2023 Final Four

[mathboy]

Interesting: the 2023 final four is these teams? WTF?

• UConn #4 seed (KenPom says they should have been a 10-seed) <— read this but it’s wrong. (Edited later)
• Florida Atlantic #9 seed
• San Diego State #5 seed
• Miami #4 seed

No #1's, no #2's, and no #3's. WTF?

Okay, so why were the statistics, polls, and talking heads so wrong? How could the selection committee be so far from accurate about which teams were superior? Why are these teams the ones playing for the national championship? How many top recruiting classes will be on display? How many top coaches are involved next weekend?

Maybe, just maybe, a single-game elimination tourney has a hell of a lot more randomness in it than many of us think it does. This year has been the least "chalk" of any year it seems. I could see one of the FF teams being a Cinderella, but all four?

I would have thought that this year's Purdue team would be favored in all of these games if they played these guys on a neutral court.

 

[BoilerJS]

Interesting: the 2023 final four is these teams? WTF?

• UConn #4 seed (KenPom says they should have been a 10-seed)
• Florida Atlantic #9 seed
• San Diego State #5 seed
• Miami #4 seed

No #1's, no #2's, and no #3's. WTF?

Okay, so why were the statistics, polls, and talking heads so wrong? How could the selection committee be so far from accurate about which teams were superior? Why are these teams the ones playing for the national championship? How many top recruiting classes will be on display? How many top coaches are involved next weekend?

Maybe, just maybe, a single-game elimination tourney has a hell of a lot more randomness in it than many of us think it does. This year has been the least "chalk" of any year it seems. I could see one of the FF teams being a Cinderella, but all four?

I would have thought that this year's Purdue team would be favored in all of these games if they played these guys on a neutral court.

Charles Barkley made mention of the one and done tourney as exciting but not producing the true NC.
He got a lot of dirty looks from his counter part talking heads.
It's true though. At minimum a double elimination would be better.

 

[KentuckyBoiler]

Charles Barkley made mention of the one and done tourney as exciting but not producing the true NC.
He got a lot of dirty looks from his counter part talking heads.
It's true though. At minimum a double elimination would be better.

That is why they call it March Madness.

 

[boilermaker75]

Interesting: the 2023 final four is these teams? WTF?

• UConn #4 seed (KenPom says they should have been a 10-seed)
• Florida Atlantic #9 seed
• San Diego State #5 seed
• Miami #4 seed

No #1's, no #2's, and no #3's. WTF?

Okay, so why were the statistics, polls, and talking heads so wrong? How could the selection committee be so far from accurate about which teams were superior? Why are these teams the ones playing for the national championship? How many top recruiting classes will be on display? How many top coaches are involved next weekend?

Maybe, just maybe, a single-game elimination tourney has a hell of a lot more randomness in it than many of us think it does. This year has been the least "chalk" of any year it seems. I could see one of the FF teams being a Cinderella, but all four?

I would have thought that this year's Purdue team would be favored in all of these games if they played these guys on a neutral court.

You run the tournament 10 times you are likely to have 10 different national champions. It is the way it is with 64 teams in a single-elimination tournament with a sport like basketball.

 

[purduedavie]

Charles Barkley made mention of the one and done tourney as exciting but not producing the true NC.
He got a lot of dirty looks from his counter part talking heads.
It's true though. At minimum a double elimination would be better.

It would take forever, one and done is what makes it special.

 

[Gemini95]

Interesting: the 2023 final four is these teams? WTF?

• UConn #4 seed (KenPom says they should have been a 10-seed)
• Florida Atlantic #9 seed
• San Diego State #5 seed
• Miami #4 seed

No #1's, no #2's, and no #3's. WTF?

That's not correct about Uconn/kenpom is it? Thought they were top 10-15?

 

[MetMyWifeAtHarrys]

Charles Barkley made mention of the one and done tourney as exciting but not producing the true NC.
He got a lot of dirty looks from his counter part talking heads.
It's true though. At minimum a double elimination would be better.

He's right. I have been saying the same for years. The only sports that really get the true 'Champion' are the NBA and the NHL with their playoff formats.

 

[Dryfly88]

Interesting: the 2023 final four is these teams? WTF?

• UConn #4 seed (KenPom says they should have been a 10-seed)
• Florida Atlantic #9 seed
• San Diego State #5 seed
• Miami #4 seed

No #1's, no #2's, and no #3's. WTF?

Okay, so why were the statistics, polls, and talking heads so wrong? How could the selection committee be so far from accurate about which teams were superior? Why are these teams the ones playing for the national championship? How many top recruiting classes will be on display? How many top coaches are involved next weekend?

