Bombogenesis

[Beeazlebub]

Bombogenesis is defined by a storm dropping by 24 millibars of pressure in 24 hours. Such a drop in pressure indicates rapid intensification of a storm, which is why such events are labeled with a dramatic term.

Yesterday's 11pm advisory on Joaquin estimated pressure at 990mb, and tonight's came in at 951mb (and dropping). The EURO model still parallels the coast without making landfall, but every other model takes it onto the coast this weekend anywhere from NC to the NE. Even without landfall, there will be a Major flooding event in the mid atlantic to NE. A landfall stands a good chance of making this the most significant weather event in the US since Sandy in 2012.

 

[SCBoiler]

Bombogenesis is defined by a storm dropping by 24 millibars of pressure in 24 hours. Such a drop in pressure indicates rapid intensification of a storm, which is why such events are labeled with a dramatic term.

Yesterday's 11pm advisory on Joaquin estimated pressure at 990mb, and tonight's came in at 951mb (and dropping). The EURO model still parallels the coast without making landfall, but every other model takes it onto the coast this weekend anywhere from NC to the NE. Even without landfall, there will be a Major flooding event in the mid atlantic to NE. A landfall stands a good chance of making this the most significant weather event in the US since Sandy in 2012.

I may be wrong, but you sound giddy about this. Are you looking forward to destruction to prove your hypotheses? That's sick!

Where have all the other major storms been, I thought this was to be the norm? One finally comes close and you can't wait to come on here and trumpet the fact that your predictions are coming true? Dude, get a grip!

 

[Beeazlebub]

I may be wrong, but you sound giddy about this. Are you looking forward to destruction to prove your hypotheses? That's sick!

Where have all the other major storms been, I thought this was to be the norm? One finally comes close and you can't wait to come on here and trumpet the fact that your predictions are coming true? Dude, get a grip!

I'll give you something to grip. Do you talk to people like this in real life?

The purpose was to inform anyone who may be unaware to the potential of this storm. I work and have advanced degrees in the climate field, but that had nothing to do with this post about a WEATHER event. Stop projecting your neurosis on this board.

WTF is wrong with you?

 

[SCBoiler]

I'll give you something to grip. Do you talk to people like this in real life?

The purpose was to inform anyone who may be unaware to the potential of this storm. I work and have advanced degrees in the climate field, but that had nothing to do with this post about a WEATHER event. Stop projecting your neurosis on this board.

WTF is wrong with you?

I said, I might be wrong. Trust me there are plenty of enviros that cheer this kind of thing because they said hurricanes were going to get worse and they want to be right. Maybe you're not one of them. But, that is sick.

Don't be afraid to be challenged.

 

[Beeazlebub]

I said, I might be wrong. Trust me there are plenty of enviros that cheer this kind of thing because they said hurricanes were going to get worse and they want to be right. Maybe you're not one of them. But, that is sick.

Don't be afraid to be challenged.

"Enviros" may have said hurricanes would get worse, but the science has never been strong in leading to that conclusion. I talked about this earlier in the climate thread.

I am fascinated by weather, climate, and earth science, but I never "cheer" for death and destruction.

Btw - If you still live in SC, the latest model runs show extreme rainfall to the tune of 10+ inches in your region over the next several days. No, and I can't believe I have to say this, I am not cheering for you to get flooded out.

 

[SCBoiler]

"Enviros" may have said hurricanes would get worse, but the science has never been strong in leading to that conclusion. I talked about this earlier in the climate thread.

I am fascinated by weather, climate, and earth science, but I never "cheer" for death and destruction.

Btw - If you still live in SC, the latest model runs show extreme rainfall to the tune of 10+ inches in your region over the next several days. No, and I can't believe I have to say this, I am not cheering for you to get flooded out.

Gotcha, sorry I mistook the tone of the OP.

I do live in SC, on the western side though. Interestingly, so far the models are all over the place, but they are calling for us to get ~10 in of rain. Which sucks cause I have plans to go to the Clemson-ND game.

 

[qazplm]

"Enviros" may have said hurricanes would get worse, but the science has never been strong in leading to that conclusion. I talked about this earlier in the climate thread.

I am fascinated by weather, climate, and earth science, but I never "cheer" for death and destruction.

Btw - If you still live in SC, the latest model runs show extreme rainfall to the tune of 10+ inches in your region over the next several days. No, and I can't believe I have to say this, I am not cheering for you to get flooded out.

But you're a liberal climate change whacko, of course you are cheering for him to get flooded...you spend your entire time lying, but then also hoping that your lies are true.

Admit it!!!

 

[beardownboiler]

I may be wrong, but you sound giddy about this. Are you looking forward to destruction to prove your hypotheses? That's sick!

Where have all the other major storms been, I thought this was to be the norm? One finally comes close and you can't wait to come on here and trumpet the fact that your predictions are coming true? Dude, get a grip!

