"A key concern about the debt forgiveness program is its inflationary impact in an environment where inflation has been persistently elevated for over a year.
However, at the same time, this is also likely to be inflationary. Expectation of additional debt forgiveness programs evokes a moral hazard incentive for college students to take out more loans and for universities to increase tuition rates.1 To the extent that inflation is inherently persistent, any initial price level increase would also lead to sustained inflation over the near future. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that the Fed will need to raise rates by an additional 50 to 75 basis points to counteract the Biden debt cancellation proposal.
Everyone wants to know why inflation is “stickier” than expect, it’s because Biden keeps handing out free candy
However, at the same time, this is also likely to be inflationary. Expectation of additional debt forgiveness programs evokes a moral hazard incentive for college students to take out more loans and for universities to increase tuition rates.1 To the extent that inflation is inherently persistent, any initial price level increase would also lead to sustained inflation over the near future. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that the Fed will need to raise rates by an additional 50 to 75 basis points to counteract the Biden debt cancellation proposal.
Student Debt Cancellation Raises the Price Level and Inflation
A key concern about the Biden administration's debt forgiveness program is its inflationary impact. This post provides a back-of-the-envelope calculation of this impact, based on a specific view of the federal budget and how it interacts with monetary and fiscal policies.
www.richmondfed.org
Everyone wants to know why inflation is “stickier” than expect, it’s because Biden keeps handing out free candy
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