Carsen Draft Update

[dumpsterFyre]

Good for him. I think he’s gonna have a good career actually. His athleticism is better than s lot of guards in the NBA. He just happens to be s few inches shorter. But he has long arms, is strong as tough as hell, plus he has s great vertical. Kemba walker does fine, not saying he’s kemba, but I think he has a similar skill set but is more athletic than kemba. He’ll find his place

PER NBADRAFT.NET: Measured 6'0 without shoes, 6'1.5 with shoes, 195 lbs, with a 6'5 wingspan and 7'9.75 standing reach at the June 2017 USA U19 tryouts

Kemba Walker drafted 9th overall
without shoes 5'11-1/2
with shoes 6-1
weight 184
wingspan 6'3-1/2
standing reach 7'7-1/2

Kemba Walker UConn Stats Junior Year
ppg 23.5
rpg 5.4
apg 4.5
mpg 37.6
fg% .428
3p% .330
ft% .819

Carsen Edwards
ppg 24.5
rpg 3.6
apg 2.9
mpg 35.4
fg% .438
3p% .355
ft% .837

Conclusion, Carsen has Kemba beat in every scoring stat and is more desirable for every measurable. Kemba did win a natty. But, it would be ludicrous if Carsen is not drafted in the first round or closer to Kemba's draft position of 9th overall.

 

[DannyGranger]

I know in the playoff these guys turn up the D, but the NBA is still an offensive game and the players, coaches, refs, know it.
Scoring 130 pts with dunks and 3s sells tickets and gets on Sports Center, not holding a guy 10 pts below his average.
NBA D is very similar to 40 yr old guy church league hoops as far as D goes.

They amount of incredibly dumb guess on NBA basketball continues to

Kemba Walker drafted 9th overall
without shoes 5'11-1/2
with shoes 6-1
weight 184
wingspan 6'3-1/2
standing reach 7'7-1/2

Kemba Walker UConn Stats Junior Year
ppg 23.5
rpg 5.4
apg 4.5
mpg 37.6
fg% .428
3p% .330
ft% .819

Carsen Edwards
ppg 24.5
rpg 3.6
apg 2.9
mpg 35.4
fg% .438
3p% .355
ft% .837

Conclusion, Carsen has Kemba beat in every scoring stat and is more desirable for every measurable. Kemba did win a natty. But, it would be ludicrous if Carsen is not drafted in the first round or closer to Kemba's draft position of 9th overall.

Great post. I thought Kemba was a much better penetrater, but based on lower 2pt fg% that was clearly not the case. He was labeled as a pg and had the ball in his hands a lot. But was/is just as much of a score/not distributor as Carsen.

He was/is a significantly better ball handler. That's it though. Carsen's a better deep shooter.

PS: I attend about 10 hornets games a year so pretty intimately aware of Kemba's strengths and weaknesses

 

[ImRonBurgandy?]

They amount of incredibly dumb guess on NBA basketball continues to


Great post. I thought Kemba was a much better penetrater, but based on lower 2pt fg% that was clearly not the case. He was labeled as a pg and had the ball in his hands a lot. But was/is just as much of a score/not distributor as Carsen.

He was/is a significantly better ball handler. That's it though. Carsen's a better deep shooter.

PS: I attend about 10 hornets games a year so pretty intimately aware of Kemba's strengths and weaknesses

Nice job with the comparison. Walker Seems like a really good comp which bodes well for Carsen's draft status.

 

[tjirish44]

All of this. And that's why I thought it was nuts for Edwards to even contemplate coming back...and that was before he absolutely exploded in the NCAAT. He lacks size but he has everything and THEN SOME when it comes to the actual skills that the NBA looks for in the 6'3-6'8 PGs and SGs it typically tends to draft. Do you want to go to the NBA where people can't touch you and you'll have plenty of room to create your own shot or do you want to come back to college where 2 guys have a handful of jersey or even a handful of you every time you come off of a screen?

I think he will have success in the league once he figures out what role he fits on whatever team drafts him. I think he has the ability to be a 25 point a night guy. It's all about if he gets the opportunity and gets the run its going to take to get there though.