Maybe, just maybe, a single-game elimination tourney has a hell of a lot more randomness in it than many of us think it does. This year has been the least "chalk" of any year it seems. I could see one of the FF teams being a Cinderella, but all four?

I would have thought that this year's Purdue team would be favored in all of these games if they played these guys on a neutral court.

A couple things:

1. Where did you get KenPom with UConn a 10 seed? They have been highly ranked all year and prior to the tournament were very high. No way they were #36 or higher when the tournament started. They were #8 in the NET prior to the tournament.

2. No way to prove it, but I really doubt PU would have been favored against UConn. But even if we were they would beat us. For that matter so would the other 3 IMO.

3. SDSU was #14 in the NET and FAU was #13 so I really don't get the Cinderella thing you are talking about.

What this really tells us is this year there wasn't much difference in the teams in the top 25. These 4 teams that are left are not George Mason.

ACC Champ
#8 NET
#13 NET
#14 NET

 

[Do Dah Day]

It would take forever, one and done is what makes it special.

Which begsd the question: Is special good?

 

[Do Dah Day]

A couple things:

1. Where did you get KenPom with UConn a 10 seed? They have been highly ranked all year and prior to the tournament were very high. No way they were #36 or higher when the tournament started. They were #8 in the NET prior to the tournament.

2. No way to prove it, but I really doubt PU would have been favored against UConn. But even if we were they would beat us. For that matter so would the other 3 IMO.

3. SDSU was #14 in the NET and FAU was #13 so I really don't get the Cinderella thing you are talking about.

What this really tells us is this year there wasn't much difference in the teams in the top 25. These 4 teams that are left are not George Mason.

ACC Champ
#8 NET
#13 NET
#14 NET

Does this validate the NET over most other ranking systems?

 

[Dryfly88]

Does this validate the NET over most other ranking systems?

Good question. I think it's certainly better than what we had before (RPI). I used those because that is a tool the committee uses. I've just heard a lot of Cinderella talk and I just don't agree. I think people see a #9 seed and automatically think Cinderella. Don't really see how you can consider any of these teams that.

We all suspected during the season that there were no "Super" teams and lots of parity in the top 25 or so. I think that is what the tournament has shown to be true.

 

[gd4now]

If I am not mistaken 3 of the 4 teams won their conference regular season and the conference tournament. As I understand it UCONN is the only one that did not.

Guess the regular season conference and tournament are more important than some here would have thought.

 

[northside100]

It would take forever, one and done is what makes it special.

Three games a day, AAU style. Top 8 teams get byes to the SS which is where best of three starts, everyone else plays single elimination to get to that point.

 

[septimusharding]

That's not correct about Uconn/kenpom is it? Thought they were top 10-15?

It's extremely incorrect. According to KenPom, UConn was vastly underseeded. They were 4th in KenPom at the start of the tournament. So if we were seeding by KenPom, UConn would have been a 1-seed.

 

[RossMackey]

He's right. I have been saying the same for years. The only sports that really get the true 'Champion' are the NBA and the NHL with their playoff formats.

Some may disagree, but I say the World Series champion in MLB is legitimate… the NBA winner is as predictable as the sunrise, IMO

The Stanley Cup is far and away the toughest to win.

 

[Boiler Buck]

I would have thought that this year's Purdue team would be favored in all of these games if they played these guys on a neutral court.

Lol. You are kidding I hope.

 

[MetMyWifeAtHarrys]

Some may disagree, but I say the World Series champion in MLB is legitimate… the NBA winner is as predictable as the sunrise, IMO

The Stanley Cup is far and away the toughest to win.

MLB would be much more accurate re: the winner if each round was a best of seven. To have a marathon of a 162 game season be decided in a sprint of a best of three series is ridiculous.

You couldn't be more off base with the NBA winner, lol. Not close.

Cup is up there, as I mentioned for sure.

 

[Pete's Hammer]

Interesting: the 2023 final four is these teams? WTF?

• UConn #4 seed (KenPom says they should have been a 10-seed)
• Florida Atlantic #9 seed
• San Diego State #5 seed
• Miami #4 seed

No #1's, no #2's, and no #3's. WTF?

Okay, so why were the statistics, polls, and talking heads so wrong? How could the selection committee be so far from accurate about which teams were superior? Why are these teams the ones playing for the national championship? How many top recruiting classes will be on display? How many top coaches are involved next weekend?

Maybe, just maybe, a single-game elimination tourney has a hell of a lot more randomness in it than many of us think it does. This year has been the least "chalk" of any year it seems. I could see one of the FF teams being a Cinderella, but all four?

I would have thought that this year's Purdue team would be favored in all of these games if they played these guys on a neutral court.

This is why I put ZERO emphasis on the, made for TV, crap shoot.


