Completely Useless and Speculative Minutes Distribution Guess

[Ben Shadeland]

Howdy. Let's get right to it:

Starters
V. Edwards: 28
Matthias: 28
C. Edwards: 26
Haas: 23
Thompson: 22

Bench
Cline: 18
Eastern: 18
Haarms: 17
Wheeler: 12
Taylor or Ewing: 8

Some Thoughts
This will change as we near the season, and it'll certainly change as we get into the BT season and the NCAA Tourney. But this is my best guess. I think Vince and Dakota will both play a ton. I think Carsen will develop into one of the most dynamic guards in the conference, but that he will still occasionally have knucklehead moments. I'd love to see Haas up around 25 or 26, but I think this is more realistic. Thompson might play more than this, but I'm hoping Eastern can pair with some of the more veteran guards to give our offense a more diverse attack. Also, I hope folks remember that this is an average; the "headliners" will play more as the season wears on, and the rotation will tighten up to eight or nine guys.

The bench is obviously a complete guess, as I've barely seen the guys (other than Cline and Taylor) play. But I think Haarms will play more than people expect, and I also wonder if Wheeler might develop sooner rather than later. Cline also might play more than eighteen minutes (more like twenty or twenty-two), but I'm hoping Eastern and Wheeler can eat into some of those wing minutes to give us more offensive creativity (Eastern) and athleticism (Wheeler).

As for the Taylor/Ewing split, I think Taylor still has a lot of potential, and I'd love to see him earn more minutes. I guess I just need to see it on the floor first. Same with Ewing.

Oh, and I didn't forget Sasha. I'm wondering if he'll redshirt with our glut of senior wing types...

Okay. What do you all think?

 

[Boiler Buck]

Bench
Cline: 18
Eastern: 18
Haarms: 17
Wheeler: 12
Taylor or Ewing 8/QUOTE.

Sure hope Wheeler and Ewing are better than that or we could be hurting in 18-19

Cline will likely see a big reduction in PT

 

[hoosierdog1]

I think that's pretty reasonable

 

[Gold&Black]

From the pictures I've seen Wheeler needs a year in the weight room.

 

[lylegolf72]

I think the distribution will drastically change between the start of the season and big ten time as you stated in your thoughts. DM and VE deserve the opportunity to play >30 mins in crunch time. All others you go with the hot hand and matchups.

 

[Wolegib]

From the pictures I've seen Wheeler needs a year in the weight room.

I believe it all depends on what you want Wheeler to be. Do you want to utilize his speed, height and leaping ability at SF? or do you want to develop him into a PF and build on his strength? This a problem when you have a player who can play multiple positions. With Taylor, Ewing and Haarms, I prefer Wheeler to become a smooth SF. And looking at our potential 2018 targets, I'd prefer Wheeler remain at Sf than filling it with another 6'5/6'6 shooting guard. I'd also prefer eastern remain at guard to create mismatches than to try to transform him into a small and short forward.

 

[lylegolf72]

Excellent point Wolegib! I hope we see this lineup sometime this season.

Eastern
CE
Wheels
VE
Ewing

 

[CRBoiler]

Haas knows the better his conditioning is, the more minutes he will get. And he knows his NBA draft stock goes up if he improves at protecting the rim and defense in general. I felt like two years ago Haas made something of a leap conditioning-wise, but last year he lost a bit of what he previously gained. I predict Haas will be in the best shape of his life this fall - should be fun to watch.

 

[TC4THREE]

This is my favorite speculative post each offseason. Where people debate whether a given player will average 12 or 15 minutes a game next year.

 

[dumpsterFyre]

Ewing was one of the highest rated players in JuCo ball last season, from the same school that produced Jimmy Butler. I think he plays 12-15 huge minutes. His body is D1 ready, and at 6'9 can dribble to the rack.

 

[boilerzz]

This is my favorite speculative post each offseason. Where people debate whether a given player will average 12 or 15 minutes a game next year.

I know, right? Clearly the given player is going to average 16.5. Amazing how many people can be so wrong!

 

[Dakota Girl]

I believe it all depends on what you want Wheeler to be. Do you want to utilize his speed, height and leaping ability at SF? or do you want to develop him into a PF and build on his strength? This a problem when you have a player who can play multiple positions. With Taylor, Ewing and Haarms, I prefer Wheeler to become a smooth SF. And looking at our potential 2018 targets, I'd prefer Wheeler remain at Sf than filling it with another 6'5/6'6 shooting guard. I'd also prefer eastern remain at guard to create mismatches than to try to transform him into a small and short forward.

