Welcome to the third year, fourth edition of Covering the Tracks. As fans, we are about to experience arguably the greatest shift in the college football landscape from one season to the next. Last season we saw empty stadiums, shortened schedules, and a reduction in the usual traditions that make college football great. Since then, we have seen a landmark decision from the SCOTUS in the Alston case, NIL rights granted to student-athletes, and a return to normalcy in stadium attendance and tradition (This is not to mention the giant shift in perennial power and greed from the SEC with Texas and Oklahoma but that is for another day; I digress). Through all of this, we have continued to see the massive upswing of gambling popularity as it loses the traditional taboo tag it once had. Even today, the NFL, an extremely anti-gambling organization in the past, has partnered with multiple gaming companies as the official betting partners of the NFL. The growth of gambling and the impact it has on NIL opportunities for student-athletes remains to be seen. We have already seen Barstool Sports, now owned by Penn Gaming, endorse student-athletes, which could be seen as a gambling company endorsing student-athletes. How this will unfold going forward is a massive unknown. But one thing is for sure: sports gambling is here to stay, and it is growing at a rate faster than many believed.
For first-timers, Covering the Tracks is a weekly preview of the upcoming Purdue football game through the lens of the gambling world. Whether you are new to sports gambling or just enjoy reading everything about Purdue football, my hope is this weekly column will provide some sort of entertainment and/or information in anticipation of the Boilers upcoming game. The age-old saying is “Vegas always knows” so even if you are not a gambler, this weekly article hopefully provides you with some insight into how games can be more accurately predicted and previewed by using gambling analysis. All opinions listed throughout the article are my own, and I would advise that you take them with a grain of salt.
If anyone is looking to get into sports gambling, particularly in regards to Purdue, I cannot emphasize the importance of bankroll management and long term success. The biggest mistake new sports gamblers make is failing to properly manage your bankroll. This is a long term game. Do not expect to bat 1.000. Going 60% over an extended period of time is great! Always look for value. I personally take a contrarian approach in my gambling because I believe the public inflates the lines with bias and value is found on the other side. Simple, yet effective. However, there are many different schools of thought and strategies. I encourage you to test them out and find what works. For this article, I will be using my own analysis. Indiana offers multiple online books (DraftKings, PointsBet, FanDuel, etc.). I would encourage you to shop around at different books, take advantage of promotions, and find the best possible lines you can. Value betting is crucial. If you have specific questions, feel free to ask!
Covid made last year one of the oddest in college football history (Is anyone surprised IU had a good season while playing all their games in empty stadiums?). While I expect this year to be closer to normal, it would be naïve to expect 100% normalcy. There very well could still be cases where players are held out of games last minute, or teams have to outright forfeit. Make sure you review the rules of whichever Sportsbook you use to see how they grade plays. Waiting till as close to game time as possible is recommended for that reason. Hopefully this is not an issue with Purdue due to their stellar vaccination rates, but you never know. Here is to a full season of Purdue football being back, and Ross-Ade being open.
As always, for those unfamiliar with sports gambling terminology, there is a glossary at the end. For this week, we look at the 2021 Illinois Fighting Illini.
Week 3 RECAP:
The Column goes 1-2 as the Boilers fail to cover +7.5, the total goes under, and the Bearcats cover over IU. The Blow your nose pick in IU arguably covers last week (thank God UC pulled that out) if not for an egregiously bad targeting call. Not rooting for a fair game, just rooting against IU. This week Purdue certainly had its chances to score and score later to cover the number but failed to do so. Definitely been a tough stretch as of late, but that is the way she goes.
2021 Season ATS Records:
Purdue: 2-1 ATS, Overs are 0-3.
Illinois: 2-2 ATS, Overs are 1-3. Illinois has covered in a win against Nebraska and a loss against Maryland, while failing to cover against UTSA and Virginia.
Current Betting breakdowns as of 9:00am on 9/24/21:
Current spread: Purdue -11 (Opened -10.5),
1H Spread: Purdue -6.5, O/U 27.5
Over/Under: 53 (Opened 56.5)
Bets: 62% on Purdue, 48% on over
Money: 22% on Purdue, NA% on over
Illinois O/U: 20.5 (Over -105, Under -125)
Purdue O/U: 32.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
Jeff Brohm vs. Illinois: 3-1, 2-2 ATS.
2021 Futures:
New this year I want to address future bets for Purdue. For those unfamiliar, future bets are bets made regarding things like division or conference winner, heisman winner, and national champion. It is fairly self explanatory. The listed odds are the odds at the start of the season. I will update them week to week. I am keeping Purdue’s odds at the start of the season for comparison purposes.