There is very little rationale for this tournament for a large percentage of games and its becoming more random on a yearly basis.

So many factors required to win 6 games in a row this time of year. Neutral court games, and systematic parity, neuter normalized statistics.

 

[Wolegib]

If you want the regular season to have any meaning then let the teams go back to playing on their home court like the women do. Currently regular season championships are meaningless! It’s all about what you do in the dance!

What’s the biggest criticism of Painter? He can’t make the final 4. Nobody cares what he or Purdue did during the regular season. It’s all become about the dance!

So what the NCAA needs to do is to do something to give back some importance to the regular season and conference championships.

My suggestion other than allowing teams to play on their home court is to reduce the amount of teams in the big dance rather than expand it to include more teams! By expanding the dance, the regular season becomes less meaningful. By reducing the amount of teams, you give more importance to winning conference championships. I’d eliminate the play in games!

 

[Gman544]

A few non random things that happen in the tournament over the course of time. Izzo makes it to the final four every three years or so. Either Duke under coach K, N Carolina or Kansas win it all at least once every few years. A special group of talented players combined with a great coach can win it all more than once in a short period of time (Villanova and Florida).

The Big Ten does not win the NC. Purdue does not reach the FF. This is not random. For the Big Ten it is over 22 years and 42 for Purdue.

 

[rgarlitz]

It would take forever, one and done is what makes it special.

I agree. It has been very frustrating watching Purdue meltdown in the NCAA Tournament in recent years. But I still love the format of the Big Dance.

 

[mathboy]

Funny thing is that i will bet that none of these schools had highly rated recruiting classes. Maybe UConn? Too lazy to look it up.

 

[Gemini95]

This is why I put ZERO emphasis on the, made for TV, crap shoot.

Yeah, that's why.

 

[PUBV]

Interesting: the 2023 final four is these teams? WTF?

• UConn #4 seed (KenPom says they should have been a 10-seed) <— read this but it’s wrong. (Edited later)
• Florida Atlantic #9 seed
• San Diego State #5 seed
• Miami #4 seed

No #1's, no #2's, and no #3's. WTF?

Okay, so why were the statistics, polls, and talking heads so wrong? How could the selection committee be so far from accurate about which teams were superior? Why are these teams the ones playing for the national championship? How many top recruiting classes will be on display? How many top coaches are involved next weekend?

Maybe, just maybe, a single-game elimination tourney has a hell of a lot more randomness in it than many of us think it does. This year has been the least "chalk" of any year it seems. I could see one of the FF teams being a Cinderella, but all four?

I would have thought that this year's Purdue team would be favored in all of these games if they played these guys on a neutral court.

We Purdue fans seem to be slipping this year. I feel like we start posting these threads about the “gimmicky,” “random,” “I don’t put any stock in” March Madness threads before we flameout in the tourney. 🥸

 

[mathboy]

We Purdue fans seem to be slipping this year. I feel like we start posting these threads about the “gimmicky,” “random,” “I don’t put any stock in” March Madness threads before we flameout in the tourney. 🥸

Look back to before the season started. I’ve contended for a long time, and consistently, that the tourney has far more randomness than many think. It is anything but a precision measure of any given team’s capability.

 

[steakman765]

It’s so random, that’s why #1 seeds lose to 16 seeds so often. There are no excuses for Painter’s miserable tourney performances. He lost to Fairleigh Dickinson.

 

[steakman765]

If you want the regular season to have any meaning then let the teams go back to playing on their home court like the women do. Currently regular season championships are meaningless! It’s all about what you do in the dance!

What’s the biggest criticism of Painter? He can’t make the final 4. Nobody cares what he or Purdue did during the regular season. It’s all become about the dance!

So what the NCAA needs to do is to do something to give back some importance to the regular season and conference championships.

My suggestion other than allowing teams to play on their home court is to reduce the amount of teams in the big dance rather than expand it to include more teams! By expanding the dance, the regular season becomes less meaningful. By reducing the amount of teams, you give more importance to winning conference championships. I’d eliminate the play in games!

They lost to f#cking FDU. That shouldn’t happen no matter where the game is played. Painter sucks.

 

[Pete's Hammer]

Yeah, that's why.

Every year, my man. Every year.

March or bust mentality makes me laugh.

 

[Pete's Hammer]

We Purdue fans seem to be slipping this year. I feel like we start posting these threads about the “gimmicky,” “random,” “I don’t put any stock in” March Madness threads before we flameout in the tourney. 🥸

Regular season has meant much more to me for a long time. I cherish the 20 game grind. I would have said the same thing had we beat Virginia in '18 or won it all this year.

I get it that I'm in the minority.