I also don't see any reason to slap a ton of weight on Wheeler. How long has it been since we had an extremely athletic 6'9" SF who can play above the rim. Let him gain that wiry functional strength that just makes him tougher and let the kid slash and fly.

 

[nagemj02]

Howdy. Let's get right to it:

Starters
V. Edwards: 28
Matthias: 28
C. Edwards: 26
Haas: 23
Thompson: 22

Bench
Cline: 18
Eastern: 18
Haarms: 17
Wheeler: 12
Taylor or Ewing: 8

Some Thoughts
This will change as we near the season, and it'll certainly change as we get into the BT season and the NCAA Tourney. But this is my best guess. I think Vince and Dakota will both play a ton. I think Carsen will develop into one of the most dynamic guards in the conference, but that he will still occasionally have knucklehead moments. I'd love to see Haas up around 25 or 26, but I think this is more realistic. Thompson might play more than this, but I'm hoping Eastern can pair with some of the more veteran guards to give our offense a more diverse attack. Also, I hope folks remember that this is an average; the "headliners" will play more as the season wears on, and the rotation will tighten up to eight or nine guys.

The bench is obviously a complete guess, as I've barely seen the guys (other than Cline and Taylor) play. But I think Haarms will play more than people expect, and I also wonder if Wheeler might develop sooner rather than later. Cline also might play more than eighteen minutes (more like twenty or twenty-two), but I'm hoping Eastern and Wheeler can eat into some of those wing minutes to give us more offensive creativity (Eastern) and athleticism (Wheeler).

As for the Taylor/Ewing split, I think Taylor still has a lot of potential, and I'd love to see him earn more minutes. I guess I just need to see it on the floor first. Same with Ewing.

Oh, and I didn't forget Sasha. I'm wondering if he'll redshirt with our glut of senior wing types...

Okay. What do you all think?

There's still room for an immediately-eligible grad transfer and there are players available that can fill that vacancy left by Swanigan:

Currently available quality players:

-Drick Bernstine (North Dakota): http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/player/gamelog/_/id/67415/drick-bernstine

-MiKyle McInstosh (Illinois State): http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/player/gamelog/_/id/66427/mikyle-McIntosh

-Cameron "Cam" Johnson (Pittsburgh): http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/player/gamelog/_/id/3138196/cameron-Johnson (two seasons of eligibility remaining)

I think the grad transfer list will continue to grow until it finally starts slowing around August, so keep in mind that the added grad transfer could tweak your overall minutes distribution.

 

[StickPurdue]

Howdy. Let's get right to it:

Starters
V. Edwards: 28
Matthias: 28
C. Edwards: 26
Haas: 23
Thompson: 22

Bench
Cline: 18
Eastern: 18
Haarms: 17
Wheeler: 12
Taylor or Ewing: 8

Some Thoughts
This will change as we near the season, and it'll certainly change as we get into the BT season and the NCAA Tourney. But this is my best guess. I think Vince and Dakota will both play a ton. I think Carsen will develop into one of the most dynamic guards in the conference, but that he will still occasionally have knucklehead moments. I'd love to see Haas up around 25 or 26, but I think this is more realistic. Thompson might play more than this, but I'm hoping Eastern can pair with some of the more veteran guards to give our offense a more diverse attack. Also, I hope folks remember that this is an average; the "headliners" will play more as the season wears on, and the rotation will tighten up to eight or nine guys.

The bench is obviously a complete guess, as I've barely seen the guys (other than Cline and Taylor) play. But I think Haarms will play more than people expect, and I also wonder if Wheeler might develop sooner rather than later. Cline also might play more than eighteen minutes (more like twenty or twenty-two), but I'm hoping Eastern and Wheeler can eat into some of those wing minutes to give us more offensive creativity (Eastern) and athleticism (Wheeler).

As for the Taylor/Ewing split, I think Taylor still has a lot of potential, and I'd love to see him earn more minutes. I guess I just need to see it on the floor first. Same with Ewing.

Oh, and I didn't forget Sasha. I'm wondering if he'll redshirt with our glut of senior wing types...

Okay. What do you all think?

I would be very surprised if Haarms gets more minutes than Ewing/Taylor. If Taylor stays healthy, I can only imagine that he would get the nod. Ewing was fought in to be an instant impact. Wheeler starting over him tells me that he gains weight quickly, proves his defense, and continues to improve his shooting. I imagine that Taylor and Ewing will both get 10-15 minutes each. I believe Wheeler or Haarms will get big minutes only if Haarms, Haas, or Ewing gets hurt. It is possible that Taylor gets hurt, but I really like his athleticism and potential as a stretch 4/5. This very well could be a breakout year for him.

