Big Ten Tournament possibilities

[TC4THREE]

So we should be concerned with who finishes 8/9 and 4/5.

Looking at 8/9 possibilities:

7. Iowa 9-8 (hosts PSU)
8. Michigan 9-8 (finishes at Nebraska)
9. Illinois 8-9 (finishes at Rutgers)

H2H tiebreakers:

Iowa 1-0 vs Michigan
Michigan 1-1 vs Illinois
Illinois 2-0 vs Iowa

Based on this, it seems likely that it will be Michigan/Illinois in the 8/9 game because Iowa will be favored to beat Penn State at home. If Iowa loses, all bets are off though. I don't think Ohio State can elevate from 10 because they lose the H2H tiebreaker to Illinois.

Now the 4/5 possibilities:

2. Wisconsin 11-6 (hosts Minnesota)
3. Minnesota 11-6 (at Wisconsin)
4. Maryland 11-6 (hosts MSU)
5. MSU 10-7 (at Maryland)
6. Northwestern 10-7 (vs Purdue)

H2H tiebreakers
Wisconsin/Minnesota can't tie so it doesn't matter.
Wisconsin has H2H on Maryland.
MSU has H2H on Wisconsin.
Northwestern has H2H on Wisconsin.
Minnesota and Maryland split 1-1 so I think Minnesota would have tiebreaker by beating us.
MSU has H2H on Minnesota via the 2-0 sweep.
Minnesota has H2H on Northwestern.
MSU would have to beat Maryland and therefore have the tiebreaker in order for them to tie.
Northwestern has no tiebreaker except for Wisconsin.

So this is a big mess and none of these teams are facing opponents that we can assume anything for (since 4 of them are facing one another and the other is playing us).

We know that winner of Wisconsin and Minnesota can't drop to 4th place so I'm cheering for Wisconsin there because Minnesota is the hottest team and also the only team in that group to have beaten us so far.

I'm also cheering for Maryland vs MSU because I don't want to face Maryland early in the tournament. If they beat MSU then they will elevate to either 2 or 3 depending on who wins the Wisky/Minnesota game.

Should MSU beat Maryland, they should elevate to #3 because they will have tiebreakers on all 3 teams currently ahead of them and would be tied with 2 of them.

So I think we can conclude that the winners of the Minnesota/Wisky and Maryland/MSU games will be in the other half of the bracket and the losers will be the 4/5 unless Northwestern beats us and displaces a losing Wisconsin. I think that is right unless I missed some tricky multi-team possibilities.

 

[New Pal Boiler]

So we should be concerned with who finishes 8/9 and 4/5.

Looking at 8/9 possibilities:

7. Iowa 9-8 (hosts PSU)
8. Michigan 9-8 (finishes at Nebraska)
9. Illinois 8-9 (finishes at Rutgers)

H2H tiebreakers:

Iowa 1-0 vs Michigan
Michigan 1-1 vs Illinois
Illinois 2-0 vs Iowa

Based on this, it seems likely that it will be Michigan/Illinois in the 8/9 game because Iowa will be favored to beat Penn State at home. If that happens, all bets are off though. I don't think Ohio State can elevate from 10 because they lose the H2H tiebreaker to Illinois.

Now the 4/5 possibilities:

2. Wisconsin 11-6 (hosts Minnesota)
3. Minnesota 11-6 (at Wisconsin)
4. Maryland 11-6 (hosts MSU)
5. MSU 10-7 (at Maryland)
6. Northwestern 10-7 (vs Purdue)

H2H tiebreakers
Wisconsin/Minnesota can't tie so it doesn't matter.
Wisconsin has H2H on Maryland.
MSU has H2H on Wisconsin.
Northwestern has H2H on Wisconsin.
Minnesota and Maryland split 1-1 so I think Minnesota would have tiebreaker by beating us.
MSU has H2H on Minnesota via the 2-0 sweep.
Minnesota has H2H on Northwestern.
MSU would have to beat Maryland and therefore have the tiebreaker in order for them to tie.
Northwestern has no tiebreaker except for Wisconsin.

So this is a big mess and none of these teams are facing opponents that we can assume anything for (since 4 of them are facing one another and the other is playing us).

We know that winner of Wisconsin and Minnesota can't drop to 4th place so I'm cheering for Wisconsin there because Minnesota is the hottest team and also the only team in that group to have beaten us so far.

I'm also cheering for Maryland vs MSU because I don't want to face Maryland early in the tournament. If they beat MSU then they will elevate to either 2 or 3 depending on who wins the Wisky/Minnesota game.

Should MSU beat Maryland, they should elevate to #3 because they will have tiebreakers on all 3 teams currently ahead of them and would be tied with 2 of them.

So I think we can conclude that the winners of the Minnesota/Wisky and Maryland/MSU games will be in the other half of the bracket and the losers will be the 4/5 unless Northwestern beats us and displaces a losing Wisconsin. I think that is right unless I missed some tricky multi-team possibilities.

Got any more brain busters?