Currently:
To win the Big Ten Title Game: Purdue is 60/1. Ohio State is the current favorite at -140. As of Week 4, Purdue’s odds are at 80/1.
To win the Big Ten West Division: Purdue is 25/1. Iowa is the current favorite at +105. As of Week 4, Purdue’s odds are at 20/1.
To win the National Championship: Purdue is 200/1. Alabama is the current favorite at +175. As of Week 4, Purdue’s odds are at 500/1.
Purdue’s season win total is set at O/U 5 wins. The Over is slightly favored at -125, while under is +105. As of Week 4, Purdue is going exactly as expected with two wins to start and a loss to ND.
Note: David Bell, or any other Purdue player for that matter, is not listed on the Heisman odds. I think this is a coward move by the books, but, I also realize my bias and understand that the Heisman has become more of a team award, and if your team is not good enough, you will not be considered. With that being said, David Bell is the best receiver in the country and deserves odds.
Trend Analysis for Illinois:
· Purdue under Brohm is 7-8 ATS as a home favorite. I am starting to wonder about the whole “Fade Brohm as a favorite and back as a dog” narrative. While we only have a three game sample size, the Boilers have covered both games in which they have been a favorite and failed to cover in the Brohm dream spot as a road underdog against a ranked team. Interestingly enough, Purdue has averaged a 2.7-point margin of victory but failed to cover on average by three points. So while the Boilers may not be covering as home dogs, they are still winning.
· Purdue is 2-5 ATS when it has a rest disadvantage. This trend needs qualification. Rest disadvantage is fairly literal and can mean a day, however, the intent of this stat is normally to judge how teams perform off bye weeks and against teams off bye weeks. Illinois is not coming off a bye. Instead, the Illini played a Friday night game giving them an extra day of rest and preparation. How much will one day matter? Hard to say. Purdue played Rutgers last year on an extra day of rest and got beat. Purdue played Illinois last year when Illinois had a Friday night game the week prior. Purdue won that game by seven but failed to cover. Illinois also had ample opportunity late to potentially force OT.
· Purdue is 13-9 ATS in games after a loss under Jeff Brohm. This trend was much stronger prior to last year as the Boilers did not cover after a single loss last season. Factoring 2020 out, Brohm teams have shown fairly good resilience in bouncing back.
· In games where Purdue is a home favorite under Brohm, the total has gone over nine out of the last fifteen games. The total went under in the Oregon State game where Purdue covered as a home favorite.
· After a loss, the total has gone over in 12 of the last 22 games under Brohm. The over has hit on average by .7 points. This number improved significantly last year with the over cashing frequently late last year.
· As an away underdog, Illinois is 0-1 ATS under Bret Bielema. The Illini lost to Virginia by 28 and failed to cover.
· After an Illinois loss under Bielema, Illinois is 1-1 ATS. Illinois has lost these games on average by 15.5 points and has failed to cover on average by 6.8 points. This is a little skewed in nature due to the margin of victory by Virginia.
· Under Coach Bielema, overs are 0-1 when Illinois is an away underdog. The total went under in the Virginia game by 1 point.
· The over is 0-2 under Bielema after a loss by the Fighting Illini. The under has hit on average by 12.8 points.
Miscellaneous Factors:
· Adversity Strikes. The Boilers face their first big adversity test of the year after a loss to Notre Dame and a game without their two best wide receivers so far this year. Bluntly, this team did not handle adversity well at all last year. After the call against Minnesota, the Boilers absolutely folded. Purdue enters this game as a double digit favorite, and while this is the first test of adversity, it will be interesting to see how the Boilers have grown since last year. This is the perfect spot to rebound.
· Bret Bielema has never lost to Purdue in his career. While at Wisconsin, Bielema went 5-0 against the Boilers with his smallest margin of victory coming in a 24-3 win in 2006.
· QB Controversy. In a head-scratching move from a timing standpoint, Jeff Brohm decided to pull Jack in favor of AOC during the fourth quarter of the Notre Dame game. On Monday, Jeff affirmed that Jack would remain the starter. There is some degree of uncertainty in regards to how much this move will impact Jack. The timing of the move seemed like a mistake and was a clear vote of non-confidence for Jack, who did not play horrendously (unless the significant check downs were his doing). I have significant concerns of this turning into a Sindelar/Blough situation where Plummer plays afraid to make mistakes with AOC breathing down his neck.
