to get into sports gambling, particularly in regards to Purdue, I cannot emphasize the importance of bankroll management and long term success. The biggest mistake new sports gamblers make is failing to properly manage your bankroll. This is a long term game. Do not expect to bat 1.000. Going 60% over an extended period of time is great! Always look for value. I personally take a contrarian approach in my gambling because I believe the public inflates the lines with bias and value is found on the other side. Simple, yet effective. However, there are many different schools of thought and strategies. I encourage you to test them out and find what works. For this article, I will be using my own analysis. Indiana offers multiple online books (DraftKings, PointsBet, FanDuel, etc.). I would encourage you to shop around at different books, take advantage of promotions, and find the best possible lines you can. Value betting is crucial. If you have specific questions, feel free to ask!
Covid made last year one of the oddest in college football history (Is anyone surprised IU had a good season while playing all their games in empty stadiums?). While I expect this year to be closer to normal, it would be naïve to expect 100% normalcy. There very well could still be cases where players are held out of games last minute, or teams have to outright forfeit. Make sure you review the rules of whichever Sportsbook you use to see how they grade plays. Waiting till as close to gametime as possible is recommended for that reason. Hopefully this is not an issue with Purdue due to their stellar vaccination rates, but you never know. Here is to a full season of Purdue football being back, and Ross-Ade being open.
As always, for those unfamiliar with sports gambling terminology, there is a glossary at the end. For this week, we look at the 2021 Michigan State Spartans.
Week 9 RECAP:
Full disclosure, I realize after review I predicted 27-20, but had over 52, this should have been Under 52 as the play. So, spin it however you would like, but column goes 2-1 or 3-0 depending on how you look at it, intent was always under 52. The Boilers cover the 7.5 and win outright on the road in Lincoln, Nebraska. The under hits as the total goes under 52. Wisconsin finally comes through for the column as the Badgers roll Iowa rather easily.
2021 Season ATS Records:
Purdue: 4-4 ATS, Overs are 1-7.
Michigan State: 6-1-1 ATS, Overs are 4-4. Michigan State has been an ATS monster this year failing to cover in only one game this year, ironically enough, Nebraska, by a half point. They pushed against Youngstown State earlier in the year and have been a wagon ATS otherwise.
Current Betting breakdowns as of 9:00am on 11/5/21:
Current spread: Purdue +3 (Opened +3).
1H Spread: Purdue +1.5, O/U 24.5
Over/Under: 53.5 (Opened 52)
Bets: 15% on Purdue, 51% on over
Money: 33% on Purdue, 25% on over
Michigan State O/U: 27.5 (Over -125, Under -104)
Purdue O/U: 24.5 (Over -117, Under -113)
Jeff Brohm vs. Michigan State: 0-1, 0-1 ATS.
2021 Futures:
I am editing the futures to just show what the futures were to begin the season. I feel like this will add a level of comparison analysis. Some books have begun to restrict odds on conference winners. I encourage any reader to compare with their book odds, if offered, to compare performance.
ALL ODDS FROM 9/1/201:
To win the Big Ten Title Game: Purdue is 60/1.
To win the Big Ten West Division: Purdue is 25/1.
To win the National Championship: Purdue is 200/1.
Purdue’s season win total is set at O/U 5 wins. The Over is slightly favored at -125, while under is +105. BOOM. With the win against Nebraska, the over cannot lose. The Boilers need just one win to hit over on their total. This is significant for a lot of reasons. Vegas normally does a pretty good job with their totals, and I believe the totals can be used as a barometer for the season. Pushing the over, with four games left, is a really good job by this Boilermaker team.
GK first overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft: 60/1 to start, some books now at 30/1.
Trend Analysis for Michigan State:
· Purdue under Brohm is 7-4 ATS as a home underdog. The “Fade Brohm as a favorite and back as a dog” narrative once again proves true with the Boilers heading into the hostile territory that is Lincoln, Nebraska.
· Purdue is 11-11 ATS after a win under Brohm. Purdue is 1-3 ATS this year after a win, with the only cover coming against UConn.
· Under Brohm, Purdue is 9-3 ATS against ranked opponents. Purdue loses these games on average by 3.7 points, but covers on average by 9.9 points.
· After a win, the over is 8-14 in Purdue games under Brohm. This season, overs are 1-3 after a win.
· When Purdue is a home underdog under CJB, the over is 5-5-1. The only instance of Purdue being a home underdog this year, the over hit as the Badgers put up 30 on the Boilers.
· When Purdue plays a ranked opponent under CJB, the over is 3-9. The under hit both against Notre Dame and Iowa this season.
· Under Mel Tucker, Michigan State is 2-0 ATS as an away favorite. Both covers occurred this season with the Spartans covering against IU and Rutgers. Surprisingly, MSU was an underdog at NW to start the season, which seems laughable in hindsight.
· After a win under Coach Tucker, Michigan State is 5-3-1 ATS under Mel Tucker. The Spartans win these games on average by 1.6 and cover on average by .4 points.