I think Patty Mills of the Spurs is a good comparison. Patty is not really a PG and comes off the bench because he can hit 3's. He is listed at 6'0 180. Spurs develop players for roles.

 

[samcboiler]

Whoever drafts CE will be very happy. The guy is a gamer with no fear and hits the tough shots in crunch time.
I don't get this issue with his size. At 6', he's a better athlete, shooter, etc than a lot of guys he be compared to who are in the 6'4-6'5 range.
I still like CE is very similar to an Allen Iverson type, except stronger to the hole and with the body that can take a beating.

I like your take except nobody took it to the rack like AI... Not a fan of him off the court, but on it, he was an absolute beast for a 6 footer...

 

[Wolegib]

looking at the Buck's draft position and their new coach and style, and new love of throwing up 3's, I wouldn't be surprised if he's there, that the Bucks would take him with their first round pick. although, I believe he'll be drafted before 30th. although, if not, the Bucks would be a nice situation for him to excel.

 

[New Pal Boiler]

I think Patty Mills of the Spurs is a good comparison. Patty is not really a PG and comes off the bench because he can hit 3's. He is listed at 6'0 180. Spurs develop players for roles.

Going back a little bit, he reminds me a little of Dana Barros. Quick, 3 point shooter, undersized, not really a point but can guard the other teams point guards.

 

[bonefish1]

I like your take except nobody took it to the rack like AI... Not a fan of him off the court, but on it, he was an absolute beast for a 6 footer...

I think CE is really aggressive going to the rim as well. If he has a chance to dunk, he takes it. Plus, he can take the physical punishment since he's built like a running back.
People got all up in arms when I compared CE to AI. I didn't say CE would be a hall of famer, all I said was that they had a lot of similarities and that CE's game should translate really well to the NBA.

 

[Do Dah Day]

looking at the Buck's draft position and their new coach and style, and new love of throwing up 3's, I wouldn't be surprised if he's there, that the Bucks would take him with their first round pick. although, I believe he'll be drafted before 30th. although, if not, the Bucks would be a nice situation for him to excel.

Milwaukee's wish list at 30:

Ty Jerome -- They WANT HIM! but so does Cleveland and Golden State
Kevin Porter
Jalen McDaniels
Cameron Johnson
Eric Paschal
Luguentz Dort

 

[Wolegib]

Milwaukee's wish list at 30:

Ty Jerome -- They WANT HIM! but so does Cleveland and Golden State
Kevin Porter
Jalen McDaniels
Cameron Johnson
Eric Paschal
Luguentz Dort

I've seen some of the draft projections for the Bucks. they are kind of all over the charts with possibilities from PG to center. Looks like they may just take the best player available regardless of position. Their success this year was surrounding Giannis with 3 point shooters at every position and letting him do his thing. Brogden and Bledsoe are a nice backcourt duo with Hill as a backup. Middleton has made a nice transition from SG to SF. Lopez is an awesome 3 point shooting center. they have some salary cap issues, and may not be able to bring everybody back. they could use some young talent as a back-up to every position. I believe Carsen would make a nice addition as a back-up combo guard.

I can believe they may like Ty Jerome, but so do several other teams. there could be a lot of movement in the players projected from pick 25 - 35 between now and draft night.

 

[ZLaner]

I tend to do a lot of draft stuff during this time of the year. Here are my player comps for Carsen.

High: Lou Williams
Mid: Patty Mills
Low: Jimmer Fredette

Probable outcome: Eddie House

Agree? Disagree?

 

[Wolegib]

I tend to do a lot of draft stuff during this time of the year. Here are my player comps for Carsen.

High: Lou Williams
Mid: Patty Mills
Low: Jimmer Fredette

Probable outcome: Eddie House

Agree? Disagree?

I would disagree. I'd say his low is Patty Mills. I'd say his high is the Bucks' Bledsoe. Bledsoe wil l never be confused as being an all star. but he loves to shoot, and sometimes, he can put up some nice numbers.

 

[dumpsterFyre]

Here's another 6' NBA starter getting stuffed by Kevin Hart.