· Rivalry Round II. After a battle against in-state rival Notre Dame, the Boilers are back at it with another trophy at stake. The Boilers have had relative success under Brohm against the Illini, with the only loss coming in a horrendous rain game in 2017.
· Avon, Indiana, stand up. Brandon Peters makes his prodigal return to Indiana. The Avon Oriole will make his first start at Purdue after his transfer from Michigan two years ago. Expect a big Avon showing to root for their guy.
· Rose Bowl Recognition. Purdue will be honoring the 2001 Rose Bowl Team at the game this Saturday. Drew Brees will make his second appearance in front of the team this year, albeit as a fan and alumni, and not through his work channels at NBC. Purdue performed well when Jim “Don’t Call me Chris” Everett pumped the team up prior to Oregon State, and one can only imagine what Drew and the boys can do pregame. Fun fact, the last time Drew Brees led “Shout” was in a win and cover against Nebraska in 2019. David Bell probably has some fond memories of that fourth quarter.
· Welcome Back, Terrance Jamison. For the second straight week, the Boilers face another former coach, although this time it is a little more fresh. Terrance Jamison left this past season to become the Illinois defensive line coach. Purdue seemed to have lucked its way into Mark Hagen as a result, wondering if Terrance truly left on his own accord. If anyone understands George Karlaftis, it is probably Terrance. I am curious how much he will help game plan against Purdue’s current D Line, while also having a pretty good understanding of the Purdue O-Line.
· Weather looks incredible. High 60’s with almost zero chance of rain in the forecast. Remember, Brohm’s only loss to Illinois came in the rain.
· Mike Epstein still has eligibility? The only player that I am shocked to still see on the Illinois Roster. I graduated from Purdue in 2016 and I am fairly certain Mike was on the Illini my entire college career. Starting to feel like Mike Epstein is a Carlyle Holiday all over again. Here is to hoping he has a rather timid day and the Boilers shut him down.
Gambling Analysis:
Numbers: The numbers are a little wonky due to the limited sample size of bets placed. This is certainly an under the radar game and I do not expect to see action really heat up until about 2pm on Saturday. While Purdue is bringing in more bet tickets, Illinois is controlling 72% of the money. Normally, this would represent a 31% differential in Illinois’ favor. However, I am skeptical of the skewed numbers given the sample size. Additionally, it does look like there are some more sharp bettors backing Purdue despite the numbers. The spread has moved a half point since open which does not tell us much. The biggest glaring number from an analytics standpoint is red zone efficiency. Illinois is a top 5 offense in the country when they enter the redzone. Purdue is a bottom 15 defense when teams enter the redzone. Purdue will need to try and limit field goals when Illinois makes trips, as that has been the one area the Illinois offense has produced in all season. The ticket percentages on the over are a little concerning too. While there is no information regarding the money bet on the total (small sample size too) a majority of the bets are on the over. EDGE: Purdue spread due to known sharp money, the Under due to high bet percentage and some small sharp action.
Trends: Are trends dead? Short answer: maybe! Long answer: I have beat the “fade Brohm as a favorite, back Brohm as a dog” narrative into the ground. It has led us fairly consistently through 2019 and 2020. So far in 2021, the trends have been the strongest indicator of what NOT to bet.
Week 1: Trends say Beavers cover and the over.
Outcome: Boilers cover and the total goes under.
Week 2: Trends say UConn covers and the over.
Outcome: Boilers cover and the total goes under.
Week 3: Trends say Purdue covers and the over.
Outcome: Notre Dame covers and the total goes under.
Trends are not indicative of present day information and the smallest change in a team can change a trend. Trends are guidelines, not law. However, trends have done a pretty good job showing predictive performance of coaches over a period of time. Brohm has shown, in a small sample size, that coaches can evolve and buck certain trends. For this week (and maybe luckily for us) the trends are hard to read because of Bielema’s short time at Illinois. While I considered comparing his trends at Arkansas and Wisconsin, I did not feel that would fairly depict his coaching trends. Wisconsin was an inherited program with brand recognition and talent. Arkansas plays SEC competition every week. Illinois is well, Illinois. The talent is not there and really has not been for quite some time. Rashard Mendenhall is not walking through that door. Bret showed his coaching ability to get the team up for Nebraska, and maybe that can be attributed to an entire offseason of preparation. But on a week to week adjustment level, Bret has struggled with a loss to UTSA, a blowout loss to Virginia, and a loss to Maryland on a short week. Edge: Flip a coin. Seriously. Trends are not consistent one way or the other. Maybe it is best they take a week off.
