I projected the final standings based on who will be favored the remaining games. I then seeded the B1G teams accordingly. Purdue comes in as the 4th seed at 12-6 (losing 2 road games, winning 2 home games).
Seeds go: 1) Wisconsin 2) Maryland 3) Michigan State 4) Purdue 5) Iowa 6) Ohio St. 7) IU 8) Illinois 9) Michigan 10)Minnesota 11)Nebraska 12) Northwestern 13) Penn St. 14) Rutgers.
This has us with a double bye playing the winner of Pennstate/NW>Iowa. Assuming it is Iowa that wins that 2nd round game, this becomes a VERY important game for Purdue. Using the RPI wizard and everything played out to the favorites in the regular B1G season, a win against Iowa then loss to Wisconsin in round 4 would make Purdue's overall record 21-12 with a final RPI of 49. If we lost round 3 to Iowa, we would finish 20-12 with an RPI of 64! Obviously a huge difference....quite possibly the difference in a bid or not. Now, if you change to a win at Michigan State, we go to the 3 seed and them the 4, which would line us up against probable OSU. If Purdue lost in the 3rd round (our first game) of the B1G, we would have a final record of 21-11 and RPI of 50....which I think still puts us in comfortably.
All this said....I think Purdue obviously has to win both home games. But, it probably needs one of @MSU, @OSU or 1st game in B1G (which will be most likely be one of OSU, Iowa or IU) to be dancing. If not, we will be razor thin on the bubble and more than likely out from losing 3 of the last 4.
Seeds go: 1) Wisconsin 2) Maryland 3) Michigan State 4) Purdue 5) Iowa 6) Ohio St. 7) IU 8) Illinois 9) Michigan 10)Minnesota 11)Nebraska 12) Northwestern 13) Penn St. 14) Rutgers.
This has us with a double bye playing the winner of Pennstate/NW>Iowa. Assuming it is Iowa that wins that 2nd round game, this becomes a VERY important game for Purdue. Using the RPI wizard and everything played out to the favorites in the regular B1G season, a win against Iowa then loss to Wisconsin in round 4 would make Purdue's overall record 21-12 with a final RPI of 49. If we lost round 3 to Iowa, we would finish 20-12 with an RPI of 64! Obviously a huge difference....quite possibly the difference in a bid or not. Now, if you change to a win at Michigan State, we go to the 3 seed and them the 4, which would line us up against probable OSU. If Purdue lost in the 3rd round (our first game) of the B1G, we would have a final record of 21-11 and RPI of 50....which I think still puts us in comfortably.
All this said....I think Purdue obviously has to win both home games. But, it probably needs one of @MSU, @OSU or 1st game in B1G (which will be most likely be one of OSU, Iowa or IU) to be dancing. If not, we will be razor thin on the bubble and more than likely out from losing 3 of the last 4.