 

[IndySouthsider]

I think CE is really aggressive going to the rim as well. If he has a chance to dunk, he takes it. Plus, he can take the physical punishment since he's built like a running back.
People got all up in arms when I compared CE to AI. I didn't say CE would be a hall of famer, all I said was that they had a lot of similarities and that CE's game should translate really well to the NBA.

Yeah I still think ball handling is going to keep him on the bench. But also think his move to the draft was perfect timing.

And there is a HUGE difference and very few similarities between Iverson and Edwards

 

[ZLaner]

I would disagree. I'd say his low is Patty Mills. I'd say his high is the Bucks' Bledsoe. Bledsoe wil l never be confused as being an all star. but he loves to shoot, and sometimes, he can put up some nice numbers.

I don't really like the Bledsoe comp because Bledsoe is much more of a playmaker. Bledsoe also finishes at the rim at an insane rate. Carsen's assist:turnover ratio was less than 1. Bledsoe's is right around 2+. Carsen isn't nearly as fast as Mills but has that volume shooting type style off the bench that can grab 10 points or so a game. We also can't forget that he shot under 40% total from the field this season. Carsen isn't an elite finisher and will struggle with the length on the drive at the next level. This is shown by his 57% finishing rate at the rim, which is very bad. Just doesn't have the physical traits. He also really needs to taper back on the shots and become a better decision maker. He's a Trae Young 2.0, but this Trae Young takes bad shots on his own accord, the real Trae Young took bad shots because he had to (TY also shot 42% from the floor and 36% from deep).

His defense is also bad and I am not sure he'll be able to turn into an average defender at the next level. For a shooting guard trapped in a point guards body, he'll get exposed in the playoffs. You can mask that via scheme in the regular season, but playoffs they prey on weaknesses.

Edit: I think he'll be a solid role player if he improves on a lot of things. With Jones and Howard coming back, that even makes this PG class weaker.

 

[MilwaukeeBoilerFan]

looking at the Buck's draft position and their new coach and style, and new love of throwing up 3's, I wouldn't be surprised if he's there, that the Bucks would take him with their first round pick. although, I believe he'll be drafted before 30th. although, if not, the Bucks would be a nice situation for him to excel.

I might actually go to a Bucks game if he comes to town.

 

[Wolegib]

I might actually go to a Bucks game if he comes to town.

with the Bucks' new philosophy of every player being able to shoot the three, and their draft position at #30, I could actually see the bucks drafting Carsen if he's still there. I don't believe the bucks have a second round pick this year. and their style is sort of like Purdue in that they have multiple players with point guard responsibilities. and they are very perimeter oriented.

 

[Do Dah Day]

I don't really like the Bledsoe comp because Bledsoe is much more of a playmaker. Bledsoe also finishes at the rim at an insane rate. Carsen's assist:turnover ratio was less than 1. Bledsoe's is right around 2+. Carsen isn't nearly as fast as Mills but has that volume shooting type style off the bench that can grab 10 points or so a game. We also can't forget that he shot under 40% total from the field this season. Carsen isn't an elite finisher and will struggle with the length on the drive at the next level. This is shown by his 57% finishing rate at the rim, which is very bad. Just doesn't have the physical traits. He also really needs to taper back on the shots and become a better decision maker. He's a Trae Young 2.0, but this Trae Young takes bad shots on his own accord, the real Trae Young took bad shots because he had to (TY also shot 42% from the floor and 36% from deep).

His defense is also bad and I am not sure he'll be able to turn into an average defender at the next level. For a shooting guard trapped in a point guards body, he'll get exposed in the playoffs. You can mask that via scheme in the regular season, but playoffs they prey on weaknesses.

Edit: I think he'll be a solid role player if he improves on a lot of things. With Jones and Howard coming back, that even makes this PG class weaker.

EXCELLENT ... but no love button yet - *sigh*

 

[ZLaner]

EXCELLENT ... but no love button yet - *sigh*

Thanks. I appreciate it - I do tend to look at the weaknesses a lot more than the strengths, but I think in his case it is warranted.

 

[ZLaner]

with the Bucks' new philosophy of every player being able to shoot the three, and their draft position at #30, I could actually see the bucks drafting Carsen if he's still there. I don't believe the bucks have a second round pick this year. and their style is sort of like Purdue in that they have multiple players with point guard responsibilities. and they are very perimeter oriented.