Situation: The situational spots are not really strong one way or the other, similar to the trends. Illinois looked better against an undefeated Maryland and was competitive the whole game. Purdue lost by 14 at Notre Dame in a game that really was closer than the score suggests. The only situational storyline that may get the public going is David Bell and his time in the concussion protocol. David is starting to gain some national name recognition, so the loss may generate some bets to Illinois. Luckily, the Boiler WR room runs deep even with Rice hurt too. Hopefully Illinois native Marcellus Moore can maybe show off some of that speed. EDGE: Non-existent.
Total Analysis:
Prediction: 34-17, Boilers. Not a lot of help from gambling analytics here. The situational spots do not lend well one way or another. The numbers and trends do not either. I will tail the sharp action and pursue the Boilers and the under. This is a game Purdue should win and win handily. I realize Purdue is down at wide receiver, but Illinois is just a bad football team. The worst team in the Big Ten, regardless of the Nebraska game. Illinois gets Charlotte next week, while the Boilers get Minnesota for homecoming. I suppose there could be a little revenge at play on the Boilers’ horizon, but after a loss, I think the Boilers refocus. Purdue has a large amount of players from Illinois, who I am sure will take this game a little personal. The big question mark for me is which Jack Plummer will we get. Purdue has been in this spot before where the Boilers came out and crushed a Maryland team in 2019, with Plummer looking like an all Big Ten performer. I have concerns about his confidence given the actions of Jeff last week. Jack seemed to check down often, and I am unsure of whether or not this was the game plan, or if this was Jack making the decision.
Official Plays: Purdue -11, Under 53. Purdue should get back on track. I expect the defense to continue to show out, even with Cory Trice still out. George should wreck havoc and Jack should return to his normal ways. Look out for the Milton Wright redemption game. If I could bet his over receiving total, I would hammer it. I think he bounces back big.
Bonus. Plug Your Nose and Hit “Place Bet” of the Week (1-2): Wisconsin -6. I do not really understand how Wisconsin is a favorite of this magnitude at Soldier Field. Both fan bases will travel well, but Notre Dame is Notre Dame. They will have more fans there I am sure. Wisconsin has looked relatively unimpressive after an abysmal showing against Penn State Week 1. Notre Dame has not looked much better, but 3-0 is 3-0. Is this bet rooted in bias after last week? Probably, yeah. But this does not make sense I am riding it nonetheless.
Glossary:
The spread: Arguably the most used term in all of gambling, the spread refers to the handicapped line set by the sportsbook. For those new to gambling, think of the spread as a prediction by the sports book, given all the circumstances, of what the difference between the two teams are. The favorite will be listed with a negative spread, while the underdog will have a positive spread. The spread is put in place as a handicap to make the underdog and favorite more equal. For example, Purdue is currently -34 against Illinois meaning a sportsbook would expect Purdue to win by 34.
Odds and How to read them: The ability to read odds presents a gambler the insight into how a sportsbook or “Vegas” views a particular bet. The most common types of odds on sports bet will range from -105 to -115. -115 odds means that to win $10 dollars, a person would need to bet $11.50. Conversely, if the odds are positive, +115, then a bettor who bets $10 would win $11.50. To calculate ML odds for negative odds, take negative Moneyline odds / (Moneyline odds + 100) * 100 = Implied probability. So, if the odds are -115 then 115/(115+100)*100 = 53.5%.
Betting against the spread: Betting against the spread (“ATS”) means you are taking Purdue -34 or Illinois +34. To cover the spread betting on Purdue, Purdue would need to win by 34 or win. If one bets on the Illinois spread, the Fighting Illini would have to win outright or less by less than 34.
Cover: This means a team won ATS. If Purdue beats Illinois by 3, Purdue has won the game, but Illinois has covered.
Money line: Money line (“ML”) is the odds given on a particular team just to win outright. Payouts can be significantly more or less than betting the spread. For example, betting on a big favorite to win on ML will not yield a very high return. Conversely, betting on a big underdog to win could sometimes pay out double or even triple your original bet. It all depends on the odds.
Over/Under: Over/unders are a type of bet that refer to how many total points will be scored in a game. For example, if the sportsbook sets an over/under of 49, bettors will bet under if they believe less than 49 points will be scored and vice-versa.
Sharp Bettor: A sharp bettor is a bettor who has shown the ability to turn a profit over the long run. These are generally gamblers that have shown a history of success. Sharp bettors are very useful in identifying value in a particular bet.