 

[Ben Shadeland]

This is my favorite speculative post each offseason. Where people debate whether a given player will average 12 or 15 minutes a game next year.

Yep. I think the thread is aptly titled.

 

[BoilerAndy]

There's still room for an immediately-eligible grad transfer and there are players available that can fill that vacancy left by Swanigan:

Currently available quality players:

-Drick Bernstine (North Dakota): http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/player/gamelog/_/id/67415/drick-bernstine

-MiKyle McInstosh (Illinois State): http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/player/gamelog/_/id/66427/mikyle-McIntosh

-Cameron "Cam" Johnson (Pittsburgh): http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/player/gamelog/_/id/3138196/cameron-Johnson (two seasons of eligibility remaining)

I think the grad transfer list will continue to grow until it finally starts slowing around August, so keep in mind that the added grad transfer could tweak your overall minutes distribution.

I'm not sure what you are seeing. Based on their stats alone, which is all that is linked, none of these players could fill that vacancy left by Swanigan. If there is a graduate who is comparable to Swanigan, I believe he would be going to the NBA, not shopping for another team.

 

[nagemj02]

I would be very surprised if Haarms gets more minutes than Ewing/Taylor. If Taylor stays healthy, I can only imagine that he would get the nod. Ewing was fought in to be an instant impact. Wheeler starting over him tells me that he gains weight quickly, proves his defense, and continues to improve his shooting. I imagine that Taylor and Ewing will both get 10-15 minutes each. I believe Wheeler or Haarms will get big minutes only if Haarms, Haas, or Ewing gets hurt. It is possible that Taylor gets hurt, but I really like his athleticism and potential as a stretch 4/5. This very well could be a breakout year for him.

Yep. I feel like this upcoming season is pretty much a "now or never" season for Taylor, in terms of whether or not he will be a significant and/or consistent contributor for the remainder of his Boilermakers career. I remember Biggie mentioning (when he did his blog or whatever about all of his teammates) that if Jacquil makes a bad play in practice, he tends to dwell on it. Teammates like Vince can encourage him and try to get him to have a more even-keeled demeanor on the court (i.e. not too "up" after a good play, not too "down" after a bad play; just move on to the next play or possession).

 

[nagemj02]

Sure hope Wheeler and Ewing are better than that or we could be hurting in 18-19

Cline will likely see a big reduction in PT

He probably should because of his defense but Painter began starting him at the end of this past season due to the (paraphrasing) "size, length, and shooting threat" he gives the lineup (I agree with the shooting part but I don't think his size or length really adds much to the starting or finishing lineup), so someone (Carsen? one of the newbies?) will probably have to consistently outplay him in practices for Painter to start bringing him off of the bench again in '17-'18.

 

[BoilerDaddy]

Howdy. Let's get right to it:

Starters
V. Edwards: 28
Matthias: 28
C. Edwards: 26
Haas: 23
Thompson: 22

Bench
Cline: 18
Eastern: 18
Haarms: 17
Wheeler: 12
Taylor or Ewing: 8

Some Thoughts
This will change as we near the season, and it'll certainly change as we get into the BT season and the NCAA Tourney. But this is my best guess. I think Vince and Dakota will both play a ton. I think Carsen will develop into one of the most dynamic guards in the conference, but that he will still occasionally have knucklehead moments. I'd love to see Haas up around 25 or 26, but I think this is more realistic. Thompson might play more than this, but I'm hoping Eastern can pair with some of the more veteran guards to give our offense a more diverse attack. Also, I hope folks remember that this is an average; the "headliners" will play more as the season wears on, and the rotation will tighten up to eight or nine guys.

The bench is obviously a complete guess, as I've barely seen the guys (other than Cline and Taylor) play. But I think Haarms will play more than people expect, and I also wonder if Wheeler might develop sooner rather than later. Cline also might play more than eighteen minutes (more like twenty or twenty-two), but I'm hoping Eastern and Wheeler can eat into some of those wing minutes to give us more offensive creativity (Eastern) and athleticism (Wheeler).

As for the Taylor/Ewing split, I think Taylor still has a lot of potential, and I'd love to see him earn more minutes. I guess I just need to see it on the floor first. Same with Ewing.

Oh, and I didn't forget Sasha. I'm wondering if he'll redshirt with our glut of senior wing types...

Okay. What do you all think?

Last season, Dakota averaged 32 and PJ averaged 29. I understand that Eastern and an improved Carsen Edwards may take some of their minutes, but I don't anticipate them dropping to as little as 50 minutes combined.