Bucks would be a great spot. I think it'll be them, 76ers, Celtics who look hardest at him. Maybe the Bulls in R2.

 

[Do Dah Day]

Thanks. I appreciate it - I do tend to look at the weaknesses a lot more than the strengths, but I think in his case it is warranted.

weaknesses are the differentiator in most cases. Many can do some things well, few can do many things well. Pick your poison. How many said Grady's greatest strength was that he didn't make mistakes or try to do things he couldn't.

 

[ZLaner]

weaknesses are the differentiator in most cases. Many can do some things well, few can do many things well. Pick your poison. How many said Grady's greatest strength was that he didn't make mistakes or try to do things he couldn't.

Exactly. In Carsen's case he really doesn't have a trait that sets him apart from any guard in the NBA...but he's slower, probably just below average finisher, and awful defender...*every* guard at the next level can get hot and make tough shots and if they can't they have qualities that mask it, think Simmons.

 

[AugustaBoiler90]

I might have missed someone else post this, but I’ve seen him go as high as 25 in mocks. Having said that, if he slides into the second round I’d love to see Atlanta pick him up with their first second round pick (35 I believe). Even if he came off the bench I think him and Tre could be a nasty backcourt

 

[Fansince72]

Exactly. In Carsen's case he really doesn't have a trait that sets him apart from any guard in the NBA...but he's slower, probably just below average finisher, and awful defender...*every* guard at the next level can get hot and make tough shots and if they

Bullshit

 

[ZLaner]

Bullshit

Which part is bullshit? I’ll explain my reasoning behind whatever I said.

 

[NVBoilerFan]

Which part is bullshit? I’ll explain my reasoning behind whatever I said.

Care to explain your awful defender take?

 

[Do Dah Day]

Care to explain your awful defender take?

Let's rise up and just look at this reasonably. I LOVE Carsen. I will raise my voice in praise forever on this year's tournament. But how many times have great college players floundered and struggled and move on from the NBA?

1. He'll be shorter than every man he guards (or at least almost every one)
2. He was not the best defensive guard on our team and when he got switched onto the other team's best, he was beaten often.
3. He will be targeted by the Offense in the NBA, they are pretty good at preying on any weakness of the opposition.
4. He has a short window to prove himself. If his man scores and he has an off night, as we know he can- then poof

 

[Beeazlebub]

Exactly. In Carsen's case he really doesn't have a trait that sets him apart from any guard in the NBA...but he's slower, probably just below average finisher, and awful defender...*every* guard at the next level can get hot and make tough shots and if they can't they have qualities that mask it, think Simmons.

Three things

-Carsen is not slower than most guards in the NBA

-Carsen is not an an awful defender, although his height will be an issue

-Carsen's ability to score is what sets him apart. He's an elite scorer at the college level, and some of that will translate into the NBA.

 

[Beeazlebub]

Let's rise up and just look at this reasonably. I LOVE Carsen. I will raise my voice in praise forever on this year's tournament. But how many times have great college players floundered and struggled and move on from the NBA?

1. He'll be shorter than every man he guards (or at least almost every one)
2. He was not the best defensive guard on our team and when he got switched onto the other team's best, he was beaten often.
3. He will be targeted by the Offense in the NBA, they are pretty good at preying on any weakness of the opposition.
4. He has a short window to prove himself. If his man scores and he has an off night, as we know he can- then poof

I agree with most of this, although "poof" might mean making high 6, low 7 figures somewhere overseas.

His physical strength, which will only increase as he continues to mature, will make up for some of his height deficiencies on defense.

 

[Do Dah Day]

I agree with most of this, although "poof" might mean making high 6, low 7 figures somewhere overseas.

His physical strength, which will only increase as he continues to mature, will make up for some of his height deficiencies on defense.

OH, I agree about overseas, kind of. The problem there is they are REALLY TALL!!! Remember that Doug Lee played PG his whole overseas career. Are there some of our shorter guys playing there now? Seems like there are.

 

[Beeazlebub]

OH, I agree about overseas, kind of. The problem there is they are REALLY TALL!!! Remember that Doug Lee played PG his whole overseas career. Are there some of our shorter guys playing there now? Seems like there are.