Juice: Juice may be the most confusing aspect for new gamblers or those unfamiliar with gambling. In simple terms, juice is the percentage sportsbooks take on a given wager. Sportsbook use juice to make their profit. To do this, odds for a bet with a sports book are normally -115 or -110 for both sides of the spread. This means that to win ten dollars, you would need to be $11.50. That means either way, the sportsbook is gaining a profit because each side is losing $1.50 per bet. This is the juice.
If there is a definition not listed that you think would be helpful, please let me know.
For first-timers, Covering the Tracks is a weekly preview of the upcoming Purdue football game through the lens of the gambling world. Whether you are new to sports gambling or just enjoy reading everything about Purdue football, my hope is this weekly column will provide some sort of entertainment and/or information in anticipation of the Boilers upcoming game. The age-old saying is “Vegas always knows” so even if you are not a gambler, this weekly article hopefully provides you with some insight into how games can be more accurately predicted and previewed by using gambling analysis. All opinions listed throughout the article are my own, and I would advise that you take them with a grain of salt.
If anyone is looking to get into sports gambling, particularly in regards to Purdue, I cannot emphasize the importance of bankroll management and long term success. The biggest mistake new sports gamblers make is failing to properly manage your bankroll. This is a long term game. Do not expect to bat 1.000. Going 60% over an extended period of time is great! Always look for value. I personally take a contrarian approach in my gambling because I believe the public inflates the lines with bias and value is found on the other side. Simple, yet effective. However, there are many different schools of thought and strategies. I encourage you to test them out and find what works. For this article, I will be using my own analysis. Indiana offers multiple online books (DraftKings, PointsBet, FanDuel, etc.). I would encourage you to shop around at different books, take advantage of promotions, and find the best possible lines you can. Value betting is crucial. If you have specific questions, feel free to ask!
Covid made last year one of the oddest in college football history (Is anyone surprised IU had a good season while playing all their games in empty stadiums?). While I expect this year to be closer to normal, it would be naïve to expect 100% normalcy. There very well could still be cases where players are held out of games last minute, or teams have to outright forfeit. Make sure you review the rules of whichever Sportsbook you use to see how they grade plays. Waiting till as close to game time as possible is recommended for that reason. Hopefully this is not an issue with Purdue due to their stellar vaccination rates, but you never know. Here is to a full season of Purdue football being back, and Ross-Ade being open.
As always, for those unfamiliar with sports gambling terminology, there is a glossary at the end. For this week, we look at the 2021 Illinois Fighting Illini.
Week 3 RECAP:
The Column goes 1-2 as the Boilers fail to cover +7.5, the total goes under, and the Bearcats cover over IU. The Blow your nose pick in IU arguably covers last week (thank God UC pulled that out) if not for an egregiously bad targeting call. Not rooting for a fair game, just rooting against IU. This week Purdue certainly had its chances to score and score later to cover the number but failed to do so. Definitely been a tough stretch as of late, but that is the way she goes.
2021 Season ATS Records:
Purdue: 2-1 ATS, Overs are 0-3.
Illinois: 2-2 ATS, Overs are 1-3. Illinois has covered in a win against Nebraska and a loss against Maryland, while failing to cover against UTSA and Virginia.
Current Betting breakdowns as of 9:00am on 9/24/21:
Current spread: Purdue -11 (Opened -10.5),
1H Spread: Purdue -6.5, O/U 27.5
Over/Under: 53 (Opened 56.5)
Bets: 62% on Purdue, 48% on over
Money: 22% on Purdue, NA% on over
Illinois O/U: 20.5 (Over -105, Under -125)
Purdue O/U: 32.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
Jeff Brohm vs. Illinois: 3-1, 2-2 ATS.
2021 Futures:
New this year I want to address future bets for Purdue. For those unfamiliar, future bets are bets made regarding things like division or conference winner, heisman winner, and national champion. It is fairly self explanatory. The listed odds are the odds at the start of the season. I will update them week to week. I am keeping Purdue’s odds at the start of the season for comparison purposes.
Currently:
To win the Big Ten Title Game: Purdue is 60/1. Ohio State is the current favorite at -140. As of Week 4, Purdue’s odds are at 80/1.
To win the Big Ten West Division: Purdue is 25/1. Iowa is the current favorite at +105. As of Week 4, Purdue’s odds are at 20/1.
To win the National Championship: Purdue is 200/1. Alabama is the current favorite at +175. As of Week 4, Purdue’s odds are at 500/1.