 

[BoilerUpThenHammerDown]

Tons of rab

Charles Barkley made mention of the one and done tourney as exciting but not producing the true NC.
He got a lot of dirty looks from his counter part talking heads.
It's true though. At minimum a double elimination would be better.

Triple elimination would be interesting

 

[Mobes]

This is why I put ZERO emphasis on the, made for TV, crap shoot.


There is very little rationale for this tournament for a large percentage of games and its becoming more random on a yearly basis.

So many factors required to win 6 games in a row this time of year. Neutral court games, and systematic parity, neuter normalized statistics.

Excuses for Purdue not winning. No one would be complaining if we were in the Final Four, period.

 

[SCBoiler1]

The bottom line is Purdue hasn't been as good as Purdue fans think they have been under Painter. One seed this year and a two seed the year Hass got hurt. Three seed or below every other year under Painter.

This year is the exception but once you get below a two seed the odds of making the FF go way down.

 

[Gemini95]

Every year, my man. Every year.

March or bust mentality makes me laugh.

I believe that you believe this.

 

[Tommaker]

Funny thing is that i will bet that none of these schools had highly rated recruiting classes. Maybe UConn? Too lazy to look it up.

The bigger question; how many McDonalds all Americans in these 4 teams? I'm thinking none.

 

[mathboy]

Excuses for Purdue not winning. No one would be complaining if we were in the Final Four, period.

I agree with your sentiment. I would be celebrating if we had made it, however, my OP was about the complete lack of chalk this year. Not even looking at our specific situation. Let's get past our pity party (me too) and focus on the college basketball world. There has been an earthquake, and we are not the only victims.

Look at how all the blue bloods and highly ranked recruits are all sitting on the couches watching the FF. There are all kinds of 1, 2, and 3 seeded teams asking themselves what went wrong. - just like us! We are not alone in this situation.

The odds the NCAA would have arrived at this low ranked a final four are 0.05%, or so I read from one article. I guess I could make an ancillary point that there are no strategies, no recruits, and no coaches that guarantee a Final Four appearance.

 

[Pete's Hammer]

Excuses for Purdue not winning. No one would be complaining if we were in the Final Four, period.

No further explanation needed on how other people feel.

You may be cool and all but you don't have the ability to read minds. I appreciate the March festivities. It just doesn't mean as much to me.

Winning in Mackey will ALWAYS be the most important memories.......to me.

 

[Pete's Hammer]

I believe that you believe this.

Perfect!

 

[rgarlitz]

No further explanation needed on how other people feel.

You may be cool and all but you don't have the ability to read minds. I appreciate the March festivities. It just doesn't mean as much to me.

Winning in Mackey will ALWAYS be the most important memories.......to me.

I actually understand this really well. March/April is what determines greatness. I get that.

But, I've never been to the NCAA Tornament.

I have been to Mackey when 14,000 people are on their feet and going nuts. I've seen Biggie go for 20/20. I watched the Baby Boilers beat Wisconsin. I was at Purdue during the mid-90s 3-Pete years.

I'd love to see Purdue break through in March. But those Mackey experiences mean a lot to me.

FWIW: I'd love to see Ryan Walters win a natty at Purdue. But, being in Ross-Ade during the early Tiller/Brees/Orton years was something special, too.

 

[BoilerUpThenHammerDown]

Excuses for Purdue not winning. No one would be complaining if we were in the Final Four, period.

I agree with your sentiment. I would be celebrating if we had made it, however, my OP was about the complete lack of chalk this year. Not even looking at our specific situation. Let's get past our pity party (me too) and focus on the college basketball world. There has been an earthquake, and we are not the only victims.

Look at how all the blue bloods and highly ranked recruits are all sitting on the couches watching the FF. There are all kinds of 1, 2, and 3 seeded teams asking themselves what went wrong. - just like us! We are not alone in this situation.

The odds the NCAA would have arrived at this low ranked a final four are 0.05%, or so I read from one article. I guess I could make an ancillary point that there are no strategies, no recruits, and no coaches that guarantee a Final Four appearance.

This is why I put ZERO emphasis on the, made for TV, crap shoot.


There is very little rationale for this tournament for a large percentage of games and its becoming more random on a yearly basis.

So many factors required to win 6 games in a row this time of year. Neutral court games, and systematic parity, neuter normalized statistics.

Except Purdue has been consistently underperforming.

17-14 (54.5% win %) in the tournament under Painter.
If I look at coaches that have won a championship since 2000, the lowest win% is Tony Bennett at 64%. Tom Izzo is at 70% win %.

3 consecutive years of losing to double digit seeds.

 

[Gman544]

All fun, enjoyed those moments too. Purdue has a fine program, but like the Orton fumble, when a chance to be more than "fine" presents itself, Purdue has not been up to the challenge.