PJ, Willie Deane, and Kramer are all still playing somewhere. Not all overseas jobs are cushy - see Hummel's thoughts on playing in Russia, but I think JJ makes 2M/year?

Adam Ballinger from MSU played for years in Australia & made a decent living. The growing Chinese market is also potentially lucrative to a scorer like Carsen.

I think all of this will be moot, as I'd be surprised if he doesn't find a home in the NBA.

 

[ZLaner]

Care to explain your awful defender take?

Edwards' size is a pretty big weakness, as typically guys in the NBA at this size need to be elite at something, and are usually complete liabilities defensively. Edwards is likely not an exception on the defensive end, as he hasn't shown any elite instincts to suggest he can be passable at his size, and his lateral agility is not a strength either. It is possible that he just doesn't really try too much on that end because of his responsibilities on offense, but I'd say it's a long shot that he ever becomes an average defender.

The answer here is different for different schemes and for different times of the season. You can hide a bad defender in the regular season if you scheme for it. In the playoffs, that matchup is going to get heavily hunted and leave you at a disadvantage. In general though, I think what happens is that point guards have both the lowest agency on the defensive end because schemes don't ask much of them, as well as the widest range of abilities, which makes it to where their overall impact runs about similar to other positions.

According to the metrics he was also worth -.2 points on the defensive end to the average player.

Three things

-Carsen is not slower than most guards in the NBA

-Carsen is not an an awful defender, although his height will be an issue

-Carsen's ability to score is what sets him apart. He's an elite scorer at the college level, and some of that will translate into the NBA.

His concerns as a scorer are mostly because of his size as well, since it limits his finishing ability against bigger and longer guys. For a guy with his athleticism, he doesn't really draw many fouls, and his finishing numbers aren't amazing. His Free Throw Rate is only .266, and he shot just 49.2% at the rim. Which puts him in the bottom of the pack comparing with NBA numbers, inevitably that 49% rate will fall in the NBA.

Looking at Purdue's numbers, Edwards was the worst on the team in finishing at the rim this season (save Sasha who took 8 shots there). That's a bad percentage, especially given 17% of those are assisted, but he likely won't be as successful as a finisher at the next level with his lack of elite touch and extension. At times he gets a bit sped up attacking the rim and gets a little out of control. Furthermore, the worst team in NCAA at finishing at the rim was UC Santa Barbara - who was above 50% on the season.

Also had the worst EFG% (behind Eric Hunter) and worst True shot percentage (behind Nojel and Hunter) on the team. Percentages are indicative of success at the next level and generally they do go down with bigger defenders, and more physical defenders.

If you look at the NBA combine numbers from last year, you could make the case that Grayson Allen is much more quicker/athletic than he is. Carsen was middle of the pack in vertical leap, shuttle run, and lane agility, the latter being a good indicator of lateral quickness. In that test he was the 13th worst time, including the 3rd worst among guards. In the 3/4 court sprint (which is a good indicator of speed), he finished dead in the middle behind a few PF/C's and tied with PJ Washington who isn't fast.

Edit: Browsing through the charts, Cassius Winston finished at a 55% rate at the rim, playing against better (overall) competition according to SOS. This is with him being the same height as Carsen (allegedly).

 

[DannyGranger]

I might have missed someone else post this, but I’ve seen him go as high as 25 in mocks. Having said that, if he slides into the second round I’d love to see Atlanta pick him up with their first second round pick (35 I believe). Even if he came off the bench I think him and Tre could be a nasty backcourt

No. Too small together. Unless he's only with second unit, which might be fine. But that would be a disaster defensively if you played them at same time.

 

[DannyGranger]

Bullshit

This guy continues to have terrible takes but speaks (writes) with such confidence! It's enjoyable. But incredibly uninformed

 

[ZLaner]

This guy continues to have terrible takes but speaks (writes) with such confidence! It's enjoyable. But incredibly uninformed

Me or?