· Michigan State is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against Purdue. The only cover being with Rocky Lombardi (who looked great for NIU last night) after Purdue beat Ohio State.
· As an away favorite under Coach Tucker, the over is 0-2. The under has hit on average by 9.8 points.
· Under Coach Tucker, overs are 7-5 ATS in games when MSU plays against a conference opponent.
· The under has hit in four of MSU’s last six games.
· Four of the last six times MSU has visited Ross-Ade, the over has hit.
Miscellaneous Factors:
· Spoilermakers. The Boilers come into this game with their Spoilermaker nicknaming really getting some spotlight. After the whooping Purdue put on Iowa, many have circled this game as another opportunity for the Boilers to pull off a win against a top 5 team. There is certainly some concern that this nickname is too popular right now, and it may prevent the Spartans from a total let down spot.
· Little Brother? Michigan loses another massive game under Harbaugh, this time coming against “little brother” MSU. MSU continues to have success over the Wolverines, but this one certainly felt different with both teams undefeated, and MSU pulling off a massive comeback behind the legs of Kenneth Walker III. This presents a very optimal let down spot for the Spartans, a bit of a role reversal from the 2018 game.
· Only one Michigan State Spartan has Indiana ties. Kyle King, the former New Pal standout, returns to Indiana.
· Bowling Season. Purdue is one win away from getting back to a Bowl game for the first time since 2018. In a season projected with five wins, the next win will be monumental for the team to get back to postseason play.
· Weather once again looks amazing for early November. Game time temperature set for mid 50’s.
Gambling Analysis:
Numbers: Thank you Purdue for playing a big game again. We are seeing some early action on this game thanks to Purdue hosting a top five team. Not surprisingly, the money and bets are all over Michigan State. This will be discussed in more depth with the situational section. The good news from a numbers standpoint is that the spread has not moved. 85% of the bets have poured in on MSU, and the line has held strong at 3. To me, this tells me Vegas is perfectly comfortable taking action on MSU at that +3 number. There has been sharp action on Purdue as evidenced by the more money being on Purdue than bets on Purdue. There is an 18% sharp buy, but the money % for Purdue is still under 40, which is a good sign, in my opinion. There is a significant more amount of money on the Under than bets. However, I have some concerns here since the amount of money on the over is so significant and skewed. While big money clearly exists on the Under, it is simply too much and I think some sharps will take the over, especially considering that with the move towards the over in the total (52 to 53.5), money has been coming on the Under. EDGE: Purdue, Over
Trends: Everyone say it with me: Jeff Brohm is an underdog against a ranked opponent. That is the trend that matters. Brohm flourishes in this spot. I think there are a couple reasons why. For starters, it is clearly easy to motivate a team in the underdog role, that is universal in sports. However, Brohm has kind of been an underdog his whole life, so I think he really enjoys the role and firing up a team. More importantly, I believe the underdog role allows Brohm to play more aggressively, which is when Purdue is at their best. MIchigan State trends are a little more difficult under Coach Tucker, since our sample size is a year with Covid and then this season. In that short time, Coach Tucker has been impressive covering when supposed to, and getting his guys to show up even in spots a normal team would not. MSU has all the confidence in the world right now, and they should. For me, the Brohm underdog trend is too proven. For the total, the trends clearly scream under. Both these teams have defenses who have played relatively well all season. EDGE: Purdue, Under
Situation: This is the most fascinating situational spot all season. To be honest, I would feel better about Purdue had they lost Saturday. While that may sound silly, think back to Purdue-Iowa after the Minnesota game. A loss to Nebraska and people would be hammering MSU more than they already are. Now, Nebraska is a win that will not really move the needle, but remember, that Nebraska team absolutely should have beat MSU. I do not think the public is down on Purdue, which is what would help the situational spot. However, the public is all over Michigan State in what ended up being the biggest win of the weekend. People from all over the country tuned in to watch the Spartans close a double digit deficit and beat an undefeated Michigan team. Kenneth Walker III became the Heisman favorite in front of everyone. The general public is looking at this game and wondering how the hell MSU is only a three point favorite. I would be lying if I said I was not surprised by the number, but that is a good thing. My only concern from a situational spot, is that Purdue may be too trendy of an upset pick. As mentioned above, Purdue has earned that Spoilermaker reputation. After the O$U win, and then Iowa, it is not unfathomable for the Boilers to be picked to upset another top 5 team. My comfort level is eased solely because of the public money on MSU. I think MSU proved to a lot of people to be legit, and Purdue will end up in a really nice spot. For the total, the public clearly sees this as an under. Both teams have kept teams from scoring, and Purdue has only hit an over once this year when they played Wisconsin. I would lean over for a situational spot only because the public does seem to like the under. EDGE: Purdue, Over
Total Analysis: This is ultimately a battle of Jeff Brohm being an underdog versus is Purdue too known for upsets? This should absolutely be a let down spot for MSU. The Spartans are coming off their biggest win of the season, and have a legitimate shot to win the Big Ten East. Normally, coming into West Lafayette would be the perfect place for MSU to let down. However, Purdue has earned the reputation for spoiling a season, so I would think MSU would be able to get up for this game. I do not see it being as much of a let down as one would think. MSU has been a cover machine doing just what is necessary to cover. The public has taken notice, and has backed them accordingly. The sharps seem to be taking action on the 3, and I would be curious to see how the line moves. If Vegas takes this number to 2.5, I think that is a really good sign because the books clearly want as much MSU money as they can get. If it moves to 3.5, I would be slightly concerned, but it could be an instance of the books hedging liability. This will come down to the Purdue offense vs. the MSU defense. The Purdue defense should be able to hold its own, but I do expect MSU to have a couple big plays. The young QB has been really good taking shots to Reed and Nailor, who are excellent deep ball threats. This becomes pretty easy when teams have to stack the box to stop the best statistical running back in the country. I think this game has sneaky shootout potential, and the Boilers will need to convert red zone opportunities. The trends, situational spot, and numbers all point to Jeff Brohm as a dog. This may be going to the well too many times, but I like the Boilers here.