Purdue’s season win total is set at O/U 5 wins. The Over is slightly favored at -125, while under is +105. As of Week 4, Purdue is going exactly as expected with two wins to start and a loss to ND.
Note: David Bell, or any other Purdue player for that matter, is not listed on the Heisman odds. I think this is a coward move by the books, but, I also realize my bias and understand that the Heisman has become more of a team award, and if your team is not good enough, you will not be considered. With that being said, David Bell is the best receiver in the country and deserves odds.
Trend Analysis for Illinois:
· Purdue under Brohm is 7-8 ATS as a home favorite. I am starting to wonder about the whole “Fade Brohm as a favorite and back as a dog” narrative. While we only have a three game sample size, the Boilers have covered both games in which they have been a favorite and failed to cover in the Brohm dream spot as a road underdog against a ranked team. Interestingly enough, Purdue has averaged a 2.7-point margin of victory but failed to cover on average by three points. So while the Boilers may not be covering as home dogs, they are still winning.
· Purdue is 2-5 ATS when it has a rest disadvantage. This trend needs qualification. Rest disadvantage is fairly literal and can mean a day, however, the intent of this stat is normally to judge how teams perform off bye weeks and against teams off bye weeks. Illinois is not coming off a bye. Instead, the Illini played a Friday night game giving them an extra day of rest and preparation. How much will one day matter? Hard to say. Purdue played Rutgers last year on an extra day of rest and got beat. Purdue played Illinois last year when Illinois had a Friday night game the week prior. Purdue won that game by seven but failed to cover. Illinois also had ample opportunity late to potentially force OT.
· Purdue is 13-9 ATS in games after a loss under Jeff Brohm. This trend was much stronger prior to last year as the Boilers did not cover after a single loss last season. Factoring 2020 out, Brohm teams have shown fairly good resilience in bouncing back.
· In games where Purdue is a home favorite under Brohm, the total has gone over nine out of the last fifteen games. The total went under in the Oregon State game where Purdue covered as a home favorite.
· After a loss, the total has gone over in 12 of the last 22 games under Brohm. The over has hit on average by .7 points. This number improved significantly last year with the over cashing frequently late last year.
· As an away underdog, Illinois is 0-1 ATS under Bret Bielema. The Illini lost to Virginia by 28 and failed to cover.
· After an Illinois loss under Bielema, Illinois is 1-1 ATS. Illinois has lost these games on average by 15.5 points and has failed to cover on average by 6.8 points. This is a little skewed in nature due to the margin of victory by Virginia.
· Under Coach Bielema, overs are 0-1 when Illinois is an away underdog. The total went under in the Virginia game by 1 point.
· The over is 0-2 under Bielema after a loss by the Fighting Illini. The under has hit on average by 12.8 points.
Miscellaneous Factors:
· Adversity Strikes. The Boilers face their first big adversity test of the year after a loss to Notre Dame and a game without their two best wide receivers so far this year. Bluntly, this team did not handle adversity well at all last year. After the call against Minnesota, the Boilers absolutely folded. Purdue enters this game as a double digit favorite, and while this is the first test of adversity, it will be interesting to see how the Boilers have grown since last year. This is the perfect spot to rebound.
· Bret Bielema has never lost to Purdue in his career. While at Wisconsin, Bielema went 5-0 against the Boilers with his smallest margin of victory coming in a 24-3 win in 2006.
· QB Controversy. In a head-scratching move from a timing standpoint, Jeff Brohm decided to pull Jack in favor of AOC during the fourth quarter of the Notre Dame game. On Monday, Jeff affirmed that Jack would remain the starter. There is some degree of uncertainty in regards to how much this move will impact Jack. The timing of the move seemed like a mistake and was a clear vote of non-confidence for Jack, who did not play horrendously (unless the significant check downs were his doing). I have significant concerns of this turning into a Sindelar/Blough situation where Plummer plays afraid to make mistakes with AOC breathing down his neck.
· Rivalry Round II. After a battle against in-state rival Notre Dame, the Boilers are back at it with another trophy at stake. The Boilers have had relative success under Brohm against the Illini, with the only loss coming in a horrendous rain game in 2017.
· Avon, Indiana, stand up. Brandon Peters makes his prodigal return to Indiana. The Avon Oriole will make his first start at Purdue after his transfer from Michigan two years ago. Expect a big Avon showing to root for their guy.