What? No, he doesn't sound giddy. He might come across as a little smug (because, let's be honest, some on this board have been pretty smug to him with some pretty stupid comments about climate change), but that's about it. After all the grief he takes on this board, I don't see any issue with him rubbing the stupidity of others in their faces. However, to equate smugness with joy over a potential tragedy is ridiculous.

 

[qazplm]

Gotcha, sorry I mistook the tone of the OP.

I do live in SC, on the western side though. Interestingly, so far the models are all over the place, but they are calling for us to get ~10 in of rain. Which sucks cause I have plans to go to the Clemson-ND game.

What tone? If that post was any drier and devoid of tone it would be sitting in the middle of the Sahara.

 

[SCBoiler]

What tone? If that post was any drier and devoid of tone it would be sitting in the middle of the Sahara.

Even without landfall, there will be a Major flooding event in the mid atlantic to NE. A landfall stands a good chance of making this the most significant weather event in the US since Sandy in 2012.

This part. With most models still unsure if this thing will be anything to the US, it just seemed weird to be trumpeting this. Sounded kinda like he was hoping for it. My bad, i apologized. Maybe that's a foreign concept to you.

 

[qazplm]

Even without landfall, there will be a Major flooding event in the mid atlantic to NE. A landfall stands a good chance of making this the most significant weather event in the US since Sandy in 2012.

This part. With most models still unsure if this thing will be anything to the US, it just seemed weird to be trumpeting this. Sounded kinda like he was hoping for it. My bad, i apologized. Maybe that's a foreign concept to you.

No, it didn't "sound kinda like he was hoping for it" and no you don't get credit for later apologizing for making a ridiculous statement in the first place. There is nothing about "that part" except straight up facts about a potentially important WEATHER event that has zero to do with climate change since weather does not equal climate. Even now you are using terms like "trumpeting" when that isn't remotely what he is doing.

 

[SCBoiler]

No, it didn't "sound kinda like he was hoping for it" and no you don't get credit for later apologizing for making a ridiculous statement in the first place. There is nothing about "that part" except straight up facts about a potentially important WEATHER event that has zero to do with climate change since weather does not equal climate. Even now you are using terms like "trumpeting" when that isn't remotely what he is doing.

Wait, wait, wait since when did hurricanes not portend that the globe was warming? I must have missed that change. Unsurprisingly, given the fact that the rise in hurricanes never happened. But, I know I used to read articles about how Hurricane Katrina was supposed to show us all how global warming was going to affect us. And global warming was going to create more and stronger storms. I know I've read those articles, I believe some were even in "scientific" journals.

 

[qazplm]

Wait, wait, wait since when did hurricanes not portend that the globe was warming? I must have missed that change. Unsurprisingly, given the fact that the rise in hurricanes never happened. But, I know I used to read articles about how Hurricane Katrina was supposed to show us all how global warming was going to affect us. And global warming was going to create more and stronger storms. I know I've read those articles, I believe some were even in "scientific" journals.

Just so I'm clear...because SOME climate change scientists proposed that hurricane activity might increase, and later it turned out that hurricane activity is complex enough that climate change and global warming may not necessarily mean EVERY year will see above average hurricane activity that means, well what exactly?

Folks like you hold science you don't like to an impossible standard, and science you do like to almost no standard at all. So when actual scientists do what the scientific method is made for, tweaks, changes, updates to models and assumptions and theories, folks like you say "see, they don't know anything" as if not being 100 percent right all of the time makes one 100 percent wrong.

So yeah, some folks thought that global warming would lead to more and stronger hurricanes. Thus far, that's not shown to be correct. Over a longer period of time, it might, then again, global warming might lead to OTHER things that make it harder to sustain hurricanes since hurricanes are a complex probess. A person who was open minded about climate change probably wouldn't make much of this one thing...a person who's already decided that climate change is wrong would probably react like you.

 

[SCBoiler]

Just so I'm clear...because SOME climate change scientists proposed that hurricane activity might increase, and later it turned out that hurricane activity is complex enough that climate change and global warming may not necessarily mean EVERY year will see above average hurricane activity that means, well what exactly?

Folks like you hold science you don't like to an impossible standard, and science you do like to almost no standard at all. So when actual scientists do what the scientific method is made for, tweaks, changes, updates to models and assumptions and theories, folks like you say "see, they don't know anything" as if not being 100 percent right all of the time makes one 100 percent wrong.

So yeah, some folks thought that global warming would lead to more and stronger hurricanes. Thus far, that's not shown to be correct. Over a longer period of time, it might, then again, global warming might lead to OTHER things that make it harder to sustain hurricanes since hurricanes are a complex probess. A person who was open minded about climate change probably wouldn't make much of this one thing...a person who's already decided that climate change is wrong would probably react like you.

Fair enough. Just let me know when they get ONE thing right, and maybe I'll take them more seriously.