Prediction: 31-27 Boilers. The win last week was a big confidence boost for the Boilers. I was thoroughly impressed with the usage of Anthrop, and I would expect Purdue to continue to open a playbook and take shots against the Spartans. AOC has been impressive in the pocket, and I think David Bell could really have a big game. Michigan really had success against this defense in the air, and I think Purdue could exploit some of the same weaknesses. I trust Jeff Brohm as an underdog. I trust Purdue with a little momentum.
Official Plays 7-9: Purdue +3, Over 53.5, Purdue ML. I am heading into tomorrow with baited skepticism. Purdue wins and the Big Ten West, and East, get real interesting. There is significant value in Purdue, and I think the let down spot, while saturated with the Purdue reputation, is still relevant. I will follow the sharp money and hope that Purdue comes out aggressive.
Bonus. Plug Your Nose and Hit “Place Bet” of the Week: WVU +3.5. The Mountaineers are in a similar spot to Purdue as they are only 3.5 underdogs to a 7-1 Oklahoma State team. This line stinks to me, and I am a little surprised WVU is only a 3.5 point dog. If you really want a gross bet, the total in Army vs. Air Force is 37.5. I would take that under, set and forget it.
Glossary:
The spread: Arguably the most used term in all of gambling, the spread refers to the handicapped line set by the sportsbook. For those new to gambling, think of the spread as a prediction by the sports book, given all the circumstances, of what the difference between the two teams are. The favorite will be listed with a negative spread, while the underdog will have a positive spread. The spread is put in place as a handicap to make the underdog and favorite more equal. For example, Purdue is currently +3 against Michigan State meaning a sportsbook would expect Purdue to lose by 3 points.
Odds and How to read them: The ability to read odds presents a gambler the insight into how a sportsbook or “Vegas” views a particular bet. The most common types of odds on sports bet will range from -105 to -115. -115 odds means that to win $10 dollars, a person would need to bet $11.50. Conversely, if the odds are positive, +115, then a bettor who bets $10 would win $11.50. To calculate ML odds for negative odds, take negative Moneyline odds / (Moneylines odds + 100) * 100 = Implied probability. So, if the odds are -115 then 115/(115+100)*100 = 53.5%.
Betting against the spread: Betting against the spread (“ATS”) means you are taking Purdue +3 or Michigan State -3. To cover the spread betting on Purdue, Purdue would need to lose by less than 3 or win. If one bets on the Michigan State spread, the Spartans would have to win by more than 3.
Cover: This means a team won ATS. If Michigan State beats Purdue by 2, Michigan State has won the game, but Purdue has covered.
Money line: Money line (“ML”) is the odds given on a particular team just to win outright. Payouts can be significantly more or less than betting the spread. For example, betting on a big favorite to win on ML will not yield a very high return. Conversely, betting on a big underdog to win could sometimes pay out double or even triple your original bet. It all depends on the odds.
Over/Under: Over/unders are a type of bet that refer to how many total points will be scored in a game. For example, if the sportsbook sets an over/under of 49, bettors will bet under if they believe less than 49 points will be scored and vice-versa.
Sharp Bettor: A sharp bettor is a bettor who has shown the ability to turn a profit over the long run. These are generally gamblers that have shown a history of success. Sharp bettors are very useful in identifying value in a particular bet.
Juice: Juice may be the most confusing aspect for new gamblers or those unfamiliar with gambling. In simple terms, juice is the percentage sportsbooks take on a given wager. Sportsbook use juice to make their profit. To do this, odds for a bet with a sports book are normally -115 or -110 for both sides of the spread. This means that to win ten dollars, you would need to be $11.50. That means either way, the sportsbook is gaining a profit because each side is losing $1.50 per bet. This is the juice.
If there is a definition not listed that you think would be helpful, please let me know.