· Rose Bowl Recognition. Purdue will be honoring the 2001 Rose Bowl Team at the game this Saturday. Drew Brees will make his second appearance in front of the team this year, albeit as a fan and alumni, and not through his work channels at NBC. Purdue performed well when Jim “Don’t Call me Chris” Everett pumped the team up prior to Oregon State, and one can only imagine what Drew and the boys can do pregame. Fun fact, the last time Drew Brees led “Shout” was in a win and cover against Nebraska in 2019. David Bell probably has some fond memories of that fourth quarter.
· Welcome Back, Terrance Jamison. For the second straight week, the Boilers face another former coach, although this time it is a little more fresh. Terrance Jamison left this past season to become the Illinois defensive line coach. Purdue seemed to have lucked its way into Mark Hagen as a result, wondering if Terrance truly left on his own accord. If anyone understands George Karlaftis, it is probably Terrance. I am curious how much he will help game plan against Purdue’s current D Line, while also having a pretty good understanding of the Purdue O-Line.
· Weather looks incredible. High 60’s with almost zero chance of rain in the forecast. Remember, Brohm’s only loss to Illinois came in the rain.
· Mike Epstein still has eligibility? The only player that I am shocked to still see on the Illinois Roster. I graduated from Purdue in 2016 and I am fairly certain Mike was on the Illini my entire college career. Starting to feel like Mike Epstein is a Carlyle Holiday all over again. Here is to hoping he has a rather timid day and the Boilers shut him down.
Gambling Analysis:
Numbers: The numbers are a little wonky due to the limited sample size of bets placed. This is certainly an under the radar game and I do not expect to see action really heat up until about 2pm on Saturday. While Purdue is bringing in more bet tickets, Illinois is controlling 72% of the money. Normally, this would represent a 31% differential in Illinois’ favor. However, I am skeptical of the skewed numbers given the sample size. Additionally, it does look like there are some more sharp bettors backing Purdue despite the numbers. The spread has moved a half point since open which does not tell us much. The biggest glaring number from an analytics standpoint is red zone efficiency. Illinois is a top 5 offense in the country when they enter the redzone. Purdue is a bottom 15 defense when teams enter the redzone. Purdue will need to try and limit field goals when Illinois makes trips, as that has been the one area the Illinois offense has produced in all season. The ticket percentages on the over are a little concerning too. While there is no information regarding the money bet on the total (small sample size too) a majority of the bets are on the over. EDGE: Purdue spread due to known sharp money, the Under due to high bet percentage and some small sharp action.
Trends: Are trends dead? Short answer: maybe! Long answer: I have beat the “fade Brohm as a favorite, back Brohm as a dog” narrative into the ground. It has led us fairly consistently through 2019 and 2020. So far in 2021, the trends have been the strongest indicator of what NOT to bet.
Week 1: Trends say Beavers cover and the over.
Outcome: Boilers cover and the total goes under.
Week 2: Trends say UConn covers and the over.
Outcome: Boilers cover and the total goes under.
Week 3: Trends say Purdue covers and the over.
Outcome: Notre Dame covers and the total goes under.
Trends are not indicative of present day information and the smallest change in a team can change a trend. Trends are guidelines, not law. However, trends have done a pretty good job showing predictive performance of coaches over a period of time. Brohm has shown, in a small sample size, that coaches can evolve and buck certain trends. For this week (and maybe luckily for us) the trends are hard to read because of Bielema’s short time at Illinois. While I considered comparing his trends at Arkansas and Wisconsin, I did not feel that would fairly depict his coaching trends. Wisconsin was an inherited program with brand recognition and talent. Arkansas plays SEC competition every week. Illinois is well, Illinois. The talent is not there and really has not been for quite some time. Rashard Mendenhall is not walking through that door. Bret showed his coaching ability to get the team up for Nebraska, and maybe that can be attributed to an entire offseason of preparation. But on a week to week adjustment level, Bret has struggled with a loss to UTSA, a blowout loss to Virginia, and a loss to Maryland on a short week. Edge: Flip a coin. Seriously. Trends are not consistent one way or the other. Maybe it is best they take a week off.
Situation: The situational spots are not really strong one way or the other, similar to the trends. Illinois looked better against an undefeated Maryland and was competitive the whole game. Purdue lost by 14 at Notre Dame in a game that really was closer than the score suggests. The only situational storyline that may get the public going is David Bell and his time in the concussion protocol. David is starting to gain some national name recognition, so the loss may generate some bets to Illinois. Luckily, the Boiler WR room runs deep even with Rice hurt too. Hopefully Illinois native Marcellus Moore can maybe show off some of that speed. EDGE: Non-existent.
