This is interesting. I sat in a presentation given by Salim Ismail yesterday and he discussed this. He gave very compelling evidence about the cost per watt of solar energy and the impact that will have as it intersects the price of oil. His view is that the technology behind solar energy accelerates at a logarithmic pace and therefore in about a decade, we will be able to supply nearly the entire world's energy needs from solar.
With the relatively low cost of fracking keeping the price of oil about where it is for a few years, his point about the pipeline was that by the time it would be built, there would no longer be an economic value to transport oil from Canada. He claimed this fiscal reality was why Obama killed the pipeline, not for climate purposes. He went on to say that he has advised the Canadian government of the fact that they should not be planning their economic future based on the contribution of oil.
One particularly interesting point he raised was how much of Russia's economy was based on demand for their natural resources like oil and gas. His view is that the Ukraine was a test run because he believes the Russians are well aware of impact the declining cost of solar energy will have and that they know there will be no way for them to sustain an economy without invading Europe.
He has written a few books and is part of something called the Singularity University and has a pretty impressive background with Yahoo, Google and his own companies. Regardless of your political leanings, I thought his perspective on the future of oil was an interesting one. It would certainly reshape a ton of the geo-political landscape.
He also said the Middle East is "done" and points to the Saudi's selling off oil and collecting cash as an example. I hadn't heard this view point on the Saudi's recent activities. The analysis I've read was related to where they needed the price of oil to be to sustain their government programs (around $110 / barrel) and that if oil didn't climb in price they would be forced to cut programs or run out of cash within about five years.