Don't give me the lectures about what I believe and how I'm not open-minded. I guarantee my mind is waaay more open than yours. All you ever do is call people who don't agree with you, stupid/crazy/racist/xenophobic et al. I try to have reasonable discussion, and am very honest about what I know and dont know. If you can't tell, my position is pretty simple: the climate changes, deal with it. People that think humans are destroying the planet, and they can fix it have the burden of proof. And as judge of my own beliefs (with much independent study) i conclude the proof is lacking. If I see better proof I will change my mind. Trust me when I say I love this planet, without it, I wouldn't be here. I just don't think I'm destroying it, and haven't heard a reasonable suggestion to try and fix it.

 

[qazplm]

Fair enough. Just let me know when they get ONE thing right, and maybe I'll take them more seriously.


Don't give me the lectures about what I believe and how I'm not open-minded. I guarantee my mind is waaay more open than yours. All you ever do is call people who don't agree with you, stupid/crazy/racist/xenophobic et al. I try to have reasonable discussion, and am very honest about what I know and dont know. If you can't tell, my position is pretty simple: the climate changes, deal with it. People that think humans are destroying the planet, and they can fix it have the burden of proof. And as judge of my own beliefs (with much independent study) i conclude the proof is lacking. If I see better proof I will change my mind. Trust me when I say I love this planet, without it, I wouldn't be here. I just don't think I'm destroying it, and haven't heard a reasonable suggestion to try and fix it.

No, I don't call noodle stupid or crazy, or Gr8, or a couple of other conservatives on here. Because while I think they are wrong, they usually come with some semblance of logical thought. You and a few others on the other hand, rarely do.

 

[kescwi]

"Enviros" may have said hurricanes would get worse, but the science has never been strong in leading to that conclusion. I talked about this earlier in the climate thread.

I am fascinated by weather, climate, and earth science, but I never "cheer" for death and destruction.

Btw - If you still live in SC, the latest model runs show extreme rainfall to the tune of 10+ inches in your region over the next several days. No, and I can't believe I have to say this, I am not cheering for you to get flooded out.

I live in SC, close to the coast, and was hoping you would chime in on this one, I know you follow this type of weather but you're not going to tell me to run to the Teeter for water like guys on TV!

It's has been interesting today, not easily explained, kind of like a snow storm in Indiana with no wind but a little more snow than normal, so when do you call it a blizzard, or tropical storm in our case. Thus far high tide has been the main concern but we got thru that. Peaceful, tropical, rain so far and very enjoyable with a cocktail and cigar on the porch.

 

[BoilerMadness]

But you're a liberal climate change whacko, of course you are cheering for him to get flooded...you spend your entire time lying, but then also hoping that your lies are true.

Admit it!!!

I believe that's called dealing with reality, in your case, and justifiable self-loathing.

 

[Beeazlebub]

I live in SC, close to the coast, and was hoping you would chime in on this one, I know you follow this type of weather but you're not going to tell me to run to the Teeter for water like guys on TV!

It's has been interesting today, not easily explained, kind of like a snow storm in Indiana with no wind but a little more snow than normal, so when do you call it a blizzard, or tropical storm in our case. Thus far high tide has been the main concern but we got thru that. Peaceful, tropical, rain so far and very enjoyable with a cocktail and cigar on the porch.

The worst impact will depend on where the fetch of moisture sets up. Right now, the models have Charleston in the bulls-eye, but that could fluctuate as we get closer to the main event.

The flooding should be similar to a slow-moving tropical system, so enjoy your cocktail(s), but don't underestimate the potential. This will be a doozy.

 

[kescwi]

The worst impact will depend on where the fetch of moisture sets up. Right now, the models have Charleston in the bulls-eye, but that could fluctuate as we get closer to the main event.

The flooding should be similar to a slow-moving tropical system, so enjoy your cocktail(s), but don't underestimate the potential. This will be a doozy.

Oh don't get me wrong, work has been called off by both my wife and me for tomorrow, most are hunkering down, just this is something different and I would guess part of the bigger picture you argue about on this board.

Edit, and yes, I will enjoy my cocktails and cigars, best way to enjoy any storm.

 

[BoilerMadness]

Just so I'm clear...because SOME climate change scientists proposed that hurricane activity might increase, and later it turned out that hurricane activity is complex enough that climate change and global warming may not necessarily mean EVERY year will see above average hurricane activity that means, well what exactly?

Folks like you hold science you don't like to an impossible standard, and science you do like to almost no standard at all. So when actual scientists do what the scientific method is made for, tweaks, changes, updates to models and assumptions and theories, folks like you say "see, they don't know anything" as if not being 100 percent right all of the time makes one 100 percent wrong.

So yeah, some folks thought that global warming would lead to more and stronger hurricanes. Thus far, that's not shown to be correct. Over a longer period of time, it might, then again, global warming might lead to OTHER things that make it harder to sustain hurricanes since hurricanes are a complex probess. A person who was open minded about climate change probably wouldn't make much of this one thing...a person who's already decided that climate change is wrong would probably react like you.

You blindly accept anything that supports CC and don't give credence to anything or anyone, that questions it. Where is your open mind? Oh, that's right, you don't have one....