 

[Emartin70287]

I don't really like the Bledsoe comp because Bledsoe is much more of a playmaker. Bledsoe also finishes at the rim at an insane rate. Carsen's assist:turnover ratio was less than 1. Bledsoe's is right around 2+. Carsen isn't nearly as fast as Mills but has that volume shooting type style off the bench that can grab 10 points or so a game. We also can't forget that he shot under 40% total from the field this season. Carsen isn't an elite finisher and will struggle with the length on the drive at the next level. This is shown by his 57% finishing rate at the rim, which is very bad. Just doesn't have the physical traits. He also really needs to taper back on the shots and become a better decision maker. He's a Trae Young 2.0, but this Trae Young takes bad shots on his own accord, the real Trae Young took bad shots because he had to (TY also shot 42% from the floor and 36% from deep).

His defense is also bad and I am not sure he'll be able to turn into an average defender at the next level. For a shooting guard trapped in a point guards body, he'll get exposed in the playoffs. You can mask that via scheme in the regular season, but playoffs they prey on weaknesses.

Edit: I think he'll be a solid role player if he improves on a lot of things. With Jones and Howard coming back, that even makes this PG class weaker.

You throw in here some efficiency numbers, but then you leave out why. Take a look at Carsens 3pt shooting his sophmore year, he was a 40%+ shooter last year. Now his junior year he is much improved but not shooting as efficiently, not getting a great assist to turnover rating. You cant compare efficiency statistics with Carsen because Purdue didnt have any reliable scorers outside of Cline, and Haarms. The rest of the team was score by comittee. All you have to do as look at his sophmore stats and see what having a guy like Vince, Isaac, or mathias around him does. He will have talent around him in the NBA. Sorry, just hate when I read oh he shot 36% and it be taken out of context that he has the highest usage rating in college basketball. Yes, similar to trae young.

 

[Wolegib]

I believe it was kind of a given Carsen's efficiency would go down this year as his scoring would increase. But he did prove he can make long distance shots and shots when double teamed. I believe like his junior year, when paired with other talent, you will see a more successful and talented Carsen. I'm not expecting him to become an all star, but I see no reason not to expect him to be able to play and contribute at the next level in the NBA.

I thought for sure when the Houston Rockets signed Melo after drafting Vince, that Vince would be cut . but it was Vince who stayed and Melo who was sent packing.

 

[ZLaner]

I believe it was kind of a given Carsen's efficiency would go down this year as his scoring would increase. But he did prove he can make long distance shots and shots when double teamed. I believe like his junior year, when paired with other talent, you will see a more successful and talented Carsen. I'm not expecting him to become an all star, but I see no reason not to expect him to be able to play and contribute at the next level in the NBA.

I thought for sure when the Houston Rockets signed Melo after drafting Vince, that Vince would be cut . but it was Vince who stayed and Melo who was sent packing.

Melo was a cancer, that is why he was cut. Didn't fit in with the roster construction.

 

[ZLaner]

You throw in here some efficiency numbers, but then you leave out why. Take a look at Carsens 3pt shooting his sophmore year, he was a 40%+ shooter last year. Now his junior year he is much improved but not shooting as efficiently, not getting a great assist to turnover rating. You cant compare efficiency statistics with Carsen because Purdue didnt have any reliable scorers outside of Cline, and Haarms. The rest of the team was score by comittee. All you have to do as look at his sophmore stats and see what having a guy like Vince, Isaac, or mathias around him does. He will have talent around him in the NBA. Sorry, just hate when I read oh he shot 36% and it be taken out of context that he has the highest usage rating in college basketball. Yes, similar to trae young.

His efficiency went down, but if you look at last year his usage this year didn't go up a ton compared to what a lot of people think. And he really wasn't all that efficient last year either compared to the top guards in the nation.

I don't know how he was "much improved". His numbers were down across the board, his assist to turnover ratio wasn't just "not getting a great rating" but it was awful for an undersized PG. His assist percentage stayed essentially the same from last year to this year.

 

[Wolegib]

Melo was a cancer, that is why he was cut. Didn't fit in with the roster construction.

a agree, but it sure didn't look good for Vince the day Melo was signed. I believe Carsen has as good of a chance sticking on a team as Vince and Biggie did. I'm not sure if it will be first or second round, but I believe he'll make a team.