Instead, I think that Purdue may play smaller and Eastern may spend more time at the 3. I will be surprised if Haarms plays 17 minutes per game, for example. I really don't know what to expect from Wheeler and where he fits in the rotation.

 

[Ben Shadeland]

Good thoughts, and you might well have a point about the drop in minutes. I do think CMP had to ride Dakota and PJ more than he wanted to because Spike was hurting much of the time, but even so, Dakota and PJ would have only lowered to, say, 30 and 24/25, respectively, had Spike been well.

My distribution was less about being negative toward the incumbents (whom I think are excellent and deserving of minutes) and more about hoping the newbies can surprise and begin to develop part of a future nucleus. My Haarms number is based on a conversation I had with a good friend who's a good friend of CMP's (sorry if that sounded like a cheesy name-drop-without-an-actual-name, but I do think the info was sound). Basically, CMP is very high on Haarms and thinks he's going to surprise a lot of people.

I hope he's right.

 

[M51]

I believe it all depends on what you want Wheeler to be. Do you want to utilize his speed, height and leaping ability at SF? or do you want to develop him into a PF and build on his strength? This a problem when you have a player who can play multiple positions. With Taylor, Ewing and Haarms, I prefer Wheeler to become a smooth SF. And looking at our potential 2018 targets, I'd prefer Wheeler remain at Sf than filling it with another 6'5/6'6 shooting guard. I'd also prefer eastern remain at guard to create mismatches than to try to transform him into a small and short forward.

Just don't see Wheeler at PF. He is something like 180. Add 45 pounds just to get to a low PF weight, frame. Doubtful.

 

[tjreese]

I believe it all depends on what you want Wheeler to be. Do you want to utilize his speed, height and leaping ability at SF? or do you want to develop him into a PF and build on his strength? This a problem when you have a player who can play multiple positions. With Taylor, Ewing and Haarms, I prefer Wheeler to become a smooth SF. And looking at our potential 2018 targets, I'd prefer Wheeler remain at Sf than filling it with another 6'5/6'6 shooting guard. I'd also prefer eastern remain at guard to create mismatches than to try to transform him into a small and short forward.

In limited video I've only seen a 3 in wheeler

 

[nagemj02]

Last season, Dakota averaged 32 and PJ averaged 29. I understand that Eastern and an improved Carsen Edwards may take some of their minutes, but I don't anticipate them dropping to as little as 50 minutes combined.

Instead, I think that Purdue may play smaller and Eastern may spend more time at the 3. I will be surprised if Haarms plays 17 minutes per game, for example. I really don't know what to expect from Wheeler and where he fits in the rotation.

I think it would be misusing Eastern to play him as a 3 more than as a 1. If Thompson and C. Edwards start together (like they did for the majority of last season), Eastern is the best reserve option at the 1.

Let's look at the seven returning scholarship players' MPG and GP this past season:

1. Mathias: 31.8 MPG (35 GP)
T2. V. Edwards: 28.6 MPG (35 GP)
T2. Thompson: 28.6 MPG (35 GP)
4. C. Edwards: 23.3 MPG (35 GP)
5. Cline: 21.4 MPG (31 GP)
6. Haas: 19.5 MPG (35 GP)
7. Taylor: (redshirted)

Then, take into account the ability level and primary position of the (as of right now) five newcomers:

-PF/SF Eden Ewing 6'8 (Jr.) (JC transfer)
-C/PF Matt Haarms 7'3 (RS Fr.)
-PG/SF Nojel Eastern 6'6 (Fr.)
-SF Aaron Wheeler 6'8 (Fr.)
-SG Sasha Stefanovic 6'4 (Fr.)

I would have to believe that with the presence of Eastern, Wheeler, Ewing, and Haarms, Thompson and Cline would see a slight decrease in MPG. Mathias will likely not need to play 31.8 MPG again this season and I would hope that Haas would be able to play more than 19.5 MPG as a senior.

 

[BoilerDaddy]

Good thoughts, and you might well have a point about the drop in minutes. I do think CMP had to ride Dakota and PJ more than he wanted to because Spike was hurting much of the time, but even so, Dakota and PJ would have only lowered to, say, 30 and 24/25, respectively, had Spike been well.

My distribution was less about being negative toward the incumbents (whom I think are excellent and deserving of minutes) and more about hoping the newbies can surprise and begin to develop part of a future nucleus. My Haarms number is based on a conversation I had with a good friend who's a good friend of CMP's (sorry if that sounded like a cheesy name-drop-without-an-actual-name, but I do think the info was sound). Basically, CMP is very high on Haarms and thinks he's going to surprise a lot of people.

I hope he's right.

I hope so too. It's not hard to imagine him being very effective at 7'2".