Can/will the B12 survive?
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If they are looking strictly at expansion for tv rights and deals, I agree that Cincinnati makes the most sense but then also need to consider UCONN (gives East Coast access to recruiting and markets). However, I personally think the Big 12 is a little more traditional and they may want to stay closer to home. I think they may end up adding Cincinnati but then also add Houston to the mix. I thought possibly SMU with a resurgent football and men's basketball programs (and I think if SMU got in to Power 5 status, they may be able to hold on to their football coach longer), that they would seem very attractive but the map didn't show them.
BYU and Colorado State makes geographic sense and you get Denver and Salt Lake markets. Not huge but they mean something for TV rights. none of the east coast markets mentioned would be larger than that.
This isn't about recruiting. It's about TV money. Those are also the only 2 schools that don't have a mid-major reputation.
This isn't about recruiting. It's about TV money. Those are also the only 2 schools that don't have a mid-major reputation.
Colorado St doesnt have a mid major rep? Since when?
Also, Cinci was in BCS bowls recently. The other candidates cant say that.
Colorado state used to be a good football school, though they were in the WAC, they used to make a lot of bowls and beat Colorado. Maybe more so that their name doesn't have a direction in it.
Cinci has been good recently and in the past, but unless it's a move to provide travel relief for WVU, I don't know if the UC alumni base is as dedicated to purchase the sports package to off set the small impact of being in Ohio State's backyard.
At least CSU and BYU have less regional competition for eyes. CSU vs Colorado is much like Purdue vs. IU.
Youre probably right about the sports package for football. You could convince the fanbase for basketball. Mick Cronin is the worst.
I would also venture to guess most of the UC fans are actually OSU fans too
Quite a few. I think you know i grew up down there and still know alumni. Basketball has a pretty good fanbase. The football fanbase is similar to ours. A small group of diehards (mostly older) and then a bunch of fickle millenials.
UC kindof got screwed during realignment. They were one of the better teams left in the Big East and no one took them.
I think I remember reading that UT and Texas Tech are sort of hand in hand at this point if realignment does occur and I would have to guess OU and Okie St are in the same boat. And I know Kansas and KSU are locked together according to their state legislature. If the B1G was going to expand, I would love to add Oklahoma and Okie St. Great football and basketball traditions that would really supplement the conference well. That would push Purdue to the East portion of the conference though with OSU, MSU, UM, and PSU. Didn't truly make a difference at this point for football seeing how bad the program is currently.
In all honesty, if the B1G does add two more teams in expansion again it will more than likely be Georgia Tech (Atlanta market) and another university that adds to the conference as a whole athlecally and academically like Iowa State (no new market but does fit categorically well with the conference) or Louisville out of the AAC (get a decent market out of Tennessee).
I'm sorry but if you think Iowa State, Louisville, or Okie State have even a 1% chance of getting an invite to the B1G, you don't understand how the process works. I agree that OU - even without AAU status - would have a shot but ONLY by itself (no Cowboys). I'm a big fan of GA Tech, but I think UVA would be higher on their list. Remember it's the presidents who extend an invite. I suspect their list is somethings like UT, UVA, GT, maybe UNC, OU/KU (both have academic issues but are both too good of brands to overlook particularly if paired with a much stronger academic institution). I still think ND is probably on the list somewhere too.
The Big 12 really has the potential to be the deepest football conference in the country (and you can make the argument it has been recently).
Given the geographic makeup with West Virginia, I'd say Cincy is the most obvious candidate with Memphis behind them. In addition to football, both of those schools have historically been pretty good in basketball as well. So even if they aren't as solid of an add for football, you should at least get a good major sport out of them. Obviously schools like Houston, ECU, Tulane, Colorado State, etc. do not really give you much "oomph" to your basketball strength. Not that basketball is their main concern, but it still factors.
I'm fine with nobody but I'm not convinced it is realistic. I'm interested to see how our tier 1 TV negotiations go and how they address potential future expansion.
Very true in regards to UVA. I didn't think of them as a possibility due to being in the ACC, which appears to be much stronger now than 4-5 years ago. Virginia would be a great addition but let's not kid ourselves here....the President's see the climate of funding coming and if they can add a university that may not generally 'fit' in to their classic acceptance, the money that can be drawn from adding an OU or KU to things like football and basketball would be huge. Could you imagine the amount of publicity that would be generated adding an OU to the West division and having them play teams like UM and OSU in the B1G Title game? What about KU playing yearly with IU, MSU, PU? It would generate tons of interest in the schools.
I am with you that I would much rather see more southeastern schools added but I was tending to try to look solely at the Big 12 as that was the topic originally. Georgia Tech and UNC would be amazing...but I think UNC and Duke are tied together based on basketball...and NC State may have a hand in where UNC goes as well.
Dream additions to 16 for the B1G after looking at the AAU list of schools: University of Kansas & Georgia Tech. With these schools you continue to keep the West and East divisions the same and you add new markets to the B1G Network. Kansas would do little to nothing for football but keep in mind it would mean a huge step up in men's basketball. Adding Georgia Tech adds the Atlanta market which would do wonders for the imprint of the B1G in the Southeast.