Total Analysis:
Prediction: 34-17, Boilers. Not a lot of help from gambling analytics here. The situational spots do not lend well one way or another. The numbers and trends do not either. I will tail the sharp action and pursue the Boilers and the under. This is a game Purdue should win and win handily. I realize Purdue is down at wide receiver, but Illinois is just a bad football team. The worst team in the Big Ten, regardless of the Nebraska game. Illinois gets Charlotte next week, while the Boilers get Minnesota for homecoming. I suppose there could be a little revenge at play on the Boilers’ horizon, but after a loss, I think the Boilers refocus. Purdue has a large amount of players from Illinois, who I am sure will take this game a little personal. The big question mark for me is which Jack Plummer will we get. Purdue has been in this spot before where the Boilers came out and crushed a Maryland team in 2019, with Plummer looking like an all Big Ten performer. I have concerns about his confidence given the actions of Jeff last week. Jack seemed to check down often, and I am unsure of whether or not this was the game plan, or if this was Jack making the decision.
Official Plays: Purdue -11, Under 53. Purdue should get back on track. I expect the defense to continue to show out, even with Cory Trice still out. George should wreck havoc and Jack should return to his normal ways. Look out for the Milton Wright redemption game. If I could bet his over receiving total, I would hammer it. I think he bounces back big.
Bonus. Plug Your Nose and Hit “Place Bet” of the Week (1-2): Wisconsin -6. I do not really understand how Wisconsin is a favorite of this magnitude at Soldier Field. Both fan bases will travel well, but Notre Dame is Notre Dame. They will have more fans there I am sure. Wisconsin has looked relatively unimpressive after an abysmal showing against Penn State Week 1. Notre Dame has not looked much better, but 3-0 is 3-0. Is this bet rooted in bias after last week? Probably, yeah. But this does not make sense I am riding it nonetheless.
Glossary:
The spread: Arguably the most used term in all of gambling, the spread refers to the handicapped line set by the sportsbook. For those new to gambling, think of the spread as a prediction by the sports book, given all the circumstances, of what the difference between the two teams are. The favorite will be listed with a negative spread, while the underdog will have a positive spread. The spread is put in place as a handicap to make the underdog and favorite more equal. For example, Purdue is currently -34 against Illinois meaning a sportsbook would expect Purdue to win by 34.
Odds and How to read them: The ability to read odds presents a gambler the insight into how a sportsbook or “Vegas” views a particular bet. The most common types of odds on sports bet will range from -105 to -115. -115 odds means that to win $10 dollars, a person would need to bet $11.50. Conversely, if the odds are positive, +115, then a bettor who bets $10 would win $11.50. To calculate ML odds for negative odds, take negative Moneyline odds / (Moneyline odds + 100) * 100 = Implied probability. So, if the odds are -115 then 115/(115+100)*100 = 53.5%.
Betting against the spread: Betting against the spread (“ATS”) means you are taking Purdue -34 or Illinois +34. To cover the spread betting on Purdue, Purdue would need to win by 34 or win. If one bets on the Illinois spread, the Fighting Illini would have to win outright or less by less than 34.
Cover: This means a team won ATS. If Purdue beats Illinois by 3, Purdue has won the game, but Illinois has covered.
Money line: Money line (“ML”) is the odds given on a particular team just to win outright. Payouts can be significantly more or less than betting the spread. For example, betting on a big favorite to win on ML will not yield a very high return. Conversely, betting on a big underdog to win could sometimes pay out double or even triple your original bet. It all depends on the odds.
Over/Under: Over/unders are a type of bet that refer to how many total points will be scored in a game. For example, if the sportsbook sets an over/under of 49, bettors will bet under if they believe less than 49 points will be scored and vice-versa.
Sharp Bettor: A sharp bettor is a bettor who has shown the ability to turn a profit over the long run. These are generally gamblers that have shown a history of success. Sharp bettors are very useful in identifying value in a particular bet.
Juice: Juice may be the most confusing aspect for new gamblers or those unfamiliar with gambling. In simple terms, juice is the percentage sportsbooks take on a given wager. Sportsbook use juice to make their profit. To do this, odds for a bet with a sports book are normally -115 or -110 for both sides of the spread. This means that to win ten dollars, you would need to be $11.50. That means either way, the sportsbook is gaining a profit because each side is losing $1.50 per bet. This is the juice.
If there is a definition not listed that you think would be helpful, please let me know.