Good points. As long as they pay the cover charge, I.e. Bring enough in market eyeballs to increase the BTN carriage rate, I could get behind OU, KU, UVA, or GT. Of the 4, KU definitely brings the least eyeballs. The StL market is already in the footprint (I believe).
The St. Louis market has always been one that has been implied as being part of the B1G but I don't get the feeling of that honestly. I get that UofI claims to the the state university but I just never thought that the market was B1G strong. When I think of that, I think of ND and them owning the Chicago market or the Hoosiers in Indy for example. If there are any St. Louis residents on the board, I would love to hear your perspective of the B1G having a big footprint already.
I think with the addition of Kansas, you would be adding the Kansas City market, which would be massive to the B1G with a population of near 500k and being only 42 minutes away. That alone would be an attractive perspective for the B1G.
Another interesting addition could be Iowa State, which is in a similar situation to Kansas being just north of a major city in Des Moines...although I am pretty sure OMHR garners the televisions in that state that is really needed.
Georgia Tech has a good history of basketball in the recent past and would be a great addition for football in the east as well. Kansas would be a great addition for basketball (like I said, imagine IU, Michigan, MSU, Purdue, Whisky playing Kansas once or twice a year...instant marquee matchups and a perennial national championship contender for basketball). Selfishly I'd want Kansas added sooner rather than later to give Purdue a chance at another conference win in football!
The thing is - what is very clear in the world of TV rights is that the money networks have been paying are not sustainable in the future as cable subscriptions drop significantly.
The thing is, you're eventually going to hit a max of what you can expand to. And if the TV rights that major companies are paying go down - you're splitting less revenue with more schools.
The Big Ten needs to jump more on the ala carte bandwagon and/or beef up its offerings. For those paying for Hulu, etc. - they probably do not care to add $15/month for one channel when they are paying LESS than that a month for all of their channels on Hulu. And consider that you could go an entire month without your team playing on the network between non-conference basketball season and football season. Also, you're looking at paying $4-5/game over the course of basketball season - and maybe more during football season.
I understand their subscription includes all the Olympic sport coverage, but maybe having a $5/month for football/men's basketball option and then $15/month to include everything - could beef up subscribers in areas that will never get BTN on a basic cable package.
But tier 1 starts negotiating this summer and everything I've read is that the B1G is going to see a record windfall, particularly if Fox and ESPN start a bidding war. I don't disagree TV rights are a bubble, but I don't see it blowing up in the next 9 months. It is possible the B1G tier 1 negotiation may be the last big one before things regress back to the mean. I think the B1G is positioned perfectly to cash out at exactly the right time.
When I say the B1G has a market already, I mean that the BTN is getting in network carriage rates on the cable providers in that city. It is my understanding StL cable providers pay the higher rate for BTN. I'm not 100% sure but I know I've heard that (probably on Frank the Tank's blog).
I'm positive the entire state of Iowa is already in network, therefore there is absolutely zero reason to consider Iowa State. In fact, if the B12 would to implode, they would likely lose P5 status. Frankly Purdue would be in the same boat if we weren't a charter member of the B1G.
Kansas City would be a nice get but not enough by itself to increase the overall BTN revenue by school if the pie is cut with one more school. They'd need a much bigger/better partner. If GT could get Atlanta, and I'm sure it could, that would be a much better choice.
Remember, we all can gripe all we want about Rutgers, but a single cable system (Cablevision in NYC) more than paid for their spot in the league. Add in all of the other NJ service providers and Rutgers is arguably one of the top 4-5 schools in the conference in terms of what it delivers in carriage rates.
New acc ESPN deal has made the big 12 all about expansion talk again.
Cincy, Houston, memphis, byu, UConn.
Ucf and usf were on espn college football daily recently with their sales pitch too.
https://frankthetank.me/2016/07/29/...e-realignment-summer-of-big-12-cya-expansion/
Cincy, Houston, memphis, byu, UConn.
Ucf and usf were on espn college football daily recently with their sales pitch too.
https://frankthetank.me/2016/07/29/...e-realignment-summer-of-big-12-cya-expansion/
Neither ESPN nor Fox wants the B12 to expand with piszant schools like Cincy, Houston or Memphis. They'll be paying an extra $80 million/year for schools with a collective market value of less than $10 million/year. This "expansion" is not happening.
https://sports.yahoo.com/news/repor...o-big-12-expansion-plans-150355285.html?nhp=1
https://sports.yahoo.com/news/repor...o-big-12-expansion-plans-150355285.html?nhp=1
Biggest issue I see is there aren't many schools that make a ton of sense. If they can get BYU that seems like a no-brainer to me. Other than them I don't see many schools with anything to offer that exist within their footprint. You can add Cincinnati which is solid but doesn't really fit in with the Big 12 outside of WVU. They don't need another mid-major level school from Texas. What they really need is A&M, Nebraska, or even Missouri